Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending)

[Deebo]

When’s the last time this FO were really deadline sellers?
2018, with JA Happ?
Hoping history doesn’t repeat itself.

Stroman in 2019?

 

[phillipmike]

Well the next few weeks should be exciting.

Draft on Sunday and the Jays expected to be sellers at the deadline. I dont expect a rebuild but a retool. So many teams in the WC race, Jays should get good offers.

Could get some good pieces for expirings such as;
-Kikuchi (might be the best starting rental on the market) 26th in starting fWAR
-Jansen (best rental catcher on the market; maybe best hitter outside of Rooker)
-Garcia (best rental arm)
-Richards (decent pen arm)

Guys with one more year;
-IKF (highest fWAR player available unless Rooker is)
-Bassitt (27th among all starters available; Olney reporting the Dodgers are hot after him)
-Green is one of the best relievers in the league

-Kiermaier and Turner could get something back

Got to get at least 1 top 150 prospects for Kikuchi, Jansen and Garcia. Bassitt needs to land a top 100. Hoping IKF could do the same or at least a top 125 guy. Same goes for Green. That would boost the system up dramatically. Braves have interest in Gausman too.

If you move all those guys, that is $87M off the 2024 books. Would go into the off-season with $146M committed and you would need 2 starters, a 3B, and to revamp the pen;

C: Kirk
1B: Guerrero
2B: Clement
SS: Bichette
3B: ????
LF: Schneider
CF: Varsho
RF: Springer
DH: Horwitz

Gausman
Berrios
Rodriguez
????
????

Romano
Swanson
Pearson
Pop
Cabrera
????
????
????

I really like the switch hitting Moncada on a short term prove deal for 3B. Soto would be nice and bring a big boost to the OF but that isnt happening. Bring Teo back? O"Neill? Contracts might be too big.

Need to round out the starting rotation. Throw money at Burnes or Fried? Reclamation projects: Buehler, Bieber, Snell, Montas etc.

Prefer a rebuild but i cant see that happening. Dont want to sell low on Gausman, Romano and Bichette, so best to do what the Mets did last year.

Also since the A's and White Sox aren't eligible for the draft, Jays currently have the 5th best odd for the 2025 draft. 0.5 back of the Nats who have the 4th best but because they are in a weak NL, they are only 5.5 GBs of a WC.

Tankathon | 2025 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

2025 MLB Draft order tracker updated after every game. Lottery simulator, pick odds, and remaining schedule strength.

www.tankathon.com

 

[Discoverer]

C: Kirk
1B: Guerrero
2B: Clement
SS: Bichette
3B: ????
LF: Schneider
CF: Varsho
RF: Springer
DH: Horwitz

Gausman
Berrios
Rodriguez
????
????

Romano
Swanson
Pearson
Pop
Cabrera
????
????
????

Make Horwitz and Clement a 2B platoon (with Clement as more of a utility guy who's in and out of the lineup at various positions against righties) and find a big bat to plug in at DH.

I guess there's a chance they're offered a piece that makes it worth their while, but if they're going to re-tool, I think their best bet is to keep Bassitt since they're unlikely to find a better way to spend that $22 million and would have a huge hole in the rotation.

 

[phillipmike]

Make Horwitz and Clement a 2B platoon (with Clement as more of a utility guy who's in and out of the lineup at various positions against righties) and find a big bat to plug in at DH.

I guess there's a chance they're offered a piece that makes it worth their while, but if they're going to re-tool, I think their best bet is to keep Bassitt since they're unlikely to find a better way to spend that $22 million and would have a huge hole in the rotation.

I agree but if someone is offering me a top 100 prospect for Bassitt, im taking it. especially one closer to the majors. Im a big Bassitt fan and would prefer to keep him but got to get assets when you can get them and use that $22M and your pro scouting to find a 2-3 WAR replacement. Same goes for Gausman and Berrios if i get great offers. Sucks to lose them but getting that money to spend in the off-season along with potential impact prospects is too big of an opportunity cost to give up.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Make Horwitz and Clement a 2B platoon (with Clement as more of a utility guy who's in and out of the lineup at various positions against righties) and find a big bat to plug in at DH.

I guess there's a chance they're offered a piece that makes it worth their while, but if they're going to re-tool, I think their best bet is to keep Bassitt since they're unlikely to find a better way to spend that $22 million and would have a huge hole in the rotation.

I disagree with making Horwitz a platoon player. He is a good hitter. Period. He should be playing everyday. Righty, lefty, doesn’t matter.

 

[LaP]

Make Horwitz and Clement a 2B platoon (with Clement as more of a utility guy who's in and out of the lineup at various positions against righties) and find a big bat to plug in at DH.

I guess there's a chance they're offered a piece that makes it worth their while, but if they're going to re-tool, I think their best bet is to keep Bassitt since they're unlikely to find a better way to spend that $22 million and would have a huge hole in the rotation.

