22-23 Regression!

[lumbergh]

We should be expecting a better record this year than we had last year. For starters, our #1 defenseman was out for most of last season. Last season's rookies are no longer rookies. We've taken huge steps forward on offense and yet we have the same record we did at this point last year. So what the hell happened? We knew we had some holes on defense and in net and did nothing to correct that.

This is a failure, not a success.

It’s pretty clear that the Kings have lost games and points due to the low quality of goaltending during the first third of the season. If the Kings had even replacement level goaltending from the start, which they do now, they’d almost certainly be among the top three teams in the West.

The team as a whole is deeeeep and vastly improved. The holes are glaring, but let’s give credit where credit is due. The Kings are in very good position to make the playoffs and compete for the division lead. This season so far has been a success.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

This is a failure, not a success.

Do you really sit back and watch the games with the mentality that this season is a failure?

 

[King'sPawn]

Kings 2021-22 season:
20th in Goals for per game
10th in Goals against per game

Kings 2022-23 season (so far):
12th in Goals for per game
22nd in Goals against per game

Their ranking relative to the rest of the league is actually a net minus-4 (plus-8 in offense, minus-12 in defense).

Performance of <25 players (I'll also throw Kempe in here since he's now the pinnacle of the Kings development, even though he turned 25 at the start of last season):
Adrian Kempe
2021-22 season - 54 points in 78 games, .69 points/game
2022-23 season - 45 points in 58 games, .78 points/game (full season of 64 points)

Arthur Kaliyev
2021-22 season - 27 points in 80 games, .34 points/game
2022-23 season - 20 points in 38 games, .53 points/game (full season of 43 points)

Blake Lizotte
2021-22 season - 24 points in 70 games, .34 points/game
2022-23 season - 28 points in 58 games, .48 points/game (full season of 39 points)

Carl Grundstrom
2021-22 season - 15 points in 54 games, .28 points/game
2022-23 season - 10 points in 37 games, .27 points/game (full season of 22 points)

Rasmus Kupari
2021-22 season - 13 points in 57 games, .23 points/game
2022-23 season - 9 points in 42 games, .21 points/game (full season of 17 points)

Quinton Byfield
2021-22 season - 10 points in 40 games, .25 points/game
2022-23 season - 12 points in 29 games, .41 points/game (full season of 34 points)

Gabriel Vilardi
2021-22 season - 7 points in 25 games, .28 points/game
2022-23 season - 31 points in 48 games, .65 points/game (full season of 53 points)

Lias Andersson
2021-22 season - 2 points in 20 games, .1 point/game
2022-23 season - 0 points in 1 game, 0 points/game

Alex Turcotte
2021-22 season - 0 points in 8 games, 0 points/game
2022-23 season - 0 points in 4 games, 0 points/game

Samuel Fagemo
2021-22 season - 0 points in 4 games, 0 points/game
2022-23 season - 3 points in 9 games, 0.33 points/game (full season of 27 points)

Jaret Anderson-Dolan
2021-22 season - 0 points in 7 games, 0 points/game
2022-23 season - 11 points in 40 games, .28 points/game (full season of 23 points)

Vilardi is the biggest riser of .37 points/game from last season. But his .65 points-per-game, league-wide (among forwards), is good for 131st among forwards. If the top scorers were equally distributed among all 32 teams, that would make him the 4th-5th best forward on the team... a second liner. He's currently the 6th highest scoring forward on the team; this shows the depth of the Kings scoring that he's benefiting from.

Adrian Kempe's .78 points-per-game is good for 91st among forwards in the league. Spread around the league like Vilardi, that would put Kempe in the low-end of the second-best forwards on a team. So, while Kempe's production is that of a top-line forward, your team is likely not that good if he's the second-leading scorer on the team. This is a good reference point, because Kempe is the third-leading scorer on the team and the Kings are in a playoff position.

I'm looking at scoring rate this way to compare the performance of the developing players relative to the rest of the league, and where they actually sit.

The point is, with developing players and leaning more on offense, the team itself is still largely buoyed by veterans. Using the top performers on the team right now, Vilardi and Kempe: waiting 6-8 years for players to compete in top-6 production means you'll finally have top-line players from 24-26 years old.

However, this page also cites the expected peak performance: A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

Rob Vollman summarizes this quite well in his book Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics: “Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35.”

So the current setup is currently setting players to hit their peak just in time to start expecting a decline. By the way... Rob Vollman, who discusses this model cited in the quote above, is the Director of Analytics for the Kings. So even their own director of analytics is expecting Kempe, Vilardi, etc to start declining shortly.

What does it all mean?

