Player Discussion: 2024 Vezina Winner Connor Hellebuyck

[jokesondee]

I guess he's been ok so far......

 

[ps241]

It is concerning that Chaz Lucius and Brad Lambert aren't lighting up the AHL as top prospects not with the big club. Ideally Cole Perfetti slots into the Blake Wheeler role. Blake Wheeler was 24 by the time he finally broke out. I think the rebuild is atleast 5 years away depending on whether we lose Dubois, Scheifele, Hellebuyck to free agency. I mean if Hellebuyck demanded a trade today, the Jets would be in a heap of trouble.

Lambert is only in his draft +1 season so there is no way he should be lighting up the AHL.

Lucius needs to stay healthy for a while.

 

[GNP]

I believe Helle's save percentage is around .932 or very close, and he's likely in the race for the Vezina. You gotta wonder what he'll want to resign -- I'll bet some pretty big bucks, and likely in the $ 10 - 11 million dollar range.

I wonder if the Jets are willing to pay a Goalie that much ?? I can see them going to $ 9 mil, but I think his market value is higher. I think he's a free agent after next season, I believe ? Do posters think he'll sign here ?

 

[GNP]

I am going to make a WILD statement! I may look BAD a few years from now however, I like going out on a limb and even if I am wrong, it is only 24 games in.

"Rick Bowness is going to save this franchise from having to go full rebuild in 2 years!"

Rick Bowness in my opinion is going to be the reason Connor Hellebuyck re-signs with the Jets. Rick Bowness in my opinion is going to be the reason Mark Scheifele doesn't demand a trade. Rick Bowness in my opinion is going to be the reason Blake Wheeler finishes his career a Winnipeg Jet. Rick Bowness in my opinion will be the biggest reason why Pierre-Luc Dubois re-signs with the Winnipeg Jets long-term!

This system Rick Bowness has implemented appears to have 100% buy in from top to bottom. He has turned this team completely around and has provided structure. I imagine the locker room is no longer a toxic cancer and possibly a positive atmosphere.

Good post, and I was thinking the same thing myself about these players. With Bowness as Coach, I think there's a very good chance PLD will resign here, irregardless of what's happened. Everybody wants to be on a winning team, and Bowness will guide this team to the "top."

 

[SLAYER]

Do posters think he'll sign here ?

If the money is right and the team is contending, yes. Although I believe he doesn't love the restrictions that Canada had the past couple of years. I think that winning and money are probably the number one consideration, though.

 

[Gm0ney]

I believe Helle's save percentage is around .932 or very close, and he's likely in the race for the Vezina. You gotta wonder what he'll want to resign -- I'll bet some pretty big bucks, and likely in the $ 10 - 11 million dollar range.

I wonder if the Jets are willing to pay a Goalie that much ?? I can see them going to $ 9 mil, but I think his market value is higher. I think he's a free agent after next season, I believe ? Do posters think he'll sign here ?

Let's go over some past Vezina winners' peak contracts:

Ryan Miller (1 win, 2010, no Cups): 11.02% x 5 years (signed before Vezina)
Tim Thomas (1, 2011, 1 Cup): 8.82% x 4 years (signed before Vezina and Cup win, was over 35 at the time)
Henrik Lundqvist: (1, 2012, no Cups): 13.22% x 7 years (signed in 2013, age 31)
Sergei Bobrovsky: (2, 2013, 2017, no Cups): 12.27% x 7 years (signed in 2019, age 30)
Tuukka Rask: (1, 2014, no Cups): 10.89% x 8 years (signed before Vezina)
Carey Price: (1, 2015, no Cups): 14% x 8 years (signed in 2017, age 30)
Braden Holtby: (1, 2016, 1 Cup): 8.54% x 5 years (signed before Vezina and Cup)
Pekka Rinne: (1, 2018, no Cups): 10.89% x 7 years (signed before Vezina)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (1, 2019, 2 Cups): 11.66% x 8 years (signed in 2019 after Vezina, before Cups, age 25)
Connor Hellebuyck (1, 2020, no Cups): 7.76% x 6 years (signed before Vezina)
Marc-Andre Fleury (1, 2021, 3 Cups - 2 as backup): 8.82% x 7 years (signed before Vezina and Cups)
Igor Shesterkin (1, 2022, 0 Cups): 6.95% x 4 years (signed before Vezina)

So the average for goalies who signed before they won any Vezinas or Cups is 9.2% of the cap at the time of signing x 5.75 years (Hellebuyck signed under that very circumstance for a team-friendly 7.76% x 6). The average for goalies who signed after they won Vezinas and/or Cups is 12.75% of the cap at the time of signing x 7.5 years (average age: 29 - dragged down by Vasi who was only 25. Price, Bob and Lundqvist were either 30 or 31).

