2024 NHL Draft Thread Part 2 - Picks 2 & 18 in the 1st Round

[Castle8130]

I usually evaluate my own eye test based on whether or not the metrics and what I'm seeing on the ice match up.

But yes, I agree with this post.

I'd trust Bader's model over Musto 10/10 times. Occasionally a blind squirrel finds his nut.

I have a pretty good feel for defensive instincts for defensemen (after playing for a good 15 years of it), so I really enjoy finding tape on the draft class defenders and making my own analysis. Once I'm done using the eye test, I look at analytics/numbers and other people who I respect rankings and go from there.

For instance two guys I looked at recently on defense, Badinka and Elick, I felt way better about Badinka than Elick from the eye test. I then took a look at my sources rankings and their numbers. It made me feel even better about my conclusion that Badinka is more promising than Elick.

 

[TheFridge]

Bader's model is better than your eye test.

NHLe is not to be taken seriously. Every time I see that guy on my feed, I cringe.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Maybe, i think i read that back then, but the coach seemed to make up his mind on Michkov from the years prior and they sent him to Sochi after 1 game. I think ability isn't being judged there.

Ahh, you could be right. I dont know much about the whole situation.

 

[TLEH]

NHLe alone is garbage, and that is exactly what Bader does.

 

[HawksDub89]

YOU HAVE FOOTAGE

YOU CAN LITERALLY GO ON YOUTUBE AND WATCH THESE GUYS PLAY WITH YOUR OWN EYES

STOP POSTING BADER

^^^

NHLe alone is garbage, and that is exactly what Bader does.

I’ve always felt that using analytics to validate the eye test (film, live viewing) is best practice.

Simply relying on graphs is foolish.

 

[belfour30]

I was poking at Musto.

 

[TLEH]

Pronman doesn't suck. I'm also not sure why everyone thinks Levshunov doesn't have strong hockey sense. All the kid has done the last two years is produce. How many stupid defensemen put up almost a PpG as freshmen in college? You only do that if you're making a ton of plays. The issue with Levshunov isn't that he's stupid (or has average/bad hockey sense), it's that he's overly aggressive offensively and in transition, by the sounds of it.

I don’t think he has strong hockey sense because I’ve watched him a lot and see it.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Analytics vs eye test are a big debate among the newer generation. Quite frankly, the analytics aren't there yet. Many teams have tried and failed using pure analytics. NHLe is a good thing to look at, but you need an eye test to go along with it. Right now, whatever Dallas is doing is the right way to go.

Dallas just goes BPA. Most of the time, they don't go off the board. And their picks tend to have projectable size.

2017 - Heiskanen at 3, ranked 3rd on Bob's list. Oettinger at 26, ranked 26 on Bob's list and the consensus best goalie in the draft (also 6'5"). Robertson at 39, ranked 30 on Bob's list.

2019 - They select Thomas Harley 19th overall. He was 17 on Bob's list. Also 6'3", good skater, and an August birthday.

2020 - Mavrik Bourque isn't in the NHL but just had a nasty season in the AHL. Drafted 30th overall, ranked 26 on Bob's list.

2021 - Wyatt Johnston didn't play in his draft so this is one you can give Dallas a ton of credit for because they really did their homework here. Logan Stankoven drafted 47th, ranked 27 on Bob's list. Everyone thought he should've been drafted in the 1st round.

They went off the board in 2022, so we'll see what happens there. No 1st round selection in 2023.

But yeah basically they play it really safe for the most part, and that works in their favor. They don't try to "galaxy brain" their picks like many teams tend to do. They just go for value.

seeing more Dickenson at 2 talk cc: @Kevin Musto

Yeah it's unfortunate, but anyone who knows what KD values can put two and two together.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

The one position we don’t need, if Dickinson is the pick I don’t know just anymore. I was fine with the trade up to 18, but then that won’t make sense anymore either.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Wait until draft night and see who they take and then get your panties in a bunch

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Yea, no reason to borrow worry.