It depends what you make of it, which is on brand for most of the knucklehead gatekeepers of this forum. But to me, it shows the organization:
- has sacrificed more defense for an increase in offense
- is showing bouts of first-round picks producing and benefiting from the increase in offense
- has admitted it prefers slow-boiling prospects; however, by the time they produce at a rate that's competing for top-six with the rest of the league, we can expect a decline in production shortly thereafter.

I'm glad that Byfield is getting more top line ice time. And Kempe's production is encouraging (although he's riding a 6-game point streak, which I think he's only done once before). By and large, though, the record and results are mediocre compared to last season, which had a significant number of injuries to defense.

The Kings just haven't pushed the growth of their forwards as fast and well as they should, despite the increase in offense. They had to take a major hit in defense and outsource the offense with the acquisition of Fiala.

The mixing of prospects with vets is the right step, but these "kid" lines have to stop.

Of course, this is all my opinion. I'm sure it will be misused or taken out of context by the same dishonest shitheads like always.

 

[Sol]

I think the people who think the Kings have taken a step forward are the same people who can never argue in good faith. It’s a fruitless conversation. The Kings are sure scoring goals but the defense/goaltending is putrid. Edler is garbage, Durzi sucks on LD. The Offense got better but the goaltending and defense got worse.

As KP said. Too many shitheads who will only look at the offense and the weaker division will use that as a reference to the Kings being a better team than last year.

KINGS 2021-2022

KINGS 2022-NOW

Remember, the Kings are pretty much at the same spot they were last year all the while they added Fiala. Youth now older.

Kings are stagnating. I'd say stagnation is regression especially when the projection isn't being met at all.

I legit mean it when I said Todd and Blake would be out of a job if Fiala wasn't here.

 

[Surf Nutz]

We should be expecting a better record this year than we had last year. For starters, our #1 defenseman was out for most of last season. Last season's rookies are no longer rookies. We've taken huge steps forward on offense and yet we have the same record we did at this point last year. So what the hell happened? We knew we had some holes on defense and in net and did nothing to correct that.

This is a failure, not a success.

Judgement is passed at the end of the season, not yet.

Vilardi and Kaliyev on the 4th line, Spence and Bjornfot not getting a sniff, Clarke beating up on children, dressing 4 RHD on a nightly basis, three 3rd string goalies, Byfield still trying to figure things out, Turcotte still injured, yeah...

But Fiala's sexy moves that have made absolutely zero difference to the team's results are somehow painting a rosier picture in some minds - which just goes to show how much some people misinterpret more offense for better hockey.

We would be groveling next to the Ducks if not for KeFi.

You made this thread because you’re busy? Maybe rather than attempt to agitate actual Kings fans with your bad faith arguments, you can spend your “limited” amount of time annoying fans that think Todd sucks. Seems like time better spent. Just find it funny you can’t seem to carry that energy over there. Maybe you’re afraid of getting lambasted by the collective that actually know that Todd is at best a mediocre coach. Only in your eyes and a select few he isn’t which is why you hide here.

What would suck is if there were no differing opinions on this board.
This is not what we used to call an election.
It is not a Court room either so not sure why you harp on bad faith.
People have free speech and different perceptions.
It's not personal either or at least not for me.
Maybe you should try this approach instead of name calling and insults sullying your solid arguments and illustrations.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

It is not a Court room either so not sure why you harp on bad faith.

It's the only saying he knows yet he doesn't even know how use it properly...let him have it.

If you take that from him, he'll have nothing left but to call you a straw man. He oozes originality.

 

[BigBrown]

I wasn't optimistic about the Kings chances to repeat last season. Seemed like everything went right for them and they were ahead of schedule.

They're very deep on the forward side. Very happy about Fiala being as good as advertised, Vilardi finding his game and Kempe having another banger of a season.

Still question marks on the back end and in goal.

Rome wasn't built in one day so I'm happy they're at least keeping pace for now. If they get decent goaltending I think this team is decidedly better than last seasons team. That's looking like a big if though.

 

[bland]

You don't think our leading scorer has contributed to some team success? The team was bottom 3 in goal saves above expected for the first 30 games of the season.

Look at the standings. Look at the roster make up, use your experience watching the game to project the most likely outcomes to the season.

Borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. That's what they accomplished with the Fiala trade. The team is loaded with offensive wingers on the cusp of breaking through, yet our teams managerial staff traded two prime assets for a proven threat to improve the team now.

Except the team isn't better now, is it? They have the exact same record with Fiala as without him last year. You could just as easily - and more realistically - argue that the trade has done more harm than good if the goal is to contend for a Cup.

