Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread
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evnted
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- Apr 14, 2016
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mbn/helenius are quality prospects and not that far behind the defenders for me, but i think that would be overthinking things, particularly for the likes of dickinson and buium who look like fairly easy top 4 candidates with greater upside than the forwards. imo the blue line is more dramatically bolstered by adding one of the defenders than the top 9 would be by adding one of the forwards (and thats certainly not to say we dont need those types of players up front)
i dont think 10OA for mbn is above consensus so much as just at the top end of it, personally. 10-15 feels like a pretty reoccurring range for him
devilsfan950003
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- Jul 3, 2023
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BPA is not always what we think it is, which is something I've been saying for years. An organization also needs a philosophy and a team-building vision.
This is to say if, let's say, your team is drafting at 20 and a player you have ranked #4 is still on the board. In this case, there's a clear BPA and of course you take him. But conversely, if your team is drafting at 20 and the top players on your board are ranked 13, 14, and 15? Is it really so important to draft #13 if the player at #14 fills a greater organizational need?
We get caught up too much in numerical evaluations and rankings, I feel. When I'm ranking prospects, I make decisions at every single spot. Even in a draft where there is a clear #1 -- like this year with Celebrini -- the arguments can start at #2. Right now I have Demidov, but is he really that far above #3 Lindstrom that it's worth a possible 4 or 5 year wait for Demidov to arrive in North America? I'm not saying I know the answer, just that it's a question worth asking.
At #10, there will not be a clear-cut "BPA" this year, I can pretty much guarantee it. Berkly Catton is a tremendous scoring prospect, but does a top 6 high-scoring winger lacking elite size or any interior game to speak of answer any long or short term Devils needs? I'd rather draft a more well-rounded and faster power winger with less pure scoring upside like Brantsegg-Nygard or Chernyshov, to be honest.
The same goes for what you said about Helenius. If he is available at #10 and our highest ranked prospect is (hypothetically) a RD or RW, I think I'd rather draft Helenius, who fills an immediate an long-term need. The difference in the ranking will be minute anyway, like #7 to #8 or whatever.
I also see Calgary drafting Iginla. The kid is a heck of a player and would really galvanize the Calgary fanbase. It's a win-win for them.
I've somehow gotten better looking in the past 34 years, but will admit I'm the anomaly.
I can't say it enough -- Brantsegg-Nygard is awesome.
If the kid were from Ontario or or Boston or Stockholm instead of Norway, I feel he'd be in every top 12 list. Is he a better prospect right now than Conor Geekie (#11 2022)? I'd say yes. Is he a better prospect right now than Tyler Boucher and Cole Dillinger (#10 & #11 2021)? Without a doubt. Is he a better prospect right now than Alexander Holtz (#7 2020)? I'd say yes.
I have no clue how people have a kid who is big, fast, smart, plays physical and smart, shoots the puck like a rocket launcher and features high offensive skill as low as the 20s. It's silly. Brantsegg-Nygard is also in the argument for the best defensive winger in the entire 2024 class. He's even played some center.
Sometimes we have to look at the consensus and factor in the perennial biases. Brantsegg-Nygard is absolutely worth a pick in the top 10-12.
The Draft Simulator has updated for the 2024 draft. Like usual it isn't that great until they add Mckenzie draft rankings. Seems like they want your email in order to use it.
draft simulator
Lindstrom, Sikora, Crosby, Satan. I don't think anyone could top this draft.
draft simulator
Lindstrom, Sikora, Crosby, Satan. I don't think anyone could top this draft.
U18s kick off in a couple days in Finland. Time difference probably won't be conducive to watching live but NHL Network will have the Team USA games (and I assume a handful of others).
Spent a couple minutes trying to figure out if Brandsegg-Nygard was playing for Norway but then realized he's a late 2005, so he's not eligible for the U18s.
- April 25: Slovakia vs. USA, 7 a.m. ET
- April 27: USA vs. Norway, 10:30 a.m. ET
- April 28: Latvia vs. USA, 11 a.m. ET
- April 30: USA vs. Finland, 11 a.m. ET
- May 2: Quarterfinals TBD
- May 4: Semifinals TBD
- May 5: Medal Games TBD
Spent a couple minutes trying to figure out if Brandsegg-Nygard was playing for Norway but then realized he's a late 2005, so he's not eligible for the U18s.
evnted
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- Apr 14, 2016
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helenius will also be there for FIN. seems like he might play both this and the worlds
while we cant say for certain, hage not being selected could be related to him going the ushl -> ncaa route. sometimes hockey canada will pout about that
Guadana
Registered User
Old Nabokov compared new Nabokov with Saros. Liked his mobility and leg work.
