2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[Stewie Griffin]

Blackwood is playing above his head, and once he gets traded we're relying on rookie Askarov and Vanecek. If Askarov plays us out of top-4 contention it's a good problem to have, that means he's showing his potential.

The fact we got Dickinson last year who should've gone top-10, took a year off our rebuild. Even if he's not a legit superstar, it's one less year we need to draft someone that high.

That said, I would love to have one of those top-4 guys, so let's see what happens. It's still early December.

 

[sharski]

I demand a mod closes this as a roll bread

 

[coooldude]

If we do, indeed, play our way out of a top 4 pick, which I am not yet ready to believe, my next hope is Jackson Smith (LD). There are some critiques of him, but also a lot of buzz as a sleeper top 10.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

How long until we change our thread name to 'Diktat for Matt'?

I'll gladly take any of Hagens, Martone and Misa but my pick right now is Matt Schaefer.

He looks like a 1D to me. We'd have an embarrassment of riches.

 

[209]

That's 2 points...well earned! Over 13....

 

[one2gamble]

Honestly, if they pick top 4 I am not going to complain at all.

 

[sampler]

If we do, indeed, play our way out of a top 4 pick, which I am not yet ready to believe, my next hope is Jackson Smith (LD). There are some critiques of him, but also a lot of buzz as a sleeper top 10.

Personally, Id rather take another forward with the first pick. This year has shown, clear as day to me, that vet D are key. We have dick, pohlcamp, cagnoni, mukh, thrun, and thompson in the system already. Vet D is the key to winning, and brining up rooks in very sheltered mins rarely. On the other hand, young forwards are the key to winning as we see with Ek, Celly, and smith, all of which can be big players at age 21 or younger (something much tougher fo D).

I would rather spend big bucks and future assets on getting legit top 4 NHL D in here, and let the kids take over the offensive reins.

 

[Jargon]

Personally, Id rather take another forward with the first pick. This year has shown, clear as day to me, that vet D are key. We have dick, pohlcamp, cagnoni, mukh, thrun, and thompson in the system already. Vet D is the key to winning, and brining up rooks in very sheltered mins rarely. On the other hand, young forwards are the key to winning as we see with Ek, Celly, and smith, all of which can be big players at age 21 or younger (something much tougher fo D).

I would rather spend big bucks and future assets on getting legit top 4 NHL D in here, and let the kids take over the offensive reins.

The hardest players to get through trade/FA are top tier defensemen. If we have the ability to draft a defenseman with a high ceiling, I think we have to take it. We have a very full cupboard forward-wise, our defense is still fairly bare.

 

[coooldude]

Personally, Id rather take another forward with the first pick. This year has shown, clear as day to me, that vet D are key. We have dick, pohlcamp, cagnoni, mukh, thrun, and thompson in the system already. Vet D is the key to winning, and brining up rooks in very sheltered mins rarely. On the other hand, young forwards are the key to winning as we see with Ek, Celly, and smith, all of which can be big players at age 21 or younger (something much tougher fo D).

I would rather spend big bucks and future assets on getting legit top 4 NHL D in here, and let the kids take over the offensive reins.

Hasn't worked out for Toronto.

 

[sampler]

The hardest players to get through trade/FA are top tier defensemen. If we have the ability to draft a defenseman with a high ceiling, I think we have to take it. We have a very full cupboard forward-wise, our defense is still fairly bare.

We got three solid ones in the past 6 months (walman, cici, and Lilj), and they have fully revolutionized the team. It's not THAT hard, and I think its easier to draft high end F than high end D.

 

[TheBeard]

We got three solid ones in the past 6 months (walman, cici, and Lilj), and they have fully revolutionized the team. It's not THAT hard, and I think its easier to draft high end F than high end D.

I mean if you look at Florida and Vegas neither of their D-core is built around their own drafted high-end picks except for Elblad.

 

[hohosaregood]

Personally, Id rather take another forward with the first pick. This year has shown, clear as day to me, that vet D are key. We have dick, pohlcamp, cagnoni, mukh, thrun, and thompson in the system already. Vet D is the key to winning, and brining up rooks in very sheltered mins rarely. On the other hand, young forwards are the key to winning as we see with Ek, Celly, and smith, all of which can be big players at age 21 or younger (something much tougher fo D).

I would rather spend big bucks and future assets on getting legit top 4 NHL D in here, and let the kids take over the offensive reins.

Vet D hasn't been the key. Vet D wasn't the key last year. The key was puck movers from the blue line. The way this team plays was drastically different before bringing in Liljegren and Walman.

 

[coooldude]

We got three solid ones in the past 6 months (walman, cici, and Lilj), and they have fully revolutionized the team. It's not THAT hard, and I think its easier to draft high end F than high end D.

None of Walman, Ceci, and Lilj are top pairing D on cup contenders. We're not talking about "solid ones." I'm talking about defensemen that win you a cup.

