As I reflect back upon my draft prep this year, I find that I like this draft much more than I did a few months ago. I'm glad to discuss any of this in more depth, or thoughts on particular players, but this should provide bit of color.
This is what I like:
- Celebrini is exceptional; I'd rank him at a level similar to Eichel, which would make him roughly 4/5th best prospect in last 10 drafts (after McDavid, Bedard, and Matthewes),
- There are 8 defensemen who I anticipate becoming at least solid top 4D, which is one of the real strengths of this class.
- There are another 11 defensemen who I could see becoming solid top 4D, several of whom could be available deep into 2nd.
- The number of bigger prospects (6'2" or so and 200lbs) with skill feels much higher than most years.
This is where I think this draft is lacking:
- The forward talent in the 2-8 range of the draft feels light. Said another way, how many forwards in this draft would you rank higher (at time of draft) than where Dvo was last year? I can see arguments for a few, but nobody that I would say absolutely yes. And I definitely wouldn't take any of these forwards before Will Smith.
- While there are lots of defensemen that I like as potential top 4 guys, I think there are legit questions on basically all of them as to whether any are truly high-end #1 guys.
Basically, after Celebrini I see huge drop, because each of the next 18 guys have fairly significant questions. Some it is size (Catton, Buium), some injury (Lindstrom), some upside (MBN). I feel good about picking 16 because we will get really good prospect, but it's not going to be a guy wihout risk.
The tier after that features either guys with huge upside but are really green or have major questions (Freij, Jiricek, Brunicke, Fischer) or safer guys who look to top out as middle pairing (if they hit), like Danford, Elick, or Badinka. If we could get 2 from this tier to mitigate the risk, that might be a good path.
Once you get outiside of top 50 or so I haven't seen as much of some of those guys, but I'm confident that I haven't unintentionally omitted anyone from my top 3 tiers. There may well be guys who go lower (LSW, Hemming, etc.. ) who end up being much better than I anticipate, but that was a choice. Seeing only a bit of Uljanskis isn't why he is 92, I just wasn't that impressed.
And I don't want Connelly. Yes, he has 1st round talent. I debated leaving him off entirely, so his actual ranking doesn't reflect his talent level but factors in that I don't think he is guy you want on your team (based on perceived maturity/attitude issues, not any one incident) but if he uses this as wake-up call and matures I'd be willing to consider him. So I discounted him considerably.
I think your spot on with the direction of the draft and appreciate your list. Here are a few thoughts
to further any discussions.
--Potentially, we could see 10 D drafted in the first round and another 10 or more in the second.
Regardless of potential or safety the Blues should be in position to select two D men out of their
first 3 picks. That's a good thing.
--For the Blues I hope they stay away from Connelly as well as Eiserman. Connelly has been
discussed, and the only thing I will add to that is we aren't privy to team interviews etc. Eiserman
if available might be good for a trade, but I just don't see him as a Blue. I will also add Greentree
because of his skating.
--All drafts are different and to me, I look at the draft in front of us not in comparison to others.
That's just my simple way to look at the present prospects. However, I don't discount past drafts
or future prospects in looking at how teams actually build through the draft.
--Traditionally, I would prefer D prospects or Centers over Forwards if all a grouped in the same tier. To me they are much more of a tradable asset . Also, it's important to look at prospects that
are built for playoff hockey. Those that give effort, have size, play a 200 foot game, and are just
hard to play against. ( Surin, Miettinen, O'Reilly, Bednarik) I am not discounting hockey IQ , skill,
and scoring as they are premium. However, I look at prospects that can make an NHL roster and
play 300 games or so barring injury. Regardless of what line they play on. A selected prospect
is an asset and teams hope to stay away from a ( Bokk, Vanneli, Rattie, McRae). That's easier said
than done right?
--D men for me are harder to predict. Will they will add size and strength? Will they develop any sort of offense? Will they get better defensively ? Will they improve their first pass? It's kind of a contradiction, but the best way is to add a solid D man who can eat minutes with a offensively minded Dman that can skate. Nothing new here as far as pairing in the NHL, but let's not loose sight of this when drafting. For sure in this draft, take one potential and one safety, getting one of each in this draft.
-- I don't think that we will have just an Alex Steen pick . Steen to me is on board with the team and process that the Blues have right now. Certainly, he will have had input if a European player is selected, but respectfully it's a organizational decision and process..
--Every draft year I look at prospects I think that are Blues picks. I try to check my personal favorites and those I don't like to avoid some disappointment. At #16 if available my Blues tier
would be ( MBN, Solberg, Sennecke). If all three are gone, Freij. Freij over Emery as his puck moving and skating are there. To much improving potential to ignore. At both #48 and 56, my group is in no particular order ( Gill, Shuravin, Fisher, Meittinen, Mustard, Skahan, Brunicke, Masse,
Kleber, Muggli ).