They really have to find a much better DH for next season if they want to keep trying with the same core i 100% agree with that. Ideally i think you would probably want to try to move either Vlad or Horwitz to 3rd base and use the other one at 1st base? Then if it's a success you can sign or trade for a DH next summer (using deadline assets acquired a bit like Jays did in the Berrios trade) and rotate IKF, Schneider and Clement at 2B and OF and move Varsho to CF. Varsho should have been moved to CF ages ago.

 

[Scintillating10]

I agree but if someone is offering me a top 100 prospect for Bassitt, im taking it. especially one closer to the majors. Im a big Bassitt fan and would prefer to keep him but got to get assets when you can get them and use that $22M and your pro scouting to find a 2-3 WAR replacement. Same goes for Gausman and Berrios if i get great offers. Sucks to lose them but getting that money to spend in the off-season along with potential impact prospects is too big of an opportunity cost to give up.

I'd trade one of those 3 starters. But no more.

 

[phillipmike]

I'd trade one of those 3 starters. But no more.

If you get good offers, id trade them all. Berrios is my preferred pitcher to keep because he is the youngest. But with their age, a fall off could happen at any point so best to get what you can if the offers are good. Not the same age, but as you get into the mid 30s, a fall off could happen. The Mets dont do a lot right but they did last season trading expensive aging pieces for prospects and then using the money to fill out their roster and now they are 0.5 GBs of a WC.

 

[Scintillating10]

If you get good offers, id trade them all. Berrios is my preferred pitcher to keep because he is the youngest. But with their age, a fall off could happen at any point so best to get what you can if the offers are good. Not the same age, but as you get into the mid 30s, a fall off could happen. The Mets dont do a lot right but they did last season trading expensive aging pieces for prospects and then using the money to fill out their roster and now they are 0.5 GBs of a WC.

Too many good starters to have to replace

 

[Discoverer]

I disagree with making Horwitz a platoon player. He is a good hitter. Period. He should be playing everyday. Righty, lefty, doesn’t matter.

Over the last three years, between AA, AAA, and the majors, Horwitz has a .967 OPS against RHP. Against lefties, it's .705. And keep in mind the vast majority of that has come against minor league pitching.

Horwitz is a very good hitter. But he also has one area where he's struggled for years now, and that's against LHP. Thinking he should get more chances to see if he can improve is one thing, but saying "Righty, lefty, doesn't matter" is ignoring all the evidence we have.

It just really reminds me of the way Buck Martinez always talked about Adam Lind. Every time Lind would get a hit against a lefty, Buck would say "See, he's just a pure hitter. He needs to be in the lineup every day no matter which way the pitcher throws". Then at the end of the year Lind would have a .550 OPS against lefties, and Buck would keep saying it the next year anyway.

 

[Scintillating10]

Over the last three years, between AA, AAA, and the majors, Horwitz has a .967 OPS against RHP. Against lefties, it's .705. And keep in mind the vast majority of that has come against minor league pitching.

Horwitz is a very good hitter. But he also has one area where he's struggled for years now, and that's against LHP. Thinking he should get more chances to see if he can improve is one thing, but saying "Righty, lefty, doesn't matter" is ignoring all the evidence we have.

It just really reminds me of the way Buck Martinez always talked about Adam Lind. Every time Lind would get a hit against a lefty, Buck would say "See, he's just a pure hitter. He needs to be in the lineup every day no matter which way the pitcher throws". Then at the end of the year Lind would have a .550 OPS against lefties, and Buck would keep saying it the next year anyway.

Buck Martinez is one guy I could never listen to

 

[Discoverer]

Buck Martinez is one guy I could never listen to

I like him a lot as a colour commentator as long as he's not just complaining about how much baseball sucks these days. Unfortunately, that's most of what he talks about the last few years.

 

[MS]

Over the last three years, between AA, AAA, and the majors, Horwitz has a .967 OPS against RHP. Against lefties, it's .705. And keep in mind the vast majority of that has come against minor league pitching.

Horwitz is a very good hitter. But he also has one area where he's struggled for years now, and that's against LHP. Thinking he should get more chances to see if he can improve is one thing, but saying "Righty, lefty, doesn't matter" is ignoring all the evidence we have.

It just really reminds me of the way Buck Martinez always talked about Adam Lind. Every time Lind would get a hit against a lefty, Buck would say "See, he's just a pure hitter. He needs to be in the lineup every day no matter which way the pitcher throws". Then at the end of the year Lind would have a .550 OPS against lefties, and Buck would keep saying it the next year anyway.

Again, if we were in the middle of a playoff push all of this makes sense.

But we're not. The season is over. You have a rookie who is absolutely raking and right now we should be seeing if he actually *can* hit LH pitching with the strides he's made over the past two years and investing ABs in helping him continue to get better at it if he can't.

We need to be establishing whether this is an Adam Lind who could never hit lefties or a Carlos Delgado who couldn't hit lefties to save his life when he broke into MLB but because he kept getting thrown out there was actually putting up better numbers against LH pitching by his 3rd or 4th season than RH pitching.

