2025 HHOF predictions

[Voight]

There is not a single scenario that I can think of where Marleau should get in.

Going off of his stats, this is what I'm seeing:
Top 10 finishes in goals: 2x (2009, 4th; 2010, 6th).
Top 10 finishes in assists: zero
Top 10 finishes in points: zero

First or second team All-Star: zero. If you really want to reach, I'll even try to add on the three times that he was voted to the All-Star Game (which honestly doesn't mean much when doing HHOF voting.)

Career points: 53rd, right in line with Bernie Nicholls, Vinnie Damphousse, Rod Brind'amour. Everybody above Nicholls (50th all-time) is in the HHOF or is ineligible due to being an active player. Now of those players, look at the points per game:
Nicholls: 1.07 ppg over 1127 GP
Damphousse: .87 ppg over 1378 GP
Marleau: .67 ppg over 1779 GP
Brind'amour: .8 ppg over 1484 GP

Awards: Lady Byng finalist 2x (2005-06, 3rd; 2013-14, 3rd). That's it. That's the list.

Games played? 1779. Congrats on being durable. Him and Phil Kessel can stand outside of the hall, discussing their games played records and being chosen to the ASG three times. Actually I'd put Phil in over Marleau, but that's for another thread. That's not saying I think Kessel should be in the Hall. It's more of "if you had to put one of these players in, which one would it be and why?"

But what about being 25th all-time in goals? You're going to climb up the all-time charts when you play almost 1800 games. Out of all of the members of the 500 Goal Club, Marleau has the lowest goals per game at .32 gpg. The literal definition of compiler.

If the HHOF decides they want to expand and want to do a HOVG down the hall from the Hall, then I would absolutely induct Marleau. He was a very good player for a long time. But otherwise, he's on the outside looking in. Being in the goal scoring top 10 twice, having no awards, and being a Byng finalist just isn't enough.

Marleau had no business being in the NHL when he broke the record. Sharks helped him out as a favour, but really all he is is the answer to a trivia question.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

would anybody disagree that if you were forced to choose one of either marleau and pavelski for the hall everybody would choose pavelski?

and yet marleau will be the one that gets in and pavelski (rightfully) won’t

 

[Gorskyontario]

Just curious but why exactly is Ryan Getzlaf better than Theo Fleury?

 

[The Panther]

Just curious but why exactly is Ryan Getzlaf better than Theo Fleury?

This might make a good thread topic. I leave you to it...

 

[Giotrapani91]

as a thought experiment here are the players who overlapped significantly with daddy tkachuk’s career that imo were better than him

chelios
leetch
barrasso
beezer
richter
modano
lafontaine
roenick
leclair
maybe housley
maybe doug weight

not counting hull

not counting 80s guys like langway and mullen

idk if the 10th or 12th best american player of the 90s needs to be in the hall of fame

Half that list is inducted only John LeClair, Doug Weight, beezer & Mike Richter have yet to be enshrined. I'd say Tkachuk is the 9th or tenth best forward the 7th best to have 1000 plus points.

 

[Giotrapani91]

as a thought experiment here are the players who overlapped significantly with daddy tkachuk’s career that imo were better than him

chelios
leetch
barrasso
beezer
richter
modano
lafontaine
roenick
leclair
maybe housley
maybe doug weight

not counting hull

not counting 80s guys like langway and mullen

idk if the 10th or 12th best american player of the 90s needs to be in the hall of fame

I agree with you Richter and vanbiesbrouck belong in,, doug weight maybe I'll say borderline for him. But the others on your list have been inducted.

 

[Giotrapani91]

Not unless science and technology improve enough in 2025 to the point that either a time-machine takes us all back to 2012, or they are simply reverted back to their 2012-selves, no.

I could definitely see Kane taking gaudreau's spot in the four nations cup and maybe Kane is only going on 36, or they'll ask another young NHLer maybe Andrew copp whos 31 on the 3rd or 4th line to replace Johnny hockey.

 

[Giotrapani91]

Just curious but why exactly is Ryan Getzlaf better than Theo Fleury?

Getzlaf is borderline theoren fleury should be in same with alexader mogilny

 

[VanIslander]

Chara is the slam dunk Vegas sportsbook bet.

 

[Giotrapani91]

If they do t induct marleau, than I have either tkachuk, Cujo or mogilny making it if not them maybe rod the bod.

 

[Crosby2010]

If they do t induct marleau, than I have either tkachuk, Cujo or mogilny making it if not them maybe rod the bod.

