OT: 2024 Washington Commanders off-season thread: change we can believe in!

[bacchist]

We're just fine at WR, and we have TEs and RBs to get involved in the passing game. We'll be as good as our line allows.

 

[Jags]

More weapons hopefully puts less pressure on the OL since in theory the WRs could get open more quickly, plus the defense would need to focus more resources on coverage forcing them to be a bit more apprehensive in terms of pass rushing.

100% this. In a world where you have a questionable O-line with new personnel and a new coach, having a good set of WRs, TEs and option backs is pretty crucial. If Dyami Brown is our #2 -- a guy who prior to this camp earned the nickname "50/50" from fans -- that's a potential issue.

Now if there are other receivers making noise that might pop, great. If Ertz is healthy and our other TEs deliver on their promise, awesome. And if we're able leverage the run/pass unpredictability of our 2 top backs, even better.

That's a lot of ifs and maybes though. So if we can land another real weapon, go for it. Giving up too much specifically for Aiyuk might be a little rich for my blood and we might benefit from taking the season to see what we really have, but I'm all for it if there's a good deal to be had for a difference-maker in the meantime.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[g00n]

Good.

My god, everything Snyder touched turned to shit. Like the reverse Midas touch. Some kind of shit alchemy.

 

[Cush]

Good.

My god, everything Snyder touched turned to shit. Like the reverse Midas touch. Some kind of shit alchemy.

The Gargamel of owners

 

[ynotcaps]

I've said before and will say again, I trust AP wrt Aiyuk. If they add him now at a price AP deems right, awesome.

I think the thing folks be missing here is that the price has already come down. If we were willing to give up TML or a 1st, BA would already be here -- but we weren't, so he's not. If we weren't going to give up those assets before, we sure as hell aren't going to now, when there are multiple top-flight receivers in similar contract impasses and a metric butt-load more players about to hit the waiver wire on cut-down day.

So the rumor is the 3rd we just got plus -- OK. Based on what's happened so far, we know that "plus" won't be TML or our 1st. So at most then, it's maybe our second. If that's the actual price, it ends up being our second, our 5th and Dotson for Aiyuk and 2 sevenths. Is that a terrible price for a top 10 WR to bookend with TML to give our rookie QB more weapons? Probably not.

 

[Random schmoe]

Aiyuk's salary asks are based on his performance to date (rightfully so). But he won't replicate that performance in Raljon or anywhere else if JD is getting crushed before he can set. He also wouldn't get as many opportunities with Terry McL in the lineup too.

(I mean, if you can get a guy like him cheaply in both trade cost and salary, sure, do it. Just don't expect him to have the same numbers he's had to date.)

 

[Roric]

I've said before and will say again, I trust AP wrt Aiyuk. If they add him now at a price AP deems right, awesome.

I think the thing folks be missing here is that the price has already come down. If we were willing to give up TML or a 1st, BA would already be here -- but we weren't, so he's not. If we weren't going to give up those assets before, we sure as hell aren't going to now, when there are multiple top-flight receivers in similar contract impasses and a metric butt-load more players about to hit the waiver wire on cut-down day.

So the rumor is the 3rd we just got plus -- OK. Based on what's happened so far, we know that "plus" won't be TML or our 1st. So at most then, it's maybe our second. If that's the actual price, it ends up being our second, our 5th and Dotson for Aiyuk and 2 sevenths. Is that a terrible price for a top 10 WR to bookend with TML to give our rookie QB more weapons? Probably not.

That's what I'm saying. We're allegedly back in talks with the 9ers about aiyuk even after turning down mclaurin and/or a first as the price. He's still in SF and not pittsburgh/cleveland wherever, even new england that offered him the most money by far.

He clearly wants to come here and SF doesn't want to lose him for nothing. AP knows this i.e. he has the leverage. It's just been a matter of waiting them out and now as they get more desperate, the price comes down and they give him a call. WSH gets a 3rd out of dotson to sweeten the deal and swoops in for the kill. AP knows what he's doing man

Wouldn't be surprised if a trade is made official tomorrow

 

[Ridley Simon]

I've said before and will say again, I trust AP wrt Aiyuk. If they add him now at a price AP deems right, awesome.

