Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending or maybe not ... )

[MS]

It was like a month or so ago that we could have cut Vogelbach before his salary became guaranteed and they let a very small hot streak cloud their judgment. Waste of money. Held onto Biggio for extra years and let his value plummet.. management is not good at making decisions in a timely manner and it continues to cost them. The major changes that still need to be made or addressed are likely still a year or 2 away if Atkins and Shapiro are safe in their jobs.

Yup.

Biggest problem with this management group is that they have been absurdly over-conservative, for the past couple years especially.

When the team wasn't expected to compete they were bringing up Kirk at age 20 from A-ball but as soon as the team had expectations ... a veteran with an OPS+ of 70 somehow can't lose his job to a guy hitting .340 in AAA.

Same goes for the hitting coaches.

If a decision can be made a) aggressively and proactively, b) when it becomes obvious it needs to be made, or c) an hour after the bus has left the station ... we consistently default to (c).

 

[Suntouchable13]

I don’t know if a sell off is needed like SOME people think. They should find a couple of quality bats and this team can still be really good. I get it, it’s hard to just “find a couple of quality bats", but it can be done. I am 100% against a full sell off and wallowing at the bottom of the league with 90 to 100 losses. I am not about that.

 

[Eyedea]

35 games
-1.5 fWAR
3 wRC+

https://x.com/i/web/status/1801677586403123673

As bad as Springer has been, Abreu really fell off the face of the earth.

 

[MS]

As bad as Springer has been, Abreu really fell off the face of the earth.

There are basically no quality age 35+ hitters in MLB. Paul Goldschmidt hit 36 and he's fallen off the face of the earth this year, too. JD Martinez is still hanging in there but that's about it.

The increase in pitching velocity has shortened hitters' careers in a huge way. When they get into their mid-30s and lose the tiniest bit of fast-twitch response needed to get around on a high-90s fastball, it's over.

 

[TGB]

Surprised they didn't DFA Vogel sooner, I think there was something about 45 days, and I already said Barger replaces Biggo in terms of utility which is why I figured he'd be gone sooner rather than later. That and he cost $4 mil.

It looks they're trying to free up more playing time for Horwitz which is what I think they should have done in the first place. Hopefully he'll hit for more power in which case the Jays should be much less willing to trade him. They still need insurance in case Vladdy decides to walk. I know people talk Palmegiani, but with Martinez looking pretty blah on defense, that's three 1B/DHs clogging up the works and Martinez is far more promising given he has so far been good for 30 HRs/80 RBIs no matter how low his AVG is.
I guess that would make Palmegiani the odd man out.

 

[saska sault]

Yup.

Biggest problem with this management group is that they have been absurdly over-conservative, for the past couple years especially.

When the team wasn't expected to compete they were bringing up Kirk at age 20 from A-ball but as soon as the team had expectations ... a veteran with an OPS+ of 70 somehow can't lose his job to a guy hitting .340 in AAA.

Same goes for the hitting coaches.

If a decision can be made a) aggressively and proactively, b) when it becomes obvious it needs to be made, or c) an hour after the bus has left the station ... we consistently default to (c).

It's almost as if they continue to try to bargain bin shop with this roster but they end up spending large amounts of money on guys they can replace for much cheaper.. Belt was a whatever signing last year to me, he was decent but he was another guy who didn't make sense to me just like Vogelbach to me this year. Justin Turner was a signing that only happened on name recognition. KK was another one where you could have argued having him if they didn't spend a good chunk of resources aqcurining Varsho... the art of complimenting a roster is not something that has been anywhere close to a strong point with Atkins. For a team in a "contention window" to let Lourdes and Teo leave and never get a bat on the same level was another red flag. Teo is making 23ish? And we ran him out of town because he was flaws in the field and the dressing room was too chummy.

 

[Dr.Funk]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1801752172570529979

 

[Anthrax442]

Omg, finally Yokelback is gone. Now do the same for Turner

 

[TheTotalPackage]

I don’t know if a sell off is needed like SOME people think. They should find a couple of quality bats and this team can still be really good. I get it, it’s hard to just “find a couple of quality bats", but it can be done. I am 100% against a full sell off and wallowing at the bottom of the league with 90 to 100 losses. I am not about that.

I agree with this, but I think the direction hinges on what happens long-term with Vladdy and Bichette. If one or both sign big deals, there is no need to hit the reset button and they can try to refine the roster. If it looks like they plan on trading both or believe neither will re-sign, then we're in for some painful seasons ahead. Which none of us want at this time considering the hype and expectations this core has had bestowed on them for many years now. The Jays aren't anywhere near the "must rebuild" stage yet.

 

[Dr.Funk]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1801800642152853621

 

[Bjindaho]

On the there's more important things in life side, I hope the Jays go out of their way to do a John McDonald tribute tomorrow given that he is in town.

Former Blue Jay John McDonald back at Rogers Centre for poetic Father’s Day visit

Former Blue Jays infielder John McDonald and his son will be taking in all three games of the Guardians-Blue Jays series, and the fact that they'll be spending Father's Day at Rogers Centre on Sunday is simply poetic because of the magic McDonald produced in the building on June 20, 2010.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[trellaine201]

Loved him. He played so hard and had so much heart!

 

[Puckstuff]

Looking at this roster, if the Jays have Teo and Semien instead of Kiermaier, Turner, IKF, and Rodriguez, they are probably a top 5 team in baseball. Given they are near .500 with negative production from Turner, and Kiermaier, having the yearly 8 WAR in Teo and Semien would bring this team from an 80 win pace to 90+ wins.

