Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Captain3rdLine]

I do feel like our draft day trade in 2016 of swapping #11 and #12 was probably bc Shero made it known he was trying to move back from #11 and Ottawa quickly offered a 3rd to make sure no one jumped them to grab Logan Brown

BTW are there any cases/rumors of us trying to trade up/down in recent history? Last I remember is that Shero apparently wanted to use our 2nds in 2015 to get into the late 1st and grab Konecny but Vancouver didn't budge and took Boeser

I think that’s highly unlikely and think the vast majority of trades down happen mostly because another team wanted to trade up to get a guy.

I think it’s very likely Ottawa really wanted brown and didn’t want us to take him and we liked McLeod but also Brown or someone else similarly. Or it was only McLeod or only Brown and we felt a 3rd round pick was worth that difference. But Ottawa only trades a 3rd round pick to move up one spot because they wanted Brown bad (looks stupid now lol).

We’ve heard before about Fitz exploring trading down but I don’t think that’s the kind of thing the team looking to do that can make happen. Has to be a team behind them that really likes a guy.

In this draft if Buium is still sitting there at 8, or 9 I’m calling those teams and offering a 3rd round because he’s one of my personal favourites. Otherwise if he ain’t and it gets to me at 10, regardless of who’s available I’m taking my favorite one to give myself the best chance at getting an impactful player. Unless I get offered some great value by someone else trying to move up.

 

[ScottyK]

To add on to the post above there was a main board thread from the guy who runs the prospect black book or something. He mentioned in one of his posts that scouts generally have somewhat different lists then all the online/media lists which just tend to kind of copy copy each other. In 2019, aside from Detroit I bet at least a few teams had Seider top 10 on their board so they took him at #6 rather than trade back. I could definitely see that being a similar case with Solberg, shut down defender, physical, good skater, apparently killed his interviews at the combine. He has lots of qualities NHL GMs love (similar to Dickinson in that sense).

I do feel like our draft day trade in 2016 of swapping #11 and #12 was probably bc Shero made it known he was trying to move back from #11 and Ottawa quickly offered a 3rd to make sure no one jumped them to grab Logan Brown

BTW are there any cases/rumors of us trying to trade up/down in recent history? Last I remember is that Shero apparently wanted to use our 2nds in 2015 to get into the late 1st and grab Konecny but Vancouver didn't budge and took Boeser

Forgot which member in the media said it somewhat recently but we heavily entertained trading down from 2 the yr we took nemec.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I’m not sure why people keep saying this kind of stuff. It gets no less annoying and stupid. Just because some media people have a player that ranked lower than where they are picked, doesn’t mean the team could’ve traded down and still gotten that player. Its a really stupid assumption.

For all we know the team picking 21st would have taken Mukhammadullin. Or one of the others just after. For all we know if we trade back one of the next teams will take Solberg. If we like a player enough to take him there, you can bet there’s a pretty good chance others in the area do as well. If you like a player and think he’s worthy of being picked there you take him.

There’s only two reasons to trade down. One is because you’re being offered a trade that is too valuable to pass up. The other is if you have a bunch of equally ranked prospects and are still sure to get one of them. Neither of those reasons is that public models have him lower than we’re picking so he’ll definitely still be available. That’s stupid and those media rankings don’t mean a damn thing once draft day comes.

If you got a guy and think he’s the best there, you take him regardless of where the media has him.

Sorry for the slightly aggressive tone in this post but people complaining about not trading down because a player was considered a “reach” annoys the shit out of me.

You're certainly making sense here. Solberg at #10 is a good pick. Nygard at #10 is a good pick. Doesn't matter where the consensus has them, they are both unique players and if you want them at #10 you take them at #10.

 

[My3Sons]

Forgot which member in the media said it somewhat recently but we heavily entertained trading down from 2 the yr we took nemec.

No not that they entertained trading down. They entertained trading thr second overall pick for Josh Anderson from Montreal.

 

[britdevil]

But will he cut the mustard in the NHL? I know, I know…

I’m better than that joke. Well, not really.

