njdevils1982
Hell Toupée!!!
Are we locked in at that 10 spot?
no. we're gonna win the lottery and pick 1st.
Are we locked in at that 10 spot?
Ping pong ball season.no. we're gonna win the lottery and pick 1st.
Devils had a 3.6% chance to win the Larsson lottery which kicked off a decade of draft dominance. And what a coincidence, that's right in between our chances at the first and second pick this year.Going into the lottery we're slotted 10th. Assuming Tankathon did its math correctly:
1st overall: 3.5%
2nd overall: 3.7%
3rd overall: 0.1%
10th overall: 73.3%
11th overall: 18.4%
12th overall: 0.9%
I think he has top-6 potential - he is driving the net, playing in the slot, protect the puck well, winning battles, making fast and smart plays. Overall from what I saw in the play off games he is making what you are expecting from your scoring center.Apologies if you've mentioned him before on the thread, @Guadana, but what are your thoughts on Nygaard? Feels like he'd be the compliment we're looking for next to Bratt/Jack but I could be wrong lol
I think Helenius is something between Suzuki and Benson.Although I laughed out loud reading your "PTSD" comment, I'm going to go on record saying Helenius is a better prospect than Kotkaniemi at the same age.
You know as well as anyone how highly I factor in hockey IQ and compete level into my player evaluations. Helenius is elite to me in both categories, while Kotkaniemi was far, far from it. Right now, I'd say Helenius' upside is in the Nick Suzuki ballpark while Kotkaniemi's upside is probably leveling off as "poor man's Haula".
Though I haven't had the fortune or time to watch as much hockey this year as in past draft years, I've been extremely impressed by Helenius in all 10-12 games I've seen of him. The kid is really one heck of a hockey player. He might not be my top overall choice, but I'd be absolutely thrilled to get Helenius in NJ.
I think something is off there, the Devils can’t get 3rd overall as there are only 2 lottery picks.Going into the lottery we're slotted 10th. Assuming Tankathon did its math correctly:
1st overall: 3.5%
2nd overall: 3.7%
3rd overall: 0.1%
10th overall: 73.3%
11th overall: 18.4%
12th overall: 0.9%
I think something is off there, the Devils can’t get 3rd overall as there are only 2 lottery picks.
So if the Devils win 1 of the 2 lotteries to move up, how do 2 teams end up in front of them?
Interesting. I hadn’t thought about that weird scenario but it checks out.It would have to be a very particular scenario. If I understand it correctly, it would be the #12 team winning the first drawing and being limited to only going up to #2. Then if we won the second drawing, we'd then be awarded #3.
(25/1000) (2.5% chance of Philadelphia winning first drawing) * (35/975) (chance of us winning the second drawing) = 0.089%
The Red Wings have 0.5% odds (5 of the 1000 combinations). If they won the first or second drawing, they'd be restricted to moving up to #5. The math could get a little messy since you'd have to account for each possible winner of the first draw, but let's just say Anaheim (13.5%, 135 of the 1000 combinations) won the first draw. Detroit would have a .57% shot (5 out of the remaining 865 non-Anaheim combinations) at the second drawing. So combined they would have a 1.07% chance at picking #5 in that particular scenario.
72.4% chance that the Hawks pick 3rd or 4th, gonna make it even more infuriating when they pick 1st or 2nd.I think something is off there, the Devils can’t get 3rd overall as there are only 2 lottery picks.
So if the Devils win 1 of the 2 lotteries to move up, how do 2 teams end up in front of them?
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I think the Red Wings may be the best example of something being off.
I think in many cases, you can tell. The best evaluators know the prospects inside and out and describe the players with familiarity, like you would describe a player like Nico Hischier who you have watched countless times. The weaker evaluators play a more cursory role and simply state a player's stats and maybe a notable attribute or two.I wish all evaluators would list their number of viewings ... regardless of how they actually evaluate, I think it would be nice to know how many times a prospect was viewed, when and if live or not.
Here is my happiness chart for realistic players who could fall to the Devils and be seriously considered at #10 overall:I think Helenius is something between Suzuki and Benson.
10-12 games is enough. I watched less.
He isnt my top choice too in most situations, but I will like him as a pick. Because I have enoug players I would prefer Helenius over them. And I dont think that gap between Nygard, Chernyshov, Helenius and Iginla is really big. Someone will develop their weak side, someone will not, but we cant know who will do it and who will not. Mostly it is about IQ and Nygard and Helenius have better IQ on my taste.
That was the 2011 lottery where the Devils moved from 8th to 4th. IIRC Larsson was wearing 36 in rookie camp or something and we were all convinced Lou gave it to him on purpose.
Thoughts on Beckett Sennecke? He has been on the rise since the beginning of the year, and Corey Pronman ranked him 12th in his latest rankings. I don't know anything else about him.Here is my happiness chart for realistic players who could fall to the Devils and be seriously considered at #10 overall:
Ecstatic and Overjoyed:
LD Buium
LD Dickinson
LD Silayev
C Helenius
W Brantsegg-Nygard
W Chernyshov
Happy:
W Iginla
C Hage
Meh:
W Catton
Unhappy:
RD Yakemchuk
RD Parekh
RD Jiricek
W Eiserman
W Greentree
Shoot Me In The Head:
W Connolly
There are several posts earlier in this thread where @Guadana (and me, as well) laud the attributes of Brantsegg-Nygard. I think it's safe to say we both love the guy. The question is if he will be the best player for the Devils at #10, and of course that depends on who is available.
