Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[devilsblood]

Not to get too far away from the draft topic, but I can totally see the potential Pesce in, Marino out move being driven just as much by in house analytics than “tougher to play against” hockey guy stuff. From a team building perspective, we’re at the point that we want guys that fit with the cogs we have. It’s entirely possible that they see Hughes-Pesce as a much better fit than Hughes-Marino, and are willing to pay more for it.

Plus such a move does free up Marino as an asset that can be used to address another need.

Marino's, and even Sieg's, contracts do offer some good value, especially to teams who have trouble attracting talent, like say WPG.

So there is something to using the leverage we may have in being an attractive destination, and exploiting teams who have the reverse problem

 

[Captain3rdLine]

And I don't want you to keep blathering on about it , but if he's in a group of guys they will be happy picking at 14, then I could potentially see it.

Especially if one of the big name D fall, and the Devils are really focused on adding a fwd.

If they like a bunch of guys similarly sure. But then they might not end up taking him.

Not sure how the D are related

 

[devilsblood]

If they like a bunch of guys similarly sure. But then they might not end up taking him.

Not sure how the D are related

Point was, if we are focused on taking a fwd, and one of the highly sought d-men drop, while we have 3-4 fwds we really like, then that opens the door to trading down a couple spots.

 

[CalamityX23]

Any NJ Devils hints as to where we're looking at 10oa?

 

[Guadana]

is dennehy on these boards pretty striking difference between:

Konsta "We really like him" Helenius
Sam "We really, really like him" Dickinson
and
Beckett "We interviewed him" Sennecke

Yeah. Nice one on one player. Skilled one. You know. Winger but good, yeah.

Btw we are looking for competent player, dont forget about it.

 

[Zippy316]

@Bleedred I know he’s gonna enjoy this one

I don’t think I’ve ever laughed at a goal more than his first NHL goal. His shot was practically a field goal attempt and he still somehow scored.

 

[forceten]

Any NJ Devils hints as to where we're looking at 10oa?

Little Hutson who will undoubtedly go #1 in a redraft. We can package him in a deal to Montreal for Anderson, but we'll have to add Nemec.

 

[Guttersniped]

Unfortunately Fitz seems to be going more for size.

All it took was us making the playoffs for the first time in years but losing in the second round to a really good team for him to completely abandon the speed game and decide we need big dudes instead.

I have faith in his ability to build a team and make mostly smart moves and deals.

I pretty quickly lost faith in his vision for the team is really what it is. Don’t know if I’ve seen someone fall so quickly into all of the sudden thinking we need to get a bunch of big physical dudes trap.

There's such a strong base already in place that it'd be pretty hard for him to f*** it up and us to not be a contender but I can easily see him taking wrong lessons and it holding us back. Already seeing it with Pesce

What we’re all his size queen moves so far though?

We got Meier but we traded Zetterlund and Okhotyuk to get him. He let Wood walk. He traded Bahl.

And Pesce? We do need to be able to defend against the rush.

The hypothetical of trading Marino and bringing in Pesce might be moving deck chairs but could make sense because:
1) Marino has struggled at times.
2) Marino & Sieg historically have played like crap together and that makes keeping both of them a bit of an issue.

That hypothetical doesn’t make sense unless we trade for his rights though (or tamper lol). Fitz has been trying to stick to an internal cap these days and he can’t count on signing Pesce.

The sucker player is Zadorov, that would give me pause. He’s a #5 with benefits.

 

[Alex NJD]

For context here are some guys the Pronman Wheeler Peters Button McKenzie missed with in 2019. I couldn't find all 5 lists, or at least versions that were close to the draft, for 2018 or earlier.

Seider: Average is well beyond 20, can only find Wheeler's top 31 and he didn't have him on there. Between the 4 others he averages at #20. Picked #6
Soderstrom: Averages #22. Picked #11
Krebs: Averages #10. Picked #17
Caufield: Averages #7, Picked #16

Just goes to show that there are always some considerable differences between the public lists and that of actual teams/scouts and that neither side is always right. It only took a few minutes to grab examples of the public lists being right and wrong in both cases of underrating and overrating guys.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Honestly don’t think it’s nearly as likely we take MBN at 10 as some people on here think.

The only way we take him that high really is if the Devils like him as much as STI which isn’t all that likely. Not many scouts and moreso teams will have him ranked near their top 5 IMO.

We’re not gonna be taking our 10th ranked prospect at 10. It’s most likely gonna be someone we have ranked in the 5-7 or 8 range. What are the odds the devils have someone generally ranked around 15 or slightly later (17 on Bob’s) that high? Not impossible but probably not that likely either. It doesn’t sound like a single scout ranked him higher than 14 in Mackenzie’s poll.


