Player Discussion: 2024 Vezina Winner Connor Hellebuyck

[tbcwpg]

ultimately it doesn’t matter because he hasn’t been good enough for the jets to win. He has carried the team previous years and hasn’t this year. He has still been our best player over the period of time of jets 2.0 and not Wheeler like @Imcanadianeh has previously argued but no one on this team has been good enough.

No he hasn't but if the team only wins when he's putting up Vezina numbers then I don't feel he's an issue. We wondered for a long time what this team would be like with even average goaltending while Pavelec was here, turns out it was more of the same. Maybe Pavelec wasn't as bad as his reputation

 

[MardyBum]

Hellebuyck is having a better season now than in 17-18. You don't need Vezina goaltending if your defense is amazing. He's solidly in the 10-15 range. Not near his arguably best in the league from 19-20/20-21 but not bad. Lowry really overplayed him for a bit there too, Comrie needed a few more games earlier in the calendar year.

 

[tbcwpg]

Hellebuyck is having a better season now than in 17-18. You don't need Vezina goaltending if your defense is amazing. He's solidly in the 10-15 range. Not near his arguably best in the league from 19-20/20-21 but not bad. Lowry really overplayed him for a bit there too, Comrie needed a few more games earlier in the calendar year.

I feel more and more like the 2017-18 team was more of an anomaly than the team wasting a window or anything. Though any team would struggle with their whole right side of the blue line being decimated.

 

[WPGChief]

 

[10Ducky10]

Trade him straight up for Gibson.

 

[Ducky10]

Well that’s great and all but apparently Moneypuck modelling is dodgy…….

 

[None]

I think it's mildly deceptive to display GSAx as cumulative like that but it does show Hellebuyck is crazy consistent.

 

[WPGChief]

Well that’s great and all but apparently Moneypuck modelling is dodgy…….

MoneyPuck's log-loss was one of the better models for the 2020-21 season and has been doing fine for the 2021-22 season. If I used Evolving-Hockey or NaturalStatTrick's cumulative GSAx, while they may be slightly different, they would probably tell the same story.

I think it's mildly deceptive to display GSAx as cumulative like that but it does show Hellebuyck is crazy consistent.

What's deceptive about it? I think it accurately showcases a retort to some that while yes, Hellebuyck hasn't had a great season like he did in the previous two, he's still having actually a pretty good season (other than a meh stretch in late February / early March).

Hellebuyck and Saros have had the same GP, yet Hellebuyck has seen nearly 20 more xGA than Saros. I wince a little when people say he "hasn't been good enough this year". There's about 5 other players I would name first before I get to Hellebuyck, in which the only thing I could hold against him is not literally stealing as many wins as he traditionally has.

 

[Ducky10]

MoneyPuck's log-loss was one of the better models for the 2020-21 season and has been doing fine for the 2021-22 season. If I used Evolving-Hockey or NaturalStatTrick's cumulative GSAx, while they may be slightly different, they would probably tell the same story.


What's deceptive about it? I think it accurately showcases a retort to some that while yes, Hellebuyck hasn't had a great season like he did in the previous two, he's still having actually a pretty good season (other than a meh stretch in late February / early March).

Hellebuyck and Saros have had the same GP, yet Hellebuyck has seen nearly 20 more xGA than Saros. I wince a little when people say he "hasn't been good enough this year". There's about 5 other players I would name first before I get to Hellebuyck, in which the only thing I could hold against him is not literally stealing as many wins as he traditionally has.

Just to clarify, I was being facetious.

 

[None]

What's deceptive about it?

I think that at a glance it can look like consistent improvement over a baseline whereas the continual climb is more about consistency.
Edit: To be clear I mean cumulative over multiple seasons.

Hellebuyck and Saros have had the same GP, yet Hellebuyck has seen nearly 20 more xGA than Saros. I wince a little when people say he "hasn't been good enough this year". There's about 5 other players I would name first before I get to Hellebuyck, in which the only thing I could hold against him is not literally stealing as many wins as he traditionally has.

If you qualify "he hasn't been good enough" with "to carry 3 grown men worth of dead weight for 30 minutes a night" it would make a lot more sense

 

[FonRiesen]

Well I’d say I have my doubts with the moneypuck model then.

