2024 IIHF Division IB

[SoundAndFury]

So IB also starts today. China is local players only, Netherlands seem to be actively discouraging players to represent them since this is their B if not C roster and Spain is, well, Spain. So in the end that separates the division into 3 fairly competitive teams (Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia) and 3 who probably shouldn't even be there.

Ukraine is the big favorite and then there is us and Estonia looking to maybe get a lucky win against them. Frankly lucky about Chinese decision because losing to them on home ice would be hard to take.

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[tornaado66]

Frankly lucky about Chinese decision because losing to them on home ice would be hard to take.

I know what you are afraid of. We managed to get a loss for the history books against them last year on home ice.

 

[Pardus]

I was in Tondiraba last year watching that Estonia - China game. Still the atmosphere was awesome.

Estonia has one the best rosters ever, so tonight they have a great chance to get the best start for this tournament and one step closer to get promoted.

Let's go, Pääsukesed!

 

[Albatros]

So IB also starts today. China is local players only, Netherlands seem to be actively discouraging players to represent them since this is their B if not C roster and Spain is, well, Spain. So in the end that separates the division into 3 fairly competitive teams (Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia) and 3 who probably shouldn't even be there.

Ukraine is the big favorite and then there is us and Estonia looking to maybe get a lucky win against them. Frankly lucky about Chinese decision because losing to them on home ice would be hard to take.

They still have a handful of players from North America, but not Kunlun legionnaires like before. They played at the PRC Winter Games representing Beijing last August and humiliated some other provinces quite thoroughly.

At the National Championships in November the Kunlun players weren't there anymore but Beijing won comfortably regardless.

Now the Beijing Hockey Association team is supposed to join the new summertime semi-pro IJ League in Japan at least for the first preliminary tour and forms by and large the national team as well, much like Kunlun did before.

 

[jonas2244]

And they start with a solid win vs. the Netherlands. A pretty young team and it seems there is at least some progress in skill level.

 

[SoundAndFury]

And they start with a solid win vs. the Netherlands. A pretty young team and it seems there is at least some progress in skill level.

Like I mentioned in the OP, this Dutch team had 4-5 players who would make their best team in depth roles so it's doesn't really mean a lot. I guess it does showcase somewhat that they would be competitive in D2A because that's what the level of today's game was. Dutch brought a semi-pro team with a few pro-ish players sprinkled in.

 

[Albatros]

Meanwhile they also only have 3 teams in the BeNe League, down from 10 only a few years ago.

 

[jonas2244]

Yeah, but nevertheless, I don't think that a few years ago they would be able to beat that Dutch team.

 

[ozo]

Lithuanian NT playing in red colors is a crime against eyes. Solid shutout win, Armalis made couple of nice saves.

 

[jonas2244]

I think Raul Barbo wants those two goals back.

Spain is playing and China is scoring. Stephen Cheng plays really solid, tough.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Didn't see the China game and the result is a bit scary. Who are these guys?

Regarding Lithuania game, Estonia was just shocking. Scored a goal which shouldn't have counted, wasted one moment where they should have scored and that was that. Good job for us to basically not take any penalties but even that is partially because nobody forced us into taking those.

Also this championship just showcases further how completely boneheadish the selection last year was.

 

[Albatros]

Very clear promotion and relegation groups after two games. Tuesday's matchups could potentially go a long way deciding it all already.

 

[Eye of Ra]

Like I mentioned in the OP, this Dutch team had 4-5 players who would make their best team in depth roles so it's doesn't really mean a lot. I guess it does showcase somewhat that they would be competitive in D2A because that's what the level of today's game was. Dutch brought a semi-pro team with a few pro-ish players sprinkled in.

Who are they missing?

 

[SoundAndFury]

Who are they missing?

Guus van Nes who is their best player at this point, Nardo Nagtzaam and almost entire Tilburg roster. Out of top-5 BeNe League scorers they also only have one. Actually shorter list would be guys who would make their A team.

Very clear promotion and relegation groups after two games. Tuesday's matchups could potentially go a long way deciding it all already.

Are you saying Estonia is in relegation group? They can easily still win bronze, certainly that is what they should and are expected to do.

 

[Eye of Ra]

Guus van Nes who is their best player at this point, Nardo Nagtzaam and almost entire Tilburg roster. Out of top-5 BeNe League scorers they also only have one. Actually shorter list would be guys who would make their A team.


Are you saying Estonia is in relegation group? They can easily still win bronze, certainly that is what they should and are expected to do.

Mike Dalhuisen (D)?

 

[Albatros]

Are you saying Estonia is in relegation group? They can easily still win bronze, certainly that is what they should and are expected to do.

They are now, beating both Spain and the Netherlands won't be worth more than 6 points, which the top 3 teams have already. Left is China who got solid results against both, maybe the scoreboard flatters them but you also don't score 10 goals against same tier teams accidentally. Of course Estonia can still overtake them, but it's an uphill battle at this point.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Mike Dalhuisen (D)?

Sure, and Daniel Sprong too

The last time Dalhuisen played in WC was 2012, so his absence seems slightly.. permanent.

They are now, beating both Spain and the Netherlands won't be worth more than 6 points, which the top 3 teams have already. Left is China who got solid results against both, maybe the scoreboard flatters them but you also don't score 10 goals against same tier teams accidentally. Of course Estonia can still overtake them, but it's an uphill battle at this point.