Expectations were raised on a team loaded with kids who aren't ready to contend and some older players on their way out of the league in the near future. A team coming out of a rebuild it begrudgingly accepted that has a bottom tier top line center, awful goaltending, mismatched blueliners and next to no wingers capable of closing out games. Boy, we sure score more goals though.

A cursory look at the roster, the players ready to step in and the players who may have plateaued would tell you that the only thing they needed less than an expensive scoring winger is another RHD.

Yet no RHDs have been moved and a team is icing high level prospects on the 4th line or scratching them ouright because there is nowhere to play them except to pigeonhole them into the spots meant best for the kinds of role players who would actually help the older players win now.

So go ahead and enjoy Fiala's outright spectacular ability. I do, he is incredible to watch. But don't kid yourself for a second that it made the team better.

The best route was always to let the kids develop in the secondary offensuve roster spots, lean on the fading vets, and bring in bottom sixers to insulate the kids instead of demanding.that they play out of position in roles they aren't suited for or capable of thriving in. If that meant another losing season or two, fine. They would be better for it in the near future.

 

[Surf Nutz]

It's the only saying he knows yet he doesn't even know how use it properly...let him have it.

If you take that from him, he'll have nothing left but to call you a straw man. He oozes originality.

I am not taking sides.

You guys both make good points but it decomposes when it gets too personal.

 

[bland]

Judgement is passed at the end of the season, not yet.

We would be groveling next to the Ducks if not for KeFi.

What would suck is if there were no differing opinions on this board.
This is not what we used to call an election.
It is not a Court room either so not sure why you harp on bad faith.
People have free speech and different perceptions.
It's not personal either or at least not for me.
Maybe you should try this approach instead of name calling and insults sullying your solid arguments and illustrations.

Everybody has an equal right to their opinion, but no, not all opinions are equal.

I picture you aZ a trench coat filled with 4 year oldZ Ztacked on top of each other all arguing to get their point acroZZ, and the one with the fake muZtache gets to hit the Zubmit button.

Zullied enough?

 

[Surf Nutz]

Look at the standings. Look at the roster make up, use your experience watching the game to project the most likely outcomes to the season.

Borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. That's what they accomplished with the Fiala trade. The team is loaded with offensive wingers on the cusp of breaking through, yet our teams managerial staff traded two prime assets for a proven threat to improve the team now.

Except the team isn't better now, is it? They have the exact same record with Fiala as without him last year. You could just as easily - and more realistically - argue that the trade has done more harm than good if the goal is to contend for a Cup.

Expectations were raised on a team loaded with kids who aren't ready to contend and some older players on their way out of the league in the near future. A team coming out of a rebuild it begrudgingly accepted that has a bottom tier top line center, awful goaltending, mismatched blueliners and next to no wingers capable of closing out games. Boy, we sure score more goals though.

A cursory look at the roster, the players ready to step in and the players who may have plateaued would tell you that the only thing they needed less than an expensive scoring winger is another RHD.

Yet no RHDs have been moved and a team is icing high level prospects on the 4th line or scratching them ouright because there is nowhere to play them except to pigeonhole them into the spots meant best for the kinds of role players who would actually help the older players win now.

So go ahead and enjoy Fiala's outright spectacular ability. I do, he is incredible to watch. But don't kid yourself for a second that it made the team better.

The best route was always to let the kids develop in the secondary offensuve roster spots, lean on the fading vets, and bring in bottom sixers to insulate the kids instead of demanding.that they play out of position in roles they aren't suited for or capable of thriving in. If that meant another losing season or two, fine. They would be better for it in the near future.

I believe it starts above Blake's level with a mandate to reupholster what you can do but always have the springs to be in the playoffs.
This is why Blake makes the moves he does from acquisitions to development to coaching and who plays where and how often.
We got a great deal on Fiala and got rid of a potential non-signer in the process.
You make that seat filling deal every time and address other areas that bubble up problematically as you go along adjusting course with a stronger motor installed.
I understand your valid position, but it is just not how the Kings organization is run from the top down.
This caveat should be noted or disagreed with.

 

[Surf Nutz]

Everybody has an equal right to their opinion, but no, not all opinions are equal.

I picture you aZ a trench coat filled with 4 year oldZ Ztacked on top of each other all arguing to get their point acroZZ, and the one with the fake muZtache gets to hit the Zubmit button.

Zullied enough?

Pretty weird references, and hard to really understand, so I am gonna say no.

But Zorro fans may disagree

 

[Sol]

Look I mean this real unedited photo of Blake

Judgement is passed at the end of the season, not yet.

We would be groveling next to the Ducks if not for KeFi.

