2024 NHL Draft Thread | No Picks, No Problems

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Vector

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Feb 2, 2007
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Junktown
But you can accomplish the exact same thing by doing a very long player ranking!

Player rankings : have value.
Consensus rankings : have value.

Randomly assigning some Czech defender to some team in the 2nd or 3rd round because that team has 'liked Czechs' in some prior drafts : utterly pointless.

Content farm gotta produce that content!
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
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Vancouver, BC

Doesn't really end with just Russian's. Talent is talent and talent wins hockey games.

When you look at the history of highly talented Russian prospects in the NHL, this stuff matters *a lot*.

Going back through the history of Russian top-10 picks, there are more guys in the Zherdev/Filatov/Kravtsov/Chistov pile of guys whose talent was rendered meaningless by their flakiness and lack of compete than there are in the group that actually made it. Teams are f***ing terrified of taking Russians highly, and justifiably so.
 

ManVanFan

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Mar 28, 2024
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When you look at the history of highly talented Russian prospects in the NHL, this stuff matters *a lot*.

Going back through the history of Russian top-10 picks, there are more guys in the Zherdev/Filatov/Kravtsov/Chistov pile of guys whose talent was rendered meaningless by their flakiness and lack of compete than there are in the group that actually made it. Teams are f***ing terrified of taking Russians highly, and justifiably so.
So you're saying that you shouldn't draft a talented player and let him slide to a "worthy" spot where taking in all those factors is then worth it and possibly to another team?

If they polled NHL GM's how many do you think would pass on Kucherov again?
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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So you're saying that you shouldn't draft a talented player and let him slide to a "worthy" spot where taking in all those factors is then worth it and possibly to another team?

If they polled NHL GM's how many do you think would pass on Kucherov again?

The bust rate on highly talented Russian forwards is WAY higher than from other nations. It's a whole different dynamic. Different mindset, different culture, different priorities, different play style.

Like, these are the Russian forwards taken top-10 since 2005 :

Nikita Filatov
Alex Burmistrov
Nail Yakupov
Alex Galchenyuk
Valeri Nichushkin
Andrei Svechnikov
Vitali Kravtsov
Vasili Podkolzin

Like, for where that group was taken it's f***ing horrible. And just a litany of compete issues and character issues even on the guys who eventually did OK like Galchenyuk and Nichushkin.

And so yeah, it's a big deal if a guy comes over and is really committed to NA, speaks great English, seems like a solid, stable, competitive human being.

Kucherov is a hyper-competitive guy who came over to play NA junior almost right away. And teams want to make sure they're drafting Kucherovs and not Filatovs and Kravtsovs.
 

ManVanFan

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Mar 28, 2024
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The bust rate on highly talented Russian forwards is WAY higher than from other nations. It's a whole different dynamic. Different mindset, different culture, different priorities, different play style.

Like, these are the Russian forwards taken top-10 since 2005 :

Nikita Filatov
Alex Burmistrov
Nail Yakupov
Alex Galchenyuk
Valeri Nichushkin
Andrei Svechnikov
Vitali Kravtsov
Vasili Podkolzin

Like, for where that group was taken it's f***ing horrible. And just a litany of compete issues and character issues even on the guys who eventually did OK like Galchenyuk and Nichushkin.

And so yeah, it's a big deal if a guy comes over and is really committed to NA, speaks great English, seems like a solid, stable, competitive human being.

Kucherov is a hyper-competitive guy who came over to play NA junior almost right away. And teams want to make sure they're drafting Kucherovs and not Filatovs and Kravtsovs.
So you're saying teams should due their due diligence on a prospect. I was listening to a few podcast that were talking about being at the draft combine and it sounded like teams did their due diligence with just about every prospect they interviewed.
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
55,206
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So you're saying teams should due their due diligence on a prospect. I was listening to a few podcast that were talking about being at the draft combine and it sounded like teams did their due diligence with just about every prospect they interviewed.

No, I'm saying it's an extra-big deal with Russian players because a) there is a long history of character/compete/desire to play in NA issues with top Russian prospects and b) since Russia has been banned from international hockey, the contact that NHL teams have with these players has been greatly reduced and the players as people can be a total mystery.

Teams in the top-5 of the draft will have Demidov there but have virtually no feel on whether this is a character guy who wants to be in NA or whether he's a flake like a Zherdev - as compared to a guy like Celebrini who they've been tracking and interviewing for years. And when they finally get to meet him and he comes across really grounded and really wanting to come to the NHL, it's a big deal.

The tweet you quoted was basically saying 'who cares about this stuff, he's a big talent and that's all that matters' and that's just ... wrong.
 

ManVanFan

Registered User
Mar 28, 2024
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No, I'm saying it's an extra-big deal with Russian players because a) there is a long history of character/compete/desire to play in NA issues with top Russian prospects and b) since Russia has been banned from international hockey, the contact that NHL teams have with these players has been greatly reduced and the players as people can be a total mystery.

