GDT: 2024 Summer Free Agency (July 1st)

[Tyson]

Sporadic at best.
Looking to improve is not tanking there aren't very many posts I've read that want an outright tank.
It's time to start winning games but realistically as it stands today we are still in the bubble at best.
I'll agree a large number of people looked at this year's UFA crop beforehand and passed but that isn't Pro Tank it's just smart.
HuGo made their pitch and it was always going to come down to term for the players that garnered some attention...

We are definitely going to be making a trade before puck drop 2024/2025.

I want to see a huge improvement...I hope we don't get a bunch of people clamoring for losses this season. Time to take a major step as a team back to respectability.

 

[ReHabs]

Imo Hughes at a certain point in the season gets that itch to be better next season, and speaks publicly based on that.

But when the offseason comes and it's time to make decisions that affect both next season and the future, he has so far done what is best for the future, even if it means we won't be that much better next year.

After this upcoming season, Dvo, Armia, and Savard will be off the books, plus the retention from Petry and Allen. Next offseason should interesting to see what ufa or trade Hughes is involved in.

And I wouldn't be against adding another Reinbacher or Demidov level prospect with a good draft pick - and giving Armia, Dvo, and Anderson good ice time to get their production up and get a good return by trade deadline. Would be nice to get 2nds for Armia and Dvo and ship Anderson out without retaining much. Hopefully Savard brings another 2nd, or even a 1st. We could use the 2nds to move up with the Florida pick.

I've been very agreeable with Hughes this off-season -- getting Demidov really helps but also avoiding the awful FA market reinforced my confidence actually -- but by not reinforcing the roster it is hard to say he has not thrown the upcoming season into the trash. We don't stand a chance of making the playoffs.

Now before you bite back and tell me I'm wrong to expect the playoffs keep in mind Molson and Hughes both said this off-season that they expect to see an improvement and to challenge for the playoffs. I'm just going by what they said. The coming season is 'the future' just as much as the season after and the ones after that.

I think a proper campaign in 24-25 to scratch and claw into a playoff spot is worth it even if we do end up losing in four games in a one-and-done. I think playing meaningful games, winning those one-goal games, to start strong and close out games, and expecting wins from this young roster are all important. It's all upside.

I want to see a huge improvement...I hope we don't get a bunch of people clamoring for losses this season. Time to take a major step as a team back to respectability.

It’ll extinguish the benefit of the doubt if the Habs don’t show much progress going through year3 of the rebuild.

The good news is the Habs made a pt% improvement every season and I hope this trend continues.

 

[26Mats]

I've been very agreeable with Hughes this off-season -- getting Demidov really helps but also avoiding the awful FA market reinforced my confidence actually -- but by not reinforcing the roster it is hard to say he has not thrown the upcoming season into the trash. We don't stand a chance of making the playoffs.

Now before you bite back and tell me I'm wrong to expect the playoffs keep in mind Molson and Hughes both said this off-season that they expect to see an improvement and to challenge for the playoffs. I'm just going by what they said. The coming season is 'the future' just as much as the season after and the ones after that.

I think a proper campaign in 24-25 to scratch and claw into a playoff spot is worth it even if we do end up losing in four games in a one-and-done. I think playing meaningful games, winning those one-goal games, to start strong and close out games, and expecting wins from this young roster are all important. It's all upside.

I agree with you that Hughes didn't do what he said he wanted to do in the dimension of getri g ready for this season- yet at least. But he did prioritize the lo g term as he said he always was. He just hasn't been able to improve for next season as much as he said he wanted to. Nothing wrong with that imo.

I'm sure he's trying now to move a surplus young dman for help in the top 6 at forward. The deals just might not be there.

 

[Team_Spirit]

Laine was suppose to be out of assistance program back around draft time. Delay tells me things hit a snag

Seems OK

https://x.com/i/web/status/1814374094881640458

 

[Deus ex machina]

4.45+3.4+3.5+2.343+1.925= 15.618

Slaf extension dif (6.65) + Guhle extension dif (5 or so) = 11.65

So that's still 4 millions freed not counting the cap increase.

The 3 roster spot of Armia, Dvorak and Savard get taken by ELC guys (Beck/Kapanen, Demidov, Mailloux/Reinbacher), leaving the money for upgrades.

Shipping/buying out Gallagher and Anderson becomes more manageable as well.

