2024 IIHF Division IB

[SoundAndFury]

Though in seriousness NL probably a bit fortunate to still only be 2-1 down... Lithuania though still having some problems as they did last year threatening the net?

I think it's the mix of simply not having many offensive players and our coach not being a fan of adventurous game. Which I don't mind, it worked well to a degree against the teams like Korea. Hard to watch against teams like NL or Spain though.

 

[SoundAndFury]

I would be highly surprised if LTU is able to compete UKR.

I said today we have 5% chance because the Armalis factor. We won games against GB back in the day, for example, we had no business winning. But I don't think literally anyone expects more than that. Just give our best shot and hope for the best, obviously Ukraine is the much better team.

 

[ozo]

I said today we have 5% chance because the Armalis factor. We won games against GB back in the day, for example, we had no business winning. But I don't think literally anyone expects more than that. Just give our best shot and hope for the best, obviously Ukraine is the much better team.

5% seems about right because this Ukraine is too deep for 1B. Tournament is 3 games old and only 2 players outside goalies ( who are yet to concede by the way) have not registered a point. Without factchecking that's absurd and unheard off at any international level. Shoutout to Merezhko, he is a pure animal at this point of his career.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Shoutout to Merezhko, he is a pure animal at this point of his career.

..not if you saw the Slovak league finals..

Having said that, if Ukraine goes up and Romania goes down, that's really how it should have been ever since the whole covid/war mess. And I guess it's Korea's turn to go down next year.

 

[aquaregia]

What are Ukraine doing lmao, 1-0 down to Spain and but for the post saving them Zaballa could have made it 2!

 

[aquaregia]

...and that's a pretty tragic way for Spain to concede after playing some brilliant defence for the past half an hour and more.

 

[Sanf]

...and that's a pretty tragic way for Spain to concede after playing some brilliant defence for the past half an hour and more.

Yeah I was just about to credit Spain for playing to games of very disciplined defence for 5 periods against better opponents. They are not giving many quality shots for opponents.

 

[ozo]

Spain indeed is a surprisingly tough cookie to crack in this tournament.

 

[trust no one]

@Mrzli - are you watching UKR - ESP game ? If you are, then you can see why I say Croatia is chanceless next year in D1B.

No chance we can play 1:1 with Ukraine after 40 minutes.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

This is the worst case of small sample falacy I have seen recently. As good as Chen is, he isn't finishing the tournament with .98 Sv%. Just like Rooba isn't finishing it at 0,5 PPG. Or Molder, who is clearly 2nd best goalie in the entire field, with .73 Sv%. If anything, absolutely everything you listed points to how hard one team is bound to bounce back while the other is to regress.

Also while the difference between the Netherlands and Lithuania isn't that great, for the fifth time, this a third string Netherlands roster. There is no need to twist facts to make Chinese wins into more than they actually are.

Haven't followed Dutch hockey since nearly coaching there in the mid-2000's.

Why are they sending a C roster to the World Championship?

 

[trust no one]

Haven't followed Dutch hockey since nearly coaching there in the mid-2000's.

Why are they sending a C roster to the World Championship?

This is post from @SoundAndFury on page 2

The Netherlands is one of those rare places where one club, Tilburg, holds more power than the hockey federation itself so my guess is they discouraged players from going or players themselves sort of agreed not to go to this pointless tournament. Winning the Oberliga does so much more to hockey there than any possible result the Dutch team can viably achieve in D1B which is a funny situation, state of hockey in the country is better reflected by the results of one club than their NT. And that probably created a trickle-down effect with those few other players outside the Tilburg organization who probably thought it to be pointless to accompany this bunch of cereal eaters.

 

[jonas2244]

It's a shame, really. Netherlands have theoretically the potential to be around Slovenia, Hungary, Poland in terms of upside whith some solid development, of course some money and commitment to the National Team.

I saw that HC Porto joined the Spanish leage this year with some interesting players like Oskars Bartulis or Ronald Wurm. Looks like some sort of Latvian project. But would be cool if it would last.