I think the thing folks be missing here is that the price has already come down. If we were willing to give up TML or a 1st, BA would already be here -- but we weren't, so he's not. If we weren't going to give up those assets before, we sure as hell aren't going to now, when there are multiple top-flight receivers in similar contract impasses and a metric butt-load more players about to hit the waiver wire on cut-down day.

So the rumor is the 3rd we just got plus -- OK. Based on what's happened so far, we know that "plus" won't be TML or our 1st. So at most then, it's maybe our second. If that's the actual price, it ends up being our second, our 5th and Dotson for Aiyuk and 2 sevenths. Is that a terrible price for a top 10 WR to bookend with TML to give our rookie QB more weapons? Probably not.

I concur with almost all of this post (I don’t think BA is top 10…..I’d say top 15-20, but that’s picking nits).

If GMAP/HCDQ wants BA, and they don’t sell our first — or any 1sts — to do it (or TM), then let’s go. Easy acceptance from this guy.

Aiyuk's salary asks are based on his performance to date (rightfully so). But he won't replicate that performance in Raljon or anywhere else if JD is getting crushed before he can set. He also wouldn't get as many opportunities with Terry McL in the lineup too.

(I mean, if you can get a guy like him cheaply in both trade cost and salary, sure, do it. Just don't expect him to have the same numbers he's had to date.)

I think he would get a LOT MORE opportunities with the Skins. Terry is one guy.

Niners have CMC, Kittle, AND Deebo. All are as likely (or more) to get pass attempts to them, as is Aiyuk.

Skins don’t have near the same types of weapons. AINEC.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Aiyuk's salary asks are based on his performance to date (rightfully so). But he won't replicate that performance in Raljon or anywhere else if JD is getting crushed before he can set. He also wouldn't get as many opportunities with Terry McL in the lineup too.

(I mean, if you can get a guy like him cheaply in both trade cost and salary, sure, do it. Just don't expect him to have the same numbers he's had to date.)

A lot more weapons to share the ball with in SF, and Aiyuk ate just fine there. I think his numbers here would be ones we’re happy with.

 

[ynotcaps]

Not to defend my ranking of BA as "top 10" (it was off-the-cuff), but I got curious about where he would rank so I just did a barely-half-assed research project:

Among NFL receivers since his draft year (2020), Aiyuk is 16th in yards (3,931) and tied for 12th in TDs (25). He's also 25th in targets (to the point about SF weapons), 22nd in receptions, and 4th in yds/rec.

For comparison, in that span TML is 13th in yards (4,364) and 23rd in TDs (18). (T. Kelce has more yds and TDs than both, but I excluded him as he's a TE.)

Of the 16 WRs with more yards than BA in that span, 12 are older (27+). Of the 13 with more TDs, 9 are older. And of the top yds/catch guys, only J. Jefferson is younger.

I'm not smart enough (or interested enough) to be able to figure out the number of Pythagorean regressions of pi to validate all this, but I think it's fair to say that of the WRs in their prime (24-28 ish?), he's in a tier with AJ Brown and DK Metcalf, behind the tier of Jefferson, Chase and Lamb, but ahead of the tier of DJ Moore, Chris Godwin (who's only 28), TML and Tee Higgins.

* One guy who fell a little short of inclusion due to lack of service time is Amon Ra St. Brown. I'd put him in the top of the second tier (the one I've subjectively placed BA in), but if he does his thing again this year, he goes into that #1 tier of young guys.

 

[Chokingdogs]

Has it been reported anywhere who is playing tonight?

“Starters” getting any time, or is this game gonna be 3rd/4th stringers and tackle dummy’s going the distance?

 

[bacchist]

Not to defend my ranking of BA as "top 10" (it was off-the-cuff), but I got curious about where he would rank so I just did a barely-half-assed research project:

Among NFL receivers since his draft year (2020), Aiyuk is 16th in yards (3,931) and tied for 12th in TDs (25). He's also 25th in targets (to the point about SF weapons), 22nd in receptions, and 4th in yds/rec.

