HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[TheBuriedHab]

Only if Lindstrom's medicals are bad.

Right now it looks like the sense is Demidov-Lindstrom-Sennecke in that order.



I can see it but it's not Dickinson, it's Levshunov.

- Russian factor is there, it's not a big factor but it's there.
- Demidov is a smaller winger with not great skating, this isn't the best combination with their already smaller forward group.
- Demidov has played in the MHL two years in a row, not a lot of viewings against high level competition
- They have live viewings of Levshunov, they don't have live viewings of Demidov.
- They have a big hole on right defense and for a #1 defenseman and we know teams value defenseman over wingers 95% of the time.
- Blackhawks are in a multi-year rebuild and if you forecast the next draft, it's barren on defense but full of skilled forwards and skilled forwards with size.



What if the internal evaluation of Hutson, Engstrom and Xhekaj are higher than yours?

What if the internal evaluation of Buium and Dickinson are lower than yours?

You don't draft Buium because you already like what you have on the left side and you aren't as bullish on him. I'm not that bullish on Buium and a bunch of other teams obvious aren't either, otherwise he'd be viewed a lot higher on the NHL affiliated lists than he is.



Ducks will be looking at Levshunov/Silayev/Dickinson they need a big, rangy, defensive oriented defenseman to help insulate Mintyukov and Zellweger. They already have MacTavish, Terry, Carlsson, Zegras and Gauthier up front.



So two examples of a defenseman for forward trade in the last, what, 10 years?

This is a fallacy that it's so easy to find a match if you have too many defenseman to flip them for a forward.



That was his own personal list, it's his mock draft that is influenced by what he is hearing. That being said, the noise around Sennecke is legit and Pronman described him as having loud tools, which he does.

I think it's a bit too black and white to say only his mock drafts are influenced by what he hears. I think there is a mix of both. Like Yakemchuk being so high on his list all year to me screams he heard something from nhl scouts.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You can keep narrowing your production criteria all you want to minimize the difference, Heiskanen is lightyears ahead offensively. Like I said, Guhle outproduced as a 20 year old leading to the Stanley Cup Finals while when Guhle was a 20 year old in the WHL playoffs he was tied for 5th in points.

Guhle's game has never been around offense. Playing him on the PP won't make his production sky rocket, he wasn't even really productive in junior.

One's a Norris candidate while the other is a #2/3, I'd say that's a massive difference

Lindholm was not the 1D on the Ducks, Fowler was. That being said, 4 of the Ducks dmen at that time had similar ice time between 20-23 min, but Fowler still led them.

Well said. I 100% agree. Jumping on Matheson's back because he is running our PP and doing well while wanting more offensive usage for Guhle reminds me of devaluing Danault because we had KK. When they are ready, they are ready. This is not a junior league.

Guhle is more of a D guy. He's still going to put up some points but his focus is being effective at both ends. His time will come on the PP and you better bet they tried a few things in practice as well.

 

[Mrb1p]

You can keep narrowing your production criteria all you want to minimize the difference, Heiskanen is lightyears ahead offensively. Like I said, Guhle outproduced as a 20 year old leading to the Stanley Cup Finals while when Guhle was a 20 year old in the WHL playoffs he was tied for 5th in points.

Guhle's game has never been around offense. Playing him on the PP won't make his production sky rocket, he wasn't even really productive in junior.

One's a Norris candidate while the other is a #2/3, I'd say that's a massive difference

Lindholm was not the 1D on the Ducks, Fowler was. That being said, 4 of the Ducks dmen at that time had similar ice time between 20-23 min, but Fowler still led them.

Out to lunch on this one lil bro.

Heiskanens playoff production was a massive outlier until last year, it's entirely possible to attribute it to unsustainable production/luck.

You're ignoring Guhle's game, and how he was and is used. Heiskanen gets a lot of offensive opportunities, whereas even in WHL Guhle got heavy defensive assignments. Despite this, Guhle finished only four point short of Dylan Guenther, who's pretty much a clear shot at a first line high-offense winger.

Again, he doesn't even need to be Heiskanen and I've said a couple times I don't think Guhle gets to that level, but to act like he's a 2-3 type when he's not far off Heiskanen relatively is a bit asinine. He's at the very worst a top 30-35 D in the league, at best he might crack the top 10.

 

[Skip Bayless]

It's more of a possibility than most fans are willing to admit.

From what I hear, teams are not as high on him as most fans are. There doesn't seem to be as clear separation between him and the top Ds + Lindstrom and Iggy.