Even though there has been some bad choices for the HHOF lately I don't think we ought to make it worse. Marleau was a good player and a guy who played a lot of games. I cringed in Marleau's final season because he really had no business playing and wasn't roster worthy anymore. I knew when he would pass Howe's games played record the media would have convulsions over it and all of the sudden would act as if Marleau was a Hall of Famer all along and that this had nothing to do with it. Sort of how Andreychuk or Nieuwendyk got in for different reasons. Andreychuk was never talked about as a HHOFer in his career but when he hoisted a Cup as captain at the end of his career there became a lot of revisionist history about him. Ditto for Nieuwendyk when it came to winning a Cup with three different teams. His legend became bigger than how good he actually was. He was good, as was Andreychuk, but they don't belong in the HHOF. Marleau I am afraid will get this same sort of treatment and worship and it will be annoying. We are talking about a 0.67 PPG for his career.

And BrindAmour doesn't belong either, although he deserves it more than Marleau for sure. Nor does Pavelski and to be honest neither does Tkachuk. But if there is a guy who is going to benefit greatly from nepotism it is Keith Tkachuk. Because the longer his boys are in the NHL as the players they are the more it helps Keith's cause.

I am okay with Cujo not in, as goalies are pretty much the only position where you can say the truly elite make it. Almost. But still, it's the best one. Mogilny was wildly inconsistent in his career. Too many gaps.

Just curious but why exactly is Ryan Getzlaf better than Theo Fleury?

Not sure if he is. I'd put both in. Both are good enough to be at the normal barometer that the HHOF should be following. Both are well above the new age barometer with lower standards that the Hall has adopted in recent years though.

 

[carjackmalone]

Legacy inductees

Rick Martin,Carl Brewer,Theo,Fluery,Markus Naslund,

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

Ditto for Nieuwendyk when it came to winning a Cup with three different teams. His legend became bigger than how good he actually was. He was good, as was Andreychuk, but they don't belong in the HHOF. Marleau I am afraid will get this same sort of treatment and worship and it will be annoying. We are talking about a 0.67 PPG for his career.

Here's a tangent, but going back to 1991 or so, I had wondered then if Nieuwendyk shared a similar trade value to Luc Robitaille. They're the same age, both won a Calder trophy, both were consistent 40-50 goal scorers up to that point. Up to that point, Robitaille accrued more points of course, made four consecutive 1st All Star Teams in a row, but Nieuwendyk was very productive in his own right, playing in All Star games, playing ahead of Doug Gilmore as the team's #1 center, while the Flames were hovering around 1st in GF/GA as a team.

I'm actually surprised that Niewendyk's career point total (1126), doesn't look that bad relative to his games played (1257), seeing how the last season he averaged a PPG was in 1995, and he would still go on to play parts of 12 more seasons.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Ditto for Nieuwendyk when it came to winning a Cup with three different teams. His legend became bigger than how good he actually was.

It's crazy how disconnected Nieuwendyk's reputation became, from his actual level of performance. He led his team in scoring in the playoffs one time, in 16 attempts. He won the Conn Smythe despite his team's #1 centre outscoring him, and contributing far more defensively(*). He was maybe the 15th most valuable Devil in 2003. But "6 GWG's and 3 Cups with 3 teams" is all anyone remembers.

(*) Yes, Nieuwendyk scored some big goals for the Stars in 1999. He wasn't a terrible choice, but it felt like Justin Williams winning it over Anze Kopitar in 2014. The "narrative" was more important than the substance. Modano got 3 game winning assists and a whole bunch of important goals/assists that didn't fit under the narrow definition of "game winning", so I think the perceived gap between the timeliness of their scoring was exaggerated.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Nieuwendyk was very productive in his own right, playing in All Star games, playing ahead of Doug Gilmore as the team's #1 center, while the Flames were hovering around 1st in GF/GA as a team.

one of my favourite zingers of all time. cliff fletcher in the spring of 1992: “doug risebrough thought joe nieuwendyk was his number one center. now he knows it was doug gilmour.”

It's crazy how disconnected Nieuwendyk's reputation became, from his actual level of performance. He led his team in scoring in the playoffs one time, in 16 attempts. He won the Conn Smythe despite his team's #1 centre outscoring him, and contributing far more defensively(*). He was maybe the 15th most valuable Devil in 2003. But "6 GWG's and 3 Cups with 3 teams" is all anyone remembers.