Ukraine makes no prisoners in the 3rd period, so it's probably decided in the last game on Friday who goes up.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Regarding the Netherlands, announcers on Lithuanian TV also said the coaches were visibly upset at the players who refused to play. Considering Mason is also Tilburg's head coach, this could also be some airing of grievances between players and their coach.

 

[SoundAndFury]

It has to be said though, for the personnel they have, Dutch perform very admirably. Even if respect in the handshake line doesn't get you far, they deserve it.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Probably the most onesided 2-0 game I have seen so far. Not even actually sure how China managed 15 shots, they just sit in the D zone.

 

[jonas2244]

Probably the most onesided 2-0 game I have seen so far. Not even actually sure how China managed 15 shots, they just sit in the D zone.

Hm, Canada - Switzerland Olympics 2006.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Yeah, China is just.. D2A team in disguise, really. Just got lucky on the scoreboard in the games against the other D2A teams. Now Estonians just need to get their shit together and perform above that level.

 

[Albatros]

Having NHL-level coaching is more than just luck though, we've seen China do well in multiple categories this year and a better overall structure appears to be the main reason behind that. From game one they never were a relegation candidate in Division I and they fully earned that achievement, even a bronze medal is now a 50-50 affair before the final game. Quite frankly they have done a whole lot more to earn that so far than Estonia, and luck has nothing to do with that.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Having NHL-level coaching is more than just luck though, we've seen China do well in multiple categories this year and a better overall structure appears to be the main reason behind that. From game one they never were a relegation candidate in Division I and they fully earned that achievement, even a bronze medal is now a 50-50 affair before the final game. Quite frankly they have done a whole lot more to earn that so far than Estonia, and luck has nothing to do with that.

Luck has nothing to do with it as long as you expect to win evenly played games against equal opposition 7-1... I don't see why is there such a point of contention about it. The same thing happened to China against the Netherlands last year, only in an even worse way and the shoe was on the other foot.

You can and we should all credit China for getting the result they needed in the games they had a chance to win but the "real" D1B teams completely outmatched them. Netherlands and Spain actually performed far better against both Ukraine and Lithuania. And hey, I don't doubt being in the same pack with Serbia, Croatia, Spain, etc. is great progress to the Chinese domestic program, but I don't get this wish to lump them with the countries with actual pro players. You can just see the talent level is not there.

If they get hemmed into their zone for 30 minutes by Lithuania with "NHL-level" coaching what is the talent level of their individual players? And the Estonia game won't change that, I mean China somehow finished 3rd last year with almost a KHL-level team so Estonia finishing 4th surely would be no shock but, with all things being equal, they have the team 2 steps above China. Because I do believe, just like bookmakers did, just like conventional logic would dictate, Estonia has almost just as strong a team as we (Lithuania) do.

 

[Albatros]

I think the expectation is to stay in Division 1, and that was achieved as early as possible. I see no team in Division 2 that could do more to challenge them than the opposition they've been facing now.

If in your opinion only Lithuania is a "real" D1B team then sure. Ukraine is better than that and the others are all worse. Though Lithuania only scored 3 goals against China at home despite that possession, and the last of them was an inconsequential final second penalty shot. Could just as well have been a 2:1 hockey game if China got one of their 15 shots in. There's no next Kharlamov coming from China, but they play a disciplined team game most nights and the only team with transitions good enough to expose them has been Ukraine. At this level that's enough. Estonia may have talented individuals, but as a team they're trailing up until now. Maybe they'll impress tomorrow, it's their final chance to do so.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Of course everyone is free to set such boundaries but usually D1B was marked by teams having a mix of professional and semi-professional players. Countries like Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Korea (without imports), the Netherlands, Ukraine pretty much always fit this description. Croatia made a feature when they finally naturalized some pros. To progress to D1A you would usually need a fully professional team like GB, Poland or Korea (with imports) would usually attempt to have.

These are the lines that maped out the differences between divisions to me. Even if recent events shook things up a lot, they still remain true to me because at some point the world will come back to it and that's what the teams should strive for to get to the next level. China, as it is now, has very few players that would actually make it at the lowest level of European pro hockey.

Some of your arguments barely make any sense. Like:

staying in 1B "achieved as early as possible". So we are applauding the team for having a favorable schedule at the start now? Or acting like it's not the schedule that decided this?