1. DH - Horwitz
2. 2B - Semien
3. 1B - Guerrero Jr.
4. RF - Hernandez
5. C - Jansen
6. SS - Bichette
7. LF - Schneider
8. CF - Varsho
8. 3B - Clement/Barger

Springer, Kirk, filler, filler


The Jays should try and trade for Luis Robert Jr. (the Hernandez replacement we never got) and then look for another bat. f*** rebuilding. The starting pitching is just ridiculous and we have some great pieces. Trade for Robert Jr, put Schneider at 2B (his more natural position), and then eventually trade for a RF. Barger/Springer is an ok platoon in RF for now.

1. DH - Horwitz
2. 2B - Schneider
3. 1B - Guerrero Jr.
4. LF - Robert Jr.
5. C - Jansen
6. SS - Bichette
7. CF - Varsho
8. RF - Barger/Springer
8. 3B - IKF/Clement/Barger

 

[Discoverer]

Looking at this roster, if the Jays have Teo and Semien instead of Kiermaier, Turner, IKF, and Rodriguez, they are probably a top 5 team in baseball. Given they are near .500 with negative production from Turner, and Kiermaier, having the yearly 8 WAR in Teo and Semien would bring this team from an 80 win pace to 90+ wins.

1. DH - Horwitz
2. 2B - Semien
3. 1B - Guerrero Jr.
4. RF - Hernandez
5. C - Jansen
6. SS - Bichette
7. LF - Schneider
8. CF - Varsho
8. 3B - Clement/Barger

Springer, Kirk, filler, filler


The Jays should try and trade for Luis Robert Jr. (the Hernandez replacement we never got) and then look for another bat. f*** rebuilding. The starting pitching is just ridiculous and we have some great pieces. Trade for Robert Jr, put Schneider at 2B (his more natural position), and then eventually trade for a RF. Barger/Springer is an ok platoon in RF for now.

1. DH - Horwitz
2. 2B - Schneider
3. 1B - Guerrero Jr.
4. LF - Robert Jr.
5. C - Jansen
6. SS - Bichette
7. CF - Varsho
8. RF - Barger/Springer
8. 3B - IKF/Clement/Barger

I don't know exactly how Rogers determines payroll from year to year, but if you replace those 4 players with Teo and Semien, you're adding about $20 million in payroll in 2024. I don't see how it's remotely possible unless Rogers suddenly decides to spend that much extra.

 

[ER89]

Stellar is not the word to describe this line up.

That's the point....

 

[Puckstuff]

I don't know exactly how Rogers determines payroll from year to year, but if you replace those 4 players with Teo and Semien, you're adding about $20 million in payroll in 2024. I don't see how it's remotely possible unless Rogers suddenly decides to spend that much extra.

It's not quite 20 m but I get your point. Maybe they sign a lesser pitcher to Bassit to split the difference. Anyways, I just hope they find a mashing corner outfield to finally replace Teo for the outfield. Luis Robert Jr. would be ideal imo.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

having the yearly 8 WAR in Teo and Semien would bring this team from an 80 win pace to 90+ wins.

Semien wasn't interested.

 

[Habs10Habs]

Omg, finally Yokelback is gone. Now do the same for Turner

It was time. But I'm going to miss Chris Farley.

 

[MS]

Semien wasn't interested.

Yeah, his entire family stayed in California all season. He pretty clearly just viewed Toronto as a stepping stone to increase his value for a year and then move on. His comments at the end of the year didn't indicate much interest in staying, either.

I will say I'm surprised at his continued excellent performance - I figured we'd see a hard drop-off as he moved into his mid-30s but he's some sort of crazy unicorn who has seen his K rates drop every year as he gets deeper into his 30s.

 

[Dr.Funk]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802757117629321245

 

[Discoverer]

It's not quite 20 m but I get your point. Maybe they sign a lesser pitcher to Bassit to split the difference. Anyways, I just hope they find a mashing corner outfield to finally replace Teo for the outfield. Luis Robert Jr. would be ideal imo.

Yeah, they really needed another bat this year, and that was super obvious all along. It was really frustrating. I made a long post about this before the season started, but all of the signings they made this offseason (IKF, Kiermaier, Turner) were fine moves if they added a superior bat to the middle of the lineup. They didn't, and that made all of those moves a little odd and not good enough.

To top it off, they were clearly banking on internal improvements from the stars and young guys, which I don't think was a terrible strategy... but then they kept a couple of those young guys in the minors to dominate for two months while they desperately needed offensive help in the majors.

 

[MS]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802757117629321245

Man, you can literally see the declining fan interest in those numbers compared to 2022 when Jays fans had the team in the top 1 or 2 voting spots at every position.

 

[Discoverer]

Man, you can literally see the declining fan interest in those numbers compared to 2022 when Jays fans had the team in the top 1 or 2 voting spots at every position.

To be fair, that team had guys having huge seasons at most positions, too. I don't know how much fan interest has declined, but I know for sure player performances have.

 

[MS]

To be fair, that team had guys having huge seasons at most positions, too. I don't know how much fan interest has declined, but I know for sure player performances have.

True, but the results were crazy - Kirk had *triple* the votes of the 2nd place catcher and Santiago Espinal was nearly voted in as the starting 2B.

This year Daulton Varsho is sitting 12th in OF voting when he's on pace for a 7 WAR season. Compare that with Gurriel 6th in voting in 2022.

I'd love to see the TV ratings year over year. I'm a die-hard who is still watching most of the games but friends who checked in when Guerrero broke out in 2021 have totally checked back out this year.

 

[Dr.Funk]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802824186265800920