2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[coooldude]

They could still bottom out. They're easily the most fraudulent "good" team in the league.

To this point, they're only #16 in the MoneyPuck power rankings.

 

[Juxtaposer]

To this point, they're only #16 in the MoneyPuck power rankings.

Vegas' underlying numbers aren't great, but they also are 4th in points percentage for the whole NHL and are a virtual lock for the playoffs and for their pick to be in the 20's. A lot of people around here were fantasizing about Vegas being bottom-5 in the NHL, which is obviously not happening.

 

[hohosaregood]

A lot of why people thought Vegas could be bad is coming to fruition in that their possession metrics have fallen off from losing a bunch of good puck retrieval guys. They're also staying afloat for the reasons people thought they could with the rock solid defense and the high end talent at the top. That PP is absurd when Stone is in the lineup. So partial win for the Vegas haters.

Another thing that helps Vegas is that the Pacific is absolute dog poop.

 

[coooldude]

Vegas' underlying numbers aren't great, but they also are 4th in points percentage for the whole NHL and are a virtual lock for the playoffs and for their pick to be in the 20's. A lot of people around here were fantasizing about Vegas being bottom-5 in the NHL, which is obviously not happening.

I was fantasizing about them finishing with pick 12-20, and giving us a chance to draft someone like Mrtka or Trethewey or Jackson Smith or Blake Fiddler in addition to whoever we get at the top. Instead, it looks like Jackson Smith is top 7, and the rest of those names are soft 1st or 2nd+ rounders, and as you well know 2025 is thin, so with this knowledge, it was worth the trade for Askarov even if you didn't know that he also looks great in the AHL.

Since he also looks great in the AHL, I will say that the trade now looks very good.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

A lot of why people thought Vegas could be bad is coming to fruition in that their possession metrics have fallen off from losing a bunch of good puck retrieval guys. They're also staying afloat for the reasons people thought they could with the rock solid defense and the high end talent at the top. That PP is absurd when Stone is in the lineup. So partial win for the Vegas haters.

Another thing that helps Vegas is that the Pacific is absolute dog poop.

I think there’s a pretty big difference between “the Sharks are holding Vegas’ pick, so let me hope and enumerate the ways Vegas’ season could go poorly to the benefit of the Sharks” and “Vegas is going to suck next year”.

There’s still plenty of time for things to go awry for Vegas. Stone’s wear and tear catches up to him, Eichel’s neck explodes, and Hertl’s knees melt and all the sudden Vegas is in a real tough spot.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I was fantasizing about them finishing with pick 12-20, and giving us a chance to draft someone like Mrtka or Trethewey or Jackson Smith or Blake Fiddler in addition to whoever we get at the top. Instead, it looks like Jackson Smith is top 7, and the rest of those names are soft 1st or 2nd+ rounders, and as you well know 2025 is thin, so with this knowledge, it was worth the trade for Askarov even if you didn't know that he also looks great in the AHL.

Since he also looks great in the AHL, I will say that the trade now looks very good.

Totally, not saying everyone was but there absolutely existed a contingent who was convinced we were trading away a lottery pick.

 

[TheBeard]

I think there’s a pretty big difference between “the Sharks are holding Vegas’ pick, so let me hope and enumerate the ways Vegas’ season could go poorly to the benefit of the Sharks” and “Vegas is going to suck next year”.

There’s still plenty of time for things to go awry for Vegas. Stone’s wear and tear catches up to him, Eichel’s neck explodes, and Hertl’s knees melt and all the sudden Vegas is in a real tough spot.

I mean while we're at it Robin Lehner can come back and kidnap all the goaltenders in the system, but the reality is it's not happening.

 

[hohosaregood]

I was fantasizing about them finishing with pick 12-20, and giving us a chance to draft someone like Mrtka or Trethewey or Jackson Smith or Blake Fiddler in addition to whoever we get at the top. Instead, it looks like Jackson Smith is top 7, and the rest of those names are soft 1st or 2nd+ rounders, and as you well know 2025 is thin, so with this knowledge, it was worth the trade for Askarov even if you didn't know that he also looks great in the AHL.

Since he also looks great in the AHL, I will say that the trade now looks very good.