I mustard-mit, I thought it was pretty good.

How much mileage can we squeeze out of this?

 

[TBF1972]

I think that’s highly unlikely and think the vast majority of trades down happen mostly because another team wanted to trade up to get a guy.

I think it’s very likely Ottawa really wanted brown and didn’t want us to take him and we liked McLeod but also Brown or someone else similarly. Or it was only McLeod or only Brown and we felt a 3rd round pick was worth that difference. But Ottawa only trades a 3rd round pick to move up one spot because they wanted Brown bad (looks stupid now lol).

We’ve heard before about Fitz exploring trading down but I don’t think that’s the kind of thing the team looking to do that can make happen. Has to be a team behind them that really likes a guy.

In this draft if Buium is still sitting there at 8, or 9 I’m calling those teams and offering a 3rd round because he’s one of my personal favourites. Otherwise if he ain’t and it gets to me at 10, regardless of who’s available I’m taking my favorite one to give myself the best chance at getting an impactful player. Unless I get offered some great value by someone else trying to move up.

picking mcleod doesn't look much smarter today

 

[longislanddevil]

I’m not sure why people keep saying this kind of stuff. It gets no less annoying and stupid. Just because some media people have a player that ranked lower than where they are picked, doesn’t mean the team could’ve traded down and still gotten that player. Its a really stupid assumption.

For all we know the team picking 21st would have taken Mukhammadullin. Or one of the others just after. For all we know if we trade back one of the next teams will take Solberg. If we like a player enough to take him there, you can bet there’s a pretty good chance others in the area do as well. If you like a player and think he’s worthy of being picked there you take him.

There’s only two reasons to trade down. One is because you’re being offered a trade that is too valuable to pass up. The other is if you have a bunch of equally ranked prospects and are still sure to get one of them. Neither of those reasons is that public models have him lower than we’re picking so he’ll definitely still be available. That’s stupid and those media rankings don’t mean a damn thing once draft day comes.

If you got a guy and think he’s the best there, you take him regardless of where the media has him.

Sorry for the slightly aggressive tone in this post but people complaining about not trading down because a player was considered a “reach” annoys the shit out of me.

Completely disagree with one caveat- sometimes there is no trade to be made as it takes a dance partner.

I’m not advocating to trade back 10+ spots. If there’s a trade to be made with Chicago, for example, and you can accrue a 2nd round pick to slide back four spots for a player that has an outstanding chance to be there at 14OA….why wouldn’t you do it? I would hope that Fitz and scouts know teams’ draft tendencies and organizational needs. If not, there’s a problem. If you’re reasonably confident you’ll still get your guy by trading down, do it. Asset management. That extra 2nd round pick can be valuable to either add depth to the prospect pool or to use in a trade for immediate help (if it’s a ‘25 pick). Asset and draft management. There’s an art to working the draft. I’m sorry but being conservative to a fault is poor strategy.

Consensus rankings are just that- an overview of what the majority thinks. We can formulate a general idea of where players will be picked for the most part (especially the first round). It’s a calculated gamble to trade back but one I’m more than willing to take if the strong likelihood is the player I want will still be on the board. I’m not risk adverse. This is just one scenario. Another scenario is a team having multiple players they rank very similarly. In this case, I think it’s borderline egregious to not explore and execute a trade down, if possible, if the reward outweighs the risk.

 

[My3Sons]

Completely disagree with one caveat- sometimes there is no trade to be made as it takes a dance partner.

I’m not advocating to trade back 10+ spots. If there’s a trade to be made with Chicago, for example, and you can accrue a 2nd round pick to slide back four spots for a player that has an outstanding chance to be there at 14OA….why wouldn’t you do it? I would hope that Fitz and scouts know teams’ draft tendencies and organizational needs. If not, there’s a problem. If you’re reasonably confident you’ll still get your guy by trading down, do it. Asset management. That extra 2nd round pick can be valuable to either add depth to the prospect pool or to use in a trade for immediate help (if it’s a ‘25 pick). Asset and draft management. There’s an art to working the draft. I’m sorry but being conservative to a fault is poor strategy.

