GDT: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[majormajor]

Just speaking personally, to me it's not being prone, it's what's the extent of this latest back injury(do we even know if it's a confirmed back injury?) there's not a ton out there about it. If it's something minor well then meh. But if it's something that could linger, it's scary to have to Factor that into a top 5 pick.

We know it's a back injury and that it came in off ice training. Maybe he got a little too ambitious on the squat rack?

I don't think there's any of us in the pro-Lindstrom camp that are uninterested in his health situation. Obviously they'll have to look into it. It's just not something that we can figure out here. I did factor it into my rankings - that's why Lindstrom is at #4 and not #3. Obviously if he has issues at the physical that would change things.

We're all weighing out a lot of different risks with these players, you should be thinking about the health of a lot of different guys and the downside risk (health and non health) with many of them. To be injury specific -

Celebrini has had multiple shoulder surgeries on the same shoulder, missed the start of the year, and a head injury.
Demidov is currently in a walking boot from tearing his ankle, someone on the mains said the same ankle twice now.

 

[majormajor]

i had a comment in this thread about him puck-watching (not questioning compete, but engagement when his man doesn't have the puck in the d-zone) – that specific critique came from a film breakdown i watched a while ago.

It's not what I've generally seen from Lindstrom.

I think his defensive game is remarkably precocious. I'm not sure if he has been at center for very long either - I was told here that he was a winger until recently.

i don't think he's going to be a logan brown or kratsov type bust, but my concern is that guys like pavel zacha and lawson crouse had similar projections as power forwards in otherwise deep drafts and ended up as useful but ultimately disappointing (relative to draft position) players.

Zacha and Crouse were not elite junior players in their draft year, and in Zacha's case I don't recall him being that strong. Crouse is really strong and a valuable player to have, but he was never that much of a scorer at any level.

even if he's a chris kreider type player in the NHL – which i don't think is a bad comp – that's still not quite the impact you hope for from a top five pick. but again, the EP breakdowns have reassured me that he could have a really high ceiling.

Chris Kreider as a #4 pick is fine for me. He's a very impactful player at this time of year. He is the Rangers all time leading playoff goal scorer and has a chance to become the all time leader in points, surpassing Leetch. I think there is a significant chance that Lindstrom is like Kreider, it's largely why I want us to draft him!

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I think his defensive game is remarkably precocious. I'm not sure if he has been at center for very long either - I was told here that he was a winger until recently.

pretty sure he just started playing center this season.

the injury throws a wrench into his eval. he showed a sharp improvement curve this year. will that continue as he gets more experience at center? or will he plateau? hard to say without having any second-half viewings.

that makes it a potentially risky pick even if the medicals come back clean, but there's a ton of talent there and i think he's a picture-perfect case study for a top-five pick benefitting from another year in junior rather than a minor pro league.

Zacha and Crouse were not elite junior players in their draft year, and in Zacha's case I don't recall him being that strong. Crouse is really strong and a valuable player to have, but he was never that much of a scorer at any level.

i remember crouse being a real draft darling in scouting reports that year. lots of "he's built for the playoffs" and "he's a prototypical power winger" – while zacha was seen as a no-doubt top six center who played a power forward game.

lindstrom's draft season, on a per-game level, is more impressive, but both crouse and zacha were in a similar tier (#11 and #6 respectively in a historically loaded draft).

Chris Kreider as a #4 pick is fine for me. He's a very impactful player at this time of year. He is the Rangers all time leading playoff goal scorer and has a chance to become the all time leader in points, surpassing Leetch. I think there is a significant chance that Lindstrom is like Kreider, it's largely why I want us to draft him!

i don't mean this as a slight to chris kreider, who is very good, but:

1. his status as the rangers all-time playoff goal scoring leader is, in large part, a product of him having by far the most playoff games played among ranger forwards, and nearly half of those goals were on the power play (they all count the same, not trying to minimize it)
2. he didn't really break out until age 30, when he started playing with panarin (and has sustained that to a degree with zibanejad). up to that point he'd been an unspectacular albeit useful middle six winger good for 40-50 points a year.

if lindstrom is a pre-panarin kreider type player (40-50 points) that's a massive disappointment for a top five pick. if he's current kreider – an elite supporting cast member who can drive play in spurts – that's a good outcome, but still requires a gifted playmaker to truly unlock.

 

[majormajor]

i remember crouse being a real draft darling in scouting reports that year. lots of "he's built for the playoffs" and "he's a prototypical power winger"

Ironically Crouse did become that player, it just took him longer to get there.

Regardless, he never showed Lindstrom type scoring ability so it's not an easy comparison.

1. he didn't really break out until age 30, when he started playing with panarin (and has sustained that to a degree with zibanejad). up to that point he'd been an unspectacular albeit useful middle six winger good for 40-50 points a year.

if lindstrom is a pre-panarin kreider type player (40-50 points) that's a massive disappointment for a top five pick. if he's current kreider – an elite supporting cast member who can drive play in spurts – that's a good outcome, but still requires a gifted playmaker to truly unlock.