Current cap is $82.5M - probably going to be $85-ish by the end of Hellebuyck's current deal in 2024. So an average deal would be $10.8M x 7 or 8 years. He'll be 32 going on 33 at the start of his next contract. If the Jets won't pay him that, you can bet someone will.

 

[DRW204]

here are the highest cap-hit goalies, and how they're performing

it would not surprise me at all if Helle ends up #1 highest paid when his next contract comes around. he's consistently been great, and is paramount to our team success.

idk shit about goalie mechanics, longevity etc but i feel his style of play, and overall lack of injuries through his career might have his play age better as opposed to goalies that are heavily reliant on athleticism. but ill defer to others.

 

[Daximus]

Let's go over some past Vezina winners' peak contracts:

Ryan Miller (1 win, 2010, no Cups): 11.02% x 5 years (signed before Vezina)
Tim Thomas (1, 2011, 1 Cup): 8.82% x 4 years (signed before Vezina and Cup win, was over 35 at the time)
Henrik Lundqvist: (1, 2012, no Cups): 13.22% x 7 years (signed in 2013, age 31)
Sergei Bobrovsky: (2, 2013, 2017, no Cups): 12.27% x 7 years (signed in 2019, age 30)
Tuukka Rask: (1, 2014, no Cups): 10.89% x 8 years (signed before Vezina)
Carey Price: (1, 2015, no Cups): 14% x 8 years (signed in 2017, age 30)
Braden Holtby: (1, 2016, 1 Cup): 8.54% x 5 years (signed before Vezina and Cup)
Pekka Rinne: (1, 2018, no Cups): 10.89% x 7 years (signed before Vezina)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (1, 2019, 2 Cups): 11.66% x 8 years (signed in 2019 after Vezina, before Cups, age 25)
Connor Hellebuyck (1, 2020, no Cups): 7.76% x 6 years (signed before Vezina)
Marc-Andre Fleury (1, 2021, 3 Cups - 2 as backup): 8.82% x 7 years (signed before Vezina and Cups)
Igor Shesterkin (1, 2022, 0 Cups): 6.95% x 4 years (signed before Vezina)

So the average for goalies who signed before they won any Vezinas or Cups is 9.2% of the cap at the time of signing x 5.75 years (Hellebuyck signed under that very circumstance for a team-friendly 7.76% x 6). The average for goalies who signed after they won Vezinas and/or Cups is 12.75% of the cap at the time of signing x 7.5 years (average age: 29 - dragged down by Vasi who was only 25. Price, Bob and Lundqvist were either 30 or 31).

Current cap is $82.5M - probably going to be $85-ish by the end of Hellebuyck's current deal in 2024. So an average deal would be $10.8M x 7 or 8 years. He'll be 32 going on 33 at the start of his next contract. If the Jets won't pay him that, you can bet someone will.

Yeah I'd say there's almost no chance he gets below $9.5 and trending a lot closer to $11.

He's by far the best player on the team, zero doubt about that.

 

[Daximus]

The thing that gets me currently is Sorokin is considered to be on par or better right now. While having worse stats in every single measurable category.

 

[hockeyarena]

here are the highest cap-hit goalies, and how they're performing

View attachment 619085

it would not surprise me at all if Helle ends up #1 highest paid when his next contract comes around. he's consistently been great, and is paramount to our team success.

idk shit about goalie mechanics, longevity etc but i feel his style of play, and overall lack of injuries through his career might have his play age better as opposed to goalies that are heavily reliant on athleticism. but ill defer to others.

wow that's actually nuts. Out of the top 10 paid goalies Hellebuyck is the only one whose worth the money (i'm ignoring Murray because his sample size is so small).

 

[DRW204]

they're back-to-back in sv%, and in GA vs xGA. it's not like they're far off, & 1 game can have them flip-flop. Helle has been better but slightly. ive seen them usually on-par with each other, or helle 1 and sorokin 2 in vezina odds.

one thing i think that should be looked at a bit more is the fact their back up playing behind the same team is still playing well. meanwhile rittich has an 881... small samples of course though, w/ other factors to consider. and could be b/c varly is clearly>>>>>rittich, but at the same time, there hasnt been as big of a drop-off in sv% with either goaltender compared to the Jets tandem

The thing that gets me currently is Sorokin is considered to be on par or better right now. While having worse stats in every single measurable category.

 

[DRW204]

wow that's actually nuts. Out of the top 10 paid goalies Hellebuyck is the only one whose worth the money (i'm ignoring Murray because his sample size is so small).

id say Vas is usually worth the money. but this year obviously been a down year.

but that's the inherent risk of long ufa contracts. all the big goalie contracts (vas, price, bob) also have big signing-bonuses too.