Teams in the top-5 of the draft will have Demidov there but have virtually no feel on whether this is a character guy who wants to be in NA or whether he's a flake like a Zherdev - as compared to a guy like Celebrini who they've been tracking and interviewing for years. And when they finally get to meet him and he comes across really grounded and really wanting to come to the NHL, it's a big deal.

The tweet you quoted was basically saying 'who cares about this stuff, he's a big talent and that's all that matters' and that's just ... wrong.
Teams doing their due diligence 👍
 

ManVanFan

Registered User
Mar 28, 2024
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567
And again, the original tweet implied that doing due diligence on a player isn't important if a player is 'an incredible talent'.
I can see exactly why Tony was being sarcastic in his tweet.

I'm not trying to be rude or anything here but I also saw your comment about Jfresh cards to me it's really funny and everything we have talked about the past couple weeks just makes more and more sense about the way you think.
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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Vancouver, BC
I can see exactly why Tony was being sarcastic in his tweet.

I'm not trying to be rude or anything here but I also saw your comment about Jfresh cards to me it's really funny and everything we have talked about the past couple weeks just makes more and more sense about the way you think.

Huh?

The original tweet was mocking teams for doing due diligence and being impressed when they finally got to meet a person who was a mystery to them. It was implying that it didn't matter because 'he's an incredible talent'.

It was a dumb tweet that simply didn't grasp the history of Russian players or the current situation around Russian players and why this might be important.

So yes, both this and Jfresh cards are dumb takes from people who don't seem to understand hockey.
 

ManVanFan

Registered User
Mar 28, 2024
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567
Huh?

The original tweet was mocking teams for doing due diligence and being impressed when they finally got to meet a person who was a mystery to them. It was implying that it didn't matter because 'he's an incredible talent'.

It was a dumb tweet that simply didn't grasp the history of Russian players or the current situation around Russian players and why this might be important.

So yes, both this and Jfresh cards are dumb takes from people who don't seem to understand hockey.
😆
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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Vancouver, BC
Born in Wisconsin to Belarussian parents.

But moved back to Russia at age 4 when his dad returned there to play and spent most of his time in Russia/Belarus until he was 14.

He and Provorov (came to NA at age 12 or 13) are kind of in a middle ground.
 

Szechwan

Registered User
Sep 13, 2006
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I was so she Filatov was going to be a beast. I was also sure about Gilbert Brule.

I'm not sure if I'm an awful talent evaluator or just underestimated the black hole that was Columbus back then.
 

Vector

Moderator
Feb 2, 2007
26,419
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Junktown
Someone tell me about Kenta Isogai. Nearly 20 years old, had a tonne of production in his first year in the WHL, and 5'11 but only 154lbs. EP has him as a 6-7th round pick but is surprisingly high on him. Calls him hyper aggressive and a good skater.
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
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Vancouver, BC

Sounds like a perfect partner long term for Hughes.

If we had our 1st he’d be right at the very top of my list at #25 but there’s no way in hell he’s there in the 3rd round.

Someone tell me about Kenta Isogai. Nearly 20 years old, had a tonne of production in his first year in the WHL, and 5'11 but only 154lbs. EP has him as a 6-7th round pick but is surprisingly high on him. Calls him hyper aggressive and a good skater.

I’d say average skater? But clever player who goes to the dirty areas. Nice puck handler/playmaker. Looks shorter/stockier than his listed weight so maybe a really old measurement?

Another example of ‘I can’t figure out USHL scoring’ as his production exploded this year while theoretically in a tougher league.

Best Japanese-trained prospect ever by a mile.
 

ManVanFan

Registered User
Mar 28, 2024
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If we had our 1st he’d be right at the very top of my list at #25 but there’s no way in hell he’s there in the 3rd round.
Do you mean 28th? Split on a lot of scouting services on him. Anywhere from 16-45 split it in the middle is probably where he is drafted ha. Although I could see him going at 21 or 22 or 23.
 
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Vector

Moderator
Feb 2, 2007
26,419
44,119
Junktown
Do you mean 28th? Split on a lot of scouting services on him. Anywhere from 16-45 split it in the middle is probably where he is drafted ha. Although I could see him going at 21 or 22 or 23.

Yeah he has a late-1st or early 2nd round evaluation but it’s possible a team jumps the gun and takes him early like the Flyers and Bonk last draft.
 

Vector

Moderator
Feb 2, 2007
26,419
44,119
Junktown
Talk of teams jumping up for a lot of the D in this draft.


Listening to these guys talk about a mock. 4 guys with a lot of NHL sources.

Yeah, it happens every year. MS and I talked a lot about it last year and it's why we were sure that Reinbacher and Willander were going to climb the charts and a run of defenceman are going to go earlier than projected. Especially right shot guys. Pronman is one of the few draft evaluators that has realized NHL team tendencies.
 

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