It's an interesting discussion. Let's say for the sake of discussion:
Player | 95% Potential | 80% potential | 70% potential | Bust Potential |
Hagens | Hughes | Point | Larkin | 5% |
Martone | M. Tkachuk | Landeskog | Meier | 10% |
Schaefer | Heiskanen | Hanafin | Ekblad | 25% |
Frondell/Rybakin | Kadri | Granlund | Stephenson | 30% |
On the one hand, I'd probably first pick Heiskanen then Tkachuk to our team due to needs, on the other hand, I do think Hughes is the best player and will have the best career. I also think defenseman are just straight up harder to project then elite forwards.
Another year will make things more clear. I trust Grier and the staff to get it right, but this is shaping up to be quite a fascinating draft year already, and I anticipate we'll be bottom three at the end of it.
I think Martone plays more like a Rantanen (95% potential, by which I mean this is basically his ceiling) -- he's big, he's not a body banger though, and he's creative offensively and responsible defensively, at least from my limited watching. So, different than Tkachuk and Meier as a style comp.
There's a whole year to see whether Hagens solidifies his 1OA or if there's a 2-3 player tier at the top. Right now I think it's three All-star potential players (Hagens, Martone, Schaefer) and then the next tier might only be Ryabkin (top of lineup) before a bunch of top/mid lineup options. Again, huge amount of time left.
If the draft were today and we had 1OA, I think you still might have to go with Hagens. If they were all similar potential/performance prospects, we need Schaefer-types first then Martone-types before Hagens-types.
FWIW I put together a Sharks-centric watch list for our likely 3 top-35 picks. Mostly I'm focusing on D except for F names that might really pop or are in the top 5 currently. These are tiered, but not ranked. There might be players that will go top 10-15 that I'm just not tracking here. I barely knew anything about Jett Luchanko last year, for example, because he simply wasn't going to be a likely target for any of our picks.
1 - Generational/clear franchise
2 - All-star/possible franchise
3 - Top of lineup
4 - Bubble top of lineup / mid lineup
5 - Mid-lineup
6 - Bubble-mid
Feedback welcome!