Pre-Game Talk: 2024 Draft Thread

[STL fan in MN]

Just noticed that SJ actually had one of their numbers picked the first 3 times they did the ping pong balls. That’s never happened before.

 

[kimzey59]

Help me understand your fascination with Eliasson. I just don’t see it with him. He’s big and has a mean streak but in terms of actual ability to play hockey, I don’t see much. What skills does he have that should translate well to the NHL?

He’s massive. He has a mean streak and he can skate really well for his size. If he can learn to play better defense, I could see him developing into a beast of a shut down defender. There’s a few shades of Chara in that package(total boom or bust type, but I can see it if I squint).

 

[bleedblue1223]

Most years I would tend to agree with bleedblue but there really does seem to be a cutoff in the 12-15 range this year.

There’s 13 players I really like (the 15 McKenzie listed minus Eiserman and Connelly) and I’ll be a little surprised if any of those 13 are available at pick 16.

I agree with the cut-off, but I always bank on an inept franchise making an inept decision.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I agree with the cut-off, but I always bank on an inept franchise making an inept decision.

I guess we’ll find out in late June. If that cutoff will hold true will be one of the main storylines I’ll be following.

Others include:
•will any Swedes be taken in the 1st round?
•where will Eiserman land?
•how far will Connelly fall?

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

He’s massive. He has a mean streak and he can skate really well for his size. If he can learn to play better defense, I could see him developing into a beast of a shut down defender. There’s a few shades of Chara in that package(total boom or bust type, but I can see it if I squint).

Boston took Kostadinski last year

 

[ezcreepin]

I have only seen one ranking that had Freij as a very late 1st rounder. Most have him anywhere from mid 2nd to early 3rd. I just think taking him at 16 would be a massive reach but very real possibility with our early 2nd.

I think these past few years have shown an inclination to reach for some players, but that is primarily because of covid and the uncertainty of players in general. Four years away from it, I think the rankings are probably much more clear and I am leaning towards agreeing with the draft rankings, specifically from McKenzie (others agree though). If the Blues want to reach a bit, then I would trade down/up for a late 1st to grab Freij. No sense in wasting a 16th overall pick for a guy who will likely go 10 spots after that, if not more.

 

[ezcreepin]

think back to last year. nobody had willander as more than late 1st. lindstein was thought to be 2nd. after u18 @PerryTurnbullfan and i and some others were shouting from hilltops on them. i expect you are going to see freij, emery, and brunicke start showing up on lots of folks' 1st round projections going forward. each of these 3 really helped themselves at u18. it's such a great showcase for d, because top teams will expose you if you have key flaws, but if you can show that you can step up and even impose your will over course of event, scouts take notice.

I wish I could find the rankings easily, but McKenzie had Willander going 20th, so he moved up 9 spots. I don't know the Canucks forward depth, but obviously they wanted more defenseman to accompany Hughes on the backend. Lindstein was ranked 26th(?) and got picked 29th. Fairly accurate from Bob. As I stated in a previous post, I'm more inclined to take Bob's rankings more seriously, so unless someone really reaches for Freij, I would think he'll go in the final few picks in the 1st for the first few in the 2nd. If anything, I think Freij would end up where Lindstein did just based on their play both in the Swedish league and international tournaments. Lindstein got recognition for his play in the WJ, but he was also playing in the SHL which says a lot about his play, whereas Freij did not, but scored at a higher clip.

I'm really not sure why people put such faith in scouting services as if they're some infallible draft guide. Especially this upcoming draft where it's Celebrini and then your guess is as good as mine at 2nd overall.

Hey remember scouting guru Jarmo Kekalainen? The guy who was going to draft us to a better team? Yeah my personal picks at those first two selections in that 2006 draft were better than his and I'm just some schmuck on the internet. I wanted Backstrom at No1 (unquestionably a better pick than EJ). At 31st I wanted Cal Clutterbuck and he didn't go off the board until Minnesota took him 72nd overall in the 3rd Rd. He has since gone on to play 1,064 NHL games for two teams over the course of 17 seasons. That's quite a bit better than Tomas Kana who did absolutely nothing at the NHL level.

Is this my long winded way of saying I'm some kind of elite talent scout? Nope, my point is these lists are all just speculation and somebodies arbitrary ranking. If you're putting forth an argument that so and so is BPA my first question is, "According to who?". BPA could be a different guy for each of the 32 teams so where does that leave us?

