Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[StevenToddIves]

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His production looks pretty good when you look at the rest of his team. Compared to how Tij looks on his team:

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Greentree has no chance to make it inside my top 25. Therefore he would be a very poorly conceived pick at #10.

Though I do admire Greentree's offensive skill, which is quite significant, he also comes with a lot of warning signs he will need to overcome to even make the NHL. First off, he is a below-average skater. Though his extreme skill allows him to overcome this at the OHL level, in international play he has looked largely blown away by the pace of the game.

Perhaps more importantly, this is not a player known for compete level or attention to detail off the puck. Unless he can markedly improve these weaknesses, his skill -- though quite impressive -- is not otherworldly enough to overcome a combination of lack of general speed and intensity.

Ultimately, I'll probably rank Greentree towards the end of my 1st round based on the skill alone, which is tough to ignore. But as for now, comparing him based on strictly statistics to Tij Iginla is actually quite unfair to Iginla, who is hard on pucks and hustles all over the ice to contribute in any way possible to the overall team game.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Button has Helenius as his 3rd rated prospect in the draft.

Craig’s List: Konsta Helenius, Tij Iginla push into top five | TSN

The 2024 NHL Draft is loaded with a number of quality defencemen, but TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button sees forwards making a late push toward the top.

www.tsn.ca

"Lower Case Sasha Barkov" -- I loved that line on Helenius.

I honestly feel that, after a pretty obvious 1/2 of Celebrini/Demidov, this draft is wide open.

An educated prospect writer can make a reasonable argument to have any of 8 players ranked #3 overall. Helenius? Levshunov? Lindstrom? Buium? Catton? They all have reasonable arguments, depending on what you like in a player.

Konsta Helenius combines an elite IQ and compete level with checks in every category of the tool kit. He's a good skater and shooter and excellent passer and puck-handler. He's outstanding in all three zones. If you love kids who play smart, he's in the conversation for the best in the draft, though I'd probably put him 3rd after Demidov and Celebrini.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

NJ will have one shot to draft Poirier, that 3rd round pick (I think it's #74 overall).

Poirier is likely to go probably in the #50-#70 range in my opinion, because although many teams will be scared off by the 5'8/meh-skating combo, he scored 50+ goals in the Q and that is saying a lot. Either way, I don't see him getting to Round 4.

Yea, I’m not sure he makes it that far. The one thing he won’t need to do is add any weight, he can spend the next 3 years working completely on his quickness and overall speed. A lot of poor skaters need to add strength and weight as well, which usually slow you down while trying to improve speed.

 

[StevenToddIves]

not Devils related but do you guys think Lindstrom or Demidov will be available for the Habs pick?


Huh, usually he dumps on players having a "so so" worlds. I'm quite surprised.

I think it's *possible* but very, very unlikely. Combined, I'd give it a very low chance they fall too far in the 2024 draft.

With Demidov, we know about the problems some teams have with drafting out of Russia so it's not worth repeating right now. But -- just as Michkov was the clear cut #2 last year (he went to Philadelphia at #7), Demidov is the clear cut #2 now, and there's no guarantee he will be picked 2nd or even 3rd. However, the idea of a kid with the requisite talent to one day lead the NHL in scoring falling to #5 seems remote.

With Lindstrom -- well, he hasn't been getting a lot of love recently from the draft-writing community. This likely has a lot to do with the fact he's been injured much of the year in an industry where "recency bias" is a very real thing. Also, I think people often see him as an "athlete" when, in fact, he's actually an incredibly smart hockey player.

Ultimately, NHL front offices like different things than many draft writers. Lindstrom is 6'4 and built like a truck, he is an outstanding skater who plays with high compete, and his offensive skill set is absolutely fantastic. I can't see him falling past both Anaheim and Columbus at #3 and #4.

I swear they all read our boards. This crap happens every year where OUR draft experts highlight lower ranked guys and suddenly they're the darlings of the draft.

I admit I'm a bit upset I didn't copyright my rankings after seeing where Button had Stian Solberg and EJ Emery. For the sake of future bragging rights let's all remember I was the first one to include them in a top 20 list haha.

 

[thethinglonger]

First off, it is TERRIFIC to hear from you. Are you a lawyer yet?

I agree on Helenius. He has to be the odds-on favorite if he falls to #10, and anyone who can't tell he's going to be a heck of an NHLer is, in my humble opinion, smoking something still not legal in Denver.

But if Helenius is gone I can see Fitzgerald going with Nygard. Also we should mention the LD -- I think Silayev and Dickinson will certainly be gone by #10, but if Buium falls I think Fitzgerald would have to consider him.

In regards to your sleeper list -- thanks! I hope you liked the Poirier write-up and Gojsic is already on my list of LWs to write up. I'll add Swanson, though I was saving him if I was going to do a list of "deep sleepers". He's a good player, for sure.

Great to hear from you, Steve! Yes I am! I've been working as a public defender for the past few years. I absolutely love it. I've kept quiet online for the most part since some personal struggles and keeping busy with work, but things have started to balance out pretty nicely!

Agreed on all fronts. It certainly strikes me that one of those three (Helenius/Nygard/Buium) will be the pick, especially if the board shakes out as anticipated.