I mean if you look at Florida and Vegas neither of their D-core is built around their own drafted high-end picks except for Elblad.

Florida "except for Ekblad", so... not Florida? Plus, OEL was 6OA.

And, Vegas - always an exception. But they still had a 4OA D (Pietrangelo) on the roster.

Not to mention, both Florida and Vegas were able to build through trade/FA in no small part because of no state taxes + low cost of living. So we really shouldn't be looking to them for guidance.

 

[sampler]

Ekblad was a #1 overall pick. We wont have one of those again (most likely), but Dick is the equivalent of a #7OA. The fact that he went #11 was less a factor of his skill as other GMs being weird. His draft position did not change who he is, and who he is seems to be a top line D to be.

I don't think we need another top line D to be. Of course, Id love one, but I think we need need more top line F's. We have 3 good young forwards. Zetterlund makes 4. We have about 3-5 very promising F's but nothing else surefire. I would love one more surefire top 6 F over a likely top 4 D.

And, look at the teams that win cups. How many have more than 1 homegrown (not traded for, Not UFA signed) Dman?

FLA: Kulikov and Ekblad.
VGK: Hague (although he was not a huge part)
Avs: Makar (Byram for 30 games).
TBL: Hedman

In other words, teams that win cups often have a single homegrown superstar (dick?), but thats it. Its not like they usually have multiple top 4Dmen, instead adding through trade and UFA.

Of course, our disagreement lends to the likely wisdom of the crowd: just take BPA wherever we pick.

 

[coooldude]

In other words, teams that win cups often have a single homegrown superstar (dick?), but thats it. Its not like they usually have multiple top 4Dmen, instead adding through trade and UFA.

Of course, our disagreement lends to the likely wisdom of the crowd: just take BPA wherever we pick.

This is not because teams draft one potential top player and stop there. It's more likely because it's really hard to draft even one superstar and homegrow them. The Avs drafted Byram even though they had Makar. Darnell Nurse didn't stop the oilers from drafting Bouchard. Only one of them looks like an actual #1D that could win a cup.

there is no wisdom of the crowd - BPA is a myth among fans. Teams take the best player they believe is available, which is different than some objective BPA, and as our own Chris Morehouse explained well last year pre-draft, this incorporates your team's subjective assessment of "best" skill and potential, your team's existing pipeline, and your team's future projected needs. "Take BPA" is lazy and inaccurate with how the actual professionals assess draft picks.

 

[TheBeard]

None of Walman, Ceci, and Lilj are top pairing D on cup contenders. We're not talking about "solid ones." I'm talking about defensemen that win you a cup.


Florida "except for Ekblad", so... not Florida? Plus, OEL was 6OA.

And, Vegas - always an exception. But they still had a 4OA D (Pietrangelo) on the roster.

Not to mention, both Florida and Vegas were able to build through trade/FA in no small part because of no state taxes + low cost of living. So we really shouldn't be looking to them for guidance.

I mean ekblad was probably their worst d-man in the playoffs.

 

[sampler]

This is not because teams draft one potential top player and stop there. It's more likely because it's really hard to draft even one superstar and homegrow them. The Avs drafted Byram even though they had Makar. Darnell Nurse didn't stop the oilers from drafting Bouchard. Only one of them looks like an actual #1D that could win a cup.

there is no wisdom of the crowd - BPA is a myth among fans. Teams take the best player they believe is available, which is different than some objective BPA, and as our own Chris Morehouse explained well last year pre-draft, this incorporates your team's subjective assessment of "best" skill and potential, your team's existing pipeline, and your team's future projected needs. "Take BPA" is lazy and inaccurate with how the actual professionals assess draft picks.

of course BPA is team by team specific. Otherwise, drafts would always go perfectly as a melding of central scouting all of the other scouting services. The draft would be boring to watch accordingly.

I am not sure what the team needs are though.
1. Goaltending is set, I would think. So no goalies in the top 5 rounds for a couple years.
2. At Forward: we have smith, celly, and ek as clear top 6 forwards of the future. Then we have graf, gush, and bordy as potential forwards, but increasingly less likely. Then Musty, cherny, halts, and bystedt as possibiliies (lund, Laubach, Rimashevsky, etc and the like seem very very long shots).
3. At D, we have no current young NHL top 4 Dmen: Thrun, thompson have some NHL experience, but neither looks like top 4 material. Dick is the only grade A+ prospect, though cags looks like a real possibility. Then pohlcamp, LSW, Landen, and Mukh are the other four possibilities.

I suppose, looking at that pool, another super high end D prospect in the '25 draft wouldnt be a bad way to go. I guess I just find that D prospects miss more often (only 6 slots available) versus O prospects which have 12 spots available and far less pressure. Way more 18-21 year old forward stars than similar aged Dmen.

 

[Jargon]

of course BPA is team by team specific. Otherwise, drafts would always go perfectly as a melding of central scouting all of the other scouting services. The draft would be boring to watch accordingly.