Regardless, Lindstrom shows substantially more skill and scoring than Kreider did when he was a prospect (or when he was a young player for the Rangers). The comparison is only close, to my mind, for late career Kreider.

But minor point - Kreider and Panarin have rarely played together at 5v5, in any season. Kreider broke out with Zibanejad.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Regardless, Lindstrom shows substantially more skill and scoring than Kreider did when he was a prospect (or when he was a young player for the Rangers). The comparison is only close, to my mind, for late career Kreider.

that comp makes a lot of sense to me, but my concern (which is waning the more i read/watch of lindstrom) is that a lot of those power forward comps take a while to reach the point where they can effectively parlay that playstyle into production.

that's not to say that lindstrom won't break out until he's 28 or whatever, but it's a tricky player archetype to project.

But minor point - Kreider and Panarin have rarely played together at 5v5, in any season. Kreider broke out with Zibanejad.

even more minor point: panarin was the main driver of the power play, and kreider scored 26-9–35 of his 52-25-77 that year on the man advantage

 

[majormajor]

even more minor point: panarin was the main driver of the power play, and kreider scored 26-9–35 of his 52-25-77 that year on the man advantage

Kreider is a great powerplay scorer. 26 PP goals that year, when Panarin had 37 total PP points? That says more about Kreider than you might think.

that comp makes a lot of sense to me, but my concern (which is waning the more i read/watch of lindstrom) is that a lot of those power forward comps take a while to reach the point where they can effectively parlay that playstyle into production.

that's not to say that lindstrom won't break out until he's 28 or whatever, but it's a tricky player archetype to project.

If I had to pick a comp it might be closer to Brady Tkachuk, who didn't take that long to produce.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Regardless, Lindstrom shows substantially more skill and scoring than Kreider did when he was a prospect (or when he was a young player for the Rangers). The comparison is only close, to my mind, for late career Kreider.

But minor point - Kreider and Panarin have rarely played together at 5v5, in any season. Kreider broke out with Zibanejad.

Kreider's break out in production comes mainly from playing PP. Especially in 21/22 and 23/24. Rangers powerplay has been amazing and he is great at his net front role there. His even strength play hasnt seen any breakouts imo

 

[majormajor]

Kreider's break out in production comes mainly from playing PP. Especially in 21/22 and 23/24. The even strength play hasnt seen any breakouts imo.

That's a good point.

We should probably stick to comparing Lindstrom to players more befitting of his 5v5 abilities (EP notes his very high scoring rates and chance creation rates).

 

[EspenK]

I'm all in on Lindstrom.

I feel the same way so far. I'm just now starting to dig in to this class but Lindstrom looks like he'll fit right in the NHL games that get played this time of year.

If his back passes the exam add me to the all in group.

 

[Cowumbus]

I don’t expect us to take him due to what we already have in the system, but Berkeley Catton seems like a special player. Think he will be a W at the NHL level though.

 

[Napoli]

I realize this team could probably use Lindstrom over Catton but no team is going to regret taking Catton. Elite passing and IQ and just an offensive dynamo. The main knocks are size and strength.

Ultimately I'd accept Lindstrom but I'm not overly impressed with the IQ. Yes, he'd do well in the playoffs, is he going to be effective year round? Will the draft position be warranted in 5 years? I'm doubtful.

Don't want Dickinson or Silayev. Hopefully the scouts know their guy and take him, whoever it is.

 

[squashmaple]

I realize this team could probably use Lindstrom over Catton but no team is going to regret taking Catton. Elite passing and IQ and just an offensive dynamo. The main knocks are size and strength.

Ultimately I'd accept Lindstrom but I'm not overly impressed with the IQ. Yes, he'd do well in the playoffs, is he going to be effective year round? Will the draft position be warranted in 5 years? I'm doubtful.

Don't want Dickinson or Silayev. Hopefully the scouts know their guy and take him, whoever it is.

Counter: is Catton different enough from KJ to be a worthwhile target?

Also, selfishly I do not think the Jackets should force me to look at his misspelled first name. Let him go to Ottawa and join another kid whose first name is missing an E.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[CBJx614]

Seems like most of the mocks I've seen have us taking one of Silayev, Lindstrom or Demidov if he falls and honestly, I think I would be equally content with any of those options. They each have their own pros/cons.

 

[Indy18]

Seems like most of the mocks I've seen have us taking one of Silayev, Lindstrom or Demidov if he falls and honestly, I think I would be equally content with any of those options. They each have their own pros/cons.

This is how I feel right now. We are going to get a fantastic player and the draft going chalk the way it did feels like a "lottery" win to me now after such a rough year. All the other 3 picks going out west and we actually have hard decisions to make...if we can't win the lotto this is the best case scenario.