Hope you're doing well! Looking forward to being more active again.

 

[Guttersniped]

Is Lindstrom falling in the draft?

Gimme him st 10 if u expectedly possible

I know there’s some internet doctors worried about his back injury (back surgery?) but I don’t know how serious it actually is.

 

[Brodeur]

Some potential later-round players that I really like are:

Hiroki Gojsic - Forward, Kelowna Rockets (WHL)

He's definitely my favorite half-Japanese, half-Croatian prospect. I did stumble on his highlight reel a few months back (probably looking up Tij Iginla videos) and he's got a younger brother who's going to join Kelowna next season.

With Lindstrom -- well, he hasn't been getting a lot of love recently from the draft-writing community. This likely has a lot to do with the fact he's been injured much of the year in an industry where "recency bias" is a very real thing. Also, I think people often see him as an "athlete" when, in fact, he's actually an incredibly smart hockey player.

That reminds me a bit of Luke's draft year. He was #5 on Bob McKenzie's survey in April 2021 and ended up #8 in his final survey in July 2021 despite not playing. Luke missed the U18s due to injury and that dropped him in the view of some respondents.

 

[HobokenIrish]

The athletic posted a 2 round mock from Pronman and Wheeler. They have us taking Beckett Sennecke

 

[Xirik]

The athletic posted a 2 round mock from Pronman and Wheeler. They have us taking Beckett Sennecke

Would be nice to have a good rookie to play for the Devils during the 2026-27 season.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

The athletic posted a 2 round mock from Pronman and Wheeler. They have us taking Beckett Sennecke

It would be a reach of a pick. I highly doubt yhe Devils would do that without trading down. I see them taking a player ranked in the top 15 with tier top 10 pick and not doing anything crazy. There is so many players to like in that range too.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The athletic posted a 2 round mock from Pronman and Wheeler. They have us taking Beckett Sennecke

That's draft hype for you. I can't see the Devils taking Sennecke. It's not impossible, but Fitzgerald has yet to fall for just-pre-draft-hype and I don't see it happening now.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2024 Draft Profile:

LW Trevor Connelly, Tri-City USHL
Trevor Connelly has a gift few possess and thousands upon thousands of young men could only dream of. He is not only good at hockey, he is almost astoundingly talented. On the basis of talent alone, Connelly would be a top 10 pick in the 2024 NHL draft. He's in the conversation for best skating forward in the entire class, and combines that with a projectable 6'1 frame and a high-end mix of virtually every offensive tool in the kit. Connelly is a terrific puck handler, passer and shooter. He has all the criteria necessary to be a first-line winger in the NHL.

Unfortunately, I'm writing this to say I would not draft him under any circumstance, nor will I be ranking him at all. Because this is a kid whose lack of any discernible character has bounced him from program to program throughout his brief amateur career, and a kid who has made adversaries so angry they've been willing to speak out and try to sabotage his NHL future at virtually every step of the way.

I'm a hockey writer not a psychoanalyst, so I'm not going to delve too deeply into it. But there have been multiple racist incidents, multiple accusations of bullying of both opponents and teammates, and a startling multitude of parents willing to speak out against him. Until the recent WJAC tournament, all of the incidents have been off-ice, but despite whispers of the team being quite unhappy with his selection, Connelly was named to Team USA. After a good start to the tournament, Connelly again proved his detractors right. In a medal game vs. Canada with Team USA up 4-2, Connelly made a violent attempt to injure on Canada forward Ryder Ritchie, resulting in a 5-minute major. Canada scored three times on the power play and went on to win the game.

Both on and off the ice, Connelly has been about Connelly with no regard for the people around him. Yes, on talent alone he is a top 10 pick in 2024, maybe even higher. Yes, he is a sublimely talented athlete. But no, he is not worth drafting even if he falls to Round 7. A young player who screws up once or twice probably deserves another chance to grow up. But a young player who burns bridges virtually everywhere he goes is probably better off avoided entirely.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2024 Draft Profile:

LW Matvei Gridin, Muskegon USHL
Matvei Gridin is a tale of two players. With the puck, he's a first round pick. He's an elite shooter -- one of the best in the 2024 draft class. He's got a snap-shot capable of beating goalies clean from outside the circles, he's got a quick and deceptive wrist shot. Gridin is a terrific skater, which he mixes with a nifty set of hands to become elusive as hell. He's a high-IQ playmaker, capable of manipulating defenders to create seams for incredibly creative vision plays.

Without the puck, Gridin is simply not good. He's lackadaisical to the point of near-invisibility. He floats on the back-check and cheats in the d-zone. He'll simply avoid puck battles which involve any foreseeable physicality. This jarring avoidance of physicality bleeds into his one, singular offensive flaw, which is a reticence to go to the net or the boards. Gridin prefers to wait for a teammate to get him the puck, and then he works his magic.