Yeah, i figured around 12M more for Slaf and Guhle.
If all 4 UFAs don't come back and are replaced by ELC players, that's about 4M more in cap space compared to now.
They already have potentially 16M in unused cap space at the moment. 4M is pretty negligible compared to 16M.

My point is, it's not like they have to wait to clear that 4M to do something.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think next summer is when they will try to turn a corner in this development path. Suzuki would be entering his 26 year old season.

That doesn't mean that they will be cup contenders in 25/26, but I think the mindset will shift more to the present.

25/26 is when we'll make a real effort to make the playoffs.

This year I think we'll miss. Too young a team. But... we might surprise people. There's a lot of talent on the roster and we should have two solid lines for the first time in forever. Hutson juices the PP. If the goalies can have another solid year we might just sneak in.

I'm not predicting or expecting it. But it wouldn't shock me if we snuck into 8th. There's a lot of upside in our lineup.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I want to see a huge improvement...I hope we don't get a bunch of people clamoring for losses this season. Time to take a major step as a team back to respectability.

The core of a championship team has now been drafted and it is all about development and progress now and part of the development now is learning how to win and developing the small details in each players game that will turn a significant number of last season's league leading one goal losses in to wins.

It is time for these kids to start seeing some actual results in the standings to reinforce the the validity of the messaging/coaching that they have been receiving. I can't help but shake my head at the dumb narratives that the talking heads online and on tv that keep reiterating that this team needs to add a significant piece if they expect to score more goals. Caufield and Slafkovsky combined for 48 goals last season and that should drastically improve if the both stay relatively healthy. I would expect 60 goals to be extremely attainable for this young duo and 70 to be within reach. Suzuki might score even more but if not he should remain close to what he produced last season. The addition of Kirby Dach could in itself result in an additional 30 goals and maybe even more as he not only will easily out score Jake Evans but he will make his wingers much more productive. Then you can look at Newhook and Roy who should also take significant steps as well as a healthy Dvorak and Armia 2.0 who both looked great to finish out the season as well as Gallagher whohad finally figured out how to play in MSL's system. Perhaps Hutson provides a huge boost to the PP when he eventually takes over and Guhle becomes a big part of transitional offence......

There is a world where this team organically improves by 50 or more goals and is near the top of the offensive leaders in the East and this is before having Demidov, Hage, Beck, Kapanen, Xhekaj, Reinbacher and Mailloux as potentially significant contributors and upgrades that are moving along the conveyor belt. The defensive mistakes that are universally common with young players will continue to improve as the team gains experience which will further contribute to the potentially huge turn around in goal differential.

This team needs to start showing results in the win column and I believe that they will barring another year of devastating injuries. Last season was marred by some significant injuries and growing pains in the first half as Dach missed the entire season and Slafkovsky's season was a tale of two very opposite players. While there were no improvements in the standings they did finish with eight more points and lopped 22 goals of of their negative goal differential. They also lost a lot more close games and were far more consistently competitive. This team should absolutely compete for a playoff spot and if enough variables turn the right way they could really surprise a lot of people.

People cheering for the tank next season simply don't understand what a successful "tank" looks like and need to understand that finding success as soon as the main components are added is integral to this exercise being fruitful at the end of it. This team is now moving from a predominantly developmental culture to a winning culture and floundering in between like the Sabres have been doing for a decade is exactly what you want to avoid.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The core of a championship team has now been drafted and it is all about development and progress now and part of the development now is learning how to win and developing the small details in each players game that will turn a significant number of last season's league leading one goal losses in to wins.

It is time for these kids to start seeing some actual results in the standings to reinforce the the validity of the messaging/coaching that they have been receiving. I can't help but shake my head at the dumb narratives that the talking heads online and on tv that keep reiterating that this team needs to add a significant piece if they expect to score more goals. Caufield and Slafkovsky combined for 48 goals last season and that should drastically improve if the both stay relatively healthy. I would expect 60 goals to be extremely attainable for this young duo and 70 to be within reach. Suzuki might score even more but if not he should remain close to what he produced last season. The addition of Kirby Dach could in itself result in an additional 30 goals and maybe even more as he not only will easily out score Jake Evans but he will make his wingers much more productive. Then you can look at Newhook and Roy who should also take significant steps as well as a healthy Dvorak and Armia 2.0 who both looked great to finish out the season as well as Gallagher whohad finally figured out how to play in MSL's system. Perhaps Hutson provides a huge boost to the PP when he eventually takes over and Guhle becomes a big part of transitional offence......