Consensus rankings are just that- an overview of what the majority thinks. We can formulate a general idea of where players will be picked for the most part (especially the first round). It’s a calculated gamble to trade back but one I’m more than willing to take if the strong likelihood is the player I want will still be on the board. I’m not risk adverse. This is just one scenario. Another scenario is a team having multiple players they rank very similarly. In this case, I think it’s borderline egregious to not explore and execute a trade down, if possible, if the reward outweighs the risk.

I’m guessing that’s essentially what they did to draft Casey. Swapping picks with the Caps and picking up Vitek in the process.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Do the odds go as far as 10th overall for sports betting? Interested who Vegas thinks NJ drafts. I’ve only seen it go to the Habs pick.

 

[Brodeur]

2024 Draft: Prospects passed over in 2023 | NHL.com

Romani, Nabokov among 2024 NHL Draft prospects passed over in 2023

www.nhl.com

Saw a thread about overagers for the draft, one guy who caught my eye was center Ondrej Becher.

Ondrej Becher, C, Prince George (WHL): Becher (6-1, 187) finished fourth on the Cougars with 96 points (32 goals, 64 assists) and had 29 power-play points (eight goals, 21 assists) in 58 regular-season games. The 20-year-old from Ostrava, Czech Republic, has been passed over the previous two drafts, but could be reliable in a bottom-six role because he's skilled and isn't afraid to block shots. No. 69 on Central Scouting's final ranking of North American skaters, Becher also won 51.9 percent of his face-offs (476-for-918). He had 10 points (three goals, seven assists) and averaged 17:59 of ice time in seven games for bronze medal-winning Czechia at the 2024 IIHF World Junior Championship.

Maybe a candidate for the Winnipeg 3rd? Since he's 20, he could jump to the AHL for next season.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I mustard-mit, I thought it was pretty good.

How much mileage can we squeeze out of this?

Haha, I think we're done here.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think that’s highly unlikely and think the vast majority of trades down happen mostly because another team wanted to trade up to get a guy.

I think it’s very likely Ottawa really wanted brown and didn’t want us to take him and we liked McLeod but also Brown or someone else similarly. Or it was only McLeod or only Brown and we felt a 3rd round pick was worth that difference. But Ottawa only trades a 3rd round pick to move up one spot because they wanted Brown bad (looks stupid now lol).

We’ve heard before about Fitz exploring trading down but I don’t think that’s the kind of thing the team looking to do that can make happen. Has to be a team behind them that really likes a guy.

In this draft if Buium is still sitting there at 8, or 9 I’m calling those teams and offering a 3rd round because he’s one of my personal favourites. Otherwise if he ain’t and it gets to me at 10, regardless of who’s available I’m taking my favorite one to give myself the best chance at getting an impactful player. Unless I get offered some great value by someone else trying to move up.

I think everybody agrees on Buium -- @Guadana loves him, @evnted loves him, I love him. I'd say his hockey IQ is the highest level of elite -- not only is he smart with and without the puck, but his ability to manipulate opposing forecheckers to set up his incredible outlet passing and transition abilities is really rare. The way Buium adapts his game for isolated situations is incredible for a 17/18 year old. I think he's special and -- as much as I love some of the forwards who will be available -- I almost think you have to take him if he's available at #10 overall.

No not that they entertained trading down. They entertained trading thr second overall pick for Josh Anderson from Montreal.

Pretty sure Montreal laughed at the offer and demanded both Hughes brothers as part of the package for Josh Anderson.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2024 Draft: Prospects passed over in 2023 | NHL.com

Romani, Nabokov among 2024 NHL Draft prospects passed over in 2023

www.nhl.com

Saw a thread about overagers for the draft, one guy who caught my eye was center Ondrej Becher.



Maybe a candidate for the Winnipeg 3rd? Since he's 20, he could jump to the AHL for next season.