It wasn’t intended to be snarky. Sorry if it came across that way. Was just trying to emphasize how impossible it is to know or even guess at. Based on what I was just saying above I’d say there’s pretty good chance he would still be available but all it takes is one team liking him more than the consensus.

MBN is generally ranked around 15 on public lists, we’re talking about a 5 spot difference in a wide open draft range, go look at pre draft public rankings from players like Simashev, Seider, Sanderson, etc…, these public lists also tend to favor point producers or offense first talent over two way play or defense leaning talent, while the actual NHL draft tends to value two way play and defense. That doesn’t mean I think he’s a sure fire pick, there’s a wide range of players that I consider on the same tier talent wise that they could pick (Iginla, Sennecke, Catton, MBN, Helenius, Eiserman, Dickinson and Buium are all worthy candidates), either way though MBN’s name is clearly in play for the pick when you consider his talent and Dennehy’s comments.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

MBN is generally ranked around 15 on public lists, we’re talking about a 5 spot difference in a wide open draft range, go look at pre draft public rankings from players like Simashev, Seider, Sanderson, etc…, these public lists also tend to favor point producers or offense first talent over two way play or defense leaning talent, while the actual NHL draft tends to value two way play and defense. That doesn’t mean I think he’s a sure fire pick, there’s a wide range of players that I consider on the same tier talent wise that they could pick (Iginla, Sennecke, Catton, MBN, Helenius, Eiserman, Dickinson and Buium are all worthy candidates), either way though MBN’s name is clearly in play for the pick when you consider his talent and Dennehy’s comments.

He was 17th on Mckenzie’s which is by far the most representative but you missed my point. It isn’t a 5 spot difference. If he’s 10th on the devils list they probably aren’t picking him at 10.

Because there’s a very good chance at least a couple players higher on their list are available. I said it’s unlikely they have him ranked around 6 or 7 which is where he probably has to ranked to be taken 10th. Its certainly possible they do but its not nearly as likely as some people here seem to think IMO. It’s the variance you’re talking about that also makes it somewhat unlikely.

How likely do you think it is that the Devils have MBN ranked as high as 6 or 7?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

For context here are some guys the Pronman Wheeler Peters Button McKenzie missed with in 2019. I couldn't find all 5 lists, or at least versions that were close to the draft, for 2018 or earlier.

Seider: Average is well beyond 20, can only find Wheeler's top 31 and he didn't have him on there. Between the 4 others he averages at #20. Picked #6
Soderstrom: Averages #22. Picked #11
Krebs: Averages #10. Picked #17
Caufield: Averages #7, Picked #16

Just goes to show that there are always some considerable differences between the public lists and that of actual teams/scouts and that neither side is always right. It only took a few minutes to grab examples of the public lists being right and wrong in both cases of underrating and overrating guys.

You’re better off just taking Mckenzie’s rankings than averaging them and the results aren’t as bad then. The other ones are just those people’s personable opinions. But yes given how much each scout and teams rankings will vary there is always going to be quite a bit of variance between even the most accurate rankings and what actually happens.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Parekh is the only guy in top of the rankings that I would actively avoid drafting because of team fit, as dumb as that could look down the road if he’s a star (this post all but ensures he’s the next Makar). Basically everyone else I could be convinced is a fine pick.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Craig Button's mock draft. Just for fun.

1. Sharks: Celebrini
2. Blackhawks: Demidov
3. Ducks: Buium
4. Blue Jackets: Lindstrom
5. Canadiens: Iginla
6. Utah: Levshunov
7. Senators: Parekh
8. Kraken: Dickinson
9. Flames: Silayev
10. Devils: Sennecke
11. Sabres: Yakemchuk
12. Flyers: Helenius
13. Wild: Eiserman
14. Sharks: Jiricek
15. Red Wings: Catton

Craig Button's NHL Mock Draft: Celebrini the only certainty in unpredictable class | TSN

Much like how everyone knew the Chicago Blackhawks were taking Connor Bedard with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, it’s no secret who the San Jose Sharks will be selecting first overall on Friday night.

www.tsn.ca

 

[My3Sons]

For context here are some guys the Pronman Wheeler Peters Button McKenzie missed with in 2019. I couldn't find all 5 lists, or at least versions that were close to the draft, for 2018 or earlier.

Seider: Average is well beyond 20, can only find Wheeler's top 31 and he didn't have him on there. Between the 4 others he averages at #20. Picked #6
Soderstrom: Averages #22. Picked #11
Krebs: Averages #10. Picked #17
Caufield: Averages #7, Picked #16

Just goes to show that there are always some considerable differences between the public lists and that of actual teams/scouts and that neither side is always right. It only took a few minutes to grab examples of the public lists being right and wrong in both cases of underrating and overrating guys.