What would suck is if there were no differing opinions on this board.
This is not what we used to call an election.
It is not a Court room either so not sure why you harp on bad faith.
People have free speech and different perceptions.
It's not personal either or at least not for me.
Maybe you should try this approach instead of name calling and insults sullying your solid arguments and illustrations.

Lmao yes because Axl is known to provide arguments. Try paying attention brotato. and Im 99 percent sure you're axl's alt.

 

[Surf Nutz]

Look I mean this real unedited photo of Blake

Lmao yes because Axl is known to provide arguments. Try paying attention brotato. and Im 99 percent sure you're axl's alt.

You are trippin Sol!

 

[kilowatt]

Do you really sit back and watch the games with the mentality that this season is a failure?

I said it’s a failure that we are not better this season than last season, not that this season is a failure. You can have success without meeting all of your goals. And there’s still time for us to exceed last year’s total too. But that doesn’t change the fact that, 70% of the way through the season, we’re exactly where we were a year ago.

 

[JTeller97]

Look at the standings. Look at the roster make up, use your experience watching the game to project the most likely outcomes to the season.

Borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. That's what they accomplished with the Fiala trade. The team is loaded with offensive wingers on the cusp of breaking through, yet our teams managerial staff traded two prime assets for a proven threat to improve the team now.

Except the team isn't better now, is it? They have the exact same record with Fiala as without him last year. You could just as easily - and more realistically - argue that the trade has done more harm than good if the goal is to contend for a Cup.

Expectations were raised on a team loaded with kids who aren't ready to contend and some older players on their way out of the league in the near future. A team coming out of a rebuild it begrudgingly accepted that has a bottom tier top line center, awful goaltending, mismatched blueliners and next to no wingers capable of closing out games. Boy, we sure score more goals though.

A cursory look at the roster, the players ready to step in and the players who may have plateaued would tell you that the only thing they needed less than an expensive scoring winger is another RHD.

Yet no RHDs have been moved and a team is icing high level prospects on the 4th line or scratching them ouright because there is nowhere to play them except to pigeonhole them into the spots meant best for the kinds of role players who would actually help the older players win now.

So go ahead and enjoy Fiala's outright spectacular ability. I do, he is incredible to watch. But don't kid yourself for a second that it made the team better.

The best route was always to let the kids develop in the secondary offensuve roster spots, lean on the fading vets, and bring in bottom sixers to insulate the kids instead of demanding.that they play out of position in roles they aren't suited for or capable of thriving in. If that meant another losing season or two, fine. They would be better for it in the near future.

I think your criticism of the management of some prospects is warranted I just really don't understand your gripe is with Fiala specifically and not a true clog with someone like Iafallo. I don't see anyone in the farm system at forward outside of Byfield that will come close to what Fiala is. It's also not like we mortgaged the future to get him, we traded a 1st in the 20's and our 4th best RD prospect that might've left for free. I still strongly disagree about the team not being better, again if they get average goaltending at the beginning of the season their point projection would be much higher. I think that's a simple fact given that Copley is 17-4 with a 906 sv% which is still pretty poor.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

I said it’s a failure that we are not better this season than last season, not that this season is a failure. You can have success without meeting all of your goals. And there’s still time for us to exceed last year’s total too. But that doesn’t change the fact that, 70% of the way through the season, we’re exactly where we were a year ago.

What were your expectations coming into this year? Because if you were one of the 'regressors', doesn't that equate to this season being a success thus far?

 

[Kurrilino]

View attachment 654765

I'd comment on this topic over in the main thread, but I don't have that capability.

I bet this same dude above was predicting the Kings to 'regress' this season but yet now he's laughing that they don't have a better record than last year at this time. (lolz, spit out my coffee)

I think people also forget that we had absolute dogshit goaltending for the first 30 games this year (not an issue last year) and imagine what our record might look like if that wasn't the case.

I would say this is a thing of perception.

We could argue that the Western got even weaker if that is even possible.
Calgary is facing the question of rebuild or creating a retirement home.
St.Louis sold their team and heads into rebuild.
The predators are done and cruising for a rebuild.

All teams in the Western would not be in a playoff spot in the eastern and fight for Wildcard.

With that in mind, someone could argue having the same points, it's a step backwards.

But in my humble opinion all that doesn't matter, since we are not ready to compete anyways

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I would say this is a thing of perception.

We could argue that the Western got even weaker if that is even possible.
Calgary is facing the question of rebuild or creating a retirement home.
St.Louis sold their team and heads into rebuild.
The predators are done and cruising for a rebuild.

All teams in the Western would not be in a playoff spot in the eastern and fight for Wildcard.

With that in mind, someone could argue having the same points, it's a step backwards.

