GDT: 2024 Draft Discussion

[Dotter]

Exactly. MBN has a high floor and has a pretty good looking ceiling. If he reaches beyond the projected ceiling, then he's a special player. But at the very least he will be a wrecking ball of hate in the bottom six.

I say use that 15 pick on him (or someone who projects to be an NHLer floor) and shoot for the moon with later picks.

Or, most likely, when it is time Yzerman will trade some of the defensive depth in the system for our elite scoring winger. Edvinsson, ASP, or Wallinder, maybe even Johansson might bring something interesting back in a trade - don't need all those guys.

Maybe we can trade a goalie, Cossa or Augustine if they both pan out... we don't need both.

Wings have assets they can trade for that scoring winger.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

If Catton isn’t skilled, what is your idea of skilled?

I don't think he is unskilled, but I also don't think he has enough skill to drive a top line if you need more context.

 

[HisNoodliness]

It's actually pretty funny that a fan can create a mathematical formula our of thin air and yet prove to themselves that Eiserman's expected NHL value is more than double that of MBN.

There is obvioussly no proven formula for prospect projection and it's not all that complicated when it comes to the Draft. Teams are usually going to use their higher picks to select the guy they think has the best chance to be a good NHL player, with emphasis on positions of value and positions of perceived need. Specific skill attributes are secondary and addressed with later picks where odds are very much against finding an NHL player at all. That's how you end up with very different but specific attribute guys like Buchelnikov and Cleveland in the second round. Specific needs are better acquired via other means, the odds of filling them much better from someone with a track record of having done what you need rather than a guy who might in three or four years, by which time the team may find the need it had no longer exists anyway.

There also seem to be many variations of "we need a winger who can make a difference", as if the team doesn't already have one in Raymond. He's going to get close to Kyle Connor money because at the same age he's just as good if not better. The top winger spot is not a black hole, the projected quality and depth behind him in 3-4 years is what needs to be upgraded.

I think that everyone is doing an expected value calculation like that in their head; that's what taking the "the guy who is most likely to be good" means. It's just meant to be demonstrative of the thought process.

I don't think we need an elite winger specifically, just the highest potential piece we can get. Correct for last year's PDO bender and this team is severely lacking for players and prospects that can create offense. To me, there's a realistic chance at Eiserman being our most productive player. We still need two players who will be at least as productive as Raymond and Larkin if we want to have a strong top 6. We hopefully have one among Danielson, Kasper and Mazur. I think Eiserman is the player, potentially available at 15, most likely to be able to produce at that rate.

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

I think that everyone is doing an expected value calculation like that in their head; that's what taking the "the guy who is most likely to be good" means. It's just meant to be demonstrative of the thought process.

I don't think we need an elite winger specifically, just the highest potential piece we can get. Correct for last year's PDO bender and this team is severely lacking for players and prospects that can create offense. To me, there's a realistic chance at Eiserman being our most productive player. We still need two players who will be at least as productive as Raymond and Larkin if we want to have a strong top 6. We hopefully have one among Danielson, Kasper and Mazur. I think Eiserman is the player, potentially available at 15, most likely to be able to produce at that rate.

I agree with all of that except the choice of Eiserman, and everyone is going to have their own idea about what that needed best piece could be. More good pieces are certainly needed.

 

[DoMakc]

The whole concept of boom-or-bust and low ceiling high floor is oversimplified and somewhat incorrect view how the distribution of possible outcomes look. I don't believe in bimodal distribution, so by saying boom or bust we actually mean bust.

Let's assume for a moment that a fictive player named Cole Yzermann is a great shooter but has questions regarding his skating, size, compete level and defensive game. Based on history the most probable outcome for him should be AAAA player, positive quartile Daniel Sprong/Anthony Duclair, 90% percentile DeBrincat, 99,9% - Brett Hull.

Than there is an another fictive NMB player, who has an above avarage shot, outstanding competetiveness, high defensive awareness and willingness to play defense, but does not possess puck skills. His distribution looks like: Negative quartile - Christian Fischer, Median - Blake Coleman, positive quartile - Jack Guentzel, 90% - John Leclair, 99,9% - Gordy f***ing Howe.

Who'd you rather have? Why do you compare upside of one guy with median outcome for another guy, why assume the other guy has no upside? I mean we can assume that DeBrincat is the most likely outcome for Yzermann, but it is delusional - we have Brad Krysko for this kind of things. I don't know about you, but i prefer a GM of my favourite tam to have a better approach to draft that trying to hit on lottery ticket and hoping other lottery tickets didn't produce better results, so he is not looking bad.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Exactly, we have to be realistic and accept that if we want to get a star player at 15, we're going to need to take a big risk. Otherwise, we'll never find that player. My personal opinion based upon the current Red Wings, who we have in the system and such is that I do not care about a player's floor anymore.

