Pre-Game Talk: 2025 NHL Draft Thread

[BadgersandBlues]

Buch-Thomas-Marner would be something

Too much passing.

The only way I'm moving Kyrou is for a sure-fire #1 D (Preferably RH) who's a bit younger and either on a similar contract or an ELC. So basically no one.

 

[DatDude44]

Too much passing.

The only way I'm moving Kyrou is for a sure-fire #1 D (Preferably RH) who's a bit younger and either on a similar contract or an ELC. So basically no one.

Werenski is my personal target with this idea

 

[sfvega]

Marner is an incredible hockey player. He's insanely elusive with the puck, makes some unbelievable passes, and is highly competitive. Leafs fans are out to lunch when they complain about him. He's one of the most complete players in the league. He just doesn't run guys through the boards so he gets shit on like ROR did in Buffalo, when we all saw what a huge impact he had here defensively without being ultra physical. Like yeah, he scores a bit less in the playoffs, but the playoffs are against the best teams in the league. Almost everyone scores less in the playoffs.

Very good points. I think Toronto's problem is timing. When Marner is on, Matthews disappears. When Auston is scoring, Nylander disappears. We had the same problem in Oshie, who played great in the regular season and disappeared every playoffs. Went to Washington and had a superb Cup run. Sometimes guys choke and sometimes it's just the situation. Especially with a team that had mediocre goaltending and defense; they can't afford any of their Big 3 to have a bad series.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Werenski is my personal target with this idea

I think Werenski is a great player, but he doesn't fit our timeline at all. I think we're really looking at our competitive window opening at best in 26/27, when he's 29 and with only two years on his deal. Getting only two competitive years out of him before having to resign him to likely a much higher number isn't really what I have in mind.

I'd much rather target a Power, Byram, Faber, or Sanderson. Again, it'll never happen, but that's really the only guy I'm pulling the trigger on a Kyrou trade for - or a guy that we're 95% sure hits his ceiling like a Nikishin.

 

[BlueMed]

Marner is an incredible hockey player. He's insanely elusive with the puck, makes some unbelievable passes, and is highly competitive. Leafs fans are out to lunch when they complain about him. He's one of the most complete players in the league. He just doesn't run guys through the boards so he gets shit on like ROR did in Buffalo, when we all saw what a huge impact he had here defensively without being ultra physical. Like yeah, he scores a bit less in the playoffs, but the playoffs are against the best teams in the league. Almost everyone scores less in the playoffs.

I don't follow. There's a strong case that his impact decreases markedly as a playoff series goes on. Looking at his numbers more closely, you can see that he has only scored 1 goal past 4 game and only 3 assists past game 5.

Mitch Marner
11 career playoff games in 57 games
-4 goals in game 1s
-4 goals in game 2s
-0 goals in game 3s
-2 goals in game 4s
-0 goals in game 5s
-1 goal game 6s
-0 goals game 7s

39 career playoff assists in 57 games
-5 assists in game 1s
-7 assists in game 2s
-9 assists in game 3s
-10 assists in game 4s
-5 assists in game 5s
-1 assist in game 6s
-2 assists in game 7s

From 2008 to 2021, the average number of goals per game in the regular season is 5.67 compared to the playoffs 5.42. That’s a drop of only 4.4%. In games 5, 6, and 7’s the average number of goals was 5.35, 5.58, and 5.07, respectively. His career regular season points per game is 1.12 compared to his post season points per game as 0.85. For comparison sake, Mackinnon's PPG rises from 1.14 to 1.29, Rantanen's PPG rises from 1.09 to 1.24, McDavid's PPG rises from 1.52 to 1.58, Draisaitl's PPG rises from 1.18 to 1.45, Point's PPG's rises from 0.95 to 1.00, Kucherov's PPG only falls from 1.21 to 1.13, and Tkachuk's PPG falls only from 0.98 to 0.85. We're talking about a player who demanded to be paid the 7th highest AAV in the league (5th among forwards) in 2019 when a bridge deal was perfectly reasonable. Toronto fans are correct when they state: that's not good enough.

 

[AyeBah]

Forget Marner, lets sign Rantanen from those guys out west. Imagine how satisfying it would be to take him from the Avs

 

[DatDude44]

I think Werenski is a great player, but he doesn't fit our timeline at all. I think we're really looking at our competitive window opening at best in 26/27, when he's 29 and with only two years on his deal. Getting only two competitive years out of him before having to resign him to likely a much higher number isn't really what I have in mind.

I'd much rather target a Power, Byram, Faber, or Sanderson. Again, it'll never happen, but that's really the only guy I'm pulling the trigger on a Kyrou trade for - or a guy that we're 95% sure hits his ceiling like a Nikishin.

