Do you open the bank because a guy has one good game? Because he had one key assist and a breakaway he didn’t finish. I need to see more. If we are comparing him to Connor for negotiating sake.
2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread
- Thread starter tbcwpg
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- Feb 24, 2015
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Funny thing this board turns on KFC and Ehlers fairly regularly.
One area Cheveldayoff excels at is cap management.
I think Ehlers is a must have.
I won’t speculate on the # because I have no clue what gets it done.
I simply hope Ehlers remains a Jet
The argument wasn’t whether we should keep or not the argument was numbers. @Flair Hay had the two separated by 750,000 I was speculating on numbers and arguing that Ehlers doesn’t have that kind of leverage.
Contract projections from @evolvinghockey for the Jets, hot of the presses. This assumes re-signing with the Jets. I don't think the Jets would go as high or long for Ehlers. Others look very reasonable. I doubt the Jets re-sign Appleton or Tanev at those levels, though.
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...and here are the projections for summer extensions Connor, Perfetti and Lowry, assuming a $104M cap in 2026/27.
- Feb 24, 2015
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We really don’t know what number keeps him here.
Only Ehlers and his agent know , hopefully there is negotiations happening.
I heard a rumour the Avs didnt want to pay Rantanen more than McKinnon which created the situation that came back to bite them in the ass.
I’m not saying Ehlers is that player but it’s entirely possible the Jets don’t want Ehlers making more than 37 and 55 regardless of cap space.
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Mud Turtle
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It still blows my mind that Ehlers has never been a point per game player.
Yes usage has been a factor but he’s so talented. He always looks like he should have superstar numbers but hasn’t got there yet.
- Feb 24, 2015
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Based on previous patterns, my guess is that a stalwart like Connor might sign long-term for a bit less than his value, along the lines of Scheifele and Hellebuyck. He really likes his gig with the Jets.
I think the Jets will give Ehlers a solid offer but will be reluctant to go that high for him. I think his future still hangs in the balance in these playoffs. If he comes alive and contributes to wins, it might bring the sides closer together. If he doesn't have a big impact, my guess is that both sides might look to turn the page.
I think players like Perfetti and Vilardi will be looking for full market value (as in the projections), and I think the Jets will likely give them that on long term deals if they want to stay.
I think the Jets might go a bit higher and longer than predicted for Samberg. He's a cornerstone that they'll want to lock up long-term.
So, my guesses for the key players...
Extensions...
Connor 8x11.5M
Perfetti 6x7M
Lowry 4x4.7M
Free agents...
Ehlers 7x8.5M
Vilardi 4x7.5M
Samberg 8x6.5M
Barron 4x3M
I think the Jets will give Ehlers a solid offer but will be reluctant to go that high for him. I think his future still hangs in the balance in these playoffs. If he comes alive and contributes to wins, it might bring the sides closer together. If he doesn't have a big impact, my guess is that both sides might look to turn the page.
I think players like Perfetti and Vilardi will be looking for full market value (as in the projections), and I think the Jets will likely give them that on long term deals if they want to stay.
I think the Jets might go a bit higher and longer than predicted for Samberg. He's a cornerstone that they'll want to lock up long-term.
So, my guesses for the key players...
Extensions...
Connor 8x11.5M
Perfetti 6x7M
Lowry 4x4.7M
Free agents...
Ehlers 7x8.5M
Vilardi 4x7.5M
Samberg 8x6.5M
Barron 4x3M
I have a hard time seeing them doing 7 years for Ehlers with his injury concerns. Six years at $8 million also is though for me but that is likely what it would take for him to consider staying.
The other contract projections that you shared seem reasonable.
I'd also be walking away from Appelton and Tanev at those numbers.
Based on the above guesses, and an assumed trade of Luke Schenn this off-season (for a late-round pick), below is a chart showing how the Jets could configure their roster next season (with about $1.6M in cap space remaining). If the Jets don't re-sign Ehlers, then I think they'll likely need to trade for a top-6 forward using prospect and draft capital. I wonder if the Jets might look to add a bit more size in their top-6. Would a Crouse for Lambert + pick(s) trade work for both sides (Lambert re-unites with his junior teammate, Guenther). It would be a risky trade for the Jets (within Division), but Crouse is a effective big winger who is probably undervalued due to low offensive production last season (after three straight 20-goal seasons). Regardless, if the Jets lose Ehlers to free agency, I think they need to plug that top-6 forward gap with a good forward that can contribute right away.
Ehlers is no rantanen. Rantenen has back to back hat tricks.
Ehlers gets to play with Perfetti, game 7 Connor produces with Lowry and Iafallo.
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Rantanen scored 50% more goals than Ehlers has scored in his entire playoff career in a span of three periods….
roccerfeller
jets bromantic
I will be surprised if Schenn gets traded. I think the Jets want to keep him going into next year. His parents are closer to Winnipeg and he said he will sort his family out in the summer once kids are done school. There's still a few weeks of school left so if he moves his family to Winnipeg next month, I don't see True North trading him again
- Feb 24, 2015
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Maybe. But his cap hit is fairly hefty, and he's going to be a healthy scratch tonight. If the Jets re-sign Ehlers and other top free agents, or if they look to acquire another top forward to replace Ehlers, they could be squeezed for cap space next season.
roccerfeller
jets bromantic
Xavier Laflamme
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All looks about right, I still think you need to give Ehlers 8x8.5 to keep him, there are other teams that will be happy to offer 7x9 or even 9.5, I also think the Jets will offer KFC something like 8x10m but he could probably get them to 11.5m, semantics really.
His family will have some say as well. If they aren't willing to move for a year then maybe you send him back for a late round pick.
WolfHouse
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Pretty funny to see stan projected reaching 4m as at.age 34...
you can't just gloss over usage. how many 2nd line ppg players are there at 16m a night? esp. when most of the career was pp2 as well.
this is from earlier this year, since '97 when the NHL started tracking TOI
it's rare to hit PPG at ~16m/gp or under.
imo i've always had ehlers in the 7.5-8m range, Vilardi a shade under that. i think those are fair deals for both of em. Connor is in a different tier than those 2.
Perfetti was trending close to Appleton's level of 5v5 scoring rate like 80% of the year. 2/3 Connor's Game 7 points were not with Lowry + Iafallo.
Don't think anyone has said he's in Rantanen's tier clearly Ratnanen, Connor are above him in scoring & will get paid more.
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Mud Turtle
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voyageur
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I don't see Barron as a 2C when he is losing 4C matchups to Sam Steel.
I think the Jets bring back Schenn, Haydn Fleury re-signs, Appleton re-signs, and Ehlers walks, replaced by whoever plays better between Chibrikov and Iafallo. I'd like to see Kupari come back but his head might be damaged. With at least 5 centers I'd keep JAD as 13, and send Gustafsson to the Moose, have him mentor Wagner.
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