Congrats from a Finnish Koivu/TPS/Penguins fan (two out of three ain't bad)! I'm a draft enthusiast who had Aatos ranked #36. Not based on what he is today but based on how I project him. I was targeting him for the Pens' 46th overall pick. Ironically the Pens went with the Brendan Gallagher type Tanner Howe instead. I don't mind, that was a solid choice. But I digress.
I watched both Saku and Mikko Koivu play for TPS in their draft years (the former only accidentally as I was just a kid in 1992-93). I also discovered Hockey's Future in the summer/fall of 2001 as I was looking for news on Mikko. And I simply see way too many similarities to them in the way Aatos plays the game. Not that these three players are identical, but there’s something special about them.
It took Mikko Koivu years to produce in Europe or NA, but the lowest I ever ranked his ceiling was a 7.5 in HF terms (1st/2nd line center tweener). Yes, he struggled to stay on his feet in SM-liiga in his draft year. Yes, the production was unimpressive at pro level. But you could see the playmaking ability, the puck skills and the hockey sense. And most importantly, one look into his eyes was enough to convince me that this kid was never going to let anything stop him. Not that the determination didn’t show on the ice as well. Today I would rank Mikko third overall in a 2001 re-draft.
In the case of Aatos, the playmaking is clearly less advanced than that of Saku or Mikko at the same age. I can only speculate why that is. Perhaps he plays with his dominant hand on bottom, which decreases his passing control for now? But the fundamentals are there to work with. He has no problem spotting you and sending you on a breakaway if given the chance. He just needs to get used to higher tempo one step at a time. He already made several such steps in his draft season.
And the good thing is that his shot arsenal might already be the most advanced in the Koivu family. Now I don’t see the sniper instincts of a 30–40 goal scorer but I think he could develop into a legitimate double threat offensively. I really like the versatility of his skillset.
But unlike most, I don’t think the shot is his best quality against his peers – I think it’s his faceoff ability. He’s clearly taken some pointers from Saku/Mikko, as he led the entire U18 World Championships in faceoff win % (74). He lacks the upper body strength to fare similarly vs men, but for such a physically raw prospect, he’s exceptionally good.
And speaking of physical rawness, the sky seems to be his athletic limit. At the Combine he placed 7th in VO2max, ca. 25th in pro agility, and easily top 10 overall in the vertical and horizontal jumps. Also top 10 in anaerobic power output with the 19th lowest body fat %. Having to carry less weight obviously helped him but not all light players came even close to Aatos. Right now he almost seems to have the build of a high/ski jumper, very lean and explosive.
On the ice I don’t think he looks anywhere near as agile or elusive as Saku at a slightly older age (I didn’t pay attention to Saku until his draft+1 year), but Saku was also considerably shorter. And Aatos’ skating looks much more balanced and smoother than that of Mikko did in his draft year. That’s impressive for a kid who grew at least 6 inches in 18 months between the fall of 2022 and the spring of 2024. I’m no skating expert, but from everything I’ve read he seems to have the mechanics in place to benefit from any strength increase. I believe Aatos still has tons of runway to go from a physical/mobility perspective.
But it’s only after you combine the versatile skillset and athleticism with the typical Koivu family determination when things start to sound really interesting. The way he fights off checks, wins body positioning along the boards, reverse hits and uses the forehand to backhand move to protect the puck, plays at and sometimes crosses the very border of the rules… sooo much Koivu right there. If Aatos has even half the determination of his dad and uncle, he’s going to make the NHL. And based on what I’ve seen he does. My ranking is first and foremost a bet on his character. This family is special because they have the most important talent there is: the dedication to get better as a team player no matter what.
Aatos already wins the faceoffs to create a foundation for a strong 2-way center and works hard off the puck at both ends to win possession. He also recognizes his current defensive execution shortcomings. This is why I project him as a 3rd line 2-way center with the ceiling of a high-end #2 center. A lot depends on just how much his playmaking and patience on the puck improves once he adds the upper body strength to hold on to pucks longer. And as he has already seemed to experience the Koivu family tradition to get injured prior to his draft season, health is another key factor. Injuries are part of the reason Aatos is a late bloomer.
To conclude with a tongue in cheek, in a way I'm glad Aatos was drafted by the Canadiens as opposed to the Penguins. The only situation in which I would *not* draft a Koivu is if your team lacks a franchise player. The way this family seems to inspire their teammates to give 100 % on the ice makes it virtually impossible for their team to tank hard in the spring. And since the Koivus don’t quite have the overall talent to lead their teams to the Stanley Cup on their own, you’re in danger of achieving eternal mediocrity. But now that you have the young talent to surround him, all is well. Be patient and I believe you shall be rewarded!