GDT: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[koteka]

Buium is 6'0.

The last five Norris winners:

6'0
5'11
5'11
6'1
6'0




I'm trying to imagine this convo in a real scouting context. Even the old boys network scouts that obsess over size would laugh you out of the room.

If you want to know how good someone is at defending, you do an analysis of defense, not a height measurement.

Jeez. Norris often goes to the best offensive defenseman on a winning team. It has almost nothing to do with defense. You know way too much about hockey to be this lazy with your argument. I am seriously embarrassed for you that you brought up the Norris.

Smaller guys need to prove they can use their bodies, poke check, block shots, take the checks in the corner, etc. against NHL players. Just because you can battle for the puck with a 20 year old in juniors doesn’t mean you can do it against a grown man in the NHL.

 

[Cowumbus]

Just because you can battle for the puck with a 20 year old in juniors doesn’t mean you can do it against a grown man in the NHL.

FYI, I think this is something that Buium needs to work on. Puck battling stats have not been so kind to him (at least early in the season).

However, I think there is a lot of value in his ability to exit the zone quickly (maybe I overrate this skill due to watching Peeke be unable to pick the puck off the boards and move it quickly for the last 3 years), in part due to his hockey IQ. You don’t need to be an elite shutdown defender if the opposing team cannot get established in your zone. I’d like to see the CBJ have a few more “forecheck killers” on the team.

 

[majormajor]

Jeez. Norris often goes to the best offensive defenseman on a winning team. It has almost nothing to do with defense. You know way too much about hockey to be this lazy with your argument. I am seriously embarrassed for you that you brought up the Norris.

Erik Karlsson is the only one I object to.

Makar, Josi, and Fox are the actual best D-men in the league, you're going to beat the opposition at both ends with them on the ice.

Obviously mediocre offensive D are worth zero. But that's not who we are discussing in the top 5 of this draft. There are D on the table who could be the actual best D-man in the league. And if your scouts think they have such a player lined up, then you take them, you don't fuss around with team need, especially not for a team with a balanced pool like ours.

 

[majormajor]

FYI, I think this is something that Buium needs to work on. Puck battling stats have not been so kind to him (at least early in the season).

Do you mind sharing where you picked that up? I love some good niche stats.

His NCHC playoff games I noticed he was very well positioned at both ends, but he wasn't trying to steal pucks or pin guys, more of an efficient/lazy (depending on your take) defensive style.

However, I think there is a lot of value in his ability to exit the zone quickly (maybe I overrate this skill due to watching Peeke be unable to pick the puck off the boards and move it quickly for the last 3 years), in part due to his hockey IQ. You don’t need to be an elite shutdown defender if the opposing team cannot get established in your zone. I’d like to see the CBJ have a few more “forecheck killers” on the team.

You don't overrate the skill at all. A great breakout passer will have much lower goals against as a result.

Buium is well built and strong on his edges too. I was saying the other day that his reach at 6'0 is the only thing I really wish he had more of in puck battles.

 

[koteka]

Makar, Josi, and Fox are the actual best D-men in the league, you're going to beat the opposition at both ends with them on the ice.

Josi is the best defensive player of the group. And the tallest. And the heaviest. Makar is a freak. You don’t draft anyone and expect to get another Makar. And that is because the guys draft prospects play against are either smaller than NHL players (juniors) or not nearly as talented as NHL (European pro leagues). Again, I love the player Buium is. I’m just not ready to project him as a good NHL defender yet. Heck, Jiricek is a guy we all thought would be a good defender and he is still a long ways away. I am rolling the dice on Lindstrom or Catton rather than Buium.

 

[EspenK]

Josi is the best defensive player of the group. And the tallest. And the heaviest. Makar is a freak. You don’t draft anyone and expect to get another Makar. And that is because the guys draft prospects play against are either smaller than NHL players (juniors) or not nearly as talented as NHL (European pro leagues). Again, I love the player Buium is. I’m just not ready to project him as a good NHL defender yet. Heck, Jiricek is a guy we all thought would be a good defender and he is still a long ways away. I am rolling the dice on Lindstrom or Catton rather than Buium.

I agree on the bolded. And I'll further narrow it down to Lindstrom. He will either be a good 2C behind Fantilli or a big,power forward.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

Lose out

 

[EspenK]

Good night last night. Ottawa & Montreal won.

 

[Cowumbus]

Do you mind sharing where you picked that up? I love some good niche stats.

here are some of them, though this is really old:


I don’t pay for their services anymore so that’s all I can find online

 

[Cowumbus]

Good night last night. Ottawa & Montreal won.

Unfortunately the Coyotes couldn’t score on a 5 on 3 late in the third and then gave up a goal with 4 mins left to lose, or it would have been perfect.

 

[EspenK]

here are some of them, though this is really old:


I don’t pay for their services anymore so that’s all I can find online

So I'm guessing that orange 40 for D is not good?

 

[Cowumbus]

So I'm guessing that orange 40 for D is not good?

For a freshman that’s pretty dang good actually. And that was for his first 15 games.

 

[majormajor]

For a freshman that’s pretty dang good actually. And that was for his first 15 games.

Not only that, Buium is 17 years old in that sample. Hutson is 18 there, Sanderson 19, and Lohrei 20.

I'm not sure how much to weigh the "defence" section of those charts. I think the individual components paint an interesting picture and show where a player can step up, e.g. puck battles.

Sanderson I think quite obviously projects to be a better defender in the NHL than 95%+ of NCAA defenders, yet is only showing up here as average defensively, which is interesting.