At this point scouting services have a lot of tools to evaluate players. I think given ample time, they could project them with high accuracy, but there's a ton of kids to evaluate and look over. In the case of people who make rankings like McKenzie, Button, and even elite prospects, they're doing a lot of work and talking with scouts to get an overall view of players, while some also interject their own thoughts to their rankings. The reason why there's so much faith from fans put into the scouting services is generally they are correct where players will end up on the board.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I wish I could find the rankings easily, but McKenzie had Willander going 20th, so he moved up 9 spots. I don't know the Canucks forward depth, but obviously they wanted more defenseman to accompany Hughes on the backend. Lindstein was ranked 26th(?) and got picked 29th. Fairly accurate from Bob. As I stated in a previous post, I'm more inclined to take Bob's rankings more seriously, so unless someone really reaches for Freij, I would think he'll go in the final few picks in the 1st for the first few in the 2nd. If anything, I think Freij would end up where Lindstein did just based on their play both in the Swedish league and international tournaments. Lindstein got recognition for his play in the WJ, but he was also playing in the SHL which says a lot about his play, whereas Freij did not, but scored at a higher clip.


At this point scouting services have a lot of tools to evaluate players. I think given ample time, they could project them with high accuracy, but there's a ton of kids to evaluate and look over. In the case of people who make rankings like McKenzie, Button, and even elite prospects, they're doing a lot of work and talking with scouts to get an overall view of players, while some also interject their own thoughts to their rankings. The reason why there's so much faith from fans put into the scouting services is generally they are correct where players will end up on the board.

I think those were maybe Bob’s final rankings, which haven’t been released yet this year. His pre lottery rankings only went 12 deep. Those d were late risers last year. And this year I expect we see these d start showing up in folks’ 1st round projections.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I think those were maybe Bob’s final rankings, which haven’t been released yet this year. His pre lottery rankings only went 12 deep. Those d were late risers last year. And this year I expect we see these d start showing up in folks’ 1st round projections.

I have it charted from last year on a spreadsheet. Be easy to pull up. The most accurate mock came from Cam Robinson of elite prospects.

 

[ezcreepin]

I think those were maybe Bob’s final rankings, which haven’t been released yet this year. His pre lottery rankings only went 12 deep. Those d were late risers last year. And this year I expect we see these d start showing up in folks’ 1st round projections.

Ahh gotcha. I don’t doubt a guy like Freij will move up from a strong WJ, I just wonder if it’s enough to move him from early to mid 2nd round to 16-24 in the first

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I think the difference on where break falls in prospects is 2 things.

1. Non-traditional prospects. Hage and boisvert are Canadians playing in ushl. They are underhyped and didn’t make team Canada for u18. I think they have legit top 6 upside, maybe even at c, that is overlooked. Similarly the Norwegian kid playing in Sweden is likely being slept on and looks like top 6 winger that probably should be in top tier.

2. D who don’t put up huge points are underrated. Brunicke is bit of late bloomer who was awesome at u18 but his chl stats are mid. Freij split pp time with lsw and his statistical profile is harder to reconcile. Emery didn’t put up points paired with Hutson.

Amateur scouts miss guys like these. Pros even don’t seem to fully contextualize until the end when lists are synthesized. I expect the 6 guys I listed above, at least 3 if not more go in top 20 or so picks. And they may well be better than many guys who are now higher touted. That is group who I see us picking from (maybe 1 or 2 others) where we get real player at 16.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Ahh gotcha. I don’t doubt a guy like Freij will move up from a strong WJ, I just wonder if it’s enough to move him from early to mid 2nd round to 16-24 in the first

Easily, yes. Many already had him ranked in that range before the U18s. One of the guys from The Hockey News had him at 8. Picking Freij at 16 wouldn’t remotely be “off the board” IMO. Especially if his stock rises even more post U18s.

 

[ezcreepin]

Easily, yes. Many already had him ranked in that range before the U18s. One of the guys from The Hockey News had him at 8. Picking Freij at 16 wouldn’t remotely be “off the board” IMO. Especially if his stock rises even more post U18s.