Pumping overages hurts my soul ever since Logan Morrison. NJ could have had him for nothing, and he'd likely be making the Devils out of camp next year as the 3C or 4C. They could have had Morrison for a 7th round pick, or even a phone call. My soul hurts.

 

[Guadana]

I think everybody agrees on Buium -- @Guadana loves him, @evnted loves him, I love him. I'd say his hockey IQ is the highest level of elite -- not only is he smart with and without the puck, but his ability to manipulate opposing forecheckers to set up his incredible outlet passing and transition abilities is really rare. The way Buium adapts his game for isolated situations is incredible for a 17/18 year old. I think he's special and -- as much as I love some of the forwards who will be available -- I almost think you have to take him if he's available at #10 overall.


Pretty sure Montreal laughed at the offer and demanded both Hughes brothers as part of the package for Josh Anderson.

I would take him if he is available because he is my number 4 on my list. I will not take him even if he is available if my number 3 or number 2 are available.

This is my problem with trading 10 pick for 14 pick. I understand it, im not against it, but why I should trade 10 pick if my number 5 is available when 6, 7, 8, 9 are not available and in the next 4 picks teams can draft my top-5, 10, 11, 12. I had a chance to draft my top 5 prospect but I will draft my 13 prospect. Its bad.

 

[evnted]

I think everybody agrees on Buium -- @Guadana loves him, @evnted loves him, I love him. I'd say his hockey IQ is the highest level of elite -- not only is he smart with and without the puck, but his ability to manipulate opposing forecheckers to set up his incredible outlet passing and transition abilities is really rare. The way Buium adapts his game for isolated situations is incredible for a 17/18 year old. I think he's special and -- as much as I love some of the forwards who will be available -- I almost think you have to take him if he's available at #10 overall.

the bold is big for me here. anyone who was in this thread right when it started might remember i was a bit lower on buium than i am now. not to say i disliked him per se, but i didnt fully buy into the upper end projection, and i thought performances like his wjc showing were getting overrated (i still do, but i buy more of what people were seeing lol)

the way he closed the season was incredible. it was almost like a switch flipped and he cut all the overhandlings at the point, hyper aggressive pinches, etc. and simultaneously built more upon his physical play along the boards, off puck positional game, etc. i had tried to defend someone like levshunov over him for a while, but theres simply no case to be made, and it was made abundantly clear by the end of the season and into the playoff games. buium is better offensively and defensively in spite of the lesser tools

 

[longislanddevil]

Pumping overages hurts my soul ever since Logan Morrison. NJ could have had him for nothing, and he'd likely be making the Devils out of camp next year as the 3C or 4C. They could have had Morrison for a 7th round pick, or even a phone call. My soul hurts.

I remember you pumping that kid’s tires quite a bit. I was surprised he fell so far. Bummer for us.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Do the odds go as far as 10th overall for sports betting? Interested who Vegas thinks NJ drafts. I’ve only seen it go to the Habs pick.

I don’t see any specific odds for the 10th pick, but here’s a look at some of the names that have been thrown around here from DraftKings:

Sennecke (to go under 11.5): -200
Catton (under 9.5): +110
Helenius (under 11.5): +180
MBN (under 15.5): -105
Solberg (under 16.5): -165

 

[Devs3cups]

Watching Solberg highlights gets me excited.

Kid looks like a better skating David Jiricek with more offensive smoothness and skill. Probably inaccurate and only focused on his physical play, but still. We could use a D-man like that on our left side.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I remember you pumping that kid’s tires quite a bit. I was surprised he fell so far. Bummer for us.

Morrison looked very impressive in the AHL last year and even got a cup of coffee with the Kraken. I'm guessing he will make the NHL team this year out of camp.

I get the Devils passing on him as an 18 year old, but after his brilliant 2021-22 and 2022-23 campaigns it was harder to understand. I mean, Morrison played multiple seasons on the same Hamilton Bulldogs team as 2023 pick Cole Brown, and you didn't exactly need to be a pro scout to realize Morrison was the far-greater-upside player at a more valuable position. It's no secret the Devils pool is bereft at center -- what would make their scouts watch Morrison scoring 100+ points and dominating in the CHL playoffs and think, "nah we don't need to offer him a try-out"?