There is a world where this team organically improves by 50 or more goals and is near the top of the offensive leaders in the East and this is before having Demidov, Hage, Beck, Kapanen, Xhekaj, Reinbacher and Mailloux as potentially significant contributors and upgrades that are moving along the conveyor belt. The defensive mistakes that are universally common with young players will continue to improve as the team gains experience which will further contribute to the potentially huge turn around in goal differential.

This team needs to start showing results in the win column and I believe that they will barring another year of devastating injuries. Last season was marred by some significant injuries and growing pains in the first half as Dach missed the entire season and Slafkovsky's season was a tale of two very opposite players. While there were no improvements in the standings they did finish with eight more points and lopped 22 goals of of their negative goal differential. They also lost a lot more close games and were far more consistently competitive. This team should absolutely compete for a playoff spot and if enough variables turn the right way they could really surprise a lot of people.

People cheering for the tank next season simply don't understand what a successful "tank" looks like and need to understand that finding success as soon as the main components are added is integral to this exercise being fruitful at the end of it. This team is now moving from a predominantly developmental culture to a winning culture and floundering in between like the Sabres have been doing for a decade is exactly what you want to avoid.

I haven't seen anyone cheering for a tank next year. It could happen anyway but I think we're going to improve enough to be a bubble team. Not ready to say we're a playoff club but it could absolutely happen. As I said in another thread, there's a lot of upside to this team.

 

[overlords]

As I said in another thread, there's a lot of upside to this team.

It's getting pretty exciting to imagine what can be, unburdened by what has been.

 

[Treb]

Yeah, i figured around 12M more for Slaf and Guhle.
If all 4 UFAs don't come back and are replaced by ELC players, that's about 4M more in cap space compared to now.
They already have potentially 16M in unused cap space at the moment. 4M is pretty negligible compared to 16M.

My point is, it's not like they have to wait to clear that 4M to do something.

The roster space is also a factor. Hughes doesn't want to pay to make it. Waiting next year solves a big part of that for free.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It's getting pretty exciting to imagine what can be, unburdened by what has been.

When was the last time we were excited about the team's scoring?

I know we had that one year in 07 or 08 where we had a great scoring year but it was a bit of a fluke. I can't remember us having the kind of young scoring talent we have now. I think this could be the best scoring team we've had since the 70s. It's going to take a few years before they (hopefully) realize that potential but the potential is definitely there.

 

[ReHabs]

When was the last time we were excited about the team's scoring?

I know we had that one year in 07 or 08 where we had a great scoring year but it was a bit of a fluke. I can't remember us having the kind of young scoring talent we have now. I think this could be the best scoring team we've had since the 70s. It's going to take a few years before they (hopefully) realize that potential but the potential is definitely there.

Those two or so years where Souray was firing rockets, it looked like we could score at will even without particularly good forwards.

 

[The Real Timo]

I want to see a huge improvement...I hope we don't get a bunch of people clamoring for losses this season. Time to take a major step as a team back to respectability.

If no da playoffs this coming season - it’s a bust!

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

If no da playoffs this coming season - it’s a bust!

Nah.

As long as we see progression from key prospects it's all good. Nobody should go in expecting the playoffs this year.

 

[Miller Time]

If no da playoffs this coming season - it’s a bust!

That kind of thinking brought us Hoffman's UFA deal and the Dvorak trade...

Luckily, we've got management in place that sees the bigger picture.

& Just think of how happy you'll be if we finally get some injury luck and this young roster is the surprise playoff team this year (there's always 1-2 teams that play way above general expectations).

Win-Win
(Add another W if that Flames pick is the 11OA, and 3 more Ws if that pick wins the lottery )

 

[Deus ex machina]

The roster space is also a factor. Hughes doesn't want to pay to make it. Waiting next year solves a big part of that for free.

I don't know how you figure there's no roster space but i easily see 1 or 2 open spots on the second line, depending if you already give Roy a spot or not.

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Newhook/Roy - Dach - New top 6 player
Roy/Newhook - Dvorak - Armia
Gallagher/RHP - Evans - Anderson
Pezzetta

 

[Treb]

I don't know how you figure there's no roster space but i easily see 1 or 2 open spots on the second line, depending if you already give Roy a spot or not.