New Nabokov is little bit bigger(184 sm and 179 sm).
21 yo goalie is doing things in KHL playoff with 94.1% SV% in 22 games. He has 93% in 43 regular season games.
U21 yo goalie stats in KHL. Nice company.
New Nabokov is little bit bigger(184 sm and 179 sm).
21 yo goalie is doing things in KHL playoff with 94.1% SV% in 22 games. He has 93% in 43 regular season games.
U21 yo goalie stats in KHL. Nice company.
I wanted to talk a bit about Anton Silayev because -- though opinions on him tend to sharply diverge -- I feel he is a very possible pick for the Devils at #10 overall.
Let's put all the personal opinions aside a moment and think about what GM Tom Fitzgerald has done to transform the New Jersey blueline in his tenure. He's tried to increase both the size and the speed of the blueline as a whole. With Silayev, the two factors which garner most of his attention are that he is 6'7 and probably the best 6'7 or taller skater the NHL draft has ever seen. The kid is not a good skater for his size -- he's simply a beautiful skater with exceptional skating mechanics. His edges are terrific, his balance is outstanding. The only flaw I can see is that his acceleration needs work, but once he improves his first step or two he's going to be an absolute freak with his size/skating combination.
Then, we factor in that LD is probably the Devils #2 need for the 2024 draft after only C, and this draft is much deeper at LD than C. Quite simply, there might not be a C worth drafting at #10 overall, and if (as many expect) Dickinson and Buium are also gone, Silayev may well be the highest consensus-rated LD on the board when the Devils step to the podium. So, the possibility is real.
The problem with Silayev is, though by all accounts he's had a pretty good year as about the youngest regular-minutes defenseman in the KHL, is there are several warts in his game which need work.
Though he is 6'7, Silayev doesn't really use his frame proactively. What I mean by this is though, of course he wins many puck battles due to his advantageous reach, skating and strength, he is not a player who looks to hit or intimidate. Without the puck he is still a plus player of course -- it's really tough to get passes through him or beat him one on one for the obvious reasons. He takes up a lot of ice, and even when his positioning is off, his advanced speed allows him to cover ground ridiculously quickly.
But again, his positioning and reads and gaps all need work. While not awful, this is not a player we would even be considering as a first-round pick were it not for his size/skating combo. I mean, Silayev is good defensively and the upside is obvious, but he's not a shut down guy right now and he has a long way to go to get there.
Offensively, I'd say similar things. He's an above-average puck-handler with an above-average shot and above-average passing, but none of these traits are what we would normally consider first-round caliber. He's also a bit mistake prone, although it's tough to fault a teenager playing a very difficult position in the second-hardest league in the world. Again, you don't watch Silayev for what he is now but rather for what you project he is capable of one day becoming.
My personal caveats with Silayev are due to the fact that I do not consider him a high-IQ or high-compete player. Again, I'd mark him above average in both. Again, a solid player who it's hard not to like, but are all these traits the traits of a first round pick?
With any player of immense size, I ask myself where would they be drafted if they were 6'1? With Anton Silayev, I still think he would be a good player and the skating is undeniably outstanding, so I'd guess he'd be about a 3rd-5th rounder. But the fact remains the only reason you'd be taking him in the first round (much less the top 10) is because of the 6'7 (combined with the skating, of course).
Those comparing Silayev to Victor Hedman are being very unfair to the kid. He's never going to be a 70+ point guy, though I'd say 40+ is a solid expectation. I'd say the best comparable for him is already in a NJ sweater, because I see many similarities with Kevin Bahl. I do think Silayev has more upside than Bahl because he's a better skater, better shooter and has superior offensive instincts, especially off the rush.
My final answer is -- yes, I would draft Anton Silayev. But probably not as early as #10 overall. It's not that I don't like him, because I do. It's just the certainty of there being players I will like more available to grab with this crucially important pick.
But I will temper this by saying if -- hypothetically -- the Devils did draft Silayev? It would by no means be a bad pick, maybe just not the best one.
