Speculation: 2025 RFA Class and offer sheets

[FiveTacos]

The rising cap does not make offer sheets more likely. It makes them less likely, because suddenly teams in the short term have lots of cap room. No one is going to be capped out this summer.

Yeah it's funny, all these fans only looking at it from their own team's perspective ("We have cap room!") and not thinking about the fact that almost everyone has cap room.

So look less for teams that can't match, and more for teams that can but decide it doesn't make sense to do it. It's probably not the superstars and not the $8-$10M players to watch for, but the middle-six and top-four defense. Offer sheets can work when one team thinks more of the player, today, than does his current team. You might see a young D as a guy who can be a #3 for you today and try to poach him at a high salary based on that opinion, while the current team thinks he has promise but is still a #5. It may not be willing to go to the same number because it sees the player differently than the team trying to acquire him. Different depth charts on the two teams can also create differences of opinion as to the role this player would play for you over the period in question.

Yeah, a lot of the ones where someone says, "hey we can sign so and so to an offer sheet and get our 2C, and in a few years the salary will be fine," just means if the other team also sees him as a 2C then they'll just match because you've not offered something out of whack.

You want a 2nd liner that the other team also sees as a 2nd liner? Then offer 1st line money and 4 1sts and make 'em think. Or make a trade offer. Throwing out a market value OS isn't likely to get a guy to sign it in the first place, he can usually get that from his current team.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Leafs would pay 8.25 for Knies?!?!? LMFAO

Absolutely, without question. He’s legit.

 

[GCK]

Absolutely, without question. He’s legit.

Yes they would which is why a short term offer sheet like 3 x 9M would make it difficult to match.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Yes they would which is why a short term offer sheet like 3 x 9M would make it difficult to match.

That would be a huge pain in the a** but I’d still reluctantly match it. Can’t let him go, leafs haven’t had a power forward like him since Gary Roberts.

 

[Fatass]

That would be a huge pain in the a** but I’d still reluctantly match it. Can’t let him go, leafs haven’t had a power forward like him since Gary Roberts.

Would another club offer sheet Knies at a big number forcing the Leafs to choose between him and Marner? Could the Leafs do 13 on Marner and 9 on Knies?

 

[waitin425]

Absolutely, without question. He’s legit.

Not 8.25 million legit. Habs for reference currently have Suzuki, Caufield and Slaf all making less. All better players. Absolutely garbage asset management to sign Knies for 8.25.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Not 8.25 million legit. Habs for reference currently have Suzuki, Caufield and Slaf all making less. All better players. Absolutely garbage asset management to sign Knies for 8.25.

Suzuki is good, Knies will surpass the other two within a year or two. He’s arguably better than Slaf already.

 

[waitin425]

Suzuki is good, Knies will surpass the other two within a year or two. He’s arguably better than Slaf already.

#greatestteaminNHLhistory

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Would another club offer sheet Knies at a big number forcing the Leafs to choose between him and Marner? Could the Leafs do 13 on Marner and 9 on Knies?

We’ll see, I think they’ll find a way to make it work though.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

#greatestteaminNHLhistory

Keep hatin, you’ll see.

 

[57special]

lol devils aren't going to sign Rossi to 9-10 per year and lose four 1st. anything less and wild match. The reason wild haven't signed him is they aren't willing to pay him more than the 8 mil Matt Boldy is earning

Boldy is making 7M.

 

[waitin425]

Keep hatin, you’ll see.

1967

 

[StreetHawk]

Yes they would which is why a short term offer sheet like 3 x 9M would make it difficult to match.

Max term OS push the AAV up when calculating the compensation. The maximum Denominator is the LESSOR of 5 years or the Length of the OS contract. Thus, a successful OS is going to be 5 yeas or less most likely.
That's why the one MON offered Aho was 5 years. If they gave him the same AAV but made it 6 years, thus pushing the total from $42.27 to $50.3 mill, the draft pick compensation number would be ($50.3 mill/5 years) making the number $10 mill, when looking up the draft pick comp.

Everything needs to align for a team to make a successful OS.
1) Other club needs to be near the cap ceiling
2) Player needs to want out and sign the OS
3) Team needs to have the draft pick comp and feel good about the number with regards to their own soon to be RFA. STL other D were all vets so no one planning on comparing to Broberg. The other youngsters they had were not going to be top 4 guys down the line.
4) Number needs to be high enough for both the original team to pass on the offer and ok enough for the offering team to be comfortable having.