But in my humble opinion all that doesn't matter, since we are not ready to compete anyways

Calgary was a cup contender favorite......

 

[Kurrilino]

So the current setup is currently setting players to hit their peak just in time to start expecting a decline. By the way... Rob Vollman, who discusses this model cited in the quote above, is the Director of Analytics for the Kings. So even their own director of analytics is expecting Kempe, Vilardi, etc to start declining shortly.

This is not what he said.
His statement was that players enter their prime around 25-26 and when reaching age of 30 there is a chance of decline. This decline can become a cliff when reaching 34-36.

Kempe just reached his prime, which means he is a 30 goal scorer for the next 4-5 years.
Vilardi didn't even reach his peak yet and can easily become a 30 goal scorer

My only concern is the sacrifice of the youngsters for veteran reunion tour

 

[King'sPawn]

This is not what he said.
His statement was that players enter their prime around 25-26 and when reaching age of 30 there is a chance of decline. This decline can become a cliff when reaching 34-36.

Kempe just reached his prime, which means he is a 30 goal scorer for the next 4-5 years.
Vilardi didn't even reach his peak yet and can easily become a 30 goal scorer

My only concern is the sacrifice of the youngsters for veteran reunion tour

Rob Vollman summarizes this quite well in his book Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics: “Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35.”

That's literally what is said.

Kempe just hit his prime because it's taking the Kings 7-8 years to churn players into top line forwards.

 

[kilowatt]

What were your expectations coming into this year? Because if you were one of the 'regressors', doesn't that equate to this season being a success thus far?

I wasn’t in the camp that the Kings would or should regress, but I thought there was a chance they could. My expectations for this team this year were to compete for the division title, win a playoff round, and finish better than they did last season. They’re in the mix for #1, we’ll wait to see on #2, and they’re a little behind the curve on #3.

I thought they might regress because we brought back Edler and because Quick and Petersen — especially Petersen after last year, I thought we might get one last good year out of Quick — were regressing hard.

I expected them to take steps forward because of the Fiala acquisition, because of hiring Hiller, and because I thought Kaliyev would play a much bigger role this season than last season.

We’ve done way better offensively than I expected and way worse defensively than I expected, but shockingly we’ve been worse defensively than we’ve been good offensively.

I’m certainly not saying that this season is a failure in totality, there have been lots of good and lots of bad. But the goal every year should be to improve upon the year before. At that, we are currently failing.

 

[kilowatt]

It’s pretty clear that the Kings have lost games and points due to the low quality of goaltending during the first third of the season. If the Kings had even replacement level goaltending from the start, which they do now, they’d almost certainly be among the top three teams in the West.

The team as a whole is deeeeep and vastly improved. The holes are glaring, but let’s give credit where credit is due. The Kings are in very good position to make the playoffs and compete for the division lead. This season so far has been a success.

Of course. Lots of credit where it’s due, especially in the forward roster construction (even if I’d do a few things differently as coach). I don’t even want to know where we could’ve been years ago with Hiller at the helm with the man advantage.

But that doesn’t change the fact that Quick can’t make a save, Edler can’t skate, and Durzi can’t play defense.

What scares me the most is that typically, in the playoffs, you can’t outscore your defensive troubles. Bad goalies get exposed, soft defenses get picked apart. I don’t see our roster, especially our defense and goaltending, as being built for the playoffs.

 

[FeartheFur]

It’s time to make a trade

 

[Herby]

That's literally what is said.

Kempe just hit his prime because it's taking the Kings 7-8 years to churn players into top line forwards.

Been trying to say this for years, it shouldn't take this long for 1st round picks to become players. It's so funny that so many don't seem to get it because the Kings most successful era of hockey was only about a decade ago, and it was on the backs of a bunch of players who made their marks early. Doughty and Brown were NHL'ers at 18, Kopitar was 19. Justin Williams (19), Mike Richards(20) and Jeff Carter(20) all spent no time in the AHL other than playoff runs after their junior seasons ended. The only one of those players who spent significant time in AHL was Brown and that was only because of the lockout.

Someone in the other thread said the Kings plan for Turcotte was to let him marinate until Kopitar's contract ended after next season, that would mean he wouldn't play in the NHL regularly until his **SIXTH** season since being drafted. We are talking about a #5 OA pick, all the while taking a physical beating in the AHL, which is all to common for the young players in this organization.

Another problem with this path is, what do you do when the players contract expires when he is 25,26,27 and now you suddenly have to pay him until he's in his mid 30's. That is why so many teams are signing these guys at 21 and 22 because they get their cake and eat it to, they get the longer term, smaller cap hit deals and also get out of it when the player is 29-31 instead of 33-35.