Matvei Gridin's ability is probably as high as a first-line winger in the NHL. But with him it's not simply a question of his physical abilities growing and maturing, but a more difficult question of can he flip the switch? All the tools are there to be a mid-to-late 1st round pick, but the complete package is probably that of a kid you swing for the fences on in Round 3.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2024 Draft Profile:

LW Mac Swanson, Fargo USHL
Despite a terrific scoring line of 26-51-77 (55 games) and a triumphant season, Mac Swanson has been largely ignored altogether in draft-writing circles for one, singular reason -- he's probably about 5'7-150. But he's also a kid who combines a very impressive tool kit and elite-level intangibles, lending to the belief he might be one of the steals of the late rounds of the 2024 NHL draft.

Swanson is a pass-first winger, and passing vision is clearly is standout trait. It's not just elite, I'd probably consider him a top 10 passing forward for the entire 2024 class. He's a rare player who uses deception in both looks and turns to open up passing lanes all over the ice surface. It's not unusual to see him turn his body away from his pass target in order to bait defenders then send a cross-ice, no-look masterpiece onto his teammate's tape.

If Swanson has another elite trait it's his hockey IQ, especially with the puck. He is a good stickhandler and, although his shot lacks some raw power, it's quick, accurate and deceptive. Swanson is outstanding at knowing which of his tools to utilize when. If he thinks he can beat a defender one-on-one, he'll go for it. If he's trapped in tight, he'll use some nifty fakes to pry open a passing lane. If his shot is his best option, he's not afraid to fire away. Swanson rarely, if ever, makes a poor decision with the puck.

Swanson is perhaps most likable for his courage. He's not afraid to battle in the corners against defenders who have 3 years and 70 pounds on him, and he's even capable of winning some of those battles with his hard work and cleverness. He's a high-motor player who is willing to go to the net, and he's never afraid to take a hit.

With all that is so endearing about this player, the Alaska native also has a few areas of improvement if he is to succeed in the NHL. He is a pretty good skater, but this needs to improve as small, skill forwards rarely make a dent in the NHL unless they feature high-end skating ability. There's a lot to like about his edges and agility, but he needs a more explosive acceleration and greater top speeds. Working on his core strength with higher-level trainers would likely improve both this and his shot power.

If Swanson hits on his potential, I think he has the upside of a high-scoring, top-6 winger in the NHL. His smarts and passing acuity are borderline special, and that's no small compliment. A lot of things must come together to ensure such success, but with a high-character player like this there's certainly reason for optimism. Considering he'll probably be available as late as Rounds 5-7, Mac Swanson absolutely must be featured on any list of potential 2024 draft-day steals.

 

[evnted]

2024 Draft Profile:

RW Melvin Fernstrom, Orebro J20, Nationell

While there's no denying that Fernstrom is a premier goal scoring prospect, he presents an intriguing case of people having drastically different reads on basically every other facet of his game, which is reflected in his gigantic range of placements stretching from the late 1st all the way down to the 3rd/4th round. As always, and as cliche as it may sound, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

Fernstrom's goal scoring upside is unarguably elite. His wrister is nothing short of lethal, and it allowed him to score at will in the J20. He also loves to mix in one-timers, particularly on the powerplay, which are just about as threatening. An underrated aspect of Fernstrom's long term scoring upside is the fact that he's always moving. His great vision and burning desire to put the puck in the back of the net keeps him constantly trying to open up lanes and find soft spots in coverage. His playmaking game isn't anything remarkable, but given how well he reads the ice, it's certainly at a more capable level than what most junior league scorers present. More intriuging, though, is Fernstrom's physical play. He's not a big hitter or anything, but he's extremely effective at initiating contact on the puck. Fernstrom readily fights through traffic and combines a great ability to leverage his modest 6'0" 170lb frame with some assertive stickhandling to shrug off pressure and offer a much stronger puck possession game than you would expect. And while only intermittently, he also uses this impressive stickwork defensively to strip defenders of pucks or simply take their sticks out of a lane.

One of the major concerns with Fernstrom, which is likely contributing to his volatile rankings, is consistency. Sometimes you get great 200ft involvement and a player who always feels dangerous on the puck, other times you get a low pace floater who is pushed to the perimeter and offers very little in the realm of defensive contributions. Fernstrom loves to have the puck on his stick, like, loves it. You will see some extended possessions, to say the least, as he fights to find the best possible scoring chance which, as you would expect, means he's blowing off better passing opportunities along the way. His skating is sufficient, and I'd even go so far as to say that I like his edges, but he lacks separation speed which is suboptimal at his size. Even as a scorer, there is a bit of doubt. His shot, for as great as it is, lacks some deception, and he himself will fairly commonly telegraph when he's about to shoot. On top of all of this, Fernstrom can be a bit temperamental at times. It is not uncommon to see him run his mouth to the officials, and at one point I even saw him deliberately avoid acknowledging his goalie after a loss.

As hinted at by his wide range of placements, Fernstrom is a perplexing player. On one hand, you have a winger with one of the best pure wristers in the class, a high level ability to survey the ice, impressive play through contact, and clear and effective defensive intent. On the other, you have a telegraphed, shot-first player who has a bit of a temper and can't be counted on to consistently offer much of anything else. I like the idea of the player, but I don't always like the viewings I have. To me, Fernstrom's scoring ability coupled with the template for a 200ft fringe-power game should take him out of that late 3rd or early 4th range, but I'm not completely sold on whether he's a slam dunk 2nd rounder. That said, and I'll apologize in advance for the fence sitting, I do understand arguments for him earlier or later.

