Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Entry Draft (Ducks pick #3, They didn’t drop! OMG It’s a Miracle!)

[Kalv]

Still really keen on this player, even if his offensive ceiling doesn't look to be through the roof. We may just be picking a tad too high, but then again maybe not. Iginla's name has floated into our conversation and I'm not so sure he's the better prospect.

Oh shoot I had the chance to go to the game I had no idea he was playing. Damn

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Statistically speaking the worst team in the league is 3 times more likely NOT to win the lottery than to win it and it gets worse as you go down the rankings.

When you put it that way of #1 winning 1st overall (25.5% chance of winning) versus not #1 winning 1st overall (74.5% chance of winning) it does seem daunting. If we reframe it like this and not winning #1 overall is probably the most likely outcome, then we won't be up in arms.

Though, it does seem weird the previous two lotteries (in the two draw era) retained the 1st overall, making it 2/3rds chance of retaining the first. (Source) In the multi-draw era, four teams retained 1st overall out of eight years; making it 50% of the time retaining 1st overall. Both situations are higher than the 1-in-4 chances of winning the 1st overall pick. Teams that retained the #1 overall pick are Toronto (2016), Buffalo (2018), Buffalo (2021), and Montreal (2022).

Anaheim has moved down one in four out of the past five drafts.

2019: Finished 8th worst. Picked 9th.
2020: Finished 5th worst. Picked 6th.
2021: Finished 2nd worst. Picked 3rd.
2023: Finished 1st worst. Picked 2nd.

In that same five year span, three teams have moved up twice: New Jersey, Chicago, and NYR. Expand it from 2023-2016, NJ has moved up three times and won 1st overall twice. That 2019 draft lotto results was sus.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

This might be the late riser who goes a lot earlier than people expect, well within the top 10. A lot of positive traits, a little less quick than Helenius but stronger. Looks like a player that can do a bit of everything, including playing in traffic.

 

[forever1922]

This might be the late riser who goes a lot earlier than people expect, well within the top 10. A lot of positive traits, a little less quick than Helenius but stronger. Looks like a player that can do a bit of everything, including playing in traffic.

Feels like a lot of forwards wil be rising and perhaps after a very hyped start the defensemen lost some steam. Dickinson, Levshunov, Silayev all lost some momentum.

B-N and Helenius both exceeded expectations in the playoffs. We still have the WC and U18s to see some of these guys when they're out of their comfort zone. It's a bit of a hit or miss viewing, but last year Leo and Fanta showed what they could become.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

This might be the late riser who goes a lot earlier than people expect, well within the top 10. A lot of positive traits, a little less quick than Helenius but stronger. Looks like a player that can do a bit of everything, including playing in traffic.

I dunno about late riser, but MBN has hovered in the early teens for quite some time now. Since the start of the season, I've been looking for late 1st, early 2nd round scoring forwards and Hemming was one I identified as a potential late 1st/early 2nd rd possibility (before we even acquired a last 1st rd pick). I like a lot MBN, but he was never gonna drop out of the mid-to-early teens range; which is why I rarely talk about him b/c he's not a top-5 pick and not a late 1st/early 2nd. He would be a great get for someone in the 10-15 range.

 

[Anarchynate]

Buium Needs to be on our radar. Is my #1 d and it really isn’t close.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I dunno about late riser, but MBN has hovered in the early teens for quite some time now. Since the start of the season, I've been looking for late 1st, early 2nd round scoring forwards and Hemming was one I identified as a potential late 1st/early 2nd rd possibility (before we even acquired a last 1st rd pick). I like a lot MBN, but he was never gonna drop out of the mid-to-early teens range; which is why I rarely talk about him b/c he's not a top-5 pick and not a late 1st/early 2nd. He would be a great get for someone in the 10-15 range.

That really strong playoff run might be enough to give him a late push from the teens into the top 10. I think there will be some really interesting debates among scouts as they try to rank the F's after Celebrini

 

[Rasp]

This might be the late riser who goes a lot earlier than people expect, well within the top 10. A lot of positive traits, a little less quick than Helenius but stronger. Looks like a player that can do a bit of everything, including playing in traffic.

I believe Dallas was scouting him earlier in the year before he was out of their range.

 

[ScarTroy]

I believe Dallas was scouting him earlier in the year before he was out of their range.