My original hope was for Martone at 2-3 with our pick and use the Vegas pick on Ravensbergen if it was in the 20s and Tretheway/Hensler if it was 10-20. And then outside longshot hope for a Vegas lottery win. That would've filled out a lot of holes for the org depth but I'll take Askarov over Ravensburgen ez.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

I mean while we're at it Robin Lehner can come back and kidnap all the goaltenders in the system, but the reality is it's not happening.

Reality is an infinite series of interacting probability clouds colliding in sequence. Can we say with certainty only one outcome will come to pass?

 

[TheBeard]

Reality is an infinite series of interacting probability clouds colliding in sequence. Can we say with certainty only one outcome will come to pass?

Nope, but some are more probable than others. As much as I hate Vegas, I'd be shocked if they didn't finish 1st or 2nd in the pacific.

 

[StanleyCup2035]

Celebrini is God! However, our God may cause us to fall out of the Top 4. Is it too early to change the title to: "Sink for Hensler, the League’s Future #6 Defenser"

 

[Patty Ice]

Celebrini is God! However, our God may cause us to fall out of the Top 4. Is it too early to change the title to: "Sink for Hensler, the League’s Future #6 Defenser"

Lose Some for Another Eklund.

I'm not a good rapper. I'm not a good rhymer but my watch says that it's Victor timer.

 

[Jargon]

If we could only draft both Smith and Eklund, we could start building a team composed entirely of Eklunds, Smiths and a single Celebrini.

 

[anthonyyy]

If we could only draft both Smith and Eklund, we could start building a team composed entirely of Eklunds, Smiths and a single Celebrini.

We could always trade for the other Celebrini.

 

[Jargon]

We could always trade for the other Celebrini.

Oh yeah I forgot about him. Okay, I’m in.

 

[Shark Finn]

If we could only draft both Smith and Eklund, we could start building a team composed entirely of Eklunds, Smiths and a single Celebrini.

Plus all the 'Lunds available.

 

[Star Platinum]

Check out the effort on this goal

 

[Hogde]

Would Schaffer and Dickinson be a comparable duo to Karlsson and Burns?

 

[coooldude]

Would Schaffer and Dickinson be a comparable duo to Karlsson and Burns?

If they hit their ceilings, yes kinda but on the left side? Schaefer might be better defensively than either, and Dick might not be as dominant offensively as Burns. Neither might be as offensively gifted as Karl but hopefully both are better all around (I was never a Karl fan).

But it sure looks like Schaefer has a great shot of going top 2. This year it seems like team need will play a larger role with the big four all looking like they have a claim for #1 depending on who you are, but we'll see what happens in the back half of the season. If it's me, I'm willing to take a risk on Jackson Smith at 5OA if we slip there.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

If they hit their ceilings, yes kinda but on the left side? Schaefer might be better defensively than either, and Dick might not be as dominant offensively as Burns. Neither might be as offensively gifted as Karl but hopefully both are better all around (I was never a Karl fan).

But it sure looks like Schaefer has a great shot of going top 2. This year it seems like team need will play a larger role with the big four all looking like they have a claim for #1 depending on who you are, but we'll see what happens in the back half of the season. If it's me, I'm willing to take a risk on Jackson Smith at 5OA if we slip there.

even if we dont slip, start moving assets to get up there again. Im not sure Smith goes before 7 so how do we get up there.

We NEED to haver dmen as early as possible as they will take longer to hit their stride. Theres no sense in drafting dmen 1-2 years from now if they'll take another 2-3 to get up to speed in the NHL (Dupont the exception here)

 

[Forlan]

Maybe stop hoping that the Sharks will be in the top 3 of the draft) Schaefer will be on another team. We need to look at the real options - Smith, Eklund, Desnoyers

 

[matt trick]

I've been trying to watch a good bit of Schaefer- OHL games are good for killing time until the Sharks play!

Even though he is super young, he looks excellent defensively- smart, good with his stick, closes gaps well, but not real physical. With his size he could become a really effective shutdown guy as well, but sometimes those CHL traits don't translate as well.

He's a excellent skater- so economical and smooth he doesn't look to be going that fast, but he is. Reminds me of Marleau. Really good at evading forecheckers as well. Great vision, good wrist shot, attacks the net. I'm not sure I see premier PPQB- he doesn't have the slipperiness of a Karlsson, Makar, or Hughes, but on a team where the PP will run through Celebrini and Smith, who cares.

If I were to pick a superstar dman he compares to it'd be Heiskanen, Pietro, or Doughty, rather than Karlsson, as he leans a bit more defneisve.