For comparison, in that span TML is 13th in yards (4,364) and 23rd in TDs (18). (T. Kelce has more yds and TDs than both, but I excluded him as he's a TE.)

Of the 16 WRs with more yards than BA in that span, 12 are older (27+). Of the 13 with more TDs, 9 are older. And of the top yds/catch guys, only J. Jefferson is younger.

I'm not smart enough (or interested enough) to be able to figure out the number of Pythagorean regressions of pi to validate all this, but I think it's fair to say that of the WRs in their prime (24-28 ish?), he's in a tier with AJ Brown and DK Metcalf, behind the tier of Jefferson, Chase and Lamb, but ahead of the tier of DJ Moore, Chris Godwin (who's only 28), TML and Tee Higgins.

* One guy who fell a little short of inclusion due to lack of service time is Amon Ra St. Brown. I'd put him in the top of the second tier (the one I've subjectively placed BA in), but if he does his thing again this year, he goes into that #1 tier of young guys.

For whatever it is worth, PFF has him at #8 (Terry is at #18).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Not to defend my ranking of BA as "top 10" (it was off-the-cuff), but I got curious about where he would rank so I just did a barely-half-assed research project:

Among NFL receivers since his draft year (2020), Aiyuk is 16th in yards (3,931) and tied for 12th in TDs (25). He's also 25th in targets (to the point about SF weapons), 22nd in receptions, and 4th in yds/rec.

For comparison, in that span TML is 13th in yards (4,364) and 23rd in TDs (18). (T. Kelce has more yds and TDs than both, but I excluded him as he's a TE.)

Of the 16 WRs with more yards than BA in that span, 12 are older (27+). Of the 13 with more TDs, 9 are older. And of the top yds/catch guys, only J. Jefferson is younger.

I'm not smart enough (or interested enough) to be able to figure out the number of Pythagorean regressions of pi to validate all this, but I think it's fair to say that of the WRs in their prime (24-28 ish?), he's in a tier with AJ Brown and DK Metcalf, behind the tier of Jefferson, Chase and Lamb, but ahead of the tier of DJ Moore, Chris Godwin (who's only 28), TML and Tee Higgins.

* One guy who fell a little short of inclusion due to lack of service time is Amon Ra St. Brown. I'd put him in the top of the second tier (the one I've subjectively placed BA in), but if he does his thing again this year, he goes into that #1 tier of young guys.

Glad you posted this….I went and started to look at his various rankings also. He’s up there….now imagine him getting more targets….

 

[hockeykicker]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827811498392977448

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827812342173769871

 

[hockeykicker]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827822295777460473

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827822477570920744

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827823250824454627

 

[hockeykicker]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827824068378161218

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827824847654658298

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827826626362483093

 

[hockeykicker]

Has it been reported anywhere who is playing tonight?

“Starters” getting any time, or is this game gonna be 3rd/4th stringers and tackle dummy’s going the distance?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827843536860946936

No Daniels or really anyone starter playing

 

[kicksavedave]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827843536860946936

No Daniels or really anyone starter playing

Jamin Davis will play... he's not earned anything close to a starting role here this year. Good!

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827824068378161218

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827824847654658298

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827826626362483093

Josh Harris is doing pretty much everything the right way. The results will follow, but they won't be instant. He's rebuilding a world class franchise, brick by brick. I love Josh!

Dan Snyder was such a toilet!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Pre-draft Drake Maye supporters sweating him playing well I know it lol…

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Pre-draft Drake Maye supporters sweating him playing well I know it lol…

Looking good so far, but it’s starters vs backups so you’d assume he’d look at least decent.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I know it’s all dudes fighting for roster spots but this is a tough watch, especially on offense.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ridgeway noticeably good…

 

[Neil Racki]

Humpty

 

[Chokingdogs]

Time to watch Roadkill….seen enough of this.
Reminds me of pretty much every regular season game last year. lol.

Edit…in case it not clear, I’m aware of what this game is all aboot. I’m just getting uncomfortable flashbacks, that’s all.