 

[evnted]

2024 Draft Profile:

C Jett Luchanko, Guelph OHL

Luchanko is an easy player to gush over so I'm gonna have to keep myself in check on this one. The undersized pivot had quite an impressive campaign playing every situation imaginable for a not-so-great Guelph Storm team, and while his play might not always wow you, I'm here to convince you that not only is his late 1st/early 2nd round consolidated ranking too low, but that he should realistically be pushing to go in the teens.

The hallmarks of Luchanko's game are two of the greatest possible attributes you could ask for in a prospect, namely a high compete level and high hockey IQ. Luchanko has an incredible motor that he employs over all 200ft of the ice, including when he drives middle ice and competes in the dirty areas. Not only does he have elite speed, but he's elusive, quick to gain speed, and never seems to tire out on his shifts despite constantly moving. Luchanko pairs this high pace approach with a processor that is just as impressively fast. He is confident, poised, and cerebral on the puck. He has an excellent read of the ice that allows him to constantly spot teammates for chances, and he is particularly adept at cross zone passes through traffic.

Even further, he is a a clear threat off puck, too. Luchanko's expert defensive positioning and sublime reads on the breakout perfectly support his defenders. Likewise, his assertive approach to attacking puck carriers and translatable use of his frame to dig up and under defenders to separate them from the puck ensures the opposition always has to watch out for him. Naturally, Luchanko's long term ability to slot in down the middle will always be called into question if for no other reason than the fact that his height starts with a 5. But his compete, reads, skating, 200ft play, and probable long term ability to build up a stockier frame should ensure it's of no concern.

Coming up with legitimate downsides to Luchanko's game is tricky, but they do exist. First, and most obviously, he's not a dynamic talent. While a lot of his hard skill is very good, we're not talking ++ ability. For example, the effectiveness of his shot, while it is snippy and accurate by itself, is more dramatically benefited by his ability to drive scoring lanes with impeccable timing than it is from purely being high end. His production this year was also a bit powerplay reliant. I don't personally care about that, Guelph wasn't good and there wasn't any significant difference in his 5v5 and 5v4 play besides maybe having a bit more freedom to try some higher risk passes, but it is worth mentioning. His inconsistent defensive impacts (albeit not inconsistent effort) has been cited as a negative but again, I'm not sure I see it as so, at least not at this point. Early season, I would agree that his attention to 200ft play did not always produce the results you'd expect, but down the stretch and particularly throughout the U18s he was a near elite defensive presence. I think my one true complaint, beyond some generic add strength claim, is that he doesn't use his skating to the best of his ability. Luchanko can straight up fly when he wants to, but he's a bit more reserved about breaking it out, and I think consistently hitting that top speed to really push defenders on their heels is important.

It would be inconceivable for a player like this to outright bust. Undercut his upside and top out as an effective middle 6er? That's definitely possible, but considering the attributes he brings, full on busting is hard to imagine. Luchanko is a near perfect addition to a modern day NHL team and an easy candidate to predict going earlier than most armchair analysts predict. Considering that we're in a copycat league, teams looking for the next Cowan will most certainly take note of Luchanko.

 

[evnted]

2024 Draft Profile:

C Kamil Bednarik, USNTDP

Bednarik is a peculiar player insomuch as it's hard to really dislike anything about his game, but I don't know how much is that exciting either. In contrast to most prospects where projection is the greatest challenge, I actually think determining a proper valuation of this player is trickier. The average sized center is pretty consistently ranked as a late 2nd option, and while I can't imagine he's the type of player a scout would bang the table for, there's some modest NHL upside here.

Bednarik is the ultimate do-all center. He is poised on the puck in transition, displays an impressive handling ability, has solid vision and playmaking instincts, makes good decisions with the puck, drives the net and fights for scoring chances around the crease, contributes respectably in the defensive end, and finishes checks and tolerates contact on the puck well. The NTDP has shifted Eiserman pretty evenly between the Hagens and Bednarik lines, which means we've had the opportunity to see Bednarik play two very different roles this season. Thankfully, and to Bednarik's credit, I don't think his game has altered that drastically either way, which is a testament to his adaptability as a line driver. Perhaps the greatest compliment I can give, Bednarik is supremely confident on the puck. He loves having it on his stick, particularly in transition, and is more than willing to do what it takes to open up space whether it's through finesse plays and deking or more aggressive, contact-focused pressure.

The issue lies in the fact that, essentially, that's it. His skating is not a strength, his shot is fine, his playmaking game is good not great, his compete is solid but not high end, he's smart but not genius level, he's chippy but not grinder level, and he's shown next to no flashes of untapped skill. I don't think I've ever seen this player take over a game, although in fairness, nor have I ever seen him have that poor of a showing either; he's usually just there. His shift to shift impact will vary, and this is a trend I've observed basically all season. Sometimes he's extra engaged defensively, making strong decisions with the puck in transition, and generating multiple dangerous chances via shot or pass. Other times he's lackadaisical off puck, overly fancy with it, and basically a nonfactor everywhere else. We talk trajectories a lot, and this has been about as stagnant of a year as I've seen.