Let's put all the personal opinions aside a moment and think about what GM Tom Fitzgerald has done to transform the New Jersey blueline in his tenure. He's tried to increase both the size and the speed of the blueline as a whole. With Silayev, the two factors which garner most of his attention are that he is 6'7 and probably the best 6'7 or taller skater the NHL draft has ever seen. The kid is not a good skater for his size -- he's simply a beautiful skater with exceptional skating mechanics. His edges are terrific, his balance is outstanding. The only flaw I can see is that his acceleration needs work, but once he improves his first step or two he's going to be an absolute freak with his size/skating combination.
Then, we factor in that LD is probably the Devils #2 need for the 2024 draft after only C, and this draft is much deeper at LD than C. Quite simply, there might not be a C worth drafting at #10 overall, and if (as many expect) Dickinson and Buium are also gone, Silayev may well be the highest consensus-rated LD on the board when the Devils step to the podium. So, the possibility is real.
The problem with Silayev is, though by all accounts he's had a pretty good year as about the youngest regular-minutes defenseman in the KHL, is there are several warts in his game which need work.
Though he is 6'7, Silayev doesn't really use his frame proactively. What I mean by this is though, of course he wins many puck battles due to his advantageous reach, skating and strength, he is not a player who looks to hit or intimidate. Without the puck he is still a plus player of course -- it's really tough to get passes through him or beat him one on one for the obvious reasons. He takes up a lot of ice, and even when his positioning is off, his advanced speed allows him to cover ground ridiculously quickly.
But again, his positioning and reads and gaps all need work. While not awful, this is not a player we would even be considering as a first-round pick were it not for his size/skating combo. I mean, Silayev is good defensively and the upside is obvious, but he's not a shut down guy right now and he has a long way to go to get there.
Offensively, I'd say similar things. He's an above-average puck-handler with an above-average shot and above-average passing, but none of these traits are what we would normally consider first-round caliber. He's also a bit mistake prone, although it's tough to fault a teenager playing a very difficult position in the second-hardest league in the world. Again, you don't watch Silayev for what he is now but rather for what you project he is capable of one day becoming.
My personal caveats with Silayev are due to the fact that I do not consider him a high-IQ or high-compete player. Again, I'd mark him above average in both. Again, a solid player who it's hard not to like, but are all these traits the traits of a first round pick?
With any player of immense size, I ask myself where would they be drafted if they were 6'1? With Anton Silayev, I still think he would be a good player and the skating is undeniably outstanding, so I'd guess he'd be about a 3rd-5th rounder. But the fact remains the only reason you'd be taking him in the first round (much less the top 10) is because of the 6'7 (combined with the skating, of course).
Those comparing Silayev to Victor Hedman are being very unfair to the kid. He's never going to be a 70+ point guy, though I'd say 40+ is a solid expectation. I'd say the best comparable for him is already in a NJ sweater, because I see many similarities with Kevin Bahl. I do think Silayev has more upside than Bahl because he's a better skater, better shooter and has superior offensive instincts, especially off the rush.
My final answer is -- yes, I would draft Anton Silayev. But probably not as early as #10 overall. It's not that I don't like him, because I do. It's just the certainty of there being players I will like more available to grab with this crucially important pick.
But I will temper this by saying if -- hypothetically -- the Devils did draft Silayev? It would by no means be a bad pick, maybe just not the best one.
Guadana
Registered User
Quite good breakdown I agree with.
I have few remarks.
He is better in gaps than you said if you are talking about 17 yo, you should breakdown him as 17 yo, not as regular average khler. He is doing everything good without the puck on mhl level, he was very good on khl playoff in this aspects. At least in games I watched.
His game with the puck worries me more than you said - on both levels. His decision making with the puck under pressure.
He is much better skater, I think it gives him huge benefit in defensive work. But Graves(NJD verison) is better in O zone. Silayev is very straight line skater with the puck. Steve's compare him with Bahl, so I would say its a very good comparison if Bahl would be much better skater and less physical. Again 17yo playing against tough competition.
So I have worries about him, about his potential on nhl level. I think he will become good defensive defenseman but he needs to work on his escaping. Bahl was bad against top 6 good players - he was good against bottom, but when the game is starting to heat and talented players are starting to pressure Bahl, he immediately starting to lose his zone, can't move fastr and losing position because of lack of mobility. Silayev has better mobility but potentially he can have problems with pressure when he will need to escape with the puck - nhl game is very fast.