McKenzie's list had Seider at 16. Not 6 but mid first round for a prospect from an unheralded place is pretty impressive.

 

[Guttersniped]

McKenzie had this amazing thread in 2021 where he predicted the first 16 picks correctly.

 

[Lou Bloom]

He was 17th on Mckenzie’s which is by far the most representative but you missed my point. It isn’t a 5 spot difference. If he’s 10th on the devils list they probably aren’t picking him at 10.

Because there’s a very good chance at least a couple players higher on their list are available. I said it’s unlikely they have him ranked around 6 or 7 which is where he probably has to ranked to be taken 10th. Its certainly possible they do but its not nearly as likely as some people here seem to think IMO. It’s the variance you’re talking about that also makes it somewhat unlikely.

How likely do you think it is that the Devils have MBN ranked as high as 6 or 7?

You could use that same logic when bringing up players like Seider, Sanderson and Simashev, there’s going to be players selected much higher or much lower than on McKenzies rankings and having watched all these players MBN strikes me as a player being generally underrated on public lists who should go higher in the actual draft.

When you add together the mix of MBN being underrated by public lists, Team fit for the Devils and the general close range in talent between 5-20 in this class and I can absolutely see MBN being very high on the Devils board.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

You could use that same logic when bringing up players like Seider, Sanderson and Simashev, there’s going to be players selected much higher or much lower than on McKenzies rankings and having watched all these players MBN strikes me as a player being generally underrated on public lists who should go higher in the actual draft.

When you add together the mix of MBN being underrated by public lists, Team fit for the Devils and the general close range in talent between 5-20 in this class and I can absolutely see MBN being very high on the Devils board.

Jeez man it wasn’t to say it can’t or won’t happen. All I said is it isn’t as likely as a lot of people seem the think. There’s people on here who seem to think it’s a very likely thing when frankly it isn’t because it’s just not very likely the devils have him as high as 6th or 7th.


Sanderson was also ranked 8th coming in and as high as 3rd by 2 of the 10 scouts he polled so I’m not sure why you included him. And yes you can use the same logic with Seider and Simashev. They were unlikely to be taken as high as they were coming in. That’s why it was unexpected and a surprise when it happened. That’s very different than sitting here acting like it’s very likely they take a guy expected to go lower.

Also every draft is close after the top guy. Everyone says that every single year.

McKenzie had this amazing thread in 2021 where he predicted the first 16 picks correctly.

Damn that’s impressive. Have to wonder if he was getting tipped off but if not maybe he should skip polling the scouts and just do his own mock draft every year lol. Then we’ll know how the drafts gonna play out I suppose.

 

[Guadana]

I appreciate all the insight this board has provided - particularly for Nygard - and I'm far from a draft expert or even novice, but seeing him ranked 14th, 15th, 17th, 17th & 17th on the composite list I posted earlier does give me some pause. At the very least, it seems like relatively poor value to not trade down a few spots and get him (though I know if you really, really like a player it's tough to take that risk).

Personally, I hope for Dickinson or another LHD...but again, what do I know. I recall not being thrilled with Nemec at the time of the pick and look how that turned out. Looking forward to going back and reading about the prospect we eventually do wind up picking.

You are making mistake when you are mixing opinions of scouts and writers. And overall with "who will be better player and how easy he can translate and develop his game".

If you want Nygard at 10 you dont trade this pick for 14th because someone has him at 17 or even 20. His consolidated rating is 13. And it does mean nothing. Some writers have Sennecke and Catton over Demidov. You will see how he will be drafted over them. Even one scout said the same thing. Imagine the face of gm who think that its okay to trade 2nd pick for 4+ because he think Demidov will be available. Some scouts can even think that Reinbacher is a better player than Michkov. Its interesting how long they will continue to work(if they will continue - its question for GM and his competence).
And some scouts (and writers) thought that Holtz is better prospect than Quinn or Jarvis or Lundell. Yurov was drafted in 20's.

Its not about how "majority" is thinking about prospect, it is important how your scouts are thinking about prospect. And if he is number 6 on your board - you are drafting him by 10th pick. If he will become a bust - you will fire your scouts. If he will develop well - Seider was named as a reach. Gauthier was named as a reach for number 5th pick

 

[Brodeur]

For context here are some guys the Pronman Wheeler Peters Button McKenzie missed with in 2019. I couldn't find all 5 lists, or at least versions that were close to the draft, for 2018 or earlier.