Projecting Bednarik to have at least some sort of tweener career does not feel particularly hard. He's smart, he competes, he has an ok baseline skill level, and most importantly there's really nothing so glaring that it likely holds him back to a significant degree. Determining how to value this projection is much more difficult. He's not skilled enough for the top of the lineup, nor is he a good enough forechecker or backchecker for the bottom of it. I don't see any avenue where his game is benefited by switching to wing (he's definitely a true center in terms of play style), and it feels unlikely that a team wouldn't be able to ice 4 better options down the middle. So I don't really know. Late 2nd/early 3rd does seem like a fair range because I feel too much further down the board starts to turn into the real long shots. Given how well-rounded his game is, and how little he'll likely have to do to scale it, perhaps this is one of those players who finds more success the higher the level he plays. Boston University will surely give him a solid opportunity to show that. But for now, he is the ultimate whelming pick should we take a look in the 3rd.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2024 Draft Profile:

LW/RW (left shot) Nikita Artamonov, Torpedo KHL
When discussing 1st round picks, even in the back half of the round, many fans are disappointed by the prospect of a middle-pair defender or middle-six forward. There is a prevailing notion that Round One is for superstars, and all good mid-line-up players are picked later in the draft. But occasionally you find a player who, despite a lack of any star-quality offensive tools, is just such an outstanding hockey player with elite-level intangibles that he's a virtual lock to make an NHL impact, even if he'll never be his team's main gate draw. Nikita Artamonov is one such player.

Breaking down Artamonov's skill set is not exactly breaking down Celebrini or Demidov, but he's still quite good across the board. Artamonov is a good-not-great-skater -- he's quick and mobile and accelerates well, but his top speeds won't wow anyone. He's a very good puck-handler. Artamonov's one slightly weak trait is his shooting, which is average at best. But this is more than offset by his one high-end physical tool -- this kid is an outstanding passer and playmaker. He always makes the perfect puck decisions, he is laser-like in his accuracy and has that sixth-sense-like awareness where he can anticipate the creation of lanes and the movements of both the opposition and his linemates.

In fact, I'd call Artamonov's hockey IQ borderline elite just about everywhere on the ice. He's a terrific defensive player with an advanced level of knowing where to be positioned and being able to anticipate the flow of the game. He's an elite forechecker with not just the heart and hustle to seemingly be on every loose puck first, but also the foresight to bait defenders into mistakes which he seems to already be pouncing on as soon as their made. The combination of Artamonov's IQ with his elite compete level make him just hell to play against. He's like a honey badger on every puck, loose or otherwise, and not afraid to play the physical game. Though he's average sized at 5'11-185 and a good-but-not-great skater, Artamonov's elite combination of smarts and hustle give the impression that he is everywhere on the ice at once.

Artamonov is the rare player who got a regular bottom 6 role with a KHL team as a 17 year old, and at the beginning of the year he did not look out of place. By mid-season, he was the best forechecker on his entire team and one of the better defensive forwards, and somehow still found a way to contribute offensively. His 16 assists in 54 games might not wow you like some CHL players' stats, but we need to keep in mind that for a draft-eligible in the KHL, this is absolutely elite-level production.

Artamonov's median ranking is probably the late 1st round, though there are some who have him both jarringly low (FCHockey #50) and high (Smaht Scouting #10). I'm going to say Nikita Artamonov is a great pick for any team in the 20s overall because his floor is probably as one of the best 3rd liners in the NHL, and that's no joke. Though there is no stratospheric ceiling, if Artamonov can continue to improve his skating explosiveness and fine-tune his offensive tools, this can be a terrific two-way support scorer for an NHL 2nd line, who will also earn a reputation as one of the better forecheckers and defensive wingers in the league.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I wanted to talk about the two recent center write-ups by @evnted on Jett Luchanko and Kamil Bednarik. First of all, I think it's important we all give the dude credit for how awesome his prospect write-ups have been. He's taken players I have barely watched like Melvin Fernstrom and described them so perfectly that you feel you've been watching them every game all year. He's been spectacular at highlighting both the obvious observations (speed, size, stats etc) and also the more-subtle in-game nuances, and then processing them to project the players at higher levels. We're truly lucky to have him working on our draft threads.

Now, back to Luchanko and Bednarik. I wanted to offer some alternative viewpoints simply because I think it creates a healthy debate which allows us all to know the prospects better.

Think of three years ago when @Guadana and I would argue about Edvinsson (spoiler: @Guadana was right and I was wrong) or Lambos (spoiler: @Guadana was right and I was wrong). The more we discussed the players, the more everyone got to know the players and got inspired to watch them and research them themselves. It's good for everyone in the end.

Or, the times @Guadana and I would agree on a prospect and then join together to defend a player like Slavkovsky (spoiler: we were both right and the analytics people were all wrong) or Yurov (spoiler: we were right and the people who couldn't be bothered to actually watch Russian hockey were wrong).

While @evnted was flawless in his actual descriptions of the actual players and there's really no arguing his observations, of course we are going to have disagreements when it comes to their projections because we're different people with different mindsets and criteria.

