Moore as a first rounder continues to perplex me.
His statistical profile is almost historically bad for a first rounder at the NTDP. I’ve found two first round forwards who’ve scored at a lower rate than his current .83 rate over the last 9 age groups that’ve been drafted.
Only two are John Beecher (.68) and Trent Frederic (.66). Both those players were also drafted for grit and toughness and all that. Basically drafted to be good bottom sixers at the end of the first round. No real illusion they’d be top six or middle six.
I’ve found undrafted players who’ve scored at a higher rate, a whole string of late round picks, a number of defensemen, and virtually all the bad first round picks people will think up in that span from the NTDP scored at a higher rate.
It would be one thing if Moore was being drafted based on enormous potential. It seems to me that he’s been anointed based on putting up some point totals last season (his numbers were not clear first round range last year either) and somehow that’s carrying over into this season. Almost like people feel the need to give the NTDP a few first rounders and he’s the agreeable choice for the lazy.
When you watch the games it seems the NHL projection is worse than the stats. You notice he’s floaty, bad defensively, very inconsistent in his offensive output, and he has the type of game where he looks like he’s using his above average athleticism to make some plays but he’s not overly cerebral or skilled. It doesn’t look like the type of offense that works in the NHL. A little like the offense you might’ve seen from a Beecher at this age (without the defense) and we see Beecher’s offense hasn’t translated to the NHL.
The claim might be made that Moore isn’t playing with the best linemates and that this isn’t a vintage NTDP age group. He’s third in PPG, third in shots per game. He’s fourth in assists. Tied for the lead in goals, but not as impressive as it may sound. Three others have the same amount of goals (including the projected first overall contenders Gallant and Kvasnicka) and Murtagh has that same amount of goals in half the number of games. So Moore’s not even doing well compared to his teammates.