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Newhook/Roy - Dach - New top 6 player
Roy/Newhook - Dvorak - Armia
Gallagher/RHP - Evans - Anderson
Pezzetta

If you count, you have 13 forwards there without the top 6 player.

We are more likely to carry 8 D than 14 F, therefore we need one guy out to bring someone in.

If Roy starts in the AHL, you have 1 spot.

 

[Deus ex machina]

If you count, you have 13 forwards there without the top 6 player.

We are more likely to carry 8 D than 14 F, therefore we need one guy out to bring someone in.

If Roy starts in the AHL, you have 1 spot.

Sure, they could choose to go with 8 D instead of 14 F.
I've put RHP and Pezzetta there but they aren't essential to the team.
If you avoid adding a top 6 F just because you absolutely want to have those 2 players on the roster, you have a big problem.
Pezzetta is barely NHL caliber.

And Roy could indeed start the year in the AHL.
If you give him a spot before the season starts and it turns out he's not ready, that's another problem.
And if there are injuries, like it happens every year, then who do you call back to replace a top 6 player besides Roy.

Better to have too many good players than not enough.

In reality, they'd need to add 2 top 6 Fs, but with Demidov likely coming over in a year and at this stage of the summer, one will have to do for now.
But they have to get that player if they're really serious about making the playoffs.
So, if they have an opportunity to get that player now, they've got to take it. They have plenty of cap space to make it happen.

 

[The Real Timo]

I don't know how you figure there's no roster space but i easily see 1 or 2 open spots on the second line, depending if you already give Roy a spot or not.

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Newhook/Roy - Dach - New top 6 player
Roy/Newhook - Dvorak - Armia
Gallagher/RHP - Evans - Anderson
Pezzetta

This doesn't look like a roster that makes da playoffs. Sigh.

Pezzetta is barely NHL caliber.

He sure is, but when X is not in the lineup he is the only player that throws an occasional hit and can do some middle weight fights. You gotta have heavier bottom 6 than what Habs have. it's embarrassing.

 

[Treb]

Sure, they could choose to go with 8 D instead of 14 F.
I've put RHP and Pezzetta there but they aren't essential to the team.
If you avoid adding a top 6 F just because you absolutely want to have those 2 players on the roster, you have a big problem.
Pezzetta is barely NHL caliber.

And Roy could indeed start the year in the AHL.
If you give him a spot before the season starts and it turns out he's not ready, that's another problem.
And if there are injuries, like it happens every year, then who do you call back to replace a top 6 player besides Roy.

Better to have too many good players than not enough.

In reality, they'd need to add 2 top 6 Fs, but with Demidov likely coming over in a year and at this stage of the summer, one will have to do for now.
But they have to get that player if they're really serious about making the playoffs.
So, if they have an opportunity to get that player now, they've got to take it. They have plenty of cap space to make it happen.

Hughes did not want to give long contracts, which limited his options.

We know he talked to Marchessault for example.

We don’t need to get a top6 forward just to get one his year.

I think he sees Newhook as a top6 options, which would only leave the Demidov spot to temporarily fill.

 

[Sorinth]

It’ll extinguish the benefit of the doubt if the Habs don’t show much progress going through year3 of the rebuild.

The good news is the Habs made a pt% improvement every season and I hope this trend continues.

I wouldn't go that far, we've already shown progress throughout the first few years and at the end of the day progress isn't linear, taking a step back is fairly common (See NJ this year). So if we struggle this year it's not unexpected, that said it does put some real pressure on Hughes to do something in the offseason, so if we struggle next year and do nothing in the offseason then I could see the case for Hughes losing the benefit of the doubt. But if we stumble next year and he does add a relatively big name player then he'd still have the benefit of the doubt for me.

 

[LaP]

We imo need to be prudent with log jamming the team with vets who doesn't help us win and letting the kids rot in the AHL. Yes eventually we'll need to log jam the team and the remaining kids will need to take their time in the AHL but for now for the next season we should keep some doors open since we are not there yet. We can always go grab some vet presence during the season if needed.

If we log jam the forwards group with vets we will have in the AHL next season :

Roy, Mesar, Beck, Xhekaj, Farrell, Heineman, Luke Tuch.