 

[Darkstar]

Pronman has lost his mind, saying that Levshunov has the highest level of IQ is something

It's certainly a take. Buium has the highest hockey IQ among these Dmen and it isn't close.

 

[TheFridge]

^^^



I’ve always felt that using analytics to validate the eye test (film, live viewing) is best practice.

Simply relying on graphs is foolish.

There is value in analytics. NHLe is just a point equivalency calculation that factors in age.

 

[hawksfan50]

BobMcKenzie's FINAL draft ranking does not cone out till the week prior to the draft...

If the Dallas model never strays too far from that ranking but with a direction of taking size if what is left as near BPA's when they pick then CHI is not going to duplicate the Dallas model :

1.As we know KD has stated skating and speed over size is his Mayra...

2.Acordibg to BobMckenzie there is no real "consensus" after Celebrini and itvis possible 5 or 6 teams drafting right after Celebrini is the at #2 may ALL get a kid they had ranked at#2..

So the consomidated ranking you see posted on ekuteprospects com where they take rankibgs of many different ranking orgs and average out a consensus from that which may or may not agree with their own ranking Kistler,is not to be relied on that mich this draft in the first 5-7selections after Celebrini who us the only real consensus BOA ..

Mckenzie has stated that in 35 years of doing what he does he has never seen such a difference of opinion...dores it tmean that if the10 nhl scouts he polls to get his list (which has a very high correlation to how the draft usually goes in the top ten ), that THIS DRAFT tgesex10 scouts are all over the place in their top ten rankings let alone the rest of thecdraft?

Mckenzie has indicated so ..

We will have to wait to see hos final ranking but he insitsxtge gaps according to his panel of w0 nhl scouts is extremely close on projectile value..

Given the respected rankibg that Mckenzie puts out from his poll of real scouts paid by 10 different NHL teams,it may be that KD's choice at #2is NOT the favourite "BOA" as the "conslkudated rankings" number you see on eliteorospects.com.

If there is no Hawks scout in that group of 10 opinions McKenziec ses then what others think inany averaged "consensus" does not matter...itvpnly matters what Doneghy and his amateur scouting staff think.

So we know that despite the great skill of Denidov...loved by so many other ranking orgs that give him a "consokidated ranking of #2,we know tgat at mid-term the Mckenziepanel of te
n scouts from 10 different NHL teams only had homat #6 when the pollingg was averaged out...Did they upgrade Denidov to a higher ranking on the zfibak ranking?

We have to wait and see.

If he ro se to #2or every #3 will KD take him as the BPA on hos own Hawks rankibg list ?

I do not know.

But IF Demidov shows as only #4,#5or #6 on that Mckenzie list,woukd that rankibg persuade KD to doubt his own rankibg if he had Denidov as a "clear" BOA at #2?

Again..I do not know.

In other words how far if a gap between what KD has Denidov o nthe Hawks BPA ranking vs. Others in the next 4 or5 on his list would KD be willing to go off eitger his list or ttgec2cotger "consensus" lists(Consilidated raking and Mckenzie 10 scout poll ranking?

Do we know if Hawksvibfkuenced byvsuchbitgercramjibgs?

Pr even to the last minute what if theirviwn firece debate in Hawks wartime between maybe 2 prospects so close with equal value there is no gap to say whi is or will be the best one to take?

Ifvt isctgat close..alk we kbiwciscthatcanyvskatibgvissuecprobablyvdecidesvit for KD Nd we know Denidov is neither a straight linrcspeed burner and that he does nit use his outer edges to rely on which unless correcyibkecwill cause a wider stance in sjatibgcwhich will open hom up to easier hits to stop hom that he cNnotcavod despite his best in draft ouck-handking...which increases injuryvrisk...already hechad 2 injuries this season.Nit surevif the skating styke caused them or made him more susceptible.. but I think Hawks staff will be debating this risk or if they can correct it

 

[ClydeLee]

Dallas just goes BPA. Most of the time, they don't go off the board. And their picks tend to have projectable size.