This is to say that I would not draft Jett Luchanko in the top 20. I like the kid a lot and would certainly draft him in the first round, but I'll probably have him in the 25-30 range. I feel Luchanko's head and heart give him the high floor of an NHL 3rd line center, but I'm also not 100% convinced he won't be converted to the wing at the higher levels. There's certainly some hope of a 2C ceiling because he's so smart and such a hard worker, but he won't get there on talent alone. That's a guy I look at at #28, but not at #18.

With Bednarik, I think I like him more than @evnted and I think he's one of the players we should be discussing with the Devils 3rd round pick (#74 overall). Of course there is no guarantee Bednarik will fall so far, but I also think he's a terrific two-way player who has a particular knack of forcing turnovers and transitioning to offense. I don't think you see many 6'0-185, extremely mobile centers who are so confident and accomplished on both sides of the puck who have the possibility of falling to Round 3, and this is precisely the type of player the Devils need in the system. Of course, there's a good chance some team really likes him and snatches him up as early as the first half of the 2nd round, in which case the only debate we'll be having is with @Guttersniped lashing out that NJ needs to stop trading away 2nd round picks.

 

[evnted]

I wanted to talk about the two recent center write-ups by @evnted on Jett Luchanko and Kamil Bednarik. First of all, I think it's important we all give the dude credit for how awesome his prospect write-ups have been. He's taken players I have barely watched like Melvin Fernstrom and described them so perfectly that you feel you've been watching them every game all year. He's been spectacular at highlighting both the obvious observations (speed, size, stats etc) and also the more-subtle in-game nuances, and then processing them to project the players at higher levels. We're truly lucky to have him working on our draft threads.

Now, back to Luchanko and Bednarik. I wanted to offer some alternative viewpoints simply because I think it creates a healthy debate which allows us all to know the prospects better.

Think of three years ago when @Guadana and I would argue about Edvinsson (spoiler: @Guadana was right and I was wrong) or Lambos (spoiler: @Guadana was right and I was wrong). The more we discussed the players, the more everyone got to know the players and got inspired to watch them and research them themselves. It's good for everyone in the end.

Or, the times @Guadana and I would agree on a prospect and then join together to defend a player like Slavkovsky (spoiler: we were both right and the analytics people were all wrong) or Yurov (spoiler: we were right and the people who couldn't be bothered to actually watch Russian hockey were wrong).

While @evnted was flawless in his actual descriptions of the actual players and there's really no arguing his observations, of course we are going to have disagreements when it comes to their projections because we're different people with different mindsets and criteria.

This is to say that I would not draft Jett Luchanko in the top 20. I like the kid a lot and would certainly draft him in the first round, but I'll probably have him in the 25-30 range. I feel Luchanko's head and heart give him the high floor of an NHL 3rd line center, but I'm also not 100% convinced he won't be converted to the wing at the higher levels. There's certainly some hope of a 2C ceiling because he's so smart and such a hard worker, but he won't get there on talent alone. That's a guy I look at at #28, but not at #18.

With Bednarik, I think I like him more than @evnted and I think he's one of the players we should be discussing with the Devils 3rd round pick (#74 overall). Of course there is no guarantee Bednarik will fall so far, but I also think he's a terrific two-way player who has a particular knack of forcing turnovers and transitioning to offense. I don't think you see many 6'0-185, extremely mobile centers who are so confident and accomplished on both sides of the puck who have the possibility of falling to Round 3, and this is precisely the type of player the Devils need in the system. Of course, there's a good chance some team really likes him and snatches him up as early as the first half of the 2nd round, in which case the only debate we'll be having is with @Guttersniped lashing out that NJ needs to stop trading away 2nd round picks.

no complaint about debates, and in fact theyre actually quite enjoyable when its between two people who actually watch the player (rather than having some rando on twitter spam me a kids "star potential" as an argument lol). dont think either of your perspectives on these players are off base at all, ill just explain myself a bit more here

in terms of bednarik, i dont really have a strong enough opinion to oppose someone wanting to target him earlier/more aggressively than i do. if hes the pick for us in the 3rd, ill have pretty much nothing negative to say about it because despite the vanilla description, i do still have him ranked a bit higher than our pick. for me, when it comes to that 2nd round range, i like to place extra emphasis on season progression, top end compete+iq players, or 1 or 2 really elite tools. my read on the player is that, while he still offers a lot, he doesnt quite fit under one of those umbrellas. so again ill have no issue if we pick him, it just seems likely he wouldnt be my top choice on the floor

in terms of luchanko, i do think that late 1st/early 2nd round range undersells him a bit, and id say theres probably two main reasons for it. first, i think historically i havent appreciated this archetype of player enough and have underranked kids who have gone on to hit kinda well (poitras, johnston, mcmichael, etc.). obviously, thats not to say all those players are the same, theyre not. rather, they all fit the mold of really good engines for their respective teams who dont offer anything too impressive in terms of hard skill, but are consistent and effective all situations players. i almost think of them as lifeblood picks, the kids who their junior teams just seem to depend on, and it feels like that could be an indicator of long term success. i dont wanna look back at luchanko and say something like wow i knew i really liked the player and regret ranking a couple skill gambles ahead of him