Like let's run a little exercise. I think we can nitpick percentages and value- but let's just treat it as a general demonstration rather than a rigorous mathematical exercise. Let's say that we call a 4th liner a value 1 player, a 3rd liner: value 2, a 2nd liner: value 3 a 1st liner: value 4 and a star: value 5.

I think MBN's expected value calculation is something like
10%*0 +
20%*1 +
30%*2 +
30%*3 +
10%*4 +
0*5
For a total value of 2.1

I may break down Eiserman this way
70%*0 +
0%*1 +
0%*2 +
10%*3 +
10%*4 +
10%*5
For a total value of 1.2

That's a lower expected value for Eiserman, I totally agree that you're probably getting less value. If we were starting a new franchise, I'd take MBN and approach it with an expected value calculation along these lines. However, the reality is that to me, anything less than a second line forward, at this point, has effectively 0 value. We have a ton of those players, and if we need one more, we can get them as a UFA. We desperately need someone that actually makes a difference. So my situational modified scaling would be something like: A 3rd liner or below has 0 value, a second line forward has a value of 1, a first liner a value of 5 and a star a value of 10.

With that modified scaling MBN ends up with an expected value of .8 and Eiserman has one of 1.9. That's why, to me, I think it's actually a really easy choice.

And I would tell you that you are overstating the likelihood of Eiserman being a 4 or a 5. Likelihood of becoming a star is less than 1% for sure. First line forward is also less than 10%. So why are you overstating it? I sense it is because you feel that we absolutely need to draft a high impact offensive player. You can only draft what is actually available and you need to be open to the fact that no one may realistically project as such.

I don't think we are so far along in the rebuild that we can afford to walk away with nothing to show for a mid first round pick. Missing on Zadina is hurting this team more than most are willing to admit. We at least need a tradable asset from this pick.

 

[norrisnick]

Craig Button gets it

Ask Button about picking Mo Seider...

 

[lilidk]

Ask Button about picking Mo Seider...

He learned from his mistakes and selected Solberg for Red Wings

 

[Holden Caufield]

Trading up for Catton would be my ideal draft outcome. What a talent! And he has the skating stride to match.
He crushes whatever/wherever he has ever played.
Size queens won’t like it, but I don’t see how he misses.

 

[Frk It]

Craig Button gets it

He also has him ranked 18th, which is where I think had him on the last list I tried putting together

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Trading up for Catton would be my ideal draft outcome. What a talent! And he has the skating stride to match.
He crushes whatever/wherever he has ever played.
Size queens won’t like it, but I don’t see how he misses.

His first name is Berkly

 

[Frk It]

His first name is Berkly

Did you think Cale was a cool name? Bet you’d take him now.

 

[GoBoltz56]

Did you think Cale was a cool name? Bet you’d take him now.

Wayne is kind of a lame name too.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Trading up for Catton would be my ideal draft outcome. What a talent! And he has the skating stride to match.
He crushes whatever/wherever he has ever played.
Size queens won’t like it, but I don’t see how he misses.

You don't trade up for someone like Catton. If he's there at 15? I give it consideration, but I'm not moving up for him.

Catton reminds me of a much worse Cole Perfetti despite having better draft year production. I wasn't a huge Perfetti fan either. Also, I don't think that Catton is better than Benson was in his draft year. Another similarly sized prospect.

I will say that I like his skating and he shows good offensive smarts but I'm not a fan of his size at all and think it will stop him from sticking at center and could limit his effectiveness. I also don't think he's a center at the pro level because of this.

 

[NA Hockey]

You don't trade up for someone like Catton. If he's there at 15? I give it consideration, but I'm not moving up for him.

Catton reminds me of a much worse Cole Perfetti despite having better draft year production. I wasn't a huge Perfetti fan either. Also, I don't think that Catton is better than Benson was in his draft year. Another similarly sized prospect.

I will say that I like his skating and he shows good offensive smarts but I'm not a fan of his size at all and think it will stop him from sticking at center and could limit his effectiveness. I also don't think he's a center at the pro level because of this.

Draft Year Production:

Cole Perfetti - 111 pts in 61 games - 1.82 ppg. Drafted 10th overall 5'11' 185 lbs
Zach Benson - 98 pts in 60 games - 1.63 ppg Drafted 13 overall 5'9' 165 lbs
Berkly Catton - 116 pts in 68 games - 1.71 ppg Likely to go between 12-16 overall 5'11" 170 lbs

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Draft Year Production:

Cole Perfetti - 111 pts in 61 games - 1.82 ppg. Drafted 10th overall
Zach Benson - 98 pts in 60 games - 1.63 ppg Drafted 13 overall
Berkly Catton - 116 pts in 68 games - 1.71 ppg Likely to go between 12-16 overall

I was looking specifically at goals and points, not necessarily points per game.