" I see no team in Division 2 that could do more to challenge them than the opposition they've been facing now" - you don't see the Netherlands with 20 of their best players present challenging China more? You don't see Croatia with Katic, Rendulic, Idzan brothers etc. challenging China more? So what are you basing these assesments on?

Yes China was a good, disciplined team. And Estonia only lost to Ukraine 5-3 in a very close game in the OGQ only few months ago. And we finished 3rd in D1A 2 years ago. That's not how the strength of hockey country is measured though, is it? It's determined by a foundation it has for a continuos success and how is China doing there?

"Could just as well have been a 2:1 hockey game if China got one of their 15 shots in." - Yes and China could have lost both games against Spain and Netherlands since they got outshot in both. You either accept that was just likely as them scoring against Lithuania or your whole argument here is redundant.

 

[FourQuarters]

Of course everyone is free to set such boundaries but usually D1B was marked by teams having a mix of professional and semi-professional players. Countries like Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Korea (without imports), the Netherlands, Ukraine pretty much always fit this description. Croatia made a feature when they finally naturalized some pros. To progress to D1A you would usually need a fully professional team like GB, Poland or Korea (with imports) would usually attempt to have.

These are the lines that maped out the differences between divisions to me. Even if recent events shook things up a lot, they still remain true to me because at some point the world will come back to it and that's what the teams should strive for to get to the next level. China, as it is now, has very few players that would actually make it at the lowest level of European pro hockey.

Some of your arguments barely make any sense. Like:

staying in 1B "achieved as early as possible". So we are applauding the team for having a favorable schedule at the start now? Or acting like it's not the schedule that decided this?

" I see no team in Division 2 that could do more to challenge them than the opposition they've been facing now" - you don't see the Netherlands with 20 of their best players present challenging China more? You don't see Croatia with Katic, Rendulic, Idzan brothers etc. challenging China more? So what are you basing these assesments on?

Yes China was a good, disciplined team. And Estonia only lost to Ukraine 5-3 in a very close game in the OGQ only few months ago. And we finished 3rd in D1A 2 years ago. That's not how the strength of hockey country is measured though, is it? It's determined by a foundation it has for a continuos success and how is China doing there?

"Could just as well have been a 2:1 hockey game if China got one of their 15 shots in." - Yes and China could have lost both games against Spain and Netherlands since they got outshot in both. You either accept that was just likely as them scoring against Lithuania or your whole argument here is redundant.

If you don't think a team that stays in the D1B division doesn't fit "your idea" of a D1B team, it just means the hockey world isn't what you thought it was anymore. I don't think Team China is that strong this year, maybe none of Chinese fans thought they could avoid relegation before the tournament started, but if you look at how many games for kids there are in China now, if you know that China will build up a national league next season, maybe it's unfair to talk about the "foundation".
Btw It's sad to see that you can't even argue with someone who is usually against Chinese hockey.

 

[SoundAndFury]

If you don't think a team that stays in the D1B division doesn't fit "your idea" of a D1B team, it just means the hockey world isn't what you thought it was anymore. I don't think Team China is that strong this year, maybe none of Chinese fans thought they could avoid relegation before the tournament started, but if you look at how many games for kids there are in China now, if you know that China will build up a national league next season, maybe it's unfair to talk about the "foundation".
Btw It's sad to see that you can't even argue with someone who is usually against Chinese hockey.

Foundation is usually marked by upcoming prospects, results of U18 and U20 teams and such. While what you said is nice and important to have, in terms of foreseeable results it's just pie in the sky.

Also not sure what are you sad about, I think we are arguing fairly successfully.

 

[garbageteam]

I think this whole debate will be kind of settled at least for now if we observe how China plays vs. Estonia tomorrow.

 

[aquaregia]

I don't really see what's controversial about saying that a team almost entirely consisting of players born and raised in China beating Estonia would be an upset.

Just as it would have been if Spain or the Netherlands had won against them; even Estonia playing poorly managed to pull out the victory in the end in both cases, and imo it would take both that sam poor standard of Estonia's play and China raising their game/ getting similar luck as in their game v Netherlands to be in with a chance.