As for Brantsegg-Nygard, the short version is he is a big and extremely smart power forward who skates very well, not just for his size -- he's a terrific skater. He is maybe the best two-way winger in the draft, and the combination of that fact and his high IQ leads @Guadana to believe he might have an NHL future at center, as well as the wing.
His offensive upside is also quite high. While he is not exactly a puck magician or elite passer, he is exceptional at using his big frame to protect the puck in tight areas and he is very smart in all his puck decisions. Moreover, Brantsegg-Nygard features a tremendous shot and willingness to bring the puck to the net which suggests he might have 40-goal upside at his ultimate ceiling.
Just an outstanding prospect, and there's no reason not to love the kid.
I'm ignoring this post by @My3Sons because I'm lazy.
I think he has top-6 potential - he is driving the net, playing in the slot, protect the puck well, winning battles, making fast and smart plays. Overall from what I saw in the play off games he is making what you are expecting from your scoring center.
He is my number one option if Buium and Dickinson will not be available. I like him more than Catton(Catton should have more point producing potential, but he is playing more perimeter game), more than Iginla(Iginla is better playmaker with the puck, but thats all. Nygard is bigger, faster, better positional player, better defensive player).
As a complimentary player for Jack or Bratt he is perfect, because he is very good in creating the open space, he is making fast short passes with high accuracy. Thats exactly what Jack and Bratt need to play with. And Nygard is very good in board battles and puck protection. So yeah, would be great to draft him if Buium and Dickinson are not available.
Here is my happiness chart for realistic players who could fall to the Devils and be seriously considered at #10 overall:
Ecstatic and Overjoyed:
LD Buium
LD Dickinson
LD Silayev
C Helenius
W Brantsegg-Nygard
W Chernyshov
Happy:
W Iginla
C Hage
Meh:
W Catton
Unhappy:
RD Yakemchuk
RD Parekh
RD Jiricek
W Eiserman
W Greentree
Shoot Me In The Head:
W Connolly
Thanks guys for the write ups, they're appreciated for a draft novice like me even though when the Devils have high picks I tend to look at stuff on my own and see what they need the most and work from there. Would've asked for your opinion in the original post,@StevenToddIves, but I wasn't sure if you were still doing draft work for us here on Devils HF so I really appreciate you going out of your way to reply, lol.
As for Nygaard, that's what I pretty much assumed as well from when I watch him. I think he's exactly what this team was looking for after the Carolina series where the spaces this team does not go a regular basis, he'll actually go to and score goals. And he's the perfect compliment to Bratt/Jack imo and would be one of my picks at 10 if he's there. Iginla would be my other pick but like Guadana said, there's a few shortcomings with him that scare me possibly on a Jack/Bratt line but I think he'll be out of this world with them too.
Iginla would be great too. Me and Steve are less excited with Yakemchuk or Catton, im just okay with Iginla, Of course Jiricek or Greentree would be way overdrafting but even them are great player to add to this roster. Yakemchuk or Catton - even better. Iginla too. All of them are very good prospects who will immediately be our top-1/top-2/top-3 prospects on the Devils list.
Nygard and Chernyshov would be perfect to add as complimentary forwards. If you think about passing and scoring you should watch Chernyshov tapes, there are many on YouTube His passing tape to rape game in tic tac toe combination is great, he is the best puckhandler through the traffic on the draft, he is good defensively and he is very physical, his separation speed is very good - better than Helenius, much better than Iginla.
The only real problem with Hygard and Chernyshov - both are right wingers. Reason why I'm talking about Nygard from perspective of potential center, reason why I'm calling Helenius as potential Devils pick and trying to focus on him more. So if you like Suzuki from Montreal or Benson from previous draft, who was the only player outside top 3 draft picks who was good enough to play and produce on NHL level, you would like Helenius. May be he isnt the most skilled player on the draft, but his iq and compete level will help to adapt and develop his game. Like I said in previous post, its the thing that helps to be better, and he is good positionally- reason why his line will live through nhl pressure.
And having another center with last name starting from H is fun.
Will do, you piqued my interest in Chernyshov, I will definitely look into him these coming weeks. I think I've come back onto Markstrom in a trade since I want to keep this pick a ton and use it for a player. Markstrom + say Nygaard/Chernyshov/Iginla > Saros would be a better use of assets imo
Beckett Sennecke is a player I'd be talking a lot about if the Devils were picking in the 15-20 range.Thoughts on Beckett Sennecke? He has been on the rise since the beginning of the year, and Corey Pronman ranked him 12th in his latest rankings. I don't know anything else about him.
He's not dropping too far, that's for sure.I am seeing sites taht have Lindstrom dropping. Is this because of the injury problems?