Pre-Game Talk: 2024 Draft Thread

[Xerloris]

I’m a big Kyrou fan, but I’d think long and hard about trading him for 5OV. We’d get a stud defender and clear 8 mill of annual cap space. I think I’d do it.

I don't think I would do it. Can't trade Kyrou for a unknown commodity. If you trade him for a known commodity then it's a different story.

 

[bleedblue1223]

For my ideal draft scenarios, I either hope we are either able to move up to 5ish with a Kyrou deal, or if one of the defensemen we like falls, preferably Dickinson or Buium, we are able to trade up to 10-12ish with our additional 2nds or other picks. I get the feeling that after the first few picks, this draft could go a few different ways.

The Montreal scenario seems plausible, but I do think Jersey and Buffalo make good trade partners depending on what their draft boards look like. I don't think they'd be drafting one of the defensemen, so I think those are the spots to trade up to, if our guy is still available.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I don't think I would do it. Can't trade Kyrou for a unknown commodity. If you trade him for a known commodity then it's a different story.

But, once we trade Kyrou all of our problems will be gone.

 

[bleedblue1223]

who realizes Luke Schenn was a 5th OA pcik?
any D drafted there has a better chance of being similar to Schenn than Makar

You also have Jake Sanderson, Noah Hanifin, and Morgan Rielly. It's still to look at someone that didn't live up to expectations, and say that's what they all will be. All picks will come with risk, but we can assess that risk with the actual prospects that we'd be drafting.

Would I advocate trading Kyrou for Parekh? No, I wouldn't. If Parekh hits, he can be huge offensively, but he could also completely flop. For Dickinson, I'd absolutely trade Kyrou for.

 

[MissouriMook]

I would be hardpressed to decide if the offer was really 5th + Reinbacher for Thomas. That is just what we needed to restock D for the future, basically solves all of our problems there.

Although it would be also very difficult to find another as sure of a thing as Thomas.

You’ll spend the next 5-10 years trying to replace Thomas.

I’d be down with trading Kyrou for the 5 OA, but we’d have to win the deal. Something like Kyrou and 16 OA for Dach and 5 OA. Again, you’d have to be 100% on re-signing Buchnevich.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

View attachment 862044
You’ll spend the next 5-10 years trying to replace Thomas.

I’d be down with trading Kyrou for the 5 OA, but we’d have to win the deal. Something like Kyrou and 16 OA for Dach and 5 OA. Again, you’d have to be 100% on re-signing Buchnevich.

if you are trading kyrou for 5oa i would think that makes it LESS likely you resign buchy, as that makes us worse in short run and maybe even pushes window out perhaps another year or so. hard to see how we could make playoffs if we deal kyrou for kid who likely won't help next year (or 2 or more). would want to deal buchy for futures and lean into the rebuild in that case. now maybe we convert some of our futures at that point to help sooner, but that would be for guys in early 20s not 30s like buchy will be.

 

[bleedblue1223]

if you are trading kyrou for 5oa i would think that makes it LESS likely you resign buchy, as that makes us worse in short run and maybe even pushes window out perhaps another year or so. hard to see how we could make playoffs if we deal kyrou for kid who likely won't help next year (or 2}). would want to deal buchy for futures and lean into the rebuild in that case. now maybe we convert some of our futures at that point to help sooner, but that would be for guys in early 20s not 30s like buchy will be.

I feel like there would be too many options to really have an idea of what Army would do. Are we picking at 5 and 16? Do we flip the 16th for something? Do we pursue a trade or free agent that still fits our age group with the money that we freed up?

 

[HighNote]

Going back 20 years, here is every defenseman taken in the top 5 of the draft:

Cam Barker
Jack Johnson
Erik Johnson
Thomas Hickey
Karl Alzner
Drew Doughty
Zach Bogosian
Alex Pietrangelo
Luke Schenn
Victor Hedman
Erik Gudbranson
Adam Larsson
Ryan Murray
Griffin Reinhart
Morgan Reilly
Seth Jones
Aaron Ekblad
Noah Hanifin
Olli Juolevi
Miro Heiskanen
Cale Makar
Rasmus Dahlin
Bowen Byram
Jake Sanderson
Owen Power
Luke Hughes
Simon Nemec
David Reinbacher
(28 total)

So I'd say you have roughly a 25-35% chance of drafting a top pairing or near top-pairing defenseman.