(*) Yes, Nieuwendyk scored some big goals for the Stars in 1999. He wasn't a terrible choice, but it felt like Justin Williams winning it over Anze Kopitar in 2014. The "narrative" was more important than the substance. Modano got 3 game winning assists and a whole bunch of important goals/assists that didn't fit under the narrow definition of "game winning", so I think the perceived gap between the timeliness of their scoring was exaggerated.

what was the biggest farce? claude lemieux in 95, nieuwendyk in 99, or j will in 2014?

tbh might have been nieuwendyk. at best he was the third best star, after belfour and modano, but that’s before considering the defencemen. (OT but ftr doughty was my 2014 conn smythe)

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

one more nieuwendyk tidbit: i have a clear memory of reading the back of this card bitd

after starting his career with a four year run of 51, 51, 45, and 45 goals, he never hit 40 again.

 

[kaiser matias]

one more nieuwendyk tidbit: i have a clear memory of reading the back of this card bitd

View attachment 918969

after starting his career with a four year run of 51, 51, 45, and 45 goals, he never hit 40 again.

I have the same card, and it's hilarious to read that in hindsight.

 

[Crosby2010]

Here's a tangent, but going back to 1991 or so, I had wondered then if Nieuwendyk shared a similar trade value to Luc Robitaille. They're the same age, both won a Calder trophy, both were consistent 40-50 goal scorers up to that point. Up to that point, Robitaille accrued more points of course, made four consecutive 1st All Star Teams in a row, but Nieuwendyk was very productive in his own right, playing in All Star games, playing ahead of Doug Gilmore as the team's #1 center, while the Flames were hovering around 1st in GF/GA as a team.

I'm actually surprised that Niewendyk's career point total (1126), doesn't look that bad relative to his games played (1257), seeing how the last season he averaged a PPG was in 1995, and he would still go on to play parts of 12 more seasons.

I think the reason for him not having as bad of a PPG as you would think is because he notched up the points early in his career, those first 4 years especially. After that he has some years that were really down years. 1996, 1997 come to mind. He was not even close to the radar for Canada's 1998 Olympic team in the summer of 1997 and then a good start to the season and he makes the team. Finished 5th and 6th in All-star voting at his best. His only Hart votes are 12th in 1998. I get it, he was one of those jack of all trades types. Like BrindAmour. Your classic 2nd line centre that you wanted on your team, but not for your 1st line centre. He was good on faceoffs, had that excellent hand/eye co-ordination he got from playing lacrosse. Tipped shots in that others didn't and was that type of player Team Canada usually liked on their teams. But a Hall of Famer? Nah.

It's crazy how disconnected Nieuwendyk's reputation became, from his actual level of performance. He led his team in scoring in the playoffs one time, in 16 attempts. He won the Conn Smythe despite his team's #1 centre outscoring him, and contributing far more defensively(*). He was maybe the 15th most valuable Devil in 2003. But "6 GWG's and 3 Cups with 3 teams" is all anyone remembers.

(*) Yes, Nieuwendyk scored some big goals for the Stars in 1999. He wasn't a terrible choice, but it felt like Justin Williams winning it over Anze Kopitar in 2014. The "narrative" was more important than the substance. Modano got 3 game winning assists and a whole bunch of important goals/assists that didn't fit under the narrow definition of "game winning", so I think the perceived gap between the timeliness of their scoring was exaggerated.

Oh for sure, there have been worse choices over time. Nieuwendyk tied a record held by Sakic for most game winners in a postseason with 6. Brad Richards has since claimed this record as his own with 7 in 2004. But in 1999 that was the record. Modano outscores him by a couple of points, plays 6 more minutes per game than him. He wouldn't have been a bad choice either. Nieuwendyk did score a couple of overtime winners too. I get it, and it isn't an awful choice. You could probably flip a coin. Belfour I thought could have been in the mix too. But it is the obsession the media had with him being this guy that won with three different teams. He's 6th in scoring on the 1989 Flames. 2nd in scoring on the 1999 Stars. 9th in scoring on the 2003 Devils (Scott Stevens ties him). But 3rd on the 2000 Stars with 10 points in 23 games. Might be part of why they lost to the Devils that year. Had 1 goal in 6 games in the 2000 finals. 0 assists. Then the 2004 Leafs he has 6 goals and 0 assists in 9 games. It is okay, nothing special, but we all remember the Game 7 goals against Patrick Lalime. Both were bad angle shots that should have never went through. Sure he scored, but it is almost as if he gets the hero treatment more than Lalime should get the goat treatment.