Seider: Average is well beyond 20, can only find Wheeler's top 31 and he didn't have him on there. Between the 4 others he averages at #20. Picked #6
Soderstrom: Averages #22. Picked #11
Krebs: Averages #10. Picked #17
Caufield: Averages #7, Picked #16

Just goes to show that there are always some considerable differences between the public lists and that of actual teams/scouts and that neither side is always right. It only took a few minutes to grab examples of the public lists being right and wrong in both cases of underrating and overrating guys.

Teams might have been scared off of Krebs' late season injury. I remember feeling bad for him since they somehow didn't give him a seat close to the stage and he had to gingerly limp down several rows. I think there was some draft floor footage from Montreal released later which showed Vegas trying to trade up to #15 presumably for Krebs.

I vaguely recall having Seider to Arizona (originally #14) in a mock. Seemed like a late riser from what I remember.

And sometimes it's just a perfect storm like when Sykora/Parise fell to us. Awhile back, somebody posted an interesting photo of a Parise Thrashers draft day jersey that somebody bought at a team sale.

Cam Fowler unexpectedly fell to #12 in 2010. Anaheim lucked out as seemingly the teams picking #4-10 either were focused on a forward and/or had recently used a 1st rounder on an offensive minded LHD. I think after the draft Anaheim's GM mentioned that they had Fowler (and Brandon Gormley) in their top 5.

 

[Brodeur]

McKenzie had this amazing thread in 2021 where he predicted the first 16 picks correctly.

Now that I had my memory jogged, it almost seemed like Bob's passive aggressive way of giving the middle finger since 2021 was the first year since like the 80s where he wasn't on either the Canadian/American broadcasts.

 

[Guadana]

Jeez man it wasn’t to say it can’t or won’t happen. All I said is it isn’t as likely as a lot of people seem the think. There’s people on here who seem to think it’s a very likely thing when frankly it isn’t because it’s just not very likely the devils have him as high as 6th or 7th.


Sanderson was also ranked 8th coming in and as high as 3rd by 2 of the 10 scouts he polled so I’m not sure why you included him. And yes you can use the same logic with Seider and Simashev. They were unlikely to be taken as high as they were coming in. That’s why it was unexpected and a surprise when it happened. That’s very different than sitting here acting like it’s very likely they take a guy expected to go lower.

Also every draft is close after the top guy. Everyone says that every single year.


Damn that’s impressive. Have to wonder if he was getting tipped off but if not maybe he should skip polling the scouts and just do his own mock draft every year lol. Then we’ll know how the drafts gonna play out I suppose.

I believe you dont understand correctly my opinion or opinion of Steve.
At least I think we should draft Nygard. Doesnt mean I think we will. I think Fitz will draft different player. I think it will be Sennecke(wich I will not like but I will live with it) or Helenius(wich I like more) or some defenseman if guy like Dickinson or Silayev will be available.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Jeez man it wasn’t to say it can’t or won’t happen. All I said is it isn’t as likely as a lot of people seem the think. There’s people on here who seem to think it’s a very likely thing when frankly it isn’t because it’s just not very likely the devils have him as high as 6th or 7th.


Sanderson was also ranked 8th coming in and as high as 3rd by 2 of the 10 scouts he polled so I’m not sure why you included him. And yes you can use the same logic with Seider and Simashev. They were unlikely to be taken as high as they were coming in. That’s why it was unexpected and a surprise when it happened. That’s very different than sitting here acting like it’s very likely they take a guy expected to go lower.

Also every draft is close after the top guy. Everyone says that every single year.


Damn that’s impressive. Have to wonder if he was getting tipped off but if not maybe he should skip polling the scouts and just do his own mock draft every year lol. Then we’ll know how the drafts gonna play out I suppose.

It depends on what you mean by likely. If I were placing odds on who’d be the pick MBN would certainly be one of the favorites due to talent and team fit, with that said though there’s nearly 10 names that I could see being the pick right now between MBN, Helenius, Iginla, Catton, Eiserman, Sennecke, Dickinson, Buium and Solberg. So in the grand scheme of likelihood it’s unlikely to be MBN due to a wide range of player choices but he would be up there as one of the favorites out of that group IMO.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806052695847137510

Decent list

 

[Guttersniped]

Parekh is the only guy in top of the rankings that I would actively avoid drafting because of team fit, as dumb as that could look down the road if he’s a star (this post all but ensures he’s the next Makar). Basically everyone else I could be convinced is a fine pick.

I feel like we’re passing on the physically weak offense defenseman and that’s ok. (And I like Parekh.)

I have vivid nightmares where we take Yakemchuk.