Speculation: 2025 RFA Class and offer sheets

[Lunatik]

Do we know if the contract dollar levels, that determine compensation, will be increased for this year’s RFA class?

they always go up... check out the post just before yours for estimations.

 

[Fatass]

they always go up... check out the post just before yours for estimations.

Thanks. And with how successful the Blues have been with their two RFA offer sheet signings from last summer, hopefully there will be more clubs doing the same.

 

[Lunatik]

Thanks. And with how successful the Blues have been with their two RFA offer sheet signings from last summer, hopefully there will be more clubs doing the same.

no problem... I knew I was curious where the thresholds could be, so I assumed others would be too... and you happened to ask as I reposted haha.

 

[waitin425]

2025

Ottawa is going to clean the Leafs in 5 games. And I hate both teams equally.

 

[Fatass]

Ottawa is going to clean the Leafs in 5 games. And I hate both teams equally.

.

 

[McShogun99]

Blues need to pull a reverse uno and revenge offer sheet Bouchard.

 

[FiveTacos]

Imagine the Leafs offering Knies 4.5 x 3 and another club come in at 9 x 5? The happiness of where one is playing factor goes bye bye.

Problem is then you've got a severely overpaid player. And it's not even long enough term to where you say oh well at least the last three years will be market value. You spend assets to get an overpaid non superstar and walk him to UFA.

That seems the classic sort of deal that ends with fans of the team that signs him spending 3 years here justifying how even though he didn't pan out fully it was actually worth it and he's not really overpaid by much and he's really much better than his numbers say and shut up you're just jealous ... and then finally a few years later when he gets salary dumped they never speak of him again.

 

[horner]

With Holloway success we might see more offer sheets in the future.

Evan Bouchard
Noah Dobson
Matthew Knies
Luke Hughes
JJ Peterka
Gabriel Vilardi
Mason McTavish
Marco Rossi
Dmitri Voronkov

Who do you pick? I really like Knies and Voronkov.

As a leaf fan
Luke Hughes
Dobson
McTavish

 

[horner]

Bruins should offer sheet Knies. 7 x 8.25 per

Compensation would be a 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks.

Leafs will match as a leaf fan

 

[All Mod Cons]

Ottawa is going to clean the Leafs in 5 games. And I hate both teams equally.

f*** me dude, can you stop turning every thread into a Leafs thread. You Habs fans. Sheesh

 

[JuJu Mobb]

f*** me dude, can you stop turning every thread into a Leafs thread. You Habs fans. Sheesh

He doesn't represent the rest of us. He's annoying.

 

[captainpaxil]

Rossi could be interesting to me as a flyers fan

 

[EquivalentStay]

1967

Rent free, as usual, your team is on a heater and playing well, and this is what you're busy thinking about lmao

 

[waitin425]

Rent free, as usual, your team is on a heater and playing well, and this is what you're busy thinking about lmao

I have a big brain. Can think about my team while dismissing ridiculous leaf fans.

 

[byrath]

I'm reposting this as @Gaylord Q Tinkledink caught a mistake in that the 4 first rounder can happen over a 5 year span.

Just a reminder to everyone, we do not know what the RFA Offer sheet thresholds are yet for offer sheets this summer.

From the summer of 2022 to summer of 2023 compensation rose 2.07%, while the cap rose 1.2%.
From the summer of 2023 to summer of 2024 compensation rose 6.35%, while the cap rose 5.11%.

If we assume another 6.35% increase (I think it will be more since the cap is rising 7.85%) teh thresholds would be:

Low End	High End	Compensation
Min	1,607,662	None
1,607,663	2,435,853	3rd in 2026
2,435,854	4,871,709	2nd in 2026
4,871,710	7,307,562	1st and 3rd in 2026
7,307,563	9,743,418	1st, 2nd and 3rd in 2026
9,743,419	12,179,274	1st in 2027 and 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 2026
12,179,275	Max	Four 1st round picks from 2026-2030

Thanks for posting that, first post I ever bookmarked Being able to offer almost 10mil at the cost of a single 1st is wild.

 

[byrath]

Leafs will match as a leaf fan

7 years would make the compensation 2 1sts + 2nd +3rd, does that change your mind?

 

[Lunatik]

Thanks for posting that, first post I ever bookmarked Being able to offer almost 10mil at the cost of a single 1st is wild.

the actual thresholds will be announced in the latter half of May most likely. Last year it was May 31 and in 2022 it was May 18... but I appreciate your thanks

 

[horner]

7 years would make the compensation 2 1sts + 2nd +3rd, does that change your mind?

No

 

[mouser]

Just a reminder to everyone, we do not know what the RFA Offer sheet thresholds are yet for offer sheets this summer.

From the summer of 2022 to summer of 2023 compensation rose 2.07%, while the cap rose 1.2%.
From the summer of 2023 to summer of 2024 compensation rose 6.35%, while the cap rose 5.11%.

