2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[Cas]

Right now, our most likely individual pick is #4 (39.8%), but we have a 30% chance to pick #1-3 just as things stand now, and I suspect we'll drop as the season goes on.

 

[coooldude]

Statistically our most likely draft position right now, is 5th. And we're closer to Anaheim in 6th (MTL, Buff in 4th/5th) than NSH/Chicago tied for 1st. Also for the bottom 6 teams, SJ has the highest p% over the last 10 with .5, while MTL is 2nd best at .45. ANA (.35), CHI (.3), NSH (.3), and Buff (.15 ) are mindblowingly poor.

I bet our 'with Celebrini' pace is also closer the Wings and the Jackets, though those first 10 games do count, so that's a pretty significant gap to close.

I do think the Sharks have been a bit lucky with their late game heroics- the loss of Blackwood will make an impact here. Goals differential can sometimes be another good proxy for team quality. Here, SJ (-27) is near league bottom with MTL (-31), NSH (-28), and Chicago (-21) with a few more games played. Speaking of goal differential, Sharks are on pace for an 83 goal improvement in that metric. Again, I think it'll equalize, but my hope for a -75 goal differential (and +75 improvement) looks to be on track.

Technically it's 4th

I'll do a mid season stats review, but quickly looking through our /60 numbers on Moneypuck, we're playing #5-10th worst on offense but we're still bottom 3 on D, and that means we are still playing as a bottom 3 team. Given we just downgraded from Blackwood to Georgiev, we could easily lose 1-3 more games than otherwise, and that could make all the difference between picking top 4 and picking top 6-7.

 

[matt trick]

Right now, our most likely individual pick is #4 (39.8%), but we have a 30% chance to pick #1-3 just as things stand now, and I suspect we'll drop as the season goes on.

You're right, 4th, not 3rd: 2025 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon.

I still think Nash and Buff have to be better. I wouldn't be surpised if Montreal improves a bit as well. I'd be stunned to see Chicago higher than 2nd this year unless some of their kids come up and are outstanding.

Speaking of Chicago, I'd like to see Chicago extend Bedard this year after a lesser scoring season, as that will be Celebrini's immediate contract comparable. Once Celebrini is signed, all other Sharks contracts have that as a ceiling. Sign Celebrini for $10-11M and Smith gets a $7-9.5M cap hit. As does any big UFA pursued in free agency. Granted this means we're out on Marner, Rantanen, Kaprizov, but maybe not Boeser, Ehlers, Connor, and Tuch types.

Technically it's 4th

I'll do a mid season stats review, but quickly looking through our /60 numbers on Moneypuck, we're playing #5-10th worst on offense but we're still bottom 3 on D, and that means we are still playing as a bottom 3 team. Given we just downgraded from Blackwood to Georgiev, we could easily lose 1-3 more games than otherwise, and that could make all the difference between picking top 4 and picking top 6-7.
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Good reminder to not use the word statistically without actually checking the facts lol.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Maybe stop hoping that the Sharks will be in the top 3 of the draft) Schaefer will be on another team. We need to look at the real options - Smith, Eklund, Desnoyers

Nah, not when they're 3rd to last in points percentage. Top 3 in the draft is a real option. All it takes is another injury to Celebrini for any extended period of time and they can easily go on another massive losing streak. They've lost four of five as it is now and their next five opponents are all more or less playoff teams and a sixth that is a playoff team by points percentage.

 

[fasterthanlight]

You also have to think that Nashville's meltdown will course correct at some point during the year, no?

 

[PattyLafontaine]

You also have to think that Nashville's meltdown will course correct at some point during the year, no?

I don't think so. They are really bad and it doesn't seem that any of their acquisitions were course correct.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't think so. They are really bad and it doesn't seem that any of their acquisitions were course correct.

They still have three games against the Sharks that they'll probably win to surpass us. We'll be fine. lol

 

[Juxtaposer]

I don't think so. They are really bad and it doesn't seem that any of their acquisitions were course correct.

It's obviously far too late for Nashville to make the playoffs, but it's completely possible that they get healthy and win a few games down the stretch to pass the Sharks.

 

[vortexy]

You also have to think that Nashville's meltdown will course correct at some point during the year, no?

I think they remain bad but not this bad, more so in the bottom 5-7 range.

At the end of day I think the battle for the bottom 2-3 teams in the league will be be between the Hawks, Sharks, Habs, and the Ducks. Any matchups we have vs these teams pray for losses similar to when we played the Hawks last year.

Edit: Selling off Blackwood was also really key, he definitely stole a few games this season already. Also expect us to continue selling at the deadline and our lineup gets weaker, especially if we lose Granlund

 

[vortexy]

Wow at practice for Team Canada for the WJC and Schaefer is the QB for PP1. If he performs on the big stage I bet he will be conseus #1 when all is said and done. Doesn’t mean he will be picked #1 depending on the team’s needs but it’s definitely steering in the direction that we will need the #1 or #2 pick to get him I bet. Also I am a little surprised to see Dickinson not on either power play unit

 

[hohosaregood]

Would Schaffer and Dickinson be a comparable duo to Karlsson and Burns?

To be perfectly hyperbolic, more like Niedermayer and Pronger.

 

[matt trick]

Little bummed they don't have Martone handling net front. Howe is two years older though.