 

[Cowumbus]

Not only that, Buium is 17 years old in that sample. Hutson is 18 there, Sanderson 19, and Lohrei 20.

I'm not sure how much to weigh the "defence" section of those charts. I think the individual components paint an interesting picture and show where a player can step up, e.g. puck battles.

Sanderson I think quite obviously projects to be a better defender in the NHL than 95%+ of NCAA defenders, yet is only showing up here as average defensively, which is interesting.

I think the defensive stats don’t take into account matchups (or how good your team is), but are solely rate based. For instance:

Nick is a good player but I’m not sure he is this good defensively..


More guys for reference^

 

[majormajor]

More guys for reference^

Okay that is just weird to see those puck battle stats for Faber. He looks great at it in the NHL, seals opponents off as well as anybody in the league.

 

[Viqsi]

I choose to ignore all the context you just provided and instead lean exclusively on this as evidence for why Nick Blankenburg is a #1D and we need to be playing him next to Werenski right now.

 

[majormajor]

I saw that this Yegor Surin kid has two points per game for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl in the MHL playoffs.

He's 17 through August.

He has good size.

I looked up some video, expecting a typical silky one way Russian forward prospect.



He's a total package center. A lot of skill but also great battle ability, great small area pivots, I love the defensive anticipation. A lot of high IQ plays in this video.

I don't know exactly where I'd have him but so far I'd rather have Surin than most of the guys I usually see ranked #13-#17. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Liam Greentree look dull in comparison. Chernyshov looks like an NHL scoring winger, big fast North-South player, but nothing special.

If Surin is on the board past pick 20 I'd be calling everyone trying to move a package to get back in the first and snap him up.

Edit: Here's more context on Surin from Grant McCagg, starting at 34:00. Pretty good reel of his special plays here too, including some big hits.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

I saw that this Yegor Surin kid has two points per game for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl in the MHL playoffs.

He's 17 through August.

He has good size.

I looked up some video, expecting a typical silky one way Russian forward prospect.



He's a total package center. A lot of skill but also great battle ability, great small area pivots, I love the defensive anticipation. A lot of high IQ plays in this video.

I don't know exactly where I'd have him but so far I'd rather have Surin than most of the guys I usually see ranked #13-#17. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Liam Greentree look dull in comparison. Chernyshov looks like an NHL scoring winger, big fast North-South player, but nothing special.

If Surin is on the board past pick 20 I'd be calling everyone trying to move a package to get back in the first and snap him up.

He's generally been ranked as a mid-to-late 2nd as far as I've seen, so maybe he's still there for CBJ's 2nd. But if they really like him and think he might be a late 1st, it might be worth trading up to get him.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[Xoggz22]

I'm clearly no expert but reading all I can about this draft and the top end, it appears there is some significant drop off after the first 5 defensemen or so (5 of the top 10 picks appear to be consensus on defensemen) but it looks like there is very good center depth. While we don't know the approach of the new GM, my lean would be to draft one of the high end d-men with the 1st and then keep our second and take one of the centers. I think we'll have a good shot at picking up one that would provide further depth down the road and develop into a top 6 guy. This would allow the GM to work with the roster to see who we keep, who we trade and who we don't re-sign.

I really like Surin, Boisvert, Luchanko, Misa and Zether (probably that order for me). I would think at least one would be available around 36-38.

Another I'm interested in learning more about (3rd round?) is Letourneau. Huge, can skate and big upside.

 

[majormajor]

I don't know if Demidov is a center but at his talent level I don't think it matters, he's just too good. I think he can be the total package.



I'm starting to really like this draft. The top half of the first round is good. I would have had Demidov (or Buium) a clear 4th last year after the big 3.

I'm clearly no expert but reading all I can about this draft and the top end, it appears there is some significant drop off after the first 5 defensemen or so (5 of the top 10 picks appear to be consensus on defensemen) but it looks like there is very good center depth. While we don't know the approach of the new GM, my lean would be to draft one of the high end d-men with the 1st and then keep our second and take one of the centers. I think we'll have a good shot at picking up one that would provide further depth down the road and develop into a top 6 guy. This would allow the GM to work with the roster to see who we keep, who we trade and who we don't re-sign.

I really like Surin, Boisvert, Luchanko, Misa and Zether (probably that order for me). I would think at least one would be available around 36-38.

Another I'm interested in learning more about (3rd round?) is Letourneau. Huge, can skate and big upside.

Who is the 6th defenseman? They're so jumbled up in rankings that I can't imagine a drop off from 5 to 6.

Personally I am most skeptical of Parekh. Though even he is just having an incredible season and looks to be improving his weaknesses.

 

[stevo61]

I don't know if Demidov is a center but at his talent level I don't think it matters, he's just too good. I think he can be the total package.



I'm starting to really like this draft. The top half of the first round is good. I would have had Demidov (or Buium) a clear 4th last year after the big 3.



Who is the 6th defenseman? They're so jumbled up in rankings that I can't imagine a drop off from 5 to 6.

Personally I am most skeptical of Parekh. Though even he is just having an incredible season and looks to be improving his weaknesses.

Yeah but Demidov is a forward we have lots of . I wonder how big he'll be when he fills out

 

[majormajor]

Yeah but Demidov is a forward we have lots of

Lol.

I don't see a surplus of elite players at any position.

 

[Cowumbus]

Habs win, and looking like the Coyotes will win. Starting to get some separation at the bottom of the standings.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Habs win, and looking like the Coyotes will win. Starting to get some separation at the bottom of the standings.

We’re probably locked in at 4th for the lottery. I don’t see us getting hot enough to catch Arizona and I don’t see Anaheim getting hot enough to pass us.