116 points in 158 playoff games isn't legendary. It is a lot of postseason hockey but not a deal breaker to get you in the HHOF. He did miss the 1998 playoffs and that hurt the Stars, I get it. Hey, I'd like the guy on my team in the postseason, jack of all trades, he was hardly a guy that would cost you something. But we are talking about one great playoff run and that's it. Mike Keane, Claude Lemieux, Mark Recchi and - hang onto your hats - Al Arbour all won Cups with three different teams. As a player only Recchi belongs. And what bugs me is that Nieuwendyk got in pretty much right away. Retired in 2007 and inducted in 2011. How on earth does he get in before Adam Oates? And I am assuming the HHOF committee plugged their nose and inducted a deserving member in Gilmour in 2011 the same year Nieuwendyk just so people wouldn't be wondering why Gilmour his own teammate couldn't get in over Nieuwendyk. Reminds of when Fred Shero got inducted out of nowhere (I am okay with him in there) just so they could put Pat Burns in and not have a coach on the outside who clearly deserved it.

 

[Giotrapani91]

I think the reason for him not having as bad of a PPG as you would think is because he notched up the points early in his career, those first 4 years especially. After that he has some years that were really down years. 1996, 1997 come to mind. He was not even close to the radar for Canada's 1998 Olympic team in the summer of 1997 and then a good start to the season and he makes the team. Finished 5th and 6th in All-star voting at his best. His only Hart votes are 12th in 1998. I get it, he was one of those jack of all trades types. Like BrindAmour. Your classic 2nd line centre that you wanted on your team, but not for your 1st line centre. He was good on faceoffs, had that excellent hand/eye co-ordination he got from playing lacrosse. Tipped shots in that others didn't and was that type of player Team Canada usually liked on their teams. But a Hall of Famer? Nah.



Oh for sure, there have been worse choices over time. Nieuwendyk tied a record held by Sakic for most game winners in a postseason with 6. Brad Richards has since claimed this record as his own with 7 in 2004. But in 1999 that was the record. Modano outscores him by a couple of points, plays 6 more minutes per game than him. He wouldn't have been a bad choice either. Nieuwendyk did score a couple of overtime winners too. I get it, and it isn't an awful choice. You could probably flip a coin. Belfour I thought could have been in the mix too. But it is the obsession the media had with him being this guy that won with three different teams. He's 6th in scoring on the 1989 Flames. 2nd in scoring on the 1999 Stars. 9th in scoring on the 2003 Devils (Scott Stevens ties him). But 3rd on the 2000 Stars with 10 points in 23 games. Might be part of why they lost to the Devils that year. Had 1 goal in 6 games in the 2000 finals. 0 assists. Then the 2004 Leafs he has 6 goals and 0 assists in 9 games. It is okay, nothing special, but we all remember the Game 7 goals against Patrick Lalime. Both were bad angle shots that should have never went through. Sure he scored, but it is almost as if he gets the hero treatment more than Lalime should get the goat treatment.

116 points in 158 playoff games isn't legendary. It is a lot of postseason hockey but not a deal breaker to get you in the HHOF. He did miss the 1998 playoffs and that hurt the Stars, I get it. Hey, I'd like the guy on my team in the postseason, jack of all trades, he was hardly a guy that would cost you something. But we are talking about one great playoff run and that's it. Mike Keane, Claude Lemieux, Mark Recchi and - hang onto your hats - Al Arbour all won Cups with three different teams. As a player only Recchi belongs. And what bugs me is that Nieuwendyk got in pretty much right away. Retired in 2007 and inducted in 2011. How on earth does he get in before Adam Oates? And I am assuming the HHOF committee plugged their nose and inducted a deserving member in Gilmour in 2011 the same year Nieuwendyk just so people wouldn't be wondering why Gilmour his own teammate couldn't get in over Nieuwendyk. Reminds of when Fred Shero got inducted out of nowhere (I am okay with him in there) just so they could put Pat Burns in and not have a coach on the outside who clearly deserved it.

I'd argue Modano for the conn smythe trophy in 1999 he may had only had 5 goals but he had 18 assists, and 23 points which led the stars

 

[Crosby2010]

I'd argue Modano for the conn smythe trophy in 1999 he may had only had 5 goals but he had 18 assists, and 23 points which led the stars

Not a bad choice. I actually thought it sort of fit the narrative they may have wanted as well, Modano wasn't the captain - Hatcher was - but having their best player and one of the premier players hoist the Conn Smythe might have been poetic. I can see with the 6 game winners how it went to Nieuwendyk. I really can. I can see Modano too though as his two-way play was good by this time.