Well technically it would be off the board considering his averaged rank is 34 and moving up nearly 19 spots would be a massive jump. I think if people also perceive him as having a good WJ you could see maybe a 10 spot jump, but 19 feels pretty steep imo

 

[STL fan in MN]

Well technically it would be off the board considering his averaged rank is 34 and moving up nearly 19 spots would be a massive jump. I think if people also perceive him as having a good WJ you could see maybe a 10 spot jump, but 19 feels pretty steep imo

A couple things. First, there is virtually no consensus in this draft. Just based on the rankings eliteprospects has on Freij, they range from 8th to 50th. I don’t really care what anyone’s average is. What matters is what each team thinks when it’s their turn to pick and IMO, if a team likes Freij (or anyone else) they should just take them and not be cute and try to move back as with such varying opinions, another team could easily value that player just as highly and nab him.

Secondly, come back when all of the final lists are out. I bet Freij will be notably higher on a lot of them.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Well technically it would be off the board considering his averaged rank is 34 and moving up nearly 19 spots would be a massive jump. I think if people also perceive him as having a good WJ you could see maybe a 10 spot jump, but 19 feels pretty steep imo

Looking off of my spreadsheet, the average ranking pre May for Willander was 36.5. Post May it was 19.4. He was picked 11th.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

A couple things. First, there is virtually no consensus in this draft. Just based on the rankings eliteprospects has on Freij, they range from 8th to 50th. I don’t really care what anyone’s average is. What matters is what each team thinks when it’s their turn to pick and IMO, if a team likes Freij (or anyone else) they should just take them and not be cute and try to move back as with such varying opinions, another team could easily value that player just as highly and nab him.

Secondly, come back when all of the final lists are out. I bet Freij will be notably higher on a lot of them.

This is it in a nutshell... If your guy is 5 even 10 spots down, then don't be afraid to draft him. Don't even have a scouting staff otherwise.

 

[AyeBah]

Looking off of my spreadsheet, the average ranking pre May for Willander was 36.5. Post May it was 19.4. He was picked 11th.

Yeah but IIRC in the 3ish weeks leading up to the draft Pronman and Wheeler had Willander mocked to the blues at 10 a lot. Hell even JR prospect guru I think had us take him in a mock draft. Bottom line is the way the tea leaves move in the last 2-3 weeks predraft are more accurate than the 10 months before that combined. Not saying it makes sense, but even Slaf 1st overall buzz hit very late, same with Kotkaniemi going 3 his DY. Lots of industry trends and leaks come out starting at the combine and leading down the stretch. We'll get an idea where Freij and some of these other volatile guys really are around that time.

 

[Xerloris]

There’s absolutely no way I want Connelly. Reminds me of Mitchell Miller, but more talented and a forward.

Still praying for Hage.

What about him reminds you of Miller?

 

[TK 421]

I mean, the fact you gave to go back to 2006 says a lot. Nobody is saying scouts are perfect. But they probably have a hell of a lot better track record than random posters playing arm chair scout for free in a message board. Thise posters probably base at least some of their opinions on lists and write-ups by those scouts

And if you were refering to my comment, it was more about how patently ridiculous the statement that 16 is just as good as 12 is. Even outside scouting, earlier is always better. The fact that a premiere scout and his team say there is a clear top 15 is just icing

I don't have to go back to 2006, that's an incorrect assumption. If you'd like a more recent example I can provide one from just about every draft. Me being high on Clutterbuck is why I chose the 2006 draft as an example because scouting services had him generally ranked lower than I did and in fact every NHL team passed on him twice before he was selected 72nd. He's the PERFECT example of the scouts going 'BPA' and missing out on a workhorse that went on to provide 1,064 games and counting. And he didn't bounce around either like a journeyman, he's played 17 seasons for two teams so clearly he turned into a valuable NHL asset well beyond a whole slew of guys who were thought to be the 'BPA' and were drafted ahead of him.

I'm sure scouts have a better grasp than most fans, it's their job to be good at this. Some of us aren't most fans though. Some of us think late June is actually Christmas and have been scouting draft eligible players for 30+ years and are actually pretty damn good at it so appeal to authority doesn't hold much weight for us. There is no real authority, we're all chucking darts here including the scouts.

100% agree that drafting 16th is undoubtedly worse than 12th. However it really depends upon how deep that top is so I understand where they're coming from. For instance my top tier isn't 15, it's 11 players. I like plenty of other guys but for me I'm not seeing some hard BPA available past 11 so I'm real comfortable taking Freij at 16th. Jiricek is still pretty high on most mocks and most wouldn't bat an eye if you suggested the Blues take him at 16th but I actually prefer Freij to Jiricek upon further examination of both their games. Jiricek is a bit too much of a project for me with an unknown trajectory while I find Freij to be a much more easily projectable player in terms of expectations. According to consolidated rankings Freij isn't 'BPA' here, Jiricek is but I don't see it that way because as instinctual as Jiricek plays he makes some questionable decisions at times that I just don't see from Freij.