Here is where Hellebuyck ranks in certain stats (stats from naturalstattrick, all strengths, min 1500 TOI)

SV%-18th
GAA-24th
GSAA-19th
HDSV%-25th
HDGAA-32nd
HDGSAA-27th

FWIW, GAA and HDGAA are team stats, not goalie stats, since they're a direct function of how many shots are allowed in a game. All it shows is that, relative to his peers, his team allows more shots against per game.

But it's true his sv% is down this year - it's the closest we have to a decent goalie stat. I think it makes sense to sa he's having a rough year, and is slightly below average this year (but he's still better than many starters).

But I don't hold much value for single-season hdsv% - it reduces sample sizes in a stat where sample size is incredibly important. I'm also not convinced that the hd portion is as useful a filter as it seems on the surface... Subjective criteria is tough to turn into a consistently objective metric.

 

[cbcwpg]

Ask how many games the Jets would have won this season without him?

I agree he hasn't "stolen" a lot of games and his numbers might be lower than other seasons, but we would be in serious trouble without him.

 

[DRW204]

this was brought up in the scheifele thread, RE: trading Helle

trading helle is an interesting topic. he's a huge piece that'd probably garner a lot in a trade.

similarly to scheifele, 2 years left on his deal, will be a 31 year old UFA with some of the highest mins/shots-faced/quality shots faced in the league. he's led the league in shots-faced the past 4 seasons, and led in minutes played in 3 of the past 5.

is this team good enough in front of him to win a cup with him over the next 2 years? how does his game project over the next 2 seasons?

do we re-sign a 31 year old with such a high career work-load to a UFA deal? he's going to get 9M imo, is that a good deal for a goalie in their early 30s for another 5-6 years? .

if you think this team needs to rebuild, and that this year might be a bit of a sign of things to come for his individual play..... perhaps you entertain moving him. like i said, he'd still garner a lot i think, and the assets acquired would be a higher benefit in the long-run given the premise you do not think this team will win a cup w/ him over the next couple years (we lose with or without him).

If you think this is a cup-winning roster/system or whatever, then evidently keep him and win a cup. and risk having him walk in 2024.

 

[Ducky10]

this was brought up in the scheifele thread, RE: trading Helle

trading helle is an interesting topic. he's a huge piece that'd probably garner a lot in a trade.

similarly to scheifele, 2 years left on his deal, will be a 31 year old UFA with some of the highest mins/shots-faced/quality shots faced in the league. he's led the league in shots-faced the past 4 seasons, and led in minutes played in 3 of the past 5.

is this team good enough in front of him to win a cup with him over the next 2 years? how does his game project over the next 2 seasons?

do we re-sign a 31 year old with such a high career work-load to a UFA deal? he's going to get 9M imo, is that a good deal for a goalie in their early 30s for another 5-6 years? .

if you think this team needs to rebuild, and that this year might be a bit of a sign of things to come for his individual play..... perhaps you entertain moving him. like i said, he'd still garner a lot i think, and the assets acquired would be a higher benefit in the long-run given the premise you do not think this team will win a cup w/ him over the next couple years (we lose with or without him).

If you think this is a cup-winning roster/system or whatever, then evidently keep him and win a cup. and risk having him walk in 2024.

I think the team is more than a couple of tweaks and more than a year or two of development away for certain players, from really being a contender. I get exactly what you’re saying and I honestly believe you have to entertain offers for Helle. As you say, he’s be worth a lot and the potential return could help strengthen and further the next contention window.

A fair bit of this opinion is based on my belief Helle won’t be resigning here anyway. I think moving guys like Scheifele and Helle sooner than later makes the team stronger when it’s going to matter next. Having them is unlikely to matter one way or the other in the next two years regardless. It would be bold and the return has to be there, but it’s probably the right thing to do.

 

[DRW204]

I think the team is more than a couple of tweaks and more than a year or two of development away for certain players, from really being a contender. I get exactly what you’re saying and I honestly believe you have to entertain offers for Helle. As you say, he’s be worth a lot and the potential return could help strengthen and further the next contention window.