---

If you extend that to the top 10, these are the players that were taken 6-10:

Ladislav Smid
Boris Valabik
Brian Lee
Luc Bourdon
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jared Cowen
Dylan McIlrath
Dougie Hamilton
Jonas Brodin
Hampus Lindholm
Matthew Dumba
Derrick Pouliot
Jacob Trouba
Slater Koekkoek
Darnell Nurse
Rasmus Ristolainen
Haydn Fleury
Ivan Provorov
Zach Werenski
Mikhail Sergachev
Quinn Hughes
Adam Boqvist
Evan Bouchard
Moritz Seider
Philip Broberg
Jamie Drysdale
Simon Edvinsson
Brandt Clarke
David Jiricek
Kevin Korchinski
Pavel Mintyukov
Dmitriy Simashev
(32 total)
So I'd say roughly 20-30% chance of drafting a top pairing or near top-pairing defenseman.

---

If you extend that to the top 16 (16 being where we're likely gonna pick), these are the players that were taken 11-16:

A.J. Thelen
Marc Staal
Sasha Pokulok
Ty Wishart
Ryan McDonagh
Kevin Shattenkirk
Alex Plante
Tyler Myers
Colten Tuebert
Erik Karlsson
Ryan Ellis
Calvin de Haan
Dmitry Kulikov
Nick Leddy
Cam Fowler
Brandon Gormley
Derek Forbort
Duncan Siemens
Ryan Murphy
Jamie Oleksiak
Cody Ceci
Samuel Morin
Josh Morrissey
Ryan Pulock
Nikita Zadorov
Julius Honka
Jakub Zboril
Jake Bean
Charlie McAvoy
Jakob Chychrun
Callan Foote
Erik Brannstrom
Juuso Valimaki
Noah Dobson
Victor Soderstrom
Cam York
Kaiden Guhle
Denton Mateychuk
Tom Willander
(39 total, but keep in mind it's a range of 6 picks per draft instead of 5)
So what...a 10% chance of getting a top-pairing/close to top pairing guy?
And we'd essentially be getting the "whatever's left" of that group because we're at the tail end of it.

---

Of course, these are very rough estimates and it depends a bit on what players you consider top-pairing or almost top-pairing. But based on those lists, in my mind it appears as though there isn't a huge leap in quantity of solid defenseman from the top 5 to the 6-10 picks, but there is a sizable gap between the quality of said players. I'd say about 8 of the top 10 players listed in those first two groups were drafted top 5, and there are about double the amount of bonafide top pairing guys (even with 4 less players in the pool than the 6-10 group).

Something else I see, though, is that the players in the 6-10 range appear to be much safer picks. There really aren't that many "busts" or disappointments. It feels as though the top 5 has a higher ceiling/lower floor, where the 6-10 group has a lower ceiling/higher floor.

But you can clearly see the drop off from the top 10 to the 11-16 picks. There's a few unicorns in there, like Karlsson, McAvoy, McDonough, Morrissey, but for the most part it's a lot of meh or busts altogether.

---

So based on all that, I'd say it's worth kicking tires on trying to get into the top 10, but I don't know if I'd want to pay a huge price because even if you do get into that top 10, you're still more likely to NOT get a top pairing guy than actually get one. I'd hate to send a solid piece packing only to draft a Matt Dumba or Erik Gudbranson type.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Going back 20 years, here is every defenseman taken in the top 5 of the draft:

Cam Barker
Jack Johnson
Erik Johnson
Thomas Hickey
Karl Alzner
Drew Doughty
Zach Bogosian
Alex Pietrangelo
Luke Schenn
Victor Hedman
Erik Gudbranson
Adam Larsson
Ryan Murray
Griffin Reinhart
Morgan Reilly
Seth Jones
Aaron Ekblad
Noah Hanifin
Olli Juolevi
Miro Heiskanen
Cale Makar
Rasmus Dahlin
Bowen Byram
Jake Sanderson
Owen Power
Luke Hughes
Simon Nemec
David Reinbacher
(28 total)

So I'd say you have roughly a 25-35% chance of drafting a top pairing or near top-pairing defenseman.

---

If you extend that to the top 10, these are the players that were taken 6-10:

Ladislav Smid
Boris Valabik
Brian Lee
Luc Bourdon
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jared Cowen
Dylan McIlrath
Dougie Hamilton
Jonas Brodin
Hampus Lindholm
Matthew Dumba
Derrick Pouliot
Jacob Trouba
Slater Koekkoek
Darnell Nurse
Rasmus Ristolainen
Haydn Fleury
Ivan Provorov
Zach Werenski
Mikhail Sergachev
Quinn Hughes
Adam Boqvist
Evan Bouchard
Moritz Seider
Philip Broberg
Jamie Drysdale
Simon Edvinsson
Brandt Clarke
David Jiricek
Kevin Korchinski
Pavel Mintyukov
Dmitriy Simashev
(32 total)
So I'd say roughly 20-30% chance of drafting a top pairing or near top-pairing defenseman.