 

[koteka]

Part of me sees this draft ending up like 2016. The clear first overall pick has a great career. There are a bunch of 1st round D men who have careers like Jake Bean and Logan Stanley while there are some guys who become top D men who weren’t necessarily the highest picked. Some highly drafted forward really doesn’t work out. A bunch of teams will end wishing they had just drafted the stud son of the stud former NHL player.

 

[CBJx614]

This is how I feel right now. We are going to get a fantastic player and the draft going chalk the way it did feels like a "lottery" win to me now after such a rough year. All the other 3 picks going out west and we actually have hard decisions to make...if we can't win the lotto this is the best case scenario.

I think what's so perfect about it is the fact that while yes it would have been nice to add Celebrinni, of the 3 probable choices that we'll have, we don't have anyone like them in the system. We have absolutely nobody in the system comparable to Silayev. Don't have any true power forwards comparable to Lindstrom and we don't have any electric playmakers over 5'10 in the system who can compare to someone like Demidov so no matter what, of those 3 we get someone we desperately need.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

i am very much not sold on silayev. will i become immediately sold on him if they draft him? sure.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

Don't be absurd. Between this and the endless "hire Trotz" takes you're batting .000 lately.

The Jackets aren't going to become Cup contenders not doing these things.

 

[ViD]

I’m going to go on record and say there’s a 75% chance the Jackets will pick a Russian speaking player

 

[Xoggz22]

I want the guy with the highest ceiling and the best chance to get there...

My preferences remain Levshunov, Lindstrom or Demidov.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

 

[puckgoalnet]

I think what a lot of people overlook with Lindstrom is that he's still growing into his body.

It's not uncommon for larger players to take longer to show their potential. Look at last year to this year with him ... last year, didn't score a lot and really didn't use his body and wasn't very aggressive. A lot of that was likely due to him "getting comfortable with his body"

This year, radically different. Much more aggressive and willing to go the tough places, usually the first one back on D, and he's not relying on his size, but using his speed and skill. You can see he really believes he can dominate a game now.

Much like Fantilli, he can take criticism and is a gym rat. The improvement to his skating and hands in one year is dramatic. This young man is still developing, at a rapid pace.

He's the kind of player that is difficult to acquire via trade ... Size, Speed, Scoring. That's something we need.

I've combed through a lot of scouting sites (Dobber, Elite, Recruit, Smaut and a couple others) and don't see anyone alarmed about his injury.

 

[JacketsFanWest]

I wonder if there's still an impact on prospect development from the pandemic.

Players in this draft played fewer games in the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons than usual. For example, Cayden Lindstrom is listed on Elite Prospects as only playing 2 NAHL U18 in 2019-2020 and 4 CSSHL U15 games the following year. EP doesn't list all games, so perhaps he played in lower leagues or unofficial games, but a lot of stuff was cancelled - not just games, but tournaments, camps, clinics, etc. So these prospects might be a bit behind.

Off-ice training could have been impacted as well. Prospects trying to make major junior teams at 15-16 frequently go to off-ice training programs that had to have been impacted by the pandemic.

Berkly Catton and Beckett Sennecke also seem like they're a little behind where prospects might normally be in their draft year - both physically and rounding out their on-ice performance. Not that they can't catch up, but it makes evaluating them and comparisons to older players more difficult.

Beckett Sennecke had a late growth spurt so it's hard to tell how he'll end up playing when he grows into his body. The Combine stats on his height and weight will also be interesting. He might be 6'3 and 180-something lbs.

 

[majormajor]

I realize this team could probably use Lindstrom over Catton but no team is going to regret taking Catton. Elite passing and IQ and just an offensive dynamo. The main knocks are size and strength.

Ultimately I'd accept Lindstrom but I'm not overly impressed with the IQ. Yes, he'd do well in the playoffs, is he going to be effective year round? Will the draft position be warranted in 5 years? I'm doubtful.

Don't want Dickinson or Silayev. Hopefully the scouts know their guy and take him, whoever it is.

I think if Catton can stay healthy he's a star player in the NHL, probably a premier playmaking winger (he says he thinks he's a winger). But I wonder if he can stay healthy in the NHL.

Counter: is Catton different enough from KJ to be a worthwhile target?

Or different from Gaudreau? Catton has a thin frail type of build, he looks smaller than his listing and there's lots of talk about him not having the body type to get bigger.

Part of me sees this draft ending up like 2016. The clear first overall pick has a great career. There are a bunch of 1st round D men who have careers like Jake Bean and Logan Stanley while there are some guys who become top D men who weren’t necessarily the highest picked. Some highly drafted forward really doesn’t work out. A bunch of teams will end wishing they had just drafted the stud son of the stud former NHL player.

Like Logan Brown, son of the stud Jeff Brown, drafted 11th OA in 2016?