2017 - Heiskanen at 3, ranked 3rd on Bob's list. Oettinger at 26, ranked 26 on Bob's list and the consensus best goalie in the draft (also 6'5"). Robertson at 39, ranked 30 on Bob's list.

2019 - They select Thomas Harley 19th overall. He was 17 on Bob's list. Also 6'3", good skater, and an August birthday.

2020 - Mavrik Bourque isn't in the NHL but just had a nasty season in the AHL. Drafted 30th overall, ranked 26 on Bob's list.

2021 - Wyatt Johnston didn't play in his draft so this is one you can give Dallas a ton of credit for because they really did their homework here. Logan Stankoven drafted 47th, ranked 27 on Bob's list. Everyone thought he should've been drafted in the 1st round.

They went off the board in 2022, so we'll see what happens there. No 1st round selection in 2023.

But yeah basically they play it really safe for the most part, and that works in their favor. They don't try to "galaxy brain" their picks like many teams tend to do. They just go for value.

Yeah it's unfortunate, but anyone who knows what KD values can put two and two together.

Pretty sure an athletic or some place had an article how all those Dallas guys had very good NHLe numbers too.

The stat has value but it doesn't do much for judging a player's defensive value

 

[ChiHawks10]

Bader's model is better than your eye test.

Unless it's someone with very little or no hockey experience(watching, playing, coaching, etc) then I'll trust most eye tests over analytics in hockey. Advanced analytics in hockey are pretty f***ing bad, and they will really never get to the point they are at in a sport like baseball. As I've said before, many times, there is too much randomness in the sport for advanced analytics to ever be more than a small tool to use in combination with actual scouting and visually seeing players play.

 

[belfour30]

Unless it's someone with very little or no hockey experience(watching, playing, coaching, etc) then I'll trust most eye tests over analytics in hockey. Advanced analytics in hockey are pretty f***ing bad, and they will really never get to the point they are at in a sport like baseball. As I've said before, many times, there is too much randomness in the sport for advanced analytics to ever be more than a small tool to use in combination with actual scouting and visually seeing players play.

I was picking on Musto

 

[Kevin Musto]

The one position we don’t need, if Dickinson is the pick I don’t know just anymore. I was fine with the trade up to 18, but then that won’t make sense anymore either.

I'm not #TeamDickinson but "need" is irrelevant. He's better than Korchinski.

It's like saying nah I don't want McDavid, I've got Bedard. Different caliber players, obviously, but the point stands.

Just because you have a position of strength, doesn't mean you shouldn't continue to upgrade it.

Pretty sure an athletic or some place had an article how all those Dallas guys had very good NHLe numbers too.

The stat has value but it doesn't do much for judging a player's defensive value

Most players drafted in the 1st round have good NHLe numbers.

All it means is they put up points. Which is something top prospects tend to do.

The metric isn't any more helpful than staring at a stat sheet.

 

[ello]

I’d prefer Dickinson over Levshunov. Higher ceiling to me and if we don’t swing for upside at 2nd overall I’m going to start to doubt KD’s philosophy.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Loving the Dickinson talk lol

 

[clydesdale line]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798439562680963243

Interesting news.

 

[clydesdale line]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798511098964103290

 

[Hawkaholic]

Really starting to warm up to the idea of Cayden Lindstrom if all his injuries check out.

 

[Kevin Musto]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798511098964103290

To Chicago:

-2024 1st round pick (11th overall)

To Buffalo:

-Phillip Kurashev
-2024 2nd round pick (34th overall)

 

[Taze em]

To Chicago:

-2024 1st round pick (11th overall)

To Buffalo:

-Phillip Kurashev
-2024 2nd round pick (34th overall)

Did we ever hear why kurashev was a multi game healthy scratch in the Worlds? Weird.

Sell high or another Hagel. Always been a fan of Kurashev but he’s expendable in the right deal like this.