 

[57special]

lol got it. They don't want to pay him but they'd match an offer sheet.

Sort of. They probably want to keep him at, or under, Boldy's 7M. Twist their arm and they might reluctantly go up to 8, or so. I think that 9M would be a bridge too far for them. Maybe not for the Devils?

 

[leafsfan2point0]

1967

Ouuu, very original.

 

[waitin425]

Ouuu, very original.

Cant wait to "see"

 

[Fatass]

Max term OS push the AAV up when calculating the compensation. The maximum Denominator is the LESSOR of 5 years or the Length of the OS contract. Thus, a successful OS is going to be 5 yeas or less most likely.
That's why the one MON offered Aho was 5 years. If they gave him the same AAV but made it 6 years, thus pushing the total from $42.27 to $50.3 mill, the draft pick compensation number would be ($50.3 mill/5 years) making the number $10 mill, when looking up the draft pick comp.

Everything needs to align for a team to make a successful OS.
1) Other club needs to be near the cap ceiling
2) Player needs to want out and sign the OS
3) Team needs to have the draft pick comp and feel good about the number with regards to their own soon to be RFA. STL other D were all vets so no one planning on comparing to Broberg. The other youngsters they had were not going to be top 4 guys down the line.
4) Number needs to be high enough for both the original team to pass on the offer and ok enough for the offering team to be comfortable having.

Does the player need to want out? The player might be happy playing on their current club but if an offer sheet comes in at double the AAV being offered by that current team then certainly the guy will move on. Imagine the Leafs offering Knies 4.5 x 3 and another club come in at 9 x 5? The happiness of where one is playing factor goes bye bye.

 

[Cenzo_]

With the cap going that much up, but the compensation in picks not changing for offer sheets, most teams will match

 

[Cenzo_]

Leafs would pay 8.25 for Knies?!?!? LMFAO

would you pay 8.25 for Slaf if offersheeted? Hell yes you would and Knies and Slaf are very comparable with Knies arguably having the edge this year

 

[waitin425]

would you pay 8.25 for Slaf if offersheeted? Hell yes you would and Knies and Slaf are very comparable with Knies arguably having the edge this year

I would...doesnt make him worth it though. Thank god we don't have three other guys making north of 11 million though.

Even if Tavares walks and they resign Marner. That is a steep price for Knies as their new 4th forward. Poor asset management.

 

[Golden_Jet]

lol devils aren't going to sign Rossi to 9-10 per year and lose four 1st. anything less and wild match. The reason wild haven't signed him is they aren't willing to pay him more than the 8 mil Matt Boldy is earning

9.1 million is a first, a second and a third, not 4 firsts, and the 9.1 million will go up a bit with the cap rising, possibly a little higher than 9.5
Oh and Boldy make 7 million not 8.

 

[Lunatik]

No way Boston gives up a top 5 pick.

offer sheets can't happen until after the 2025 draft

 

[Fatass]

1967

2025

 

[Lunatik]

I'm reposting this as @Gaylord Q Tinkledink caught a mistake in that the 4 first rounder can happen over a 5 year span.

Just a reminder to everyone, we do not know what the RFA Offer sheet thresholds are yet for offer sheets this summer.

From the summer of 2022 to summer of 2023 compensation rose 2.07%, while the cap rose 1.2%.
From the summer of 2023 to summer of 2024 compensation rose 6.35%, while the cap rose 5.11%.

If we assume another 6.35% increase (I think it will be more since the cap is rising 7.85%) teh thresholds would be:

Low End	High End	Compensation
Min	1,607,662	None
1,607,663	2,435,853	3rd in 2026
2,435,854	4,871,709	2nd in 2026
4,871,710	7,307,562	1st and 3rd in 2026
7,307,563	9,743,418	1st, 2nd and 3rd in 2026
9,743,419	12,179,274	1st in 2027 and 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 2026
12,179,275	Max	Four 1st round picks from 2026-2030

 

[Fatass]

9.1 million is a first, a second and a third, not 4 firsts, and the 9.1 million will go up a bit with the cap rising, possibly a little higher than 9.5
Oh and Boldy make 7 million not 8.

Do we know if the contract dollar levels, that determine compensation, will be increased for this year’s RFA class?