It's not rocket science, Estonia played against 2 strongest teams while the weak teams gained points by playing each other. If we were to project the results before the tournament, Estonia having 0 points and one of the "weak" teams having 6 was the most likely scenario. The only thing that has changed so that now we know the "x" team is China. 10 points is nice and all but they played against teams that would have a hard time winning D2A. Calling Ukraine and Spain same-tier teams is like calling Canada and Kazakhstan same-tier teams. Technically correct but...

Undoubtedly Estonia will get all 6 points against Spain and the Netherlands as well so it all boils down to Estonia - China game where if one thinks China is the favorite, after looking at both rosters, I'd say that person is crazy.

We know what level top Chinese players are, we know what level top Estonian players are, we know China scored 7 goals on 30 shots against Spain in the game they were outshot in. We know Chinese college goalie who actually doesn't play any games for his college is sitting at .983 Sv%. Those aren't a maybe, they are unsustainable by any quantifiable metric. While China is obviously in great shape, let's not act like they faced any real tests or that the games they played were truly impressive beneath the most superficial level.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Believe he is not draft eligible until 2025 but is there anything to see in Lithuania 17-year-old Simonas Valivonis?

I'd imagine he's be playing at a higher level of junior hockey or in a men's league if there was NHL interest but playing for his nation's national team - even at a lower level - makes me curious about his long-term potential.

 

[SoundAndFury]

I'd imagine he's be playing at a higher level of junior hockey or in a men's league if there was NHL interest but playing for his nation's national team - even at a lower level - makes me curious about his long-term potential.

I assume you meant him being on the team last year. There were pretty ugly nepotism-related rumors about his completely ridiculous selection that I'm not going to name because I cannot confirm those but since those were by far the best explanation for why he was on that team it's probably true.

He is nothing too special therefore not on the team this year. Our best defensive prospect is probably Algirdas Jaras, although he sadly has made little progress since last year. Valivonis, meanwhile, I doubt I would rank him in the top 10 of our U20s.

 

[Albatros]

It's not rocket science, Estonia played against 2 strongest teams while the weak teams gained points by playing each other. If we were to project the results before the tournament, Estonia having 0 points and one of the "weak" teams having 6 was the most likely scenario. The only thing that has changed so that now we know the "x" team is China. 10 points is nice and all but they played against teams that would have a hard time winning D2A. Calling Ukraine and Spain same-tier teams is like calling Canada and Kazakhstan same-tier teams. Technically correct but...

Undoubtedly Estonia will get all 6 points against Spain and the Netherlands as well so it all boils down to Estonia - China game where if one thinks China is the favorite, after looking at both rosters, I'd say that person is crazy.

We know what level top Chinese players are, we know what level top Estonian players are, we know China scored 7 goals on 30 shots against Spain in the game they were outshot in. We know Chinese college goalie who actually doesn't play any games for his college is sitting at .983 Sv%. Those aren't a maybe, they are unsustainable by any quantifiable metric. While China is obviously in great shape, let's not act like they faced any real tests or that the games they played were truly impressive beneath the most superficial level.

Rather I referred to China proving their quality scoring 10:1 goals against Spain and the Netherlands, while Estonia conceded 1:14 against Ukraine and Lithuania. There's certainly a large gap between Ukraine and Spain, between the Netherlands and Lithuania less so. Estonia does have good players on their roster, but names alone don't win games. Their heavy lifters Rooba and Kombe are -6 so far, with one assist each.

I'm sure you remember Chen from U20 as Lithuania was in the same group, he was the main reason why China avoided relegation there. Faced an insane amount of shots against but kept the scores civil and in the end they beat a three-way tie based on goal difference. Here too after two games he already has 18 more saves than anyone else. No ice time in college (he'd be the youngest goalie in the entire NCAA if he did play) clearly doesn't mean he's cold or lacks sufficient quality at this level. Of course doesn't mean .983 is nearly sustainable, but against the likes of Mölder or Koitmaa he has nothing to be afraid of.

 

[SoundAndFury]

This is the worst case of small sample falacy I have seen recently. As good as Chen is, he isn't finishing the tournament with .98 Sv%. Just like Rooba isn't finishing it at 0,5 PPG. Or Molder, who is clearly 2nd best goalie in the entire field, with .73 Sv%. If anything, absolutely everything you listed points to how hard one team is bound to bounce back while the other is to regress.

Also while the difference between the Netherlands and Lithuania isn't that great, for the fifth time, this a third string Netherlands roster. There is no need to twist facts to make Chinese wins into more than they actually are.

 

[Albatros]

No doubt China will "regress" today against Ukraine, it's just the Estonia bouncing back with three straight wins part that I'm unsure about at this point. Their performance has been weak even relative to whom they were playing and while winning the right games absolutely is enough, they really need significant improvement overnight to get there.

 

[aquaregia]

Just tuned in and to the surprise of not too many China are getting an absolute battering early doors.

Double figures on if the Ukrainians can keep this up.

 

[SoundAndFury]

they really need significant improvement overnight to get there.

I sort of came to expect it in these championships, far too many times the team that seemed to be the heavy favorite based on their play going into relegation/promotion games just completely flops. Not to mention Estonia now has two games to get them going.

Meanwhile, China concedes 3 against Ukraine in 12 minutes.

 

[aquaregia]

Absolutely no idea how to deal with the physicality of Ukraine's attack, this scoreline could get very, very ugly for China.