---

If you extend that to the top 16 (16 being where we're likely gonna pick), these are the players that were taken 11-16:

A.J. Thelen
Marc Staal
Sasha Pokulok
Ty Wishart
Ryan McDonagh
Kevin Shattenkirk
Alex Plante
Tyler Myers
Colten Tuebert
Erik Karlsson
Ryan Ellis
Calvin de Haan
Dmitry Kulikov
Nick Leddy
Cam Fowler
Brandon Gormley
Derek Forbort
Duncan Siemens
Ryan Murphy
Jamie Oleksiak
Cody Ceci
Samuel Morin
Josh Morrissey
Ryan Pulock
Nikita Zadorov
Julius Honka
Jakub Zboril
Jake Bean
Charlie McAvoy
Jakob Chychrun
Callan Foote
Erik Brannstrom
Juuso Valimaki
Noah Dobson
Victor Soderstrom
Cam York
Kaiden Guhle
Denton Mateychuk
Tom Willander
(39 total, but keep in mind it's a range of 6 picks per draft instead of 5)
So what...a 10% chance of getting a top-pairing/close to top pairing guy?
And we'd essentially be getting the "whatever's left" of that group because we're at the tail end of it.

---

Of course, these are very rough estimates and it depends a bit on what players you consider top-pairing or almost top-pairing. But based on those lists, in my mind it appears as though there isn't a huge leap in quantity of solid defenseman from the top 5 to the 6-10 picks, but there is a sizable gap between the quality of said players. I'd say about 8 of the top 10 players listed in those first two groups were drafted top 5, and there are about double the amount of bonafide top pairing guys (even with 4 less players in the pool than the 6-10 group).

Something else I see, though, is that the players in the 6-10 range appear to be much safer picks. There really aren't that many "busts" or disappointments. It feels as though the top 5 has a higher ceiling/lower floor, where the 6-10 group has a lower ceiling/higher floor.

But you can clearly see the drop off from the top 10 to the 11-16 picks. There's a few unicorns in there, like Karlsson, McAvoy, McDonough, Morrissey, but for the most part it's a lot of meh or busts altogether.

---

So based on all that, I'd say it's worth kicking tires on trying to get into the top 10, but I don't know if I'd want to pay a huge price because even if you do get into that top 10, you're still more likely to NOT get a top pairing guy than actually get one. I'd hate to send a solid piece packing only to draft a Matt Dumba or Erik Gudbranson type.

i'd trade kyrou for more than half the guys on your top 5 list (knowing how their careers have turned out or how they are today if still young) if i could have them at some point prior to their 20th birthday. it would be about 30% for top 10 list and maybe 15% on the 3rd list. which is why if we have a chance to get top 5 pick for kyrou i think it makes sense, bc the chances of getting guy that good with later pick is so much lower. and i say that as someone who likes kyrou and feel like he can be the 3rd best forward on legit contender, but we can't be a legit contender if aging/declining leddy and faulk are both in our top 3 d. (and our 4d is much, much worse).

 

[bleedblue1223]

i'd trade kyrou for more than half the guys on your top 5 list (knowing how their careers have turned out or how they are today if still young) if i could have them at some point prior to their 20th birthday. it would be about 30% for top 10 list and maybe 15% on the rd list. which is why if we have a chance to get top 5 pick for kyrou i think it makes sense, bc the chances of getting guy that good with later pick is so much lower. and i say that as someone who likes kyrou and feel like he can be the 3rd best forward on legit contender, but we can't be a legit contender if aging/declining leddy and faulk are both in our top 3 d. (and our 4d is much, much worse).

And this is where I also am. Those that want to tank are correct that the most likely way to get the high-end players that you need to win a Cup, is at the top of the draft. If you can get one of those top 5 picks without giving up a #1 C, #1 D, or an ultra elite W, then it's something to pursue, at a minimum strongly consider. It's not that Kyrou is easily replaceable, but removing him won't put us on the level of Chicago/San Jose, and we at least have a few wingers in teh system that reasonably project as 30+ goal wingers, if they hit their ceiling.

 

[Blueswin]

How about trading Snuggy for Utah's pick?

 

[Beauterham]

This is from the trade and free agency board.