That’s all I needed to hear

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I believe Dallas was scouting him earlier in the year before he was out of their range.

Confirmed stud then

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Get him... U18, u20, national champion

 

[ScarTroy]

Get him... U18, u20, national champion

Think he plays at Worlds?

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Think he plays at Worlds?

Hmm didn’t really think about it… guess it depends who is available

 

[Terry Yake]

if they're going with a d-man, it'd be a toss up for me between dickinson and buium. really not impressed at all with levshunov. silayev would be my first choice if he wasn't under contract in russia for another year

 

[tomd]

if they're going with a d-man, it'd be a toss up for me between dickinson and buium. really not impressed at all with levshunov. silayev would be my first choice if he wasn't under contract in russia for another year

I'm less and less enamored with the D in this draft but if Silayev is the best of them then I would be willing to wait a year for him.

 

[Terry Yake]

I'm less and less enamored with the D in this draft but if Silayev is the best of them then I would be willing to wait a year for him.

i just can't see them going F unless celebrini is available, although i wouldn't mind lindstrom at all. he's got everything this team needs in regards to size and toughness

and really don't want any part of demidov

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

if they're going with a d-man, it'd be a toss up for me between dickinson and buium. really not impressed at all with levshunov. silayev would be my first choice if he wasn't under contract in russia for another year

If we get buium, levshunov, Dickinson or yakemchuk

I’m a happy camper

 

[All Mighty]

Vancouver beat Edmonton last night, which is good for our pick. The odds of Edmonton winning the division are very small now as the only possibility of it happening is Edmonton going 3-0 the rest of the way AND Vancouver losing both of their final games in regulation. Edmonton's pick is currently at #24, and it can't get higher than #23 (excluding playoff results).

 

[GunnarStahl]

Chicago shouldn't have won the 1st pick not because of the lotto but because they shouldn't have even had a first rounder as punishment for the Beach scandel. The fact that all the got was a fine for covering up a crime is the bigger issue.

And then endorsed the predator to work at a high school where he would go on to assault multiple minors.

 

[tomd]

i just can't see them going F unless celebrini is available, although i wouldn't mind lindstrom at all. he's got everything this team needs in regards to size and toughness

and really don't want any part of demidov

It's going to be interesting for sure. I see all of the D having long development paths except for Buium who doesn't have the size of the others. IMO, Demidov is exactly what the team needs...a dynamic game breaking forward. It's a shame Lindstrom has been battling injuries and that will likely push him down a bit.

 

[cheesymc]

Get him... U18, u20, national champion

If we draft him, does he come with his brother? Would be a nice bonus if Shai didn’t sign next year and elects to sign with Zeev’s team.

 

[Terry Yake]

It's going to be interesting for sure. I see all of the D having long development paths except for Buium who doesn't have the size of the others. IMO, Demidov is exactly what the team needs...a dynamic game breaking forward. It's a shame Lindstrom has been battling injuries and that will likely push him down a bit.

my issue with demidov is that he's playing in a shitty league and looked completely outmatched in the handful of KHL games he played in. he's got great hands, but his skating and shot aren't anything special and he's undersized. plus the whole russia thing

drafting a russian with a top 5 pick just isn't smart

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

If we draft him, does he come with his brother? Would be a nice bonus if Shai didn’t sign next year and elects to sign with Zeev’s team.

Red wing fans seem worried he won’t go there, but he’d have a similar issue on anahiem that he has in detroit…. Specially if we draft his brother.

Maybe if we traded a signed player for him to get his rights…. Idk how good shai is tho if it would even be worth it

 

[Terry Yake]

so they'll be drafting 4th or 5th overall. got it

 

[eaterfan]

so they'll be drafting 4th or 5th overall. got it

I think moving up to second may be worse for the Ducks.

It counts as a lottery win, so they would lose one of their move up chances in the future. There isn't a clear number two, so even though the Ducks would be able to get "their guy" (non-Cellebrini division) there is a lot higher chance they are getting the 5-10th best player in the draft than the average #2 pick. Also, because of the wide range of evaluation this year, there is a better than usual chance of the Ducks getting "their guy" with the 4th or 5th overall pick. Teams ahead of them may have completely different draft boards. So the need to have the higher picks to get that guy is less.

I'm rooting for the Ducks to get the number one overall, and I'd rather they didn't move down, but I really don't think there is much of a difference between picks 2-5.