None of those guys will be available. Werenski will still be really good when he’s 31 man. D that play his style age like fine wine. If he was 34, then what you’re saying would make sense.

 

[Stealth JD]

Since he's actually a real prospect and committed to Boston U for next year(Haoxi Wang - Stats, Contract, Salary & More), I'm going to assume this wasn't an attempt at humor and give a quick shoot out to two other Chinesse born prospects that look to have some upside: Xiang Wen(solidly built Offensive D at Shawnigan Lake Prep) and Louis Gu(goalie at Kelowna U18 Prep).


Chinese hockey is growing slowly, but it is starting to grow. Good for the game.

Good article profiling Wang from Wheeler.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5891569/2024/12/04/nhl-draft-2025-haoxi-simon-wang/

Kid didn't start playing hockey until he was 14. Lots of upside.
I'd still rather have Broberg for next year's second than Wang...but I'd love to somehow grab a pick between 25 & 45 and draft this kid.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Good article profiling Wang from Wheeler.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5891569/2024/12/04/nhl-draft-2025-haoxi-simon-wang/

Kid didn't start playing hockey until he was 14. Lots of upside.
I'd still rather have Broberg for next year's second than Wang...but I'd love to somehow grab a pick between 25 & 45 and draft this kid.

We spent the #86 pick on Parayko, and that’s about as high as I’d want to go on a player like Wang. Way too much risk there for my tastes.

 

[stl76]

I don't follow. There's a strong case that his impact decreases markedly as a playoff series goes on. Looking at his numbers more closely, you can see that he has only scored 1 goal past 4 game and only 3 assists past game 5.

Mitch Marner
11 career playoff games in 57 games
-4 goals in game 1s
-4 goals in game 2s
-0 goals in game 3s
-2 goals in game 4s
-0 goals in game 5s
-1 goal game 6s
-0 goals game 7s

39 career playoff assists in 57 games
-5 assists in game 1s
-7 assists in game 2s
-9 assists in game 3s
-10 assists in game 4s
-5 assists in game 5s
-1 assist in game 6s
-2 assists in game 7s

You would really want to look at per game stats here for a clearer idea of Marner’s impact. There are a lot more game 1-4’s played than game 7s…

 

[Majorityof1]

You would really want to look at per game stats here for a clearer idea of Marner’s impact. There are a lot more game 1-4’s played than game 7s…

Nailed it. If he played 10 game 1s and put up 9 points, and 1 game 7 and put up 2 points, that is a far higher ppg in game 7s. The post you are quoting is really disingenuous. Lies, damn lies and statistics.

 

[BlueMed]

You would really want to look at per game stats here for a clearer idea of Marner’s impact. There are a lot more game 1-4’s played than game 7s…

That's a fair point, but even if you equilibrate the PPG throughout the course of the series, you cannot deny his overall drop in PPG from regular season to post season compared to his elite counterparts. You may want to read the last part of my post.

 

[stl76]

That's a fair point, but even if you equilibrate the PPG throughout the course of the series, you cannot deny his overall drop in PPG from regular season to post season compared to his elite counterparts. You may want to read the last part of my post.

I read the rest of your post, just didn't find it particularly noteworthy. I mean, it's not really a controversial claim to say Marner is not producing offensively on the level of McDrai/KucherPoint/MacKRantanen in the playoffs. Is anyone outside Toronto homers even claiming that Marner is on the same level as McDrai/Kucherov/MacKinnon to begin with?

Marner reg season ppg =1.12; playoff ppg = 0.86
Matthews reg season ppg =1.15; playoff ppg = 0.88
Nylander reg season ppg =0.88; playoff ppg = 0.79
Tavares reg season ppg =0.94; playoff ppg = 0.74

Seems like there is something bigger than just Marner going on here. If Rantanen and Marner switched spots, I don't think their results would be all that different

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

I read the rest of your post, just didn't find it particularly noteworthy. I mean, it's not really a controversial claim to say Marner is not producing offensively on the level of McDrai/KucherPoint/MacKRantanen in the playoffs. Is anyone outside Toronto homers even claiming that Marner is on the same level as McDrai/Kucherov/MacKinnon to begin with?

Marner reg season ppg =1.12; playoff ppg = 0.86
Matthews reg season ppg =1.15; playoff ppg = 0.88
Nylander reg season ppg =0.88; playoff ppg = 0.79
Tavares reg season ppg =0.94; playoff ppg = 0.74

Seems like there is something bigger than just Marner going on here. If Rantanen and Marner switched spots, I don't think their results would be all that different

They're all getting paid to be on the level of those top guys and they simply aren't getting it done. Sure, Marner could very well perform better somewhere besides Toronto, but he could also very well be exactly what his stats say he is. But if I'm going to shell out for the contract that Marner is going to ask for, I'd want someone that's a slam dunk for stepping up in the playoffs.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

We spent the #86 pick on Parayko, and that’s about as high as I’d want to go on a player like Wang. Way too much risk there for my tastes.