It's just one of those drafts where people like me get excited because you really have to put the work in to sort it out and make a good pick. Freij may not even be my eventual guy I settle on but right now he's who I want and I tend to brutally pick apart defensemen so I'm feeling pretty good about him.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Now that I've had a chance to reflect on u18s, I've updated my rankings. And despite what many say, I don't see a clear delineation 13 or 14, I see it around 20. I'm confident there will be guys on board at 16 that I'm excited to pick.

1. Celebrini
2. Levshunov
3. Demidov
4. Dickinson
5. Silayev
6. Lindstrom
7. Buium
8. Parekh
9. Iginla
10. Helenius
11. Sennecke
12. Yakemchuk
13. Eiserman
14. Catton
15. Freij
16. Hage
17. Brunicke
18. Brandsegg-Nygard
19. Chernyshov
20. Boisvert
21. Emery
22. Petterson
23. Stiga
24. Jiricek
25. Beaudoin
26. Luchenko
27. Eriksson
28. Boilard
29. Danford
30. Ritchie
31. Greentree
32. Parascak
33. Poirier
34. Fischer
35. Miettinen
36. Badinka
37. Surin
38. T Smith
39. Connelly
40. Roberts
41. O’Reilly
42. Hutson
43. Elick
44. Muggli
45. Pulkkinen
46. Gill
47. Basha
48. Mews
49. Masse
50. LSW
51. Gridin
52. L Marrelli
53. Fernstrom
54. Kleber
55. Letourneau
56. Solberg
57. Jecho
58. Wetsch
59. Skahan
60. Plante
61. Vanacker
62. Mustard
63. Battaglia
64. Ziemer
65. Bednarik
66. Hemming
67. Artamonov
68. Lavoie
69. Zetterberg
70. Misa
71. F Marelli
72. Shuravin
73. Soini
74. Ustinkov
75. Marques
76. Ralph
77. Fransen
78. Josephson
79. Vaisanen
80. Zether
81. Villeneuve
82. Patterson
83. Gustafsson
84. Koivu
85. Galvas
86. Muhonen
87. Meier
88. Berglund
89. Howe
90. Fibigr
91. Uljanskis
92. Sikora
93. Jokinen
94. Ruohonen
95. Whipple
96. Humphreys
97. Van Vliet
98. Kiviharju
99. Zellers

 

[Memento]

What about him reminds you of Miller?

His sheer immaturity.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

sweden u18 team was nowhere near as good as last year's team. this draft class isn't close to as deep for them. there are a handful of mid-late round picks, but there are 6 players that i think have shot at top 2-3 rounds.

zetterberg- small, small forward. got hurt and missed semis and bronze game. he's likely a 3rd rounder but good player.

fernstrom- potential middle 6 winger. has some offensive skill and a projectable frame. he came in much less touted than a guy like hemming, but he looks like more intriguing prospect to me. not a huge area of need, but i would be intrigued by value if he is still there for us in 3rd.

lsw-good player, but he isn't good enough that i want to draft him in top 2 rounds at his size. someone likely will. i just think at 5'11" and 176lbs you gotta be really special to make it and i don't think he is that special.

eriksson- i really like. he looks to be 200' center who can play in all situations. not sure how much offensive upside he has, so may be more of a 3c than a 2c. he gets interesting towards end of 1st round for me.

petterson-has bit of slight frame and is under 6', but he seemed to consistently be able to get to dangerous areas and create prime scoring chances. and not just against lesser teams, against good teams too. he seemed to get better as tourney progressed. he's a 1st rounder for me. i don't think i would pick him at our pick, but i wouldn't object if we do. if he fills out i could see him playing in top 6, either at 2c or on wing.

freij- he really struggled early in tournament, to the degree that i was wondering why he was being talked about so high when his game had so many holes. and then something clicked. not sure if it was confidence or he had been sick or what, but i didn't see any other player show as much improvement over the tourney as him. he was excellent in semis, showing great rush d, fantastic transition passing, great wheels, he looked like he was calm and in control. against slovakia in bronze medal game, he was better than any d i saw all tournament. i started off thinking he could be option at 16, questioned after first couple games if i would even take him with our 2nd, and by the end of the tournament i am wondering if he might not be the best d in the class. now i think he is still more risky than some of the guys ahead of him in the consensus rankings, but his upside is a 1d and there aren't many guys you can say that about. he might be our guy.