That's a lot. Too much imo. We should definitely have one of them in the NHL. We also want to avoid keeping all those guys in the AHL for 2-3 years and then have 2 of them graduating all at once at the same time as Demidov. We want to test them a bit just to be sure we are not missing something. Ideally we want to bring those who are good enough progressively. Not having at least one forward graduating next season just for the sake of having MOAR vets would be dumb imo.

Slaf-Suzuki-Caufield
Newhook-Dach-Armia
Roy-Dvorak- Gallagher
RHP-Evans-Anderson
Pazetta (can rotate RHP and Pazetta)

Is it a bad lineup? Yes for sure. Would replacing Armia by Patch, JVR or Sprong makes it much better? No and anyone who think this would make this team better is living in la la land imo. If Dach is injured you move Newhook to center and give some games to a kid. The only move i would entertain is replacing Dvorak by a guy not always injured so we are not stuck with both Dach and Dvorak injured for the whole year like last season. But don't think Dvorak is moveable until the TDL.

If we log jam the defense with vets we will have in the AHL

Barron, Mailloux, Reinbacher, Struble, Hutson.

I'm not sure about Engstrom status if he doesn't make the NHL does he go to AHL or Europe. If Engstrom goers to AHL it's even worse. That means no vet in the AHL top 6. We should try to have two of them in the NHL.

Guhle-Savard
Matheson-Mailloux/Reinbacher
Xhekaj-Barron
Struble (can rotate Xhekaj and Struble)

I really don't see the need for useless vets. MOAR vets. MOAR kiriktr. MOAR lidrship. Unless we can add a 40 goals scorers or 80 points guys this team will be bad. Armia is fine. He sucks but he's a vet. Let's up his value before the TDL. Same for Dvorak. If they injure themselves we can always grab a cap dump during the season.

 

[Deus ex machina]

Hughes did not want to give long contracts, which limited his options.

We know he talked to Marchessault for example.

We don’t need to get a top6 forward just to get one his year.

I'm not sure why you mention Marchessault. I've never talked about signing a UFA to a long term contract. Didn't make sense and it's too late for that anyway.
There's no problem giving a long term contract to a young F they get by trade though.

The narrative that they need to wait a year because they're gonna clear a ton of cap space next summer is just not accurate. That was my main point.

There's really no reason to wait if they can get that top 6 F by trade this summer.
Everybody (or almost) is tired of losing. There's no sense in not giving the players the best chance possible to get out of the basement asap.

 

[Treb]

I'm not sure why you mention Marchessault. I've never talked about signing a UFA to a long term contract. Didn't make sense and it's too late for that anyway.
There's no problem giving a long term contract to a young F they get by trade though.

The narrative that they need to wait a year because they're gonna clear a ton of cap space next summer is just not accurate. That was my main point.

There's really no reason to wait if they can get that top 6 F by trade this summer.
Everybody (or almost) is tired of losing. There's no sense in not giving the players the best chance possible to get out of the basement asap.

Waiting a year let's you know if:
- Dach can stay healthy and secure the 2C position.
- Newhook is a top6 forward.
- Roy can solidify himself as middle 6.
- Mesar/Farrell/Heineman could be middle 6 options in the short/mid term.

All of these questions influences the guy you would want to target in a trade. We should also have a clearer idea of who is a keeper on D and who to add to the trade assets.

I expected (and still kind of expect) a move for a top6 guy, but it either needs to be a cheap (asset wise) short term fix or a long term solution (think 22-26 years old established player).

With that said, I'm still on the Laine train if he comes relatively cheap. He fits both the short term and potentially the long term too. We even have the luxury of not asking for retention, unlike many other suitors and minimal salary going back.

 

[Tyson]

Waiting a year let's you know if:
- Dach can stay healthy and secure the 2C position.
- Newhook is a top6 forward.
- Roy can solidify himself as middle 6.
- Mesar/Farrell/Heineman could be middle 6 options in the short/mid term.

All of these questions influences the guy you would want to target in a trade. We should also have a clearer idea of who is a keeper on D and who to add to the trade assets.

I expected (and still kind of expect) a move for a top6 guy, but it either needs to be a cheap (asset wise) short term fix or a long term solution (think 22-26 years old established player).

With that said, I'm still on the Laine train if he comes relatively cheap. He fits both the short term and potentially the long term too. We even have the luxury of not asking for retention, unlike many other suitors and minimal salary going back.

Do you know how long he has been in the NHL Assistance Program...seems like about 6 months.