 

[Mrb1p]

Well said. I 100% agree. Jumping on Matheson's back because he is running our PP and doing well while wanting more offensive usage for Guhle reminds me of devaluing Danault because we had KK. When they are ready, they are ready. This is not a junior league.

Guhle is more of a D guy. He's still going to put up some points but his focus is being effective at both ends. His time will come on the PP and you better bet they tried a few things in practice as well.

Was Slaf ready when he moved to the top line? Was Caufield ready when he moved to the top line? Opporutiny and investing in a player, especially on a losing team is much more important than gimme points to sub-par vets and catering to the fans who can't bear watching a team lose.

Sennecke over Iginla… j’ai mon voyage

I'd go to war with you on this one. This is beyond stupid.

I know you don't like skill and small players but it's just as stupid to say Sennecke over Catton, or even Lindstrom (Unless the injury scare is real.)

There should be no scenario in which Sennecke is picked before any of the 5 top forwards. He's just not it.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Was Slaf ready when he moved to the top line? Was Caufield ready when he moved to the top line? Opporutiny and investing in a player, especially on a losing team is much more important than gimme points to sub-par vets and catering to the fans who can't bear watching a team lose.

Yes, I do think this comes from things they try in practice. If there are positive gains in practice, they try it in games. Guhle was tried on our PP at times. He's just not that good at controlling the puck and gaining entry. Slaf was tried on the PP at times and moved off of it when he struggled. They clearly worked at things in practice before they get obsessive at trying it blindly in actual games... and letting the player struggle.

 

[Mrb1p]

From what I hear, teams are not as high on him as most fans are. There doesn't seem to be as clear separation between him and the top Ds + Lindstrom and Iggy.

Doesn't make them right, like they did with Benson and Michkov last year. It's just even more confirmation that the average NHL management is stupid as f***.

Yes, I do think this comes from things they try in practice. If there are positive gains in practice, they try in in games. Guhle was tried on our PP at times. He's just not that good at controlling the puck and gaining entry. Slaf was tried on the PP at times and moved off of it when he struggled. They clearly worked at things in practice before they get obsessive at trying it blindly in actual games.

Slaf was practicing on the third line until the captain went into the coach's office to tell him he'd take him under his wing.

There's no way out of this one, Slaf directly disproves your point. You can say its a case by case situation, I'll agree.

I'll show you Guhles and Mathesons 5v5 production and then you can flip flop another time. Hint: Guhle outproduced him so far with the Habs, despite getting no offensive opportunities.

 

[The Great Weal]

Out to lunch on this one lil bro.

Aren't you the one only looking at primary even strength points and ignoring everything else?

Heiskanens playoff production was a massive outlier until last year, it's entirely possible to attribute it to unsustainable production/luck.

Lol and I'm out to lunch? Massive outlier for 2 years where he got 73 points in 79 games and had another excellent playoff run (and another one this year). That alone proves it's not an outlier lol. Also I'm not really following your logic. So Heiskanen is a top 3/5 dman in the league according to you, but his production unsustainable/luck for the most part, so why is he a top 3/5 dman in the league if it's not sustainable (which it is)?

You're ignoring Guhle's game, and how he was and is used. Heiskanen gets a lot of offensive opportunities, whereas even in WHL Guhle got heavy defensive assignments. Despite this, Guhle finished only four point short of Dylan Guenther, who's pretty much a clear shot at a first line high-offense winger.

Don't know why you're acting like it's blasphemous to suggest that Heiskanen is better offensively than Guhle regardless of opportunities and ice time.

Again, he doesn't even need to be Heiskanen and I've said a couple times I don't think Guhle gets to that level, but to act like he's a 2-3 type when he's not far off Heiskanen relatively is a bit asinine. He's at the very worst a top 30-35 D in the league, at best he might crack the top 10.

So there is a massive difference between Heiskanen and Lindholm, like I said. Glad you can acknowledge that.

 

[Mrb1p]

Aren't you the one only looking at primary even strength points and ignoring everything else?

Lol and I'm out to lunch? Massive outlier for 2 years where he got 73 points in 79 games and had another excellent playoff run (and another one this year). That alone proves it's not an outlier lol. Also I'm not really following your logic. So Heiskanen is a top 3/5 dman in the league according to you, but his production unsustainable/luck for the most part, so why is he a top 3/5 dman in the league if it's not sustainable (which it is)?

Don't know why you're acting like it's blasphemous to suggest that Heiskanen is better offensively than Guhle regardless of opportunities and ice time.

So there is a massive difference between Heiskanen and Lindholm, like I said. Glad you can acknowledge that.

It's like you didn't even bother reading. You compared their head to head 20 years old season, I gave you context on this one. I said Miros 20 YO post season was an outlier UNTIL his 23 years old season.