 

[Daximus]

they're back-to-back in sv%, and in GA vs xGA. it's not like they're far off, & 1 game can have them flip-flop. Helle has been better but slightly. ive seen them usually on-par with each other, or helle 1 and sorokin 2 in vezina odds.

one thing i think that should be looked at a bit more is the fact their back up playing behind the same team is still playing well. meanwhile rittich has an 881... small samples of course though, w/ other factors to consider. and could be b/c varly is clearly>>>>>rittich, but at the same time, there hasnt been as big of a drop-off in sv% with either goaltender compared to the Jets tandem

Helle has played 1 more game than Sorokin. He has more wins, a higher SV%, hgher GAA, higher GSAA, has more goalie point shares, has a better adjusted goals allowed, has more shutouts and faces more shots on average,

There isn't a single category that Sorokin leads Helle in.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I remember how we used to have a Helly hater white cloud 31 or something? Helly is probably the best player that we have drafted as Jets 2.0 other honorable mentions Morrissey, Schief, kfc, Ehlers.

 

[enuffidiotsalready]

Good post, and I was thinking the same thing myself about these players. With Bowness as Coach, I think there's a very good chance PLD will resign here, irregardless of what's happened. Everybody wants to be on a winning team, and Bowness will guide this team to the "top."

please define 'irregardless'
LoL

 

[DRW204]

Helle has played 1 more game than Sorokin. He has more wins, a higher SV%, hgher GAA, higher GSAA, has more goalie point shares, has a better adjusted goals allowed, has more shutouts and faces more shots on average,

There isn't a single category that Sorokin leads Helle in.

Ok I'm not disputing that. I said I've seen it usually Helle ahead or on par, not Sorokin ahead. So, I'm asking who's saying he's distinctively better? They're close in the popular stats like sv% and GA vs xga.
I think Helle is better but if someone it's close. it's a difference of 0.005 in sv%.

Also in goals save above expectation it looks like Sorokin is ahead entering last night so it's real nip and Tuck it seems.

 

[Daximus]

Ok I'm not disputing that. I said I've seen it usually Helle ahead or on par, not Sorokin ahead. So, I'm asking who's saying he's distinctively better? They're close in the popular stats like sv% and GA vs xga.
I think Helle is better but if someone it's close. it's a difference of 0.005 in sv%.

Also in goals save above expectation it looks like Sorokin is ahead entering last night so it's real nip and Tuck it seems.

Goals saved above expectation is a pretty weird stat to pull out as any reason for Sorokin to be ranked ahead and is a very obvious cherry pick.

Vezina Trophy Rankings: Sorokin starting to run away with it

Welcome to the second in-season edition of theScore's 2022 Vezina Trophy Rankings. Now past the quarter-mark of the campaign, the field of hardware-caliber netminders has thinned out as some candidates in our November rankings have fallen back to earth.There's lots of hockey left to be played...

www.thescore.com

TheScore had a similar narrative. It's such an obvious cherry pick to not give Helle his due.


And even then as of last night. Helle beats him there as well.

 

[DRW204]

Goals saved above expectation is a pretty weird stat to pull out as any reason for Sorokin to be ranked ahead and is a very obvious cherry pick.

Vezina Trophy Rankings: Sorokin starting to run away with it

Welcome to the second in-season edition of theScore's 2022 Vezina Trophy Rankings. Now past the quarter-mark of the campaign, the field of hardware-caliber netminders has thinned out as some candidates in our November rankings have fallen back to earth.There's lots of hockey left to be played...

www.thescore.com

TheScore had a similar narrative. It's such an obvious cherry pick to not give Helle his due.


And even then as of last night. Helle beats him there as well.

Sorokin was ahead prior to last night according to that article in Goals saved above expectation. But ya thats one stat.

I'm not trying to dispute that Sorokin is better bc I don't think so. But majority of stats folks from what I've seen (hadn't seen this score article, so thank you) has it either Helle ahead or it a toss up.

in that article they outline NYI being V poor defensively yet Sorokin still thriving. That's similar to the reality which Helle had faced several years here (nyi 31st in xga and 26th in shots attempts) so perhaps being on one of the worst defensive teams, compared to the jets being closer to average now, is giving Sorokin a slight edge in their eyes.

 

[Daximus]

Sorokin was ahead prior to last night according to that article in Goals saved above expectation. But ya thats one stat.

I'm not trying to dispute that Sorokin is better bc I don't think so. But majority of stats folks from what I've seen (hadn't seen this score article, so thank you) has it either Helle ahead or it a toss up.

in that article they outline NYI being V poor defensively yet Sorokin still thriving. That's similar to the reality which Helle had faced several years here (nyi 31st in xga and 26th in shots attempts) so perhaps being on one of the worst defensive teams, compared to the jets being closer to average now, is giving Sorokin a slight edge in their eyes.