If we assume another 6.35% increase (I think it will be more since the cap is rising 7.85%) teh thresholds would be:

Low End	High End	Compensation
Min	1,607,662	None
1,607,663	2,435,853	3rd in 2026
2,435,854	4,871,709	2nd in 2026
4,871,710	7,307,562	1st and 3rd in 2026
7,307,563	9,743,418	1st, 2nd and 3rd in 2026
9,743,419	12,179,274	1st in 2027 and 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 2026
12,179,275	Max	1st in 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029

As a FYI, offer sheet compensation increases are not directly based on the cap ceiling, nor the upcoming cap increase for the next season.

Offer Sheet compensation increases are indirectly related to the cap ceiling while also “lagging” the cap ceiling increase by a season. The 2025 increases this summer will be based on the change in average salary from 2023-24 to 2024-25. In an ideal world that would mean the 2025 Offer Sheet increases should be approximately equal to the cap increase % from 2023-24 to 2024-25. Not the cap increase % from 2024-25 to 2025-26.

Q: Why did we see a large 6% offer sheet increase last summer, while the cap only increased by 1.2%?

I haven’t researched the exact answer, but very possibly due to teams knowing the cap increase was finally coming and signing contracts for 2024-25 which more heavily front loaded than the 1.2% cap increase. Additionally, more frequent use of LTIR by teams to exceed the cap in 2023-24 vs the prior 2022-23 season would also push this % higher.

Keep in mind the Offer Sheet increases at the same rate as the Average League Salary increases. Average League Salary is not the same as the AAV of a contract. They use the actual dollars players are being paid in a given season to calculate this, not the averaged dollars over the term of the player contracts. Also, dollars paid to players on LTIR are included in this Average League Salary.

 

[Ace]

For Buffalo…I think Peterka gets matched no matter what. You’ll just be doing their negotiating for them. He’s so far from UFA that trying to poison pill it is whatever…a problem for much later with almost certainly a different management team by then. And if he signs a long term one…great…you’ve done something he probably doesn’t want to do here and now the idiot stuck himself.

Byram is the play because they have already paid Power and Dahlin. But it’s also going to cost a lot because D are getting paid. You want to pay a guy who hasn’t proven he can carry a top 4 pair the new top 4 money and hand over the compensation for a great draft in 2026? Be my guest.

They’ll sign McLeod. He’s been excellent, they love him and, unlike the other two, there is zero indication of any kind he isn’t happy here. He costs less than those two, obviously, and those are the level of guys who have been seeing the sheets…but I think he gets a deal before the window opens anyway.

 

[Lunatik]

As a FYI, offer sheet compensation increases are not directly based on the cap ceiling, nor the upcoming cap increase for the next season.

Offer Sheet compensation increases are indirectly related to the cap ceiling while also “lagging” the cap ceiling increase by a season. The 2025 increases this summer will be based on the change in average salary from 2023-24 to 2024-25. In an ideal world that would mean the 2025 Offer Sheet increases should be approximately equal to the cap increase % from 2023-24 to 2024-25. Not the cap increase % from 2024-25 to 2025-26.

Q: Why did we see a large 6% offer sheet increase last summer, while the cap only increased by 1.2%?

I haven’t researched the exact answer, but very possibly due to teams knowing the cap increase was finally coming and signing contracts for 2024-25 which more heavily front loaded than the 1.2% cap increase. Additionally, more frequent use of LTIR by teams to exceed the cap in 2023-24 vs the prior 2022-23 season would also push this % higher.

Keep in mind the Offer Sheet increases at the same rate as the Average League Salary increases. Average League Salary is not the same as the AAV of a contract. They use the actual dollars players are being paid in a given season to calculate this, not the averaged dollars over the term of the player contracts. Also, dollars paid to players on LTIR are included in this Average League Salary.

I had a feeling it was tied to average salary, but when I googled how much tat was, I didn't find an answer lol.

So assuming salaries rose the same amount as the cap, we'd be looking at closer to a 5.1% increase

As always, your expertise is greatly appreciated.

 

[CanMerc]

Jets will keep Vilardi and should take a shot at Dobson and Rossi

 

[Scintillating10]

For Buffalo…I think Peterka gets matched no matter what. You’ll just be doing their negotiating for them. He’s so far from UFA that trying to poison pill it is whatever…a problem for much later with almost certainly a different management team by then. And if he signs a long term one…great…you’ve done something he probably doesn’t want to do here and now the idiot stuck himself.

Byram is the play because they have already paid Power and Dahlin. But it’s also going to cost a lot because D are getting paid. You want to pay a guy who hasn’t proven he can carry a top 4 pair the new top 4 money and hand over the compensation for a great draft in 2026? Be my guest.

They’ll sign McLeod. He’s been excellent, they love him and, unlike the other two, there is zero indication of any kind he isn’t happy here. He costs less than those two, obviously, and those are the level of guys who have been seeing the sheets…but I think he gets a deal before the window opens anyway.

What about Quinn?

 

[5cotland]

Will Cuylle seems like a good candidate, I'd be curious if NYR would match $4.58M or take the 2nd

Rangers match easily. Kreider and Zibanejad will be gone in the summer clearing up at least $14m in cap space.