I am not sure what the team needs are though.
1. Goaltending is set, I would think. So no goalies in the top 5 rounds for a couple years.
2. At Forward: we have smith, celly, and ek as clear top 6 forwards of the future. Then we have graf, gush, and bordy as potential forwards, but increasingly less likely. Then Musty, cherny, halts, and bystedt as possibiliies (lund, Laubach, Rimashevsky, etc and the like seem very very long shots).
3. At D, we have no current young NHL top 4 Dmen: Thrun, thompson have some NHL experience, but neither looks like top 4 material. Dick is the only grade A+ prospect, though cags looks like a real possibility. Then pohlcamp, LSW, Landen, and Mukh are the other four possibilities.

I suppose, looking at that pool, another super high end D prospect in the '25 draft wouldnt be a bad way to go. I guess I just find that D prospects miss more often (only 6 slots available) versus O prospects which have 12 spots available and far less pressure. Way more 18-21 year old forward stars than similar aged Dmen.

It’s just much easier to sign top 6 guys (ie Toffoli) or trade for them (Meier trade for Devils, etc) that can help fill any roles our prospects cannot. Those high end defensemen are much harder to get because there just isn’t that many of them.

But I think if we’re picking 10th or something and there’s an obviously better forward than D, I don’t think they’ll reach just for the sake of getting a defenseman… it’s just that it would be really nice if this draft yielded a Dickinson-quality Dman.

 

[matt trick]

There are 134 guys who average 18:26 a night (that's effectively my top 4 cutoff)- though injuries, tenure, team depth all play a role. My first cut off guy was Zub, who'd be our top pairing RHD. Lilji and Fabbro were 7th dmen, now they are top 4. Here are those drafted in the past 10 years (Zub also was undrafted!)

'22: Hutson, Mintuykov
'21: Power, Edvinsson, Evans, Moser, Zellweger, L. Hughes, Clarke
'20: Faber, Sanderson, Guhle, Drysdale, Andre
'19: Seider, Vlasic, Byram, York, Harley, Broberg, Lacombe
'18: Hughes, Dahlin, Dobson, Bouchard, Bahl, Romanov, K'Andre Miller, Durzi, Kesselring, Fehervary, Sandin
'17: Makar, Heiskanen, Anderson, Ferraro, Samberg, Kovacevic, Liljigren
'16: Sergachev, McAvoy, Hronek, Fox, Girard, Chychrun, Lindgren, Fabbro
'15: Werenski, Anderson, Provorov, Gavrikov, Chabot, Hanafin, Dunn, Carrier, Mikkola, Roy, Carlo, Cernak, Lauzon

Aside from the very best, these guys probably aren't long term options for SJ's window
'14: Sanheim, Montor, Toews, Ekblad, Forsling, Walman, Petterson, Middleton
'13: Jones, Morrisey, Weeger, Pulock, Theodore, Pesce, Nurse, Risto, Zadorov, Soucy
'12: Parayko, Mattheson, Ceci, Severson, Lindell, Slavin, McCabe, Skjei, Reilly, Lindholm, Pelech, Trouba, Grelyzck, Maata, Kulak, GhostBear

Finding top 4 d-men (or at least top 4 fill-in capable) isn't impossible. I'd bet on Grier grabbing another this summer. Walman, Ceci, Liljigren, Fabbro, Durzi, Moser, Sergachev, Broberg, Carrier, Roy, Pesce, Skjei, Zadorov, Montour, and Bahl have moved this year. None of those guys are #1 (maybe not even #2). However, all but Fabbro would be in our top 4 (and he may very well beat Lilly/Ceci out).

Getting #1 or top pairing guys is way, way harder. I'd be watching Miller, Dobson, Bouchard, Sanderson, Power, McAvoy, and Dahlin if any shake loose (I'd bet less than 1.5 move in the next 3 years). Jiricek was interesting as top pairing RHD with size and skill is our largest org asset gap. Grier could have cleanly beat Guerin's offer. The fact he did not, tells me we projected him as a 2nd pair guy, still worth having, but not worth outbuying for.

If you get Schaefer, and he & BDE both hit 80% of their ceilings, you can probably make do with #4/5 physical RHD filling out your top 4 for the next 15 years. One more pick invested in D likely results in C, D, G is likely solved for the next decade. You could have every prospect winger not on the roster miss and still be on your way to being a contender.

Don't get me wrong, I want Moorehouse and Grier taking the player they think is the best, but all things being equal, a future #1 Dman is the biggest hole.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

I'd be watching Miller, Dobson, Bouchard, Sanderson, Power, McAvoy, and Dahlin if any shake loose (I'd bet less than 1.5 move in the next 3 years).

My top target is Dobson. Hes one guy who i would be willing to give up quite a bit for. Maybe the Buffalo guys too, but at some point when do they become part of the issue there?

The others i dont see moving anytime soon.