 

[trellaine201]

Ex-MLBer Burroughs died of fentanyl intoxication

The Los Angeles County medical examiner released its findings into Sean Burroughs' death this week, saying the former major leaguer died of fentanyl intoxication and ruling it as an accident.

www.espn.com

Sad but reading the story he was doing fentanyl at his son’s game? :/

 

[tmlfan98]

 

[phillipmike]

Too many good starters to have to replace

We found all 3 in free agency in back to back offseasons and we have a good pitching coach. Its possible because they did it before.

These guys wont live forever, eventually they will need to be replaced whether this season or next. Gausman and Kikuchi are turning 34 and Bassitt 36, its likely these guys dont all pitch well into their mid to late 30s. And im not saying give them away for nothing, im talking trading them for top 100 prospects while getting close to $60M to spend, that is great asset management, something this team needs more of.

 

[Scintillating10]

Many Jays be lucky to dump their contract

 

[Discoverer]

Again, if we were in the middle of a playoff push all of this makes sense.

But we're not. The season is over. You have a rookie who is absolutely raking and right now we should be seeing if he actually *can* hit LH pitching with the strides he's made over the past two years and investing ABs in helping him continue to get better at it if he can't.

We need to be establishing whether this is an Adam Lind who could never hit lefties or a Carlos Delgado who couldn't hit lefties to save his life when he broke into MLB but because he kept getting thrown out there was actually putting up better numbers against LH pitching by his 3rd or 4th season than RH pitching.

That's why I included the part clarifying that I get it if you want him to play to see if he can figure it out. I just really don't get assertions like "He's a good hitter so he can hit lefties." Some very good hitters are only good from one side of the plate, and that's been the case for Horwitz so far.

 

[jetsforever]

Is Kiermaier's value really zero? (If so I'd keep him for now personally)

 

[Leafblooded]

No chatter here about the Bo idolizing moving to San Fran? Says he would love to play for a contender

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Draft coming up on Sunday. MLB.com has us taking a college hitter. I won't waste my time going over who I want as they'll probably pick someone that annoys me like one of the college catchers.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2024-mock-draft-july-11?t=mlb-draft-coverage

20. Blue Jays: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (No. 17)

Yet more college bats: the four guys projected to go 16-19, plus King, Sam Houston catcher Walker Janek, Louisiana State third baseman Tommy White and California catcher Caleb Lomavita.

 

[Scintillating10]

Well the next few weeks should be exciting.

Draft on Sunday and the Jays expected to be sellers at the deadline. I dont expect a rebuild but a retool. So many teams in the WC race, Jays should get good offers.

Could get some good pieces for expirings such as;
-Kikuchi (might be the best starting rental on the market) 26th in starting fWAR
-Jansen (best rental catcher on the market; maybe best hitter outside of Rooker)
-Garcia (best rental arm)
-Richards (decent pen arm)

Guys with one more year;
-IKF (highest fWAR player available unless Rooker is)
-Bassitt (27th among all starters available; Olney reporting the Dodgers are hot after him)
-Green is one of the best relievers in the league

-Kiermaier and Turner could get something back

Got to get at least 1 top 150 prospects for Kikuchi, Jansen and Garcia. Bassitt needs to land a top 100. Hoping IKF could do the same or at least a top 125 guy. Same goes for Green. That would boost the system up dramatically. Braves have interest in Gausman too.

If you move all those guys, that is $87M off the 2024 books. Would go into the off-season with $146M committed and you would need 2 starters, a 3B, and to revamp the pen;

C: Kirk
1B: Guerrero
2B: Clement
SS: Bichette
3B: ????
LF: Schneider
CF: Varsho
RF: Springer
DH: Horwitz

Gausman
Berrios
Rodriguez
????
????

Romano
Swanson
Pearson
Pop
Cabrera
????
????
????

I really like the switch hitting Moncada on a short term prove deal for 3B. Soto would be nice and bring a big boost to the OF but that isnt happening. Bring Teo back? O"Neill? Contracts might be too big.

Need to round out the starting rotation. Throw money at Burnes or Fried? Reclamation projects: Buehler, Bieber, Snell, Montas etc.

Prefer a rebuild but i cant see that happening. Dont want to sell low on Gausman, Romano and Bichette, so best to do what the Mets did last year.

Also since the A's and White Sox aren't eligible for the draft, Jays currently have the 5th best odd for the 2025 draft. 0.5 back of the Nats who have the 4th best but because they are in a weak NL, they are only 5.5 GBs of a WC.

Tankathon | 2025 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

2025 MLB Draft order tracker updated after every game. Lottery simulator, pick odds, and remaining schedule strength.

www.tankathon.com

View attachment 894101

Keiermayer is on waivers. How is he going to get something back?

 

[Discoverer]

Keiermayer is on waivers. How is he going to get something back?

If no one claims him, the Jays can trade him while retaining some of his salary or taking another negative-value player back.

 

[shaner8989]

Another amazing move by management. Let’s resign KK at $10 mill. f*** this organization is a sack of shit

 

[tmlfan98]

I don't even think the Jays will be prioritizing "something" in return for Turner and KK. I think they would rather the acquiring team take on all their remaining money so they can duck the tax this season and reset their penalties heading into 2025.