For Dickinson, I think the raw physical abilities- size, strength, speed- are similar to Burns, though he is 2 inches shorter. Unfortunately he also has a tendency to look like Burns on 2v1s. Looks and sounds like physical strength for Dickinson as well, but Burns is probably top 2-5% in the NHL for his training regiment. I'm not sure I see Dickinson developing into a 20/50+ type threat, though Dobson (Q) and Bouchard (OHL, but higher scoring) have. I think Dickinson will be better defensively than either. Maybe Aaron Ekblad is a good comparison, though he was projected to be a more dominant two-way dman. I don't think Dickisnon has Burns's hands and offensive mind- these, combined with his physical abilities- are something else. Not sure Dickinson reaches that level. Then again, Burns was a .6 PPG winger in his OHL DY, so no one would have predicted it for Burns either.

I do think Schaefer and Dickinson could lock down the top two pairings for 15 years. You'd just need solid complimentary second pair guys who can play good D and get them the puck. Not sure many teams have a better 1-2 punch for young d-men. Maybe, Dahlin-Power or perhaps Faber-Buium, but I'd much prefer Schaefer-Dickinson to Vlasic-Levshunov, Hughes-Nemec, Nikishin-Morrow, Hutson-Guhle. Granted each of these teams go several other D prospects deep. Unfortunately, I think the likelihood of SJ having a shot at Schaefer is low. I can see NSH (never drafted a C), BUFF (4 good LHD), and Chicago (zero top 6 F to play with Bedard) passing on him, but if we're fourth or lower I can't see it happening, and at 5th it seems out of the question. Drafting third, I'd say it's 50/50.

 

[Cas]

Maybe stop hoping that the Sharks will be in the top 3 of the draft) Schaefer will be on another team. We need to look at the real options - Smith, Eklund, Desnoyers

There are two teams worse than us on points percentage and goal differential. The season is 40% over.

 

[matt trick]

even if we dont slip, start moving assets to get up there again. Im not sure Smith goes before 7 so how do we get up there.

We NEED to haver dmen as early as possible as they will take longer to hit their stride. Theres no sense in drafting dmen 1-2 years from now if they'll take another 2-3 to get up to speed in the NHL (Dupont the exception here)

Verhoeff next year also looks really good. As does Lin. Not Schaefer/Dupont good, but top pairing RHD good, particularly for Verhoeff. However, this time last year Hensler was projected a top 5 pick, so hard to say how it'll work out.

I do agree that ideally you'd have some d-men in the fold before the franchise forwards, as D take longer to develop. Avs drafted McKinnon before Makar, and that's worked out pretty damn well.

Maybe stop hoping that the Sharks will be in the top 3 of the draft) Schaefer will be on another team. We need to look at the real options - Smith, Eklund, Desnoyers

I really like Desnoyers. Celebrini-Smith-Desnoyers-Bystedt (with one of those guys on the wing) is a nice collection of skill, size, and grit.

I want to keep Granlund, but I think the major drop off from the top 4 to these 3 (and McQueen/Frondell) is the largest benefit of selling him, and Ceci, Kunin, and Blackwood off. Hard to sell that to Celebrini, but he's a smart kid, if future team Canada teammate Schaefer, Misa, or Martone walks through the door, I don't think he'll be too heartbroken.

 

[matt trick]

There are two teams worse than us on points percentage and goal differential. The season is 40% over.

Statistically our most likely draft position right now, is 5th. And we're closer to Anaheim in 6th (MTL, Buff in 4th/5th) than NSH/Chicago tied for 1st. Also for the bottom 6 teams, SJ has the highest p% over the last 10 with .5, while MTL is 2nd best at .45. ANA (.35), CHI (.3), NSH (.3), and Buff (.15 ) are mindblowingly poor.

I bet our 'with Celebrini' pace is also closer the Wings and the Jackets, though those first 10 games do count, so that's a pretty significant gap to close.

I do think the Sharks have been a bit lucky with their late game heroics- the loss of Blackwood will make an impact here. Goals differential can sometimes be another good proxy for team quality. Here, SJ (-27) is near league bottom with MTL (-31), NSH (-28), and Chicago (-21) with a few more games played. Speaking of goal differential, Sharks are on pace for an 83 goal improvement in that metric. Again, I think it'll equalize, but my hope for a -75 goal differential (and +75 improvement) looks to be on track.