A fair bit of this opinion is based on my belief Helle won’t be resigning here anyway. I think moving guys like Scheifele and Helle sooner than later makes the team stronger when it’s going to matter next. Having them is unlikely to matter one way or the other in the next two years regardless. It would be bold and the return has to be there, but it’s probably the right thing to do.

i do think helle's game is more "sustainable" in the long-run. his style-of-play is not heavily reliable on athleticism, & he has not had any major injuries either.

the cumulative work-load is a concern for me. i brought this up in previous threads prior to start of the year when we first signed comrie. i think given the amount of shots/mins i think there's a point where he could start to regress from his lofty standard. i didn't expect it this year, and perhaps this is a blip rather than a trend, but when signing him through his 30s it's definitely something to consider when handing him a UFA contract. He might not re-sign here anyway like you mentioned too.

if you trade helle, you might as well trade scheifele too and officially start a rebuild.

idk how folks would rate this team's goalie acquisitions and signings, so that is an area we need to address if he is moved. internally: i don't think comrie or berdin are long-term starters.

 

[MardyBum]

I think the team is more than a couple of tweaks and more than a year or two of development away for certain players, from really being a contender. I get exactly what you’re saying and I honestly believe you have to entertain offers for Helle. As you say, he’s be worth a lot and the potential return could help strengthen and further the next contention window.

A fair bit of this opinion is based on my belief Helle won’t be resigning here anyway. I think moving guys like Scheifele and Helle sooner than later makes the team stronger when it’s going to matter next. Having them is unlikely to matter one way or the other in the next two years regardless. It would be bold and the return has to be there, but it’s probably the right thing to do.

I mean, if we trade Helle, we're toast for a few years. Finding a goalie who is mediocre enough to get a great team(which we are not and we have no evidence we will be in a scenario where we trade Helle to retool in a few years) into the playoffs is one thing, but then we're back to "just getting in".

Ehlers is up 1 year after Helle, so trade him too, not enough time to compete for a cup and he'll want a raise or something. Connor 1 year after Ehlers. Do you trade him too? Can you rebuild a contender in 2-3 years and find a great goalie in this market?

Schmidt, Pionk UFA same year as Ehlers, Demelo and Dillon the year before with Helle so trade them too.

This current life cycle of the Jets lives and dies on Hellebuyck, and there is no answer in sight. Not like we have a Shesterkin in the wings behind Hank.

Personally I think finding a much better coach who can instill a system this team can play around to improve defensively + some retool moves to improve the roster(which could include big moves) is easier than trying to find a top 10 goalie .

And then if you fail, you lose Helle for nothing, but you tried, and then you blow it up anyways because that's how all the contracts fit on this roster anyways.

 

[rubikscube]

Trading Vezina level goaltenders and #2 centers on good contracts is the solution to becoming a better team?. Scheif, sure at least entertain it because there's a contingency with Dubois.

Helle, who's the replacement? He will never be traded from the Jets and that is a guarantee

 

[Teemusalami204]

Trading Vezina level goaltenders and #2 centers on good contracts is not the magical path to success. Scheif, sure at least entertain it because there's PLD in the wings.

Helle, who's the replacement? Trade him? No way.. 0% chance. He will never be traded from the Jets and that is a guarantee.

Unless he wants out and needs to be traded the deadline before his contract expires.

I wouldn’t blame him for wanting out if things stay the same

 

[rubikscube]

Unless he wants out and needs to be traded the deadline before his contract expires.

I wouldn’t blame him for wanting out if things stay the same

Sure, if he requests a trade. But assuming he doesn't

 

[Ducky10]

I mean, if we trade Helle, we're toast for a few years. Finding a goalie who is mediocre enough to get a great team(which we are not and we have no evidence we will be in a scenario where we trade Helle to retool in a few years) into the playoffs is one thing, but then we're back to "just getting in".

Ehlers is up 1 year after Helle, so trade him too, not enough time to compete for a cup and he'll want a raise or something. Connor 1 year after Ehlers. Do you trade him too? Can you rebuild a contender in 2-3 years and find a great goalie in this market?

Schmidt, Pionk UFA same year as Ehlers, Demelo and Dillon the year before with Helle so trade them too.

This current life cycle of the Jets lives and dies on Hellebuyck, and there is no answer in sight. Not like we have a Shesterkin in the wings behind Hank.

Personally I think finding a much better coach who can instill a system this team can play around to improve defensively + some retool moves to improve the roster(which could include big moves) is easier than trying to find a top 10 goalie .