I say it's blasphemous to consider the difference between Heiskanen and Guhle (and prime Lindholm, for that matter) massive. It's not. The early career numbers reflect exactly that. Guhle and Lindholm are both top 40 range + Ds at this point in their careers and Lindholm was 20+ in his prime. The difference between 5 to 20ish is not "massive" and it surely isn't enough to keep a team from winning with said player. Case in point being the SCFs defenses right now.

 

[crosbyshow]

You might have your own opinion or draft board, but have you seen any credible list that has Catton in the top 5? 5'-11" and 163 lbs. He's a skill type that will most likely never be gritty. Someone like Suzuki was 185 lbs at the same age as Catton today. The ability to use edge work and cut around guys depends on weight/strength. Do you think Catton is the type to put on muscle and get to 190+? I think we made this mistake with KK. "he will fill into his frame". Personally, I rather take the guy who is already strong and has skill/skating.

I see S Jarvis type. A good top 6F.



I've seen him shy away from contract along the boards in some of the video I have watched and I also think it's the reason why he only got 4 KHL games. He's not ready physically.

Catton is at 5.11 , 175 now. 163 was many months ago. He said it twice already to French medias 3 weeks ago

 

[Ozmodiar]

More and more I get the sense that the Demigod will fall to us.

The Dickinson effect.

 

[The Great Weal]

Hint: Guhle outproduced him so far with the Habs, despite getting no offensive opportunities.

Matheson has 55 EV points in 130 games as a Hab.
Guhle has 40 EV points in 114 games as a Hab.

Even Savard has 3 more EV points than Guhle in 8 more games in the past two seasons.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

It's more of a possibility than most fans are willing to admit.

And then we pass on him for Helenius.

 

[Mrb1p]

Matheson has 55 EV points in 130 games as a Hab.
Guhle has 40 EV points in 114 games as a Hab.

Even Savard has 3 more EV points than Guhle in 8 more games in the past two seasons.

Even strength is 3v3, 4v4, 5v5.

 

[Apfel Struble]

The worst part about this draft is that the Sens will probably get a really good LD prospect

 

[Sorinth]

Was Slaf ready when he moved to the top line? Was Caufield ready when he moved to the top line? Opporutiny and investing in a player, especially on a losing team is much more important than gimme points to sub-par vets and catering to the fans who can't bear watching a team lose.

I think it's fairly safe to say that yes Slaf and Caufield were in fact ready and they proved it by producing. Being ready is always going to be a subjective evaluation and can only be proven right or wrong after actually being given the opportunity. We won't know for sure if Guhle is ready for #1 PP duties until he gets the opportunity on the #1 PP unit, but it's fair to say no one wants to see Guhle given that opportunity only to struggle with it so you have to be very confident or not have a choice due to injuries.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

The calculus is always is the improvement of Dickinson vs Guhle (if there even is any) bigger than the improvement of the forward on basically Gallagher.

Trading a surplus for a need is a nice idea but again it's more rare than people make it out to be.

Another way to say this is it depends on how good the prospect is. IF the LD is a franchise player according to the scouts, they should take him. IF the LD is a bonafide #1 according to the scouts, they should take him.

Similar with if the player is a F. Depends on who the scouts like (#1C etc.).

Gallagher (and most Habs on the current roster) are irrelevant because drafted players typically take 2-3 years minimum to have a true impact, and the vast majority of those vets will all be gone by then.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Catton is at 5.11 , 175 now. 163 was many months ago. He said it twice already to French medias 3 weeks ago

A little better but I don't see him being a gritty skilled type. I doubt Catton get as physically strong as Suzuki has gotten with his development. We are talking about anomalies with Suzuki's focus on adding muscle.

If I'm wrong on Catton, I'll gladly eat crow on this. I just don't have him in my top 6 consideration.

 

[Habs Halifax]

And then we pass on him for Helenius.

Not with me. I think we got our Helenius with Beck and/or Kapanen. Doubt Helenius is that much better but it's always possible.

My targets are one of Dickinson, Demidov, Iggy, Lindstrom. Those are my BPA's from 2-5. Lindstrom being the wild card and someone like Buium is on par with Lindstrom.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Pick Dickinson, then trade Matheson and the late 1st to a team who missed, but were close to, the playoffs. Minny, Flyers, Detroit…

Dickinson Reinbacher
Ghule Mailloux
Hutson Xhekaj

Draft Sennecke, Eiserman, Helenius … someone in that top 15 before the “drop-off”.

 

[Kents polished head]

I'd go to war with you on this one. This is beyond stupid.