So yeah, my feelings are still hurting haha.

I don’t see any specific odds for the 10th pick, but here’s a look at some of the names that have been thrown around here from DraftKings:

Sennecke (to go under 11.5): -200
Catton (under 9.5): +110
Helenius (under 11.5): +180
MBN (under 15.5): -105
Solberg (under 16.5): -165

That's four high-end, top-10 worthy prospects and one, ah... 6'3 Canadian kid who scores a lot in the high-profile OHL.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

That's four high-end, top-10 worthy prospects and one, ah... 6'3 Canadian kid who scores a lot in the high-profile OHL.

There’s good money in being 6-3 and scoring a lot

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I'd be all over Catton if he falls to 10.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'd be all over Catton if he falls to 10.

Nothing will be shocking in this draft after Celebrini goes #1. There's industry talk of Demidov falling out of the top 5, and he's closer in ability to Celebrini than the rest of the field. I've seen both Lindstrom and Silayev mocked at #2 overall and out of the top 10 entirely.

Normally we discuss a top-of-the-draft hopeful in terms like "he will probably go in the #6-#10 range". Now, I find myself saying things like, "yeah I'm guessing he will be taken between #4 and #20".

I'd say the earliest I could see Catton going is Montreal at #5. But I've just seen him mocked by Craig Button to Detroit at #15, and that's not impossible either. Remember Cole Perfetti -- people had him at #4 or #5 and he wound up going #10 to Winnipeg. Catton has a very similar resume thus far in a draft with a similar talent level.

The Devils might be considering around 10 players for the #10 pick, which is patently absurd if we stop to think about it. But outside of Demidov, Lindstrom or Levshunov it would be tough for me to categorize anyone being available at #10 in this particular draft a "fall".

 

[NJ DevLolz]

The Button hate is a little extreme imo. He’s actually been the third most accurate public scout in the last decade (after Chris Peters and Cam Robinson). His voice is definitely worthwhile.

The Top-Five Scouts Within the First Round of the Draft

Beginning to recognize scouting lists for their proficiency and consistency.

open.substack.com

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Completely disagree with one caveat- sometimes there is no trade to be made as it takes a dance partner.

I’m not advocating to trade back 10+ spots. If there’s a trade to be made with Chicago, for example, and you can accrue a 2nd round pick to slide back four spots for a player that has an outstanding chance to be there at 14OA….why wouldn’t you do it? I would hope that Fitz and scouts know teams’ draft tendencies and organizational needs. If not, there’s a problem. If you’re reasonably confident you’ll still get your guy by trading down, do it. Asset management. That extra 2nd round pick can be valuable to either add depth to the prospect pool or to use in a trade for immediate help (if it’s a ‘25 pick). Asset and draft management. There’s an art to working the draft. I’m sorry but being conservative to a fault is poor strategy.

Consensus rankings are just that- an overview of what the majority thinks. We can formulate a general idea of where players will be picked for the most part (especially the first round). It’s a calculated gamble to trade back but one I’m more than willing to take if the strong likelihood is the player I want will still be on the board. I’m not risk adverse. This is just one scenario. Another scenario is a team having multiple players they rank very similarly. In this case, I think it’s borderline egregious to not explore and execute a trade down, if possible, if the reward outweighs the risk.

Your whole argument falls apart if they aren’t willing to trade a 2nd to move up four spots. Which in most cases they won’t be unless a guy they love is there. In that case they’re calling you and offering value you shouldn’t pass up. That’s one the scenarios I talked about.

Otherwise, if the guy you want is there you take him regardless of where the media has them.

 

[Saugus]

Button may not be the best evaluator of talent out there, but his views are useful, because as a former GM, he knows how they think.

Sometimes his views reflect the biases that GMs have, even if he isn’t identifying strictly the best player available at each slot.