I went back and watched the last two games of the tourney. Was out of town for them. Freij was arguably the best player on the ice. Defensively and offensively he shined. The handling, passing, and shot selection. Net front (did well but surprised), closing gaps, and transition. I don’t see where a Greentree, Connelly, or Nygard are a better pick. He may produce more than they do. He was flying on the rush when he turned on the jets. See some Josi in his game.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Now that I've had a chance to reflect on u18s, I've updated my rankings. And despite what many say, I don't see a clear delineation 13 or 14, I see it around 20. I'm confident there will be guys on board at 16 that I'm excited to pick.

1. Celebrini
2. Levshunov
3. Demidov
4. Dickinson
5. Silayev
6. Lindstrom
7. Buium
8. Parekh
9. Iginla
10. Helenius
11. Sennecke
12. Yakemchuk
13. Eiserman
14. Catton
15. Freij
16. Hage
17. Brunicke
18. Brandsegg-Nygard
19. Chernyshov
20. Boisvert
21. Emery
22. Petterson
23. Stiga
24. Jiricek
25. Beaudoin
26. Luchenko
27. Eriksson
28. Boilard
29. Danford
30. Ritchie
31. Greentree
32. Parascak
33. Poirier
34. Fischer
35. Miettinen
36. Badinka
37. Surin
38. T Smith
39. Connelly
40. Roberts
41. O’Reilly
42. Hutson
43. Elick
44. Muggli
45. Pulkkinen
46. Gill
47. Basha
48. Mews
49. Masse
50. LSW
51. Gridin
52. L Marrelli
53. Fernstrom
54. Kleber
55. Letourneau
56. Solberg
57. Jecho
58. Wetsch
59. Skahan
60. Plante
61. Vanacker
62. Mustard
63. Battaglia
64. Ziemer
65. Bednarik
66. Hemming
67. Artamonov
68. Lavoie
69. Zetterberg
70. Misa
71. F Marelli
72. Shuravin
73. Soini
74. Ustinkov
75. Marques
76. Ralph
77. Fransen
78. Josephson
79. Vaisanen
80. Zether
81. Villeneuve
82. Patterson
83. Gustafsson
84. Koivu
85. Galvas
86. Muhonen
87. Meier
88. Berglund
89. Howe
90. Fibigr
91. Uljanskis
92. Sikora
93. Jokinen
94. Ruohonen
95. Whipple
96. Humphreys
97. Van Vliet
98. Kiviharju
99. Zellers

That’s a solid list. Not big on the Russian mid tier guys?

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I think the difference on where break falls in prospects is 2 things.

1. Non-traditional prospects. Hage and boisvert are Canadians playing in ushl. They are underhyped and didn’t make team Canada for u18. I think they have legit top 6 upside, maybe even at c, that is overlooked. Similarly the Norwegian kid playing in Sweden is likely being slept on and looks like top 6 winger that probably should be in top tier.

2. D who don’t put up huge points are underrated. Brunicke is bit of late bloomer who was awesome at u18 but his chl stats are mid. Freij split pp time with lsw and his statistical profile is harder to reconcile. Emery didn’t put up points paired with Hutson.

Amateur scouts miss guys like these. Pros even don’t seem to fully contextualize until the end when lists are synthesized. I expect the 6 guys I listed above, at least 3 if not more go in top 20 or so picks. And they may well be better than many guys who are now higher touted. That is group who I see us picking from (maybe 1 or 2 others) where we get real player at 16.

I wouldn’t have taken Hage to be a 3rd or 4th line center either for Canada. His defense is pretty poor. He is no Beaudoin for sure. New found respect for Coles future after WJCs.

Boisvert would have Greentrees problem of being too slow for the pace.

 

[joe galiba]

scouts sit together and yak it up, and wind up group thinking
if the group decides a player is good or bad the scout with a different opinion is going to keep his mouth shut, if he is wrong about the player it reflects poorly on him, if the scout goes along with the group think and the group is wrong, it is the player "not developing", not the group of scouts getting it wrong and the individual scouts all have cover