2024-25 USNTDP U18 Discussion

[Pavel Buchnevich]

They have to stop giving Boettiger starts. When you have three goalies, you have to cut the cord at some point with your worst performing goaltender, especially for a team that doesn’t score enough to win high scoring games. That he’s played the most so far is pathetic.

Quinlan should get 60% of the minutes, if this team wants a chance to win games consistently.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

On cue, 6-1 win over the Czechs getting outshot 34-28. Winlan with a good start. Has put up good starts now beating the Swedes and Czechs this tournament.

 

[jtechkid]

Pronman of Athletic came out with his draft today : - Has Moore 17 from ntdp and that’s it - has Potter 23 and Fiddler 26 for USA kids . He says it’s top heavy but overall a weak draft . fyi

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Moore as a first rounder continues to perplex me.

His statistical profile is almost historically bad for a first rounder at the NTDP. I’ve found two first round forwards who’ve scored at a lower rate than his current .83 rate over the last 9 age groups that’ve been drafted.

Only two are John Beecher (.68) and Trent Frederic (.66). Both those players were also drafted for grit and toughness and all that. Basically drafted to be good bottom sixers at the end of the first round. No real illusion they’d be top six or middle six.

I’ve found undrafted players who’ve scored at a higher rate, a whole string of late round picks, a number of defensemen, and virtually all the bad first round picks people will think up in that span from the NTDP scored at a higher rate.

It would be one thing if Moore was being drafted based on enormous potential. It seems to me that he’s been anointed based on putting up some point totals last season (his numbers were not clear first round range last year either) and somehow that’s carrying over into this season. Almost like people feel the need to give the NTDP a few first rounders and he’s the agreeable choice for the lazy.

When you watch the games it seems the NHL projection is worse than the stats. You notice he’s floaty, bad defensively, very inconsistent in his offensive output, and he has the type of game where he looks like he’s using his above average athleticism to make some plays but he’s not overly cerebral or skilled. It doesn’t look like the type of offense that works in the NHL. A little like the offense you might’ve seen from a Beecher at this age (without the defense) and we see Beecher’s offense hasn’t translated to the NHL.

The claim might be made that Moore isn’t playing with the best linemates and that this isn’t a vintage NTDP age group. He’s third in PPG, third in shots per game. He’s fourth in assists. Tied for the lead in goals, but not as impressive as it may sound. Three others have the same amount of goals (including the projected first overall contenders Gallant and Kvasnicka) and Murtagh has that same amount of goals in half the number of games. So Moore’s not even doing well compared to his teammates.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Moore as a first rounder continues to perplex me.

His statistical profile is almost historically bad for a first rounder at the NTDP. I’ve found two first round forwards who’ve scored at a lower rate than his current .83 rate over the last 9 age groups that’ve been drafted.

Only two are John Beecher (.68) and Trent Frederic (.66). Both those players were also drafted for grit and toughness and all that. Basically drafted to be good bottom sixers at the end of the first round. No real illusion they’d be top six or middle six.

I’ve found undrafted players who’ve scored at a higher rate, a whole string of late round picks, a number of defensemen, and virtually all the bad first round picks people will think up in that span from the NTDP scored at a higher rate.

It would be one thing if Moore was being drafted based on enormous potential. It seems to me that he’s been anointed based on putting up some point totals last season (his numbers were not clear first round range last year either) and somehow that’s carrying over into this season. Almost like people feel the need to give the NTDP a few first rounders and he’s the agreeable choice for the lazy.

When you watch the games it seems the NHL projection is worse than the stats. You notice he’s floaty, bad defensively, very inconsistent in his offensive output, and he has the type of game where he looks like he’s using his above average athleticism to make some plays but he’s not overly cerebral or skilled. It doesn’t look like the type of offense that works in the NHL. A little like the offense you might’ve seen from a Beecher at this age (without the defense) and we see Beecher’s offense hasn’t translated to the NHL.

The claim might be made that Moore isn’t playing with the best linemates and that this isn’t a vintage NTDP age group. He’s third in PPG, third in shots per game. He’s fourth in assists. Tied for the lead in goals, but not as impressive as it may sound. Three others have the same amount of goals (including the projected first overall contenders Gallant and Kvasnicka) and Murtagh has that same amount of goals in half the number of games. So Moore’s not even doing well compared to his teammates.

You probably have to go all the way back to the team of '95 borns to find an equally unimpressive USNTDP group.

 

[Corso]

You probably have to go all the way back to the team of '95 borns to find an equally unimpressive USNTDP group.

And yet the 08s may be even worse

 

[WarriorofTime]

And yet the 08s may be even worse

Berchild better than any 07 imo.

 

[jtechkid]

I wonder how many of this group goes back for another year of juniors and where do they play . I think 50-60% of this group would benifit from another year of juniors .

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

And yet the 08s may be even worse

I don't think they will be. They look a little better. More skill overall.

But very early to know for sure. And even though I don't think they're a vintage age group they did win the Youth Olympic Games earlier this year, so it's not all bad.

I wonder how many of this group goes back for another year of juniors and where do they play . I think 50-60% of this group would benifit from another year of juniors .

I think basically all other than Murtagh, Moore, Mooney, Fondrk, McKinney, Amico, Trethewey, and Quinlan should be considering it. Not that they all will need it (still more than half a season to play this year) and some are committed to better schools with more depth than others, but I agree that a lot of them could use it.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I wonder how many of this group goes back for another year of juniors and where do they play . I think 50-60% of this group would benifit from another year of juniors .

Junior, and yes, a lot of them will be deferred by their universities and told to go play another year of junior.

 

[Oak]

Junior, and yes, a lot of them will be deferred by their universities and told to go play another year of junior.

How many of them will go CHL?

Bad look for USA hockey to see their "best of best" go to Canada to develop further.

 

[WarriorofTime]

How many of them will go CHL?

Bad look for USA hockey to see their "best of best" go to Canada to develop further.

A decade ago half the team would go to the CHL (and not ncaa at all).

Is it a “bad look” for Hockey Canada that most of their “best of best” come to the USA to play professional?

 

[Bonin21]

Junior, and yes, a lot of them will be deferred by their universities and told to go play another year of junior.

I only recall us calling it juniors here in MN. Think you're overthinking it.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I only recall us calling it juniors here in MN. Think you're overthinking it.

Well it's wrong. Junior is the level of hockey, just like university or college is the level of schooling. You don't add an "s" to those just because there are multiple of them. It's a singular term because it is the level of hockey being described.