 

[DitchMarner]

I think the reason for him not having as bad of a PPG as you would think is because he notched up the points early in his career, those first 4 years especially. After that he has some years that were really down years. 1996, 1997 come to mind. He was not even close to the radar for Canada's 1998 Olympic team in the summer of 1997 and then a good start to the season and he makes the team. Finished 5th and 6th in All-star voting at his best. His only Hart votes are 12th in 1998. I get it, he was one of those jack of all trades types. Like BrindAmour. Your classic 2nd line centre that you wanted on your team, but not for your 1st line centre. He was good on faceoffs, had that excellent hand/eye co-ordination he got from playing lacrosse. Tipped shots in that others didn't and was that type of player Team Canada usually liked on their teams. But a Hall of Famer? Nah.

Nieuwendyk is kind of another Toews in that people talk about him as if he oozed leadership and had a natural knack for winning. Toews was the better player of the two. Some players develop that reputation of being "winners" and it makes people rank them higher than they would just based on stats and award voting records.

Nieuwendyk was a very good player but was basically in the same tier as guys like Brind'Amour, Weight, Goring, Brad Richards. They weren't quite franchise guys, but you could win with them as high-end second line Cs or in a 1A, 1B situation or as part of a very deep centre spine. Brind'Amour and Weight won their only Cups playing together in CAR (where Eric Staal was part of the centre group as well). Richards, Nieuwendyk and Goring each won the Conn Smythe trophy when each one had a higher-profile centre on his team (although Richards was clearly superior to Lecavalier in the '04 season and playoffs). Nieuwendyk stands out a bit more than the other guys because of those 50 goal seasons at the beginning of his career.

 

[Crosby2010]

Nieuwendyk is kind of another Toews in that people talk about him as if he oozed leadership and had a natural knack for winning. Toews was the better player of the two. Some players develop that reputation of being "winners" and it makes people rank them higher than they would just based on stats and award voting records.

Nieuwendyk was a very good player but was basically in the same tier as guys like Brind'Amour, Weight, Goring, Brad Richards. They weren't quite franchise guys, but you could with with them as high-end second line Cs or in a 1A, 1B situation or as part of a very deep centre spine. Brind'Amour and Weight won their only Cups playing together in CAR (where Eric Staal was part of the centre group as well). Richards, Nieuwendyk and Goring each won the Conn Smythe trophy when each one had a higher-profile centre on his team (although Richards was clearly superior to Lecavalier in the '04 season and playoffs). Nieuwendyk stands out a bit more than the other guys because of those 50 goal seasons at the beginning of his career.

I'm okay with Toews, because he was the captain, won three Cups, won the Conn Smythe as well and literally did win everything he could have team-wise. He was higher on the pedestal of centres in his career than Nieuwendyk ever was. He may have been over-loved by the media and fans at the time, but I think his knack for winning goes back to the World Juniors even. At least that is when I got introduced to him. Toews will get in and no one will argue, or should argue. Nieuwendyk got in without there even being a debate about it.

 

[yada]

would anybody disagree that if you were forced to choose one of either marleau and pavelski for the hall everybody would choose pavelski?

and yet marleau will be the one that gets in and pavelski (rightfully) won’t

No marleau over pavelski, pavelski aged better but no. Pavelski often gets thought of as a playoff performer but he has 2 more goals 16 more points in 6 more games. Pavelski didnt kill penalties with the sharks (not sure about stars) while marleau did.

Pavelski 201 74 69 143
Marleau 195 72 55 127

 

[seventieslord]

No marleau over pavelski, pavelski aged better but no. Pavelski often gets thought of as a playoff performer but he has 2 more goals 16 more points in 6 more games. Pavelski didnt kill penalties with the sharks (not sure about stars) while marleau did.

Pavelski 201 74 69 143
Marleau 195 72 55 127

16 more points in 6 more games is, in fact, a significant upgrade.

And, although neither one of them has a penalty killing resume that really moves the needle, Pavelski had one PPGA every 8-9 games, else Marleau had one every 10 games. Overall, Pavelski actually killed penalties more often. (He did kill penalties with the Sharks)

 

[Crosby2010]

No marleau over pavelski, pavelski aged better but no. Pavelski often gets thought of as a playoff performer but he has 2 more goals 16 more points in 6 more games. Pavelski didnt kill penalties with the sharks (not sure about stars) while marleau did.

Pavelski 201 74 69 143
Marleau 195 72 55 127

Oh boy please, can we refrain from normalizing the idea of Pavelski or Marleau in the Hall of Fame? There are enough of these guys in where their names just keep getting repeated until we just assume that they were always superstars all along.