I think his potential to be second pair defenseman us very good, his potential to be defensive defenseman for a lot of heavy minutes exist, but he needs to work on his reads if the game.
So I would prefer other players. Nygard is playing center. Its just fact, he just smdiesnt take faceoffs often. His ceiling is great because if his iq and fast decision making. He skates well. Helenius is a good skater, smaller but still good interior forward, very smart, he just need to work on his accuracy.
I understand that drafting Chernyshov is too early and with so many RWs pipeline we really need to work on other sides of the roster, more over centers and defensemen are making more impact, gap between Nygard, Helenius and Chernyshov isn't big (but if we are talking about Iginla vs Chernyshov vs Eiserman - it should be Chernyshov - because of better skating, speed, physical, defensive game, may be he usnt best shooter out if three, but he is as good or better puck handler, as good in passing and better in physical and defensive aspects).
So we need to pick center or defenseman. If its Silayev - I would prefer Helenius or Nygard. If its Buium or Dickinson- I would prefer D. Even if I like Helenius and Nygard little bit more.
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Man would it be great if Dickinson or Buium fell to #10, but -- although it's not impossible -- I just really feel they will both be gone by #10.
Silayev is a guy who I can see falling if he gets past Arizona -- who has targeted players of his pedigree -- at #6. At 7-9, Ottawa, Seattle and Calgary have all traditionally shown reluctance to draft a Russian in the early rounds, and the possibility of Calgary taking Tij Iginla is huge.
If Silayev gets past #6, there is a realistic possibility of his falling into the teens. At #11, Buffalo will not take a LD no matter who it is.
Again, I would be thrilled with a pick of Nygard-Brantsegg or Helenius. Both fill team needs, both outstanding players to add to the core of a future contender.
We know of course that by #10 these players will be gone -- Celebrini, Lindsrom, Demidov, Levshunov. The question is: what other 5 players go in the top 9?
My guess is, unfortunately, Dickinson and Buium will be two of those five. The other likely candidates for the other three are Silayev, Parekh, Takemchuk, Catton, Eiserman, Iginla, Connolly and Helenius. I do not see another team between 7-9 taking Nygard-Brantsegg or Chernyshov, even though in my opinion they deserve similar consideration.
It's going to be interesting, that's for certain.
Why you gotta destroy my Lindstrom dreams huh?!
Guadana
Registered User
I dont see Buium and Dickinson available. I still want some hope. May be Yakemchuk is attractive for Ottawa, may be Silayev is attractive for Arizona, may be Seattle wants to draft Parekh to build playmaking blue line with him. May be Calgary wants (or Montreal) to draft Iginla.
But I dont think they will left Buium and Dickinson on the table. Obvious good defensive players.
I dont want Nygard and Helenius to be drafted before us. I want Fitz to have him as an options on the table. It really better to see them being drafted by us over Parekh or, God please no, Eiserman.
And yeah, it looks like Connely situation is tempered down. So he has huge chance to be drafted high as 9-15 pick. Overall really strong top -12 - top -14 - top -16. One turn aroung decision can shake a lot. I had strong top-8, but now Im thinking there are a lot of different variations.
Andre Palot
Registered User
Player comparables, in my opinion should be taken with the largest grain of salt available.
My favorite was Larsson getting both Lindstrom and Sami Salo during his draft year.
Or the smoothbrains that tried comparing Tedenby to MSL
My favorite was Larsson getting both Lindstrom and Sami Salo during his draft year.
Or the smoothbrains that tried comparing Tedenby to MSL
PizzaAndPucks
New Jersey Angels diehard
- Nov 29, 2018
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Player comparables are fine. It's when they compare them to Hall of Fame players or elite talent that you can't get too carried away and think they will have the same career/impact as that player.
As if any prospect could ever be compared to Ben Lovejoy.
CalamityX23
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- May 2, 2023
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Andre Palot
Registered User
If we get Celebrini the main board is gonna riot and I'm gonna love every second of their delicious, delicious tears.
6'4 power forwards with high end skating, skill and physicality don't grow on trees. I have Lindstrom going #2 overall to Chicago, if draft order stays as is. But the teams drafting 3/4 are currently Anaheim and Columbus, both of whom would also likely take Lindstrom if he fell to them. No way this kid gets out of the top 5.
in my dream Eiserman, Catton, and Connolly are drafted early and everyone else goes Defense.
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