I know you don't like skill and small players but it's just as stupid to say Sennecke over Catton, or even Lindstrom (Unless the injury scare is real.)

There should be no scenario in which Sennecke is picked before any of the 5 top forwards. He's just not it.

When you always hear/read "He has not grown into his body just yet" as one of the primary reasons to be excited about the guy, you know there's a HUGE potential for it turning into a disaster.

That being said, I fully expect him to be our pick. This is the most Montreal Canadiens thing to do. Coming out of two consecutive top-5 picks with Reinbacher and Sennecke. WTFG.

 

[Mrb1p]

When you always hear/read "He has not grown into his body just yet" as one of the primary reasons to be excited about the guy, you know there's a HUGE potential for it turning into a disaster.

That being said, I fully expect him to be our pick. This is the most Montreal Canadiens thing to do. Coming out of two consecutive top-5 picks with Reinbacher and Sennecke. WTFG.

It's also ignoring that almost all these players haven't grown into their bodies yet. The only player that has grown in his body in the top 15 is Levshunov and maybe Dickinson. Cattom is a flyweight, Iginla is a tooth pick and still 17, Buium looked like my girlfriend from 30 years ago, etc. It's just a ridiculous notion overall.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I think it's a bit too black and white to say only his mock drafts are influenced by what he hears. I think there is a mix of both. Like Yakemchuk being so high on his list all year to me screams he heard something from nhl scouts.

Fair enough, let's say there is definitely some bias from what he hears from scouts. It's natural to do that, but I'd say that his mock draft based on what he is hearing is a more accurate representation of how the draft will go vs. how he has his list structured.

He does have a big thing for Yakemchuk and did say some scouts have him as the best D in the class and others aren't sold on the skating and IQ.

Another way to say this is it depends on how good the prospect is. IF the LD is a franchise player according to the scouts, they should take him. IF the LD is a bonafide #1 according to the scouts, they should take him.

Similar with if the player is a F. Depends on who the scouts like (#1C etc.).

Gallagher (and most Habs on the current roster) are irrelevant because drafted players typically take 2-3 years minimum to have a true impact, and the vast majority of those vets will all be gone by then.

Basically what I would challenge everyone to think through on the BPA vs. positional need argument, when people are saying just take the BPA and it's X LHD.

Do people honestly think the Habs would pass on someone they thought is a 1D or a franchise defenseman because he's a left shot UNLESS they had the staunch belief that they already had that in Guhle or Hutson?

The logical answer to the thought exercise is that either the scouting staff isn't as high on the LD in this class as some people are or they are that high on what they have in house.

They can and could be wrong, but it doesn't mean the process is wrong.

When you always hear/read "He has not grown into his body just yet" as one of the primary reasons to be excited about the guy, you know there's a HUGE potential for it turning into a disaster.

That being said, I fully expect him to be our pick. This is the most Montreal Canadiens thing to do. Coming out of two consecutive top-5 picks with Reinbacher and Sennecke. WTFG.

I didn't know Reinbacher busted and just a year ago people were kicking their dogs over taking Slaf at 1 instead of Wright/Cooley and saying that is the most Montreal Canadiens thing to do.

If we get Sennecke, you will probably have his jersey at some point during his career.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Fair enough, let's say there is definitely some bias from what he hears from scouts. It's natural to do that, but I'd say that his mock draft based on what he is hearing is a more accurate representation of how the draft will go vs. how he has his list structured.

He does have a big thing for Yakemchuk and did say some scouts have him as the best D in the class and others aren't sold on the skating and IQ.



Basically what I would challenge everyone to think through on the BPA vs. positional need argument, when people are saying just take the BPA and it's X LHD.

Do people honestly think the Habs would pass on someone they thought is a 1D or a franchise defenseman because he's a left shot UNLESS they had the staunch belief that they already had that in Guhle or Hutson?

The logical answer to the thought exercise is that either the scouting staff isn't as high on the LD in this class as some people are or they are that high on what they have in house.

They can and could be wrong, but it doesn't mean the process is wrong.



I didn't know Reinbacher busted and just a year ago people were kicking their dogs over taking Slaf at 1 instead of Wright/Cooley and saying that is the most Montreal Canadiens thing to do.

If we get Sennecke, you will probably have his jersey at some point during his career.

I wasn't a huge fan of the Reinbacher pick (to put it lightly), and Sennecke is 9th on my board but his potential is as high as any of the other forwards in his tier (Catton, Lindstrom, Iginla)

 

[ReHabs]

Buium looked like my girlfriend from 30 years ago, etc. It's just a ridiculous notion overall.

I'm so sorry for you