Helle faces more shots on average but NYI gives up more high danger shots. That's about the one area that Sorokin faces a tougher workload. NYI gives up the slot a lot more than we do. Though neither team is exactly among the best there.

 

[jokesondee]

Goals saved above expectation is a pretty weird stat to pull out as any reason for Sorokin to be ranked ahead and is a very obvious cherry pick.

Vezina Trophy Rankings: Sorokin starting to run away with it

Welcome to the second in-season edition of theScore's 2022 Vezina Trophy Rankings. Now past the quarter-mark of the campaign, the field of hardware-caliber netminders has thinned out as some candidates in our November rankings have fallen back to earth.There's lots of hockey left to be played...

www.thescore.com

TheScore had a similar narrative. It's such an obvious cherry pick to not give Helle his due.


And even then as of last night. Helle beats him there as well.

Helle has better stats across the board and the Jets are playing .700 hockey compared to the Islanders .593, yet Sorokin is running away with the Vezina?!?1 LMFAO, what the F is that guy smoking?? If the season ended today Helle would take home the Vezina. Period.

 

[Daximus]

Helle has better stats across the board and the Jets are playing .700 hockey compared to the Islanders .593, yet Sorokin is running away with the Vezina?!?1 LMFAO, what the F is that guy smoking?? If the season ended today Helle would take home the Vezina. Period.

Only player who might be able to challenge is Ullmark. Who has Helle beat in most categories but plays on a much tighter defensive team.

 

[DRW204]

Helle faces more shots on average but NYI gives up more high danger shots. That's about the one area that Sorokin faces a tougher workload. NYI gives up the slot a lot more than we do. Though neither team is exactly among the best there.

was actually surprised how poor NYI is defensively.

"allowed" rates at all-strengths:
24th worst in shot-attempts
19th in SOG
29th in xGA
28th in quality of shot-attempt

all stats considerably worse than the Jets except SOGs allowed. id rate NYIs fwds weaker than the Jets although they really aren't far off in GF. seems like the reasons I, and id guess most of WPG market had helle as a vezina front-runner during the maurice years are basically the basis of why Sorokin should be in the mix this season.

these 2 likely will flip-flop between 1 and 2 for the Vezina through the year, and i don't think either is ahead by a huge amount. I really disagree with any article that has Sorokin far ahead. going into last week for instance sorokin was ahead by a similar amount in SV% as Helle is now (which is barely, like 0.005 of %), and was ahead by xGA vs GA by 7 goals. At the beginning of this week he was barely ahead in SV% and still ahead in xGA vs GA. Helle overtook him when Sorokin had a poor showing vs STL. as of today id go with Helle then Sorokin but just last week case could be made for Sorokin ahead/ lots of season left so we'll see if one distinctly pulls away.

 

[Gm0ney]

was actually surprised how poor NYI is defensively.

"allowed" rates at all-strengths:
24th worst in shot-attempts
19th in SOG
29th in xGA
28th in quality of shot-attempt

all stats considerably worse than the Jets except SOGs allowed. id rate NYIs fwds weaker than the Jets although they really aren't far off in GF. seems like the reasons I, and id guess most of WPG market had helle as a vezina front-runner during the maurice years are basically the basis of why Sorokin should be in the mix this season.

these 2 likely will flip-flop between 1 and 2 for the Vezina through the year, and i don't think either is ahead by a huge amount. I really disagree with any article that has Sorokin far ahead. going into last week for instance sorokin was ahead by a similar amount in SV% as Helle is now (which is barely, like 0.005 of %), and was ahead by xGA vs GA by 7 goals. At the beginning of this week he was barely ahead in SV% and still ahead in xGA vs GA. Helle overtook him when Sorokin had a poor showing vs STL. as of today id go with Helle then Sorokin but just last week case could be made for Sorokin ahead/ lots of season left so we'll see if one distinctly pulls away.

The more xGA your team gives up, the more chances your goalie has to save more than average!

 

[DRW204]

The more xGA your team gives up, the more chances your goalie has to save more than average!

is this a maurice idiom?

 

[DRW204]

~midway point it's between him, sorokin and ullmark. don't think that's really anything ground-breaking.

as far as who has the most support. BOS is by-far the best defensive team, WPG middle of the pack, and NYI near bottom of the league

Ullmark has been incredible. he does have the best team in front of him, will say behind the same team the back-up has been severely worse 0.897 in 14gp (ofc other context factors considered, b2bs, smaller sample etc.).

this is a GM vote, could there be a bit of voter fatigue with helle , Ullmark is 21-1-1 with a 0.940 and top-3 in the common goalie advanced stats (GA vs xGA, GSAA for instance) but all 3 of them are usually tops in most stats (traditional, and advanced)