the second reason is, outside of lotto-ish range, i still dont think im a huge fan of this class. many players who are projectable but not exciting, and some of the top end upside picks have gigantic question marks attached to them (granted, this is still true for lotto range as well, but the baseline talent level is of course much higher). so while luchanko might not be a top 20 type pick for me every year, i dont mind the placement this year. i buy into the safety of the projection, and the long term outlook is more encouraging to me than someone like basha or eriksson or boisvert. its the same reason i have a player like parascak ranked in the early 20s. i dont think youre wrong at all for fearing his skating concerns, but for me personally, thats it, thats all i have to complain about with the player, which i think should still put him above most other options in this range (plus, he seems to thrive off being the long shot/being doubted anyway. that jump from his loaded d-1 csshl season to where hes at now in the whl is crazy, i dont wanna bet against that progression either)

so thats essentially where i stand. again, no major disagreement with your side, but it felt appropriate to expand my thoughts a bit. i also wish we had a 2nd rounder, those debates can get really good lol

 

[Brodeur]

2024 Draft Profile:

LW Matvei Gridin, Muskegon USHL
Matvei Gridin is a tale of two players. With the puck, he's a first round pick. He's an elite shooter -- one of the best in the 2024 draft class. He's got a snap-shot capable of beating goalies clean from outside the circles, he's got a quick and deceptive wrist shot. Gridin is a terrific skater, which he mixes with a nifty set of hands to become elusive as hell. He's a high-IQ playmaker, capable of manipulating defenders to create seams for incredibly creative vision plays.

Without the puck, Gridin is simply not good. He's lackadaisical to the point of near-invisibility. He floats on the back-check and cheats in the d-zone. He'll simply avoid puck battles which involve any foreseeable physicality. This jarring avoidance of physicality bleeds into his one, singular offensive flaw, which is a reticence to go to the net or the boards. Gridin prefers to wait for a teammate to get him the puck, and then he works his magic.

Matvei Gridin's ability is probably as high as a first-line winger in the NHL. But with him it's not simply a question of his physical abilities growing and maturing, but a more difficult question of can he flip the switch? All the tools are there to be a mid-to-late 1st round pick, but the complete package is probably that of a kid you swing for the fences on in Round 3.

Today I learned that Gridin is headed to Michigan for college, so that irrationally boosted him for me. An article I subsequently read mentioned that he came over from Russia last season and was still getting adjusted with English. That might be an interesting question to ask whether his game away from the puck could improve once he's more easily able to communicate with teammates/coaches?

He probably won't be a consideration for our pick, but maybe a team picking in the 20's takes a home run swing?

 

[evnted]

2024 Draft Profile:

LW/C Lucas Van Vliet, USNTDP

Van Vliet (VV, no not that one) is another one of those kids who you'll look at his middling stats, poor deployment, and low or even absent rankings and wonder what's worth highlighting about him. But, I believe this is the exact type of player you take a swing on late in the draft.

VV abounds with tools that he simply does not know how to apply consistently enough. He has decent size (6'2" 175lb), quick burst skating even if he isn't a blazer, a lethal shot, high end handling ability that shows no signs of weakness at speed or in small areas, smart decision making with the puck, good anticipation and positional skills, and complete confidence while carrying the puck be it in transition or while attacking the net for a scoring chance. If Kreider weren't a freak athlete, this is pretty much what I'd expect him to look like. VV is great at driving wide and cutting to the middle because he is quick and hard to catch as well as strong on the puck and difficult to disrupt. His catch and release is both fast and accurate, and when you mix in solid positional instincts and reads, he can find himself in some really dangerous scoring opportunities. VV can have shifts that are so impressive, you genuinely scratch your head and wonder where the offense is and why he gets the deployment he does.

All of those positives, though, only appear intermittently. If you were to watch a random NTDP game, it is totally within reason that you might not see any of what I just described. VV can completely check out of plays at times, and sometimes in critical moments. He can be soft in puck battles to the point of looking like he's deliberately giving up the lane to his opponent. There are way too many shifts where he is perfectly content to let play come to him and simply coast around in the meantime. His motor, when he applies himself, is quite good, but shift to shift there's no way of predicting when he will. He is already an immensely raw talent and he really doesn't do anything to help himself out when he's not actively carrying the puck. So, I wouldn't say it's particularly suprising that he never really gained the trust of his coaching staff to get better minutes.

Ultimately, this is an incredibly raw prospect who we can really only discuss in terms of flashes and what ifs. The theoretical upside is quite high, and the overall toolkit can rival that of many inevitable 1st round selections. It almost feels like he's developmentally a year behind the rest of the class given how little he's played and how inconsistently he was able to show himself off. The plan seems to be that he'll spend a full season in the USHL with Dubuque next year, which I believe is the correct play. He needs every opportunity he can to get minutes, puck touches, and consistent top of the lineup opportunity, and that certainly wouldn't happen if he tried the jump to college already. It is totally possible VV's outlook withers away into nothing because, despite having almost every tool you could ask for, his game as a whole is simply not there. Still, this is a player I would target with one of our later picks because it is very hard to find this level of raw talent that late in the draft, and you simply never know if a year of extended deployment will allow him to tie everything together.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Today I learned that Gridin is headed to Michigan for college, so that irrationally boosted him for me. An article I subsequently read mentioned that he came over from Russia last season and was still getting adjusted with English. That might be an interesting question to ask whether his game away from the puck could improve once he's more easily able to communicate with teammates/coaches?