He just signed an OHL deal so he may make this more interesting with a so so D crop this year.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

He just signed an OHL deal so he may make this more interesting with a so so D crop this year.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Someone out there will get trigger happy based on the size and take him too early. Maybe it works out — for his sake I hope it does! — but given where we’ll be picking and how few picks we have this year, it’s just way too much risk for my tastes. He’s a “magic bean” pick. I love those picks further down the draft board. But if we want him we’ll have to overdraft and forgo surer things.

 

[Stealth JD]

We spent the #86 pick on Parayko, and that’s about as high as I’d want to go on a player like Wang. Way too much risk there for my tastes.

Parayko was way underscouted being tucked away in Fairbanks, Alaska.
Wang has dozens of scout's eyes on him every game. He's not making in to the third round.

 

[BlueMed]

I read the rest of your post, just didn't find it particularly noteworthy. I mean, it's not really a controversial claim to say Marner is not producing offensively on the level of McDrai/KucherPoint/MacKRantanen in the playoffs. Is anyone outside Toronto homers even claiming that Marner is on the same level as McDrai/Kucherov/MacKinnon to begin with?

Marner reg season ppg =1.12; playoff ppg = 0.86
Matthews reg season ppg =1.15; playoff ppg = 0.88
Nylander reg season ppg =0.88; playoff ppg = 0.79
Tavares reg season ppg =0.94; playoff ppg = 0.74

Seems like there is something bigger than just Marner going on here. If Rantanen and Marner switched spots, I don't think their results would be all that different

My post was moreso in response to an earlier poster that praised him stating "Leafs fans are out to lunch when they complain about him...Like yeah, he scores a bit less in the playoffs, but the playoffs are against the best teams in the league. Almost everyone scores less in the playoffs."

That was where I respectfully disagreed noting that not everyone scores less in the playoffs, and I cited other elite players around the league that produce more in the playoffs despite asking for similar AAV. You are correct to say that the other members of the core 4 are guilty of this as well, but the conversation was around Mitch in particular.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Parayko was way underscouted being tucked away in Fairbanks, Alaska.
Wang has dozens of scout's eyes on him every game. He's not making in to the third round.

My point exactly. Right now, my opinion is that the only thing justifying an early selection for him is hype. As a later selection, sure I’d be fine with taking a flyer on him. I would be very careful taking him early. Especially because we don’t have a lot of early picks this year.

 

[kimzey59]

That's totally possible. Like I said, we'll have to see what happens.

Don't look now, but Mrtka's starting to produce.
Up to 7 points in 9 games for Seattle.

I'm a little surprised that he didn't make the Czech WJC team.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Don't look now, but Mrtka's starting to produce.
Up to 7 points in 9 games for Seattle.

I'm a little surprised that he didn't make the Czech WJC team.

That made no sense to me at all. Especially with the size of the top 3

 

[CurrentCS]

Parayko was in the AJHL in his draft year as an already 18yr old. He had a major growth spurt over the year prior going from 5'10 to 6'3 and kept on growing to 6'6 after the Blues drafted him. Then he went on to Alaska to College.

I personally think that Colin Ralph has a bit of Parayko to his game, at least defensively.

As far as this draft is concerned, I'm not too high on it. I'd love Desnoyers but I don't think he lasts past 7 at the latest and I think the Blues will be in the 10-14 range. Radim Mrtka would be my #1 target in that range. Hensler as a backup if they go D. If they go with a forward I'd probably go with Jake O'Brien. I also like Carbonneau but I would be meh in that range for him.

If Anton Frondell falls I'd run to the podium kind of like the Dvorsky pick.

 

[Mike Liut]

Parayko was in the AJHL in his draft year as an already 18yr old. He had a major growth spurt over the year prior going from 5'10 to 6'3 and kept on growing to 6'6 after the Blues drafted him. Then he went on to Alaska to College.

I personally think that Colin Ralph has a bit of Parayko to his game, at least defensively.

As far as this draft is concerned, I'm not too high on it. I'd love Desnoyers but I don't think he lasts past 7 at the latest and I think the Blues will be in the 10-14 range. Radim Mrtka would be my #1 target in that range. Hensler as a backup if they go D. If they go with a forward I'd probably go with Jake O'Brien. I also like Carbonneau but I would be meh in that range for him.

If Anton Frondell falls I'd run to the podium kind of like the Dvorsky pick.

What about Ryabkin in the 11- 15 range?

 

[CurrentCS]

What about Ryabkin in the 11- 15 range?

He has had a huge falloff this season and seems to have a number of red flags for me to want to take him in that range. However if we were to pick up another later 1st say 25-32 I'd take a swing at him.