And then if you fail, you lose Helle for nothing, but you tried, and then you blow it up anyways because that's how all the contracts fit on this roster anyways.

We can give Ehlers a raise when he’s due. Just because I’m advocating trading Helle for what I think would be a very high return, doesn’t mean I’m advocating to give up on every UFA in the future. Maybe there is answer enough in trading Scheifele but imo it’s going to have to return some decent scoring to replace some of Scheifele’s and a top pairing D man, which I agree is easier than finding a top 10 goalie but still not easy. The D as currently constructed, as well as a lack of depth scoring won’t see the Jets competing in the next two years, without a pretty big upgrade. That’s not likely to be Heinola and Samberg in that period so Chevy needs to figure it out.
Keep in mind, one the key factors for me in thinking about moving Helle, is I don’t believe he’ll resign here.

I’m not of the belief the Jets will be a deep threat in the playoffs over the next two years, Helle or not. Hoping to be wrong though.

 

[Ducky10]

Trading Vezina level goaltenders and #2 centers on good contracts is the solution to becoming a better team?. Scheif, sure at least entertain it because there's a contingency with Dubois.

Helle, who's the replacement? He will never be traded from the Jets and that is a guarantee

Not a solution to becoming a better team in he short term, no. In the long term? Maybe, depends on returns and yes, finding another competent goaltender.
You can guarantee Helle won’t be traded, you’re probably right. I’ll guarantee he won’t resign here and in the meantime we’ll be a bubble team the rest of his time here and possible beyond.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ask how many games the Jets would have won this season without him?

I agree he hasn't "stolen" a lot of games and his numbers might be lower than other seasons, but we would be in serious trouble without him.

And what would this "serious trouble" look like compared to what we have? A higher draft pick?

 

[MardyBum]

We can give Ehlers a raise when he’s due. Just because I’m advocating trading Helle for what I think would be a very high return, doesn’t mean I’m advocating to give up on every UFA in the future. Maybe there is answer enough in trading Scheifele but imo it’s going to have to return some decent scoring to replace some of Scheifele’s and a top pairing D man, which I agree is easier than finding a top 10 goalie but still not easy. The D as currently constructed, as well as a lack of depth scoring won’t see the Jets competing in the next two years, without a pretty big upgrade. That’s not likely to be Heinola and Samberg in that period so Chevy needs to figure it out.
Keep in mind, one the key factors for me in thinking about moving Helle, is I don’t believe he’ll resign here.

I’m not of the belief the Jets will be a deep threat in the playoffs over the next two years, Helle or not. Hoping to be wrong though.

Yeah, I think a lot of the issues(and we may see them resolved or worsened depending on Chevy actually making substantial changes) are due to roster decisions, mentality, and systems, but we won't know until there is substantial change.

Scheifele and Wheeler are bad together defensively - keep playing them together because we need offense.

Morrissey is an elite #1D, he can handle Beaulieu as a partner on the top pairing.

Stanley was sheltered with Demelo, he can handle top 4 minutes.

Ehlers can't play a lot of minutes, he's better with less.

We can't have "too much" skill, we need Sbisas and Beaulieus to toughen up the team.

"We have our own internal analytics". Etc etc

If they can take the egg on their face and make the changes needed, which includes a good, experienced, no bullshit coach who can work within a roster, I think they can compete. They have the hardest part. Offensive talent. Shit teams can buy in defensively but they get killed by goaltending, talent, and goal scoring.

But I can absolutely see why no one would have faith in this group, they don't exactly deserve much

 

[ps241]

Not a solution to becoming a better team in he short term, no. In the long term? Maybe, depends on returns and yes, finding another competent goaltender.
You can guarantee Helle won’t be traded, you’re probably right. I’ll guarantee he won’t resign here and in the meantime we’ll be a bubble team the rest of his time here and possible beyond.

With the qualifier that IMO Helle is our best and most valuable player....but.... assuming he is not planning on sticking around.

What do you think Helle would return? I am trying to think of a goalie who got value back in a trade?

 

[bustamente]

If and that's a big if Helle was available I would think the Bruins would be the most interested, Dallas, San Jose, Washington, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia might also be interested. What I'm saying is there would no lack of teams calling.