Benson - 36 in 60
Perfetti - 37 in 61
Catton - 54 in 68

This isn't a very deep draft year so I wouldn't be surprised if Catton went in the top 10. He's a solid prospect but also the kind of prospect that every year has half a dozen of with 1st round rankings. He's not a can't-miss prospect. If you want offense and ONLY offense then this is your guy.

 

[NA Hockey]

I was looking specifically at goals and points, not necessarily points per game.

Benson - 36 in 60
Perfetti - 37 in 61
Catton - 54 in 68

This isn't a very deep draft year so I wouldn't be surprised if Catton went in the top 10. He's a solid prospect but also the kind of prospect that every year has half a dozen of with 1st round rankings. He's not a can't-miss prospect. If you want offense and ONLY offense then this is your guy.

Understand what you are saying but people said Perfetti and Benson were offense only as well and both were above average defensively last year in the NHL. I think Catton with the right coach has the hockey IQ to develop away from the puck and in his own end despite not hounding pucks like Benson or not being as smart as Perfetti.

 

[DoMakc]

Understand what you are saying but people said Perfetti and Benson were offense only as well and both were above average defensively last year in the NHL. I think Catton with the right coach has the hockey IQ to develop away from the puck and in his own end despite not hounding pucks like Benson or not being as smart as Perfetti.

Benson was rather good defensively, issue with Perfetti and Benson was skating. Catton is of if not the best skater in this draft

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Understand what you are saying but people said Perfetti and Benson were offense only as well and both were above average defensively last year in the NHL. I think Catton with the right coach has the hockey IQ to develop away from the puck and in his own end despite not hounding pucks like Benson or not being as smart as Perfetti.

Benson was always billed as being solid defensively. Perfetti, not so much, and it's why Rick Bowness didn't play him much in Winnipeg. He's still a poor defensive player.

Benson was rather good defensively, issue with Perfetti and Benson was skating. Catton is of if not the best skater in this draft

Benson's issues aren't skating. Not sure where that came from. Perfetti's skating issues were noted to be what could keep him from playing center, and he's not playing center as a result. Still a decent skater.

 

[Realgud]

I'd like to know who said Benson was "offense only"... he was an elite defensive player in the WHL. Also, similar to ASP, his skating ability was always excellent but struggled to generate the ideal amount of speed for a smaller player in the NHL, but you can think that could come with getting bigger/stronger.

As a side note, I see many strange takes when it comes to the defensive game of forward prospects... all the time... every year. For example, you'd always hear about how Michkov had the worst defensive game of all time but you'd never hear the same about Bedard, and then everyone can see Bedard struggles really hard defensively in the NHL while KHL coaches tried Michkov at center because he's actually pretty good defensively. People often think that a player who lacks the maturity for consistent defensive involvement must certainly have poor defensive abilities but, in reality, those are completely different things.

Can't speak for Catton yet but his offensive skills are undeniable. Haven't taken the time to evaluate his overall game yet so I don't have a strong opinion on him.

 

[NA Hockey]

Benson was always billed as being solid defensively. Perfetti, not so much, and it's why Rick Bowness didn't play him much in Winnipeg. He's still a poor defensive player.



Benson's issues aren't skating. Not sure where that came from. Perfetti's skating issues were noted to be what could keep him from playing center, and he's not playing center as a result. Still a decent skater.

Perfetti is a good defensive player, his underlying defensive numbers were excellent this year. as well as last. Corsi, Fenwick, xGA, GF percentage, plus minus, everything was above NHL average. It's all publicly available information. Bowness doesn't like young guys or smaller guys so that's why he didn't play a lot at times. It wasn't his defense. In fact he was better defensively than he was offensively according to the stats.

Benson's issue is being sub 5'10 and being a slow skater. He is a good skater but is not fast and when you are 5'9" people hold that against you. He proved people wrong last year and will continue to do so.

Catton doesn't have Benson's grit or Perfetti's IQ but he is a great scorer and will be a real good pro IMO.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Perfetti is a good defensive player, his underlying defensive numbers were excellent this year. as well as last. Corsi, Fenwick, xGA, GF percentage, plus minus, everything was above NHL average. It's all publicly available information. Bowness doesn't like young guys or smaller guys so that's why he didn't play a lot at times. It wasn't his defense. In fact he was better defensively than he was offensively according to the stats.

Benson's issue is being sub 5'10 and being a slow skater. He is a good skater but is not fast and when you are 5'9" people hold that against you. He proved people wrong last year and will continue to do so.

Catton doesn't have Benson's grit or Perfetti's IQ but he is a great scorer and will be a real good pro IMO.