He probably won't be a consideration for our pick, but maybe a team picking in the 20's takes a home run swing?

I'm personally not a big fan of the boom-or-bust guys in Round 1, unless the potential boom is stratospheric, as in the case of a Brad Lambert or Cole Eiserman. Which is to say I wouldn't be able to draft Gridin with a high effort potential 2nd line guy on the board like Ryder Ritchie or Nikita Artamonov. It's just so hard to build or maintain a competitive NHL roster if your 1st round picks don't become regulars or, at the very least, viable trade chips.

This is not to say that some team won't take a chance on Gridin in the 25-32 overall range. But despite all of his obvious talent, I wouldn't consider him until much later because the effort and 200-foot play just haven't been there to a reasonable degree.

 

[Guadana]

Draft Capsule:

C Macklin Celebrini, Boston University NCAA
Make no mistake, Macklin Celebrini is the #1 player in the 2024 draft class.

mmm... time for hot takes?)

 

[StevenToddIves]

2024 Draft Profile:

LW/C Yegor Surin, Loko Yaroslavl MHL
It's no accident that power forwards are becoming increasingly difficult to find at the draft and, as such, increasingly valuable in the NHL. The benefit of having a player who can soften the defense with physicality, create havoc in the crease, win greasy puck battles and protect top-6 skill players in undeniable. The 2024 draft is actually strong in this regard, with three players who can excel at the power forward game with enough skill that they could all go in the top 20 picks -- Cayden Lindstrom, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Igor Chernyshov. Well, I'm here to say that Yegor Surin belongs in this same conversation.

Currently, Surin's skill level is probably just below those three more-heralded players, but outside of Lindstrom, he's not so far behind as one might think. He's good to very good across the board in his entire offensive repertoire. The 6'1-190 Russian is a good but not great skater. He can definitely get some nice speed once he gets going, but he'll need to work a bit on his explosiveness. As he's not a quick-twitch, change-of-direction guy, he mostly relies on strength to keep defenders off him, and he excels at turning his body in puck-protection to create extra time and space. His hands are also good but not great, but he plays with confidence both to his benefit and detriment. Surin plays a bull-in-a-china-shop style where sometimes instead of just chipping a puck deep he will attempt to literally skate through multiple defenders.

Surin's shot is very good but he needs to take it more. Even with a deadly one-timer, nice velocity and an excellent release, he just wants to take every puck to the net. Mostly, this is effective. He's actually a very good passer in space, and needs to trust that ability as much as he trusts his power game. It's rare that I speak of a player and say it could benefit him by playing a bit more on the perimeter, but that's Surin in a nutshell for you -- bull in a china shop. Surin's excellent numbers in the MHL (22-30-52 in 42 games) was the best scoring rate on his entire team and that's a result of his being one of the more complete offensive forwards in the league, even if he is not particularly offensively dynamic.

If all of this sounds like a good 2nd round pick (and it does), I'm going to say that I've left out the very best reasons to be very (very, very) excited about the potential of Yegor Surin. First off, he's one of the youngest players in the 2024 draft class with an August '06 birthdate and he might be still growing. Surin was listed at 5'10-175 at the outset of the season and 6'1-190 at the end, and the eye test seems to back it. Secondly, he's actually a very good 200-foot player who is versatile positionally. One of the very best forecheckers for the 2024 draft, Surin is also a positionally smart, intense defender who never quits on a puck. He's excelled both on the Loko Yaroslavl PK and PP units, and I've seen him deployed all three forward positions. Yes, Surin is an effective center. I'd say right now he's a better winger than pivot, but the potential is certainly there and again, this is a young player who is quite smart and still just 17.

Most notably is that Surin's mix of physicality and compete level are absolutely the highest level of elite. Surin might be the most proactively physical skill forward for the entire 2024 draft class. He hits like a battering ram, stands up for his teammates, treats every puck battle like his very life depended on it. It is not unusual to see MHL defensemen completely unravel after taking a pounding or two from Surin -- rushing their puck movement and decision-making to the point of mistake-prone. The amount of space Surin creates for his MHL linemates is nothing short of remarkable. One of my favorite MHL moments all season was when Surin dropped the gloves with Igor Chernyshov despite being younger and smaller, and held his own in a ferocious tilt. Simply put, Yegor Surin is a player you want on your team.

Surin's median ranking is probably in the mid-2nd round range, but I'm going to go ahead and let it be known I'll have him ranked in the 1st. He's a guy you're drafting as a versatile forward for your middle six, but his relative youth and recent growth spurt give credence to the hope that there will be a steep upward trajectory for his skills across the board. And as he excelled in the seldomly-scouted MHL, there is a possibility Surin could fall to late 2nd or even early 3rd rounds. If this were the case, Yegor Surin certainly has the potential to be the steal of the 2024 draft.