How many people here would be down with moving Kyrou for the #5 pick?

It depends on who's still on the board at #5 so it would be a draft day trade. If one of Celebrini (hah!), Levshunov, Dickinson and Demidov is still available I'd do it. If all of those go top-4 (which isn't something that would be a surprise) I wouldn't.

In the case that the team(s) drafting 2nd-4th are high on one or more of Silayev, Buium, Catton, Lindstrom or Eiserman in the top-4 and picks them, I'd definitely do the trade. I think the chance Levshunov and Dickinson will become #1's in the NHL are high enough the take the gamble. Demidov is also as close to a sure thing on forward as it gets. I think it's more probably that Buium and Silayev will top out as top-4 defenseman and who knows about Parekh... It's not worth the gamble on moving Kyrou for one of them.

Moving Kyrou for #5 would mean the retool/rebuild/rewhatever is going to take a bit longer although I can see Levshunov and Dickinson in the NHL within a year. Demidov is still signed for one more season in the KHL so he could probably come over in a year aswell (he could make his NHL debut a year sooner than Michkov who is signed an extra year).


PS. we're constantly talking about moving Kyrou for pick #5, but it could be any pick in the top-10 as long as one of Celebrini, Levshunov, Dickinson and Demidov are still on board.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I would trade Kyrou for Iginla. He or Dvorsky could center your second line or move one of them to first line winger. Make no mistake. He will be a far better NHLer than Kyrou. The draft rankings that don’t put him in the top five or dead wrong. He’s that good. Look what he did in the playoffs.

I think Demidov, Celebrini, Dickinson, and Levshunov are gone. THEN I asked for one of their young defenseman and swap 16 for 27

Iginla Dvorsky Pekarcik

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Watch the first two games of Dubuque and Muskegon and let me know if you still like Boisvert in the first. He has not been good in the playoffs at all. Pekarcik and Pahlsson have been very good.

 

[sfvega]

I would trade Kyrou for a top defensive prospect, but not for forward prospects. We've missed out on a ton of high-potential D prospects. To get a chance at Dickinson would be huge. Big potential, huge need. But to trade him for another forward who may be more complete or may be more dynamic doesn't make sense to me. Dickinson is in the vein of Seider or Sanderson who you would want playing 20 minutes a night in his 3rd post-draft season. Having that is worth losing Kyrou, especially having Lindstein on the left. Now we could fill in the rest of the D for the future reasonably without needing to tank (which the FO doesn't want) or a miracle from another team gifting us a 1D. And right around the time where Krug and Faulk's contracts are expiring. Three years from now, someone like Iginla would be a comparable forward to Kyrou maybe. That's a lot of risk for middling upside. I think people are too eager to give up Kyrou, honestly.

Maybe it would make more sense if we needed a center, but Thomas is our 1C and Dvorsky seems like he's definitely sticking at center.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I would trade Kyrou for a top defensive prospect, but not for forward prospects. We've missed out on a ton of high-potential D prospects. To get a chance at Dickinson would be huge. Big potential, huge need. But to trade him for another forward who may be more complete or may be more dynamic doesn't make sense to me. Dickinson is in the vein of Seider or Sanderson who you would want playing 20 minutes a night in his 3rd post-draft season. Having that is worth losing Kyrou, especially having Lindstein on the left. Now we could fill in the rest of the D for the future reasonably without needing to tank (which the FO doesn't want) or a miracle from another team gifting us a 1D. And right around the time where Krug and Faulk's contracts are expiring. Three years from now, someone like Iginla would be a comparable forward to Kyrou maybe. That's a lot of risk for middling upside. I think people are too eager to give up Kyrou, honestly.

Maybe it would make more sense if we needed a center, but Thomas is our 1C and Dvorsky seems like he's definitely sticking at center.

What if Dickinson is the next Bogosian or Gudbranson though? Solid d-men but not the studs they were hoped to be. Is the risk worth it? He’s far from any sort of guarantee IMO.

Personally, I don’t see it with Dickinson. From an athletic standpoint, he’s an absolute thoroughbred. He has the size, skating, athleticism and skills. What I see as lacking is the hockey sense. He’s very basic. If this was football with very set plays and he played any position other than QB, he’d have all-star written all over him. But there’s so much improv in hockey and Dickinson lacks that creativity IMO. I think he’s going to be a solid 2nd pairing type due to his strengths but he won’t be a #1 because he lacks hockey sense.