The underlying defensive numbers say that McDavid should have won a couple of Selkes and that Mo Seider is one of the worst defensemen in the NHL in 2024. Defensive metrics and advanced stats are still a work in progress and far away from painting a more accurate picture. Perfetti's numbers are also helped by playing 2:12 of his very sheltered 13:35 per game on the powerplay, his most common linemate being Ehlers, and also playing with a Vezina candidate for his goalie. You can be a plus player and have a high corsi/fenwick, and xGF but still be a bad defensive player. I watched the Jets a lot this year. (mostly when playing other Canadian teams or Seattle) Perfetti isn't Fabbri or Tyler Bertuzzi level bad defensively, but he's not still below average in terms of actual ability.

Anyway, back to Catton, I think he could be a good pro but again I'm not seeing anything special in his game that isn't available every year at the draft.

Just looking back at the last 6 drafts these are the 5'11" and under forwards drafted out of the first round.

2018 - Farabee (5'11" at the draft.) Denisenko
2019 - Hughes, Zegras, Caulfield, Turcotte, Newhook, Krebs,
2020 - Raymond, Perfetti, Jarvis, Rossi, Amirov (rip), Perreault, Brisson
2021 - Eklund, Sillinger, Coronato, Rosen, Lysell, Samoskevich,
2022 - Cooley, Savoie, Nazar, Lekkerimaki, Kemell, Mesar, Howard
2023 - Bedard, Michkov, Benson, Moore, Perreault, Stenberg, Cowan, Nadeau
36 players if I'm correct and didn't miss any names.

There's a few (Hughes, Raymond, Cooley, Bedard) special players in the mix but they were all drafted in the top 5. Caulfield, Jarvis and potentially Michkov and Benson are the small scoring forwards that might also fall into that category, but Michkov would have been 2nd overall if not for the Russia thing, and Benson would be top 5 in a year with average depth.

I know that a few of these names it's still too early to tell if they'll become impact players or not, but I don't think that Catton is better than more than half of these names were at the same stage.

 

[Holden Caufield]

You don't trade up for someone like Catton. If he's there at 15? I give it consideration, but I'm not moving up for him.

Catton reminds me of a much worse Cole Perfetti despite having better draft year production. I wasn't a huge Perfetti fan either. Also, I don't think that Catton is better than Benson was in his draft year. Another similarly sized prospect.

I will say that I like his skating and he shows good offensive smarts but I'm not a fan of his size at all and think it will stop him from sticking at center and could limit his effectiveness. I also don't think he's a center at the pro level because of this.

In the last 20 years, Connor Bedard and Sam Reinhart are the only 2 WHL draft eligible players to out produce Catton. They went 1st OA and 2nd OA respectively. Catton also had a lot more goals than Reinhart.

Catton went 1st overall in the WHL draft. And he was player of the tournament at the Hlinka. So it’s not just a WHL thing. He was always the best in minor hockey and has shown he can be the best in international play.


When a kid can skate like Catton and is putting up elite video game numbers wherever he goes, they aren’t going to miss. Even if he ends up on the wing… He’ll be a lot closer to Mitch Marner than Perfetti, because of his wheels and IQ.
If he goes outside the top 10 it would be criminal IMO.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

In the last 20 years, Connor Bedard and Sam Reinhart are the only 2 WHL draft eligible players to out produce Catton. They went 1st OA and 2nd OA respectively. Catton also had a lot more goals than Reinhart.

Catton went 1st overall in the WHL draft. And he was player of the tournament at the Hlinka. So it’s not just a WHL thing. He was always the best in minor hockey and has shown he can be the best in international play.


When a kid can skate like Catton and is putting up elite video game numbers wherever he goes, they aren’t going to miss. Even if he ends up on the wing… He’ll be a lot closer to Mitch Marner than Perfetti, because of his wheels and IQ.
If he goes outside the top 10 it would be criminal IMO.

NHL Draft Class talks a bit about Catton around the 5 minute mark. Him being ranked at 8 while Tij Iginla, a winger, being ranked right behind him at 9 and it wouldn't surprise anyone if they Iginla didn't go higher. Tij produced far less than Catton.

Again, not doubting that Catton will be a good pro, but the kind of guy that you trade up for? What do you realistically expect Catton to become? I'm expecting him to be drafted between 5 to 10 in the draft and become a Nick Suzuki type 60-70 point scorer minus the two-way play. Great player to have, but what's the opportunity cost to move from 15 to 6 or 7 and is it even possible?

 

[Holden Caufield]

I think he’ll be better offensively than Suzuki. And once Montreal improves a little, Suzuki will probably top out as over a point per game player.
Nothing to indicate Catton won’t be a good two way player.

I’m not going to pretend to know what it would cost or who might play ball. I just think he’ll be long gone before 15. So I would be happy if we made an aggressive move to go up and get the player. In my view he is a different tier than the players around our range.