 

[bleedblue1223]

What if Dickinson is the next Bogosian or Gudbranson though? Solid d-men but not the studs they were hoped to be. Is the risk worth it? He’s far from any sort of guarantee IMO.

Personally, I don’t see it with Dickinson. From an athletic standpoint, he’s an absolute thoroughbred. He has the size, skating, athleticism and skills. What I see as lacking is the hockey sense. He’s very basic. If this was football with very set plays and he played any position other than QB, he’d have all-star written all over him. But there’s so much improv in hockey and Dickinson lacks that creativity IMO. I think he’s going to be a solid 2nd pairing type due to his strengths but he won’t be a #1 because he lacks hockey sense.

Isn't Hanifin a decent comp here instead of those other guys. I kind of see Dickinson as a safe top pair guy, but questionable of true #1 status.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Isn't Hanifin a decent comp here instead of those other guys. I kind of see Dickinson as a safe top pair guy, but questionable of true #1 status.

Depends on who you ask. To me, the answer is no. I admittedly value Dickinson lower than most but that’s what I see with him - a guy dominating Jrs because he’s a physical stud but once he’s in a league where just about everyone is a physical stud, I don’t think he’s going to stand out.

 

[sfvega]

Isn't Hanifin a decent comp here instead of those other guys. I kind of see Dickinson as a safe top pair guy, but questionable of true #1 status.

That's where I have Dickinson as well. Not getting a Hedman or Josi, but someone who could lead our D core going forward nonetheless.

 

[sfvega]

What if Dickinson is the next Bogosian or Gudbranson though? Solid d-men but not the studs they were hoped to be. Is the risk worth it? He’s far from any sort of guarantee IMO.

Personally, I don’t see it with Dickinson. From an athletic standpoint, he’s an absolute thoroughbred. He has the size, skating, athleticism and skills. What I see as lacking is the hockey sense. He’s very basic. If this was football with very set plays and he played any position other than QB, he’d have all-star written all over him. But there’s so much improv in hockey and Dickinson lacks that creativity IMO. I think he’s going to be a solid 2nd pairing type due to his strengths but he won’t be a #1 because he lacks hockey sense.

Bogo was a hell of a prospect too, sometimes it just doesn't work out. No one in the 5-8 range is a surefire star, but trading for a forward prospect who could hit and still be a lateral move is a hell of an upside for such a big deal. And what if they're the next Lias Andersson or Pool Party?

 

[bleedblue1223]

Depends on who you ask. To me, the answer is no. I admittedly value Dickinson lower than most but that’s what I see with him - a guy dominating Jrs because he’s a physical stud but once he’s in a league where just about everyone is a physical stud, I don’t think he’s going to stand out.

Just curious, how do you rank the top handful of defensemen, and which are worthy of a top 5 pick?

 

[EastVillageBlues]

View attachment 862044
You’ll spend the next 5-10 years trying to replace Thomas.

I’d be down with trading Kyrou for the 5 OA, but we’d have to win the deal. Something like Kyrou and 16 OA for Dach and 5 OA. Again, you’d have to be 100% on re-signing Buchnevich.

We might also be trying the next 5-10 years getting a good D corps together once Faulk and Parayko declines from being top 4 D men. I don't think it's a black of white situation if we were indeed offered 5 + Reinbacher.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Isn't Hanifin a decent comp here instead of those other guys. I kind of see Dickinson as a safe top pair guy, but questionable of true #1 status.

I see him as the safest bet to be a top four. that’s going to be his floor

 

[STL fan in MN]

Bogo was a hell of a prospect too, sometimes it just doesn't work out. No one in the 5-8 range is a surefire star, but trading for a forward prospect who could hit and still be a lateral move is a hell of an upside for such a big deal. And what if they're the next Lias Andersson or Pool Party?

I never advocated for trading Kyrou for a forward prospect. My argument is against trading him for an unknown D prospect. A guy with a couple more years of experience and thus a clearer projection like Simon Nemec or David Jiricek? Yeah, I’d consider that more. But I’d have to REALLY like a 17-18 year old d-man to trade an established player for him.

That said, I do think 17/18 year old forward are easier to project than 17/18 year old d-men. They’re usually closer to being their finished products at that age. The drafting of forwards in the top-15 or so seems to be a lot more accurate to me than for d-men.

 

[Beauterham]

I would trade Kyrou for a top defensive prospect, but not for forward prospects.

Just out of curiosity, would you decline if someone offered us the chance to pick Demidov (while the top defensive prospects are already off the board)? I wouldn't be surprised if he falls a couple of spots due to the Russian factor and could be had with pick 4-7.