2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Adam da bomb]

When the Jets re-signed Scheifele and Hellebuyck, continued to trade futures for rentals, and held onto own UFA rentals like Ehlers, Iafallo, Appleton, Pionk, they were in essence going all in on the past couple of seasons and the next few. They can't really go half-baked now. All of the main contenders have core players on contracts that will age poorly. Draisaitl will be making 14M at 37, Rantanen 12M through 37. McDavid will be making 16M+ as a 38 year old. On the Jets, Scheifele and Hellebuyck will be 37 in their last contract years, and Connor and Morrissey will follow them.

In contrast to other teams, the Jets core players will be making 2/3 or less of the salary of other top contenders' stars. More importantly, in contrast to many other contenders the Jets can't just take the 7M extra from letting Ehlers go to fill the roster via free agency. They are also constrained from getting prime players on the trade market due to trade restrictions. Also, you gotta give to get, and the Jets' prospect and pick pool has been diminished by years of trades.

Now is also a different cap world than when Wheeler and Schmidt contracts caused problems... the flat cap era created a crunch, but the big cap inflation of the next few years will create more than enough space for a team like the Jets that thrives with depth of talent.

Ehlers is a luxury that the Jets can afford, so why not keep him?

But it’s not just bout money the players could have all the money they want. Ehlers could just say yeah I am sick of not being the man. I want the top spot. He could want the beach.
So an extra million a year won’t help. We all want him to stay, but, how do we stay competitive if he wants out?
If they overpay by 2 mil per year going to mess up things up when paying Connor. It means becoming worse quicker by having guys who can’t earn more than league min.

 

[Whileee]

But it’s not just bout money the players could have all the money they want. Ehlers could just say yeah I am sick of not being the man. I want the top spot. He could want the beach.
So an extra million a year won’t help. We all want him to stay, but, how do we stay competitive if he wants out?
If they overpay by 2 mil per year going to mess up things up when paying Connor. It means becoming worse quicker by having guys who can’t earn more than league min.

I agree that if Ehlers wants to leave, then the discussion is moot. My assumption is that Ehlers would still be willing to negotiate and accept a long-term deal even if it's a bit longer and richer than some would like. Obviously, they can't upset the entire salary structure by paying him 1OM, but I think something in the 8x8-8.5M range would be worth it, all things considered.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I agree that if Ehlers wants to leave, then the discussion is moot. My assumption is that Ehlers would still be willing to negotiate and accept a long-term deal even if it's a bit longer and richer than some would like. Obviously, they can't upset the entire salary structure by paying him 1OM, but I think something in the 8x8-8.5M range would be worth it, all things considered.

Okay, and hopefully all the discussions bout him going are moot. I wonder if we even can compete without him last night we looked bad.

 

[Flair Hay]

Does that taken into consideration that he would be playing 41 games out of that tax free state?
How many tax free states are there that have an NHL team? Does anybody know?

It does, I'm not sure how "exact" my numbers are but i did ask the AI to take that into account. Its a good rough estimate. My understanding is it's Florida (FLA, TB), Texas (DAL), Nevada (VGK), Tennessee (NSH) and Washington (SEA) for tax free teams.

Ehlers would take home $37.64M in a no-tax state on a 7-year, $9M AAV deal, compared to $36.07M in Winnipeg on an 8-year, $8.5M AAV deal. The no-tax state offers ~$1.57M more in net pay, showing that even with Winnipeg’s extra year, the tax advantage in a no-tax state can outweigh it at these AAVs. The duty-day method ensures this reflects real-world tax distribution

 

[10Ducky10]

It does, I'm not sure how "exact" my numbers are but i did ask the AI to take that into account. Its a good rough estimate. My understanding is it's Florida (FLA, TB), Texas (DAL), Nevada (VGK), Tennessee (NSH) and Washington (SEA) for tax free teams.

Ehlers would take home $37.64M in a no-tax state on a 7-year, $9M AAV deal, compared to $36.07M in Winnipeg on an 8-year, $8.5M AAV deal. The no-tax state offers ~$1.57M more in net pay, showing that even with Winnipeg’s extra year, the tax advantage in a no-tax state can outweigh it at these AAVs. The duty-day method ensures this reflects real-world tax distribution

That doesn't make sense to me because they are playing in different conferences so they are playing different teams away meaning different taxes?

 

[Flair Hay]

That doesn't make sense to me because they are playing in different conferences so they are playing different teams away meaning different taxes?

I'm sure it can be broken down team by team - but even then you'd need a schedule. Think of it as a good idea of the differences tax free states use to their advantage and not something I am trying to provide with pinpoint accuracy.

 

[KingBogo]

I agree that if Ehlers wants to leave, then the discussion is moot. My assumption is that Ehlers would still be willing to negotiate and accept a long-term deal even if it's a bit longer and richer than some would like. Obviously, they can't upset the entire salary structure by paying him 1OM, but I think something in the 8x8-8.5M range would be worth it, all things considered.

I think most people around here would be happy with something around 8 X $8-$8.5.

 

[Jet]

Okay, and hopefully all the discussions bout him going are moot. I wonder if we even can compete without him last night we looked bad.

Come on. You're saying Ehlers not playing was the reason the Jets didn't show up in the first period?

 

[GNP]

The argument against that is it’s ehlers decision to stay or go. The team will offer him a fair deal and whether he accepts it is up to him.
That fair deal includes a reasonable overpay. Paying him an overpay that doesn’t paint them into a corner is fair.

Posters should bear in mind, that a little overpay for Ehlers is smart $$ business.
Each playoff home game the Jets play brings in $ 3.8 million per game. (15,200 X $ 250 seat) Ehlers has proven this year he’s about an 80 point player, and he’ll go a long way to help the Jets make the playoffs. He makes that 2nd line lethal, as well as the power
play # 1.

If I was the owner, I would want that playoff revenue at $3.8 mil per game, that you may not get, if Ehlers leaves for another team. If Ehlers contributes to the team going to the 2nd round, you could have 6 playoff games @ $ 3.8 mil, which is roughly $ 20 million bucs.

I would not want to risk losing that revenue if I was Chipman, and would not mind an overpay to seal the deal on an Ehlers contract.

 

[Gm0ney]

Danes are hella pissed at the US right now. Ehlers might not want to play there regardless of the tax benefits.

 

[tarozi]

Danes are hella pissed at the US right now. Ehlers might not want to play there regardless of the tax benefits.

That is possible the worst take all year. I can guarantee Ehlers is not thinking about tarrifs or Trump. wow

 

[Weezeric]

Posters should bear in mind, that a little overpay for Ehlers is smart $$ business.
Each playoff home game the Jets play brings in $ 3.8 million per game. (15,200 X $ 250 seat) Ehlers has proven this year he’s about an 80 point player, and he’ll go a long way to help the Jets make the playoffs. He makes that 2nd line lethal, as well as the power
play # 1.

If I was the owner, I would want that playoff revenue at $3.8 mil per game, that you may not get, if Ehlers leaves for another team. If Ehlers contributes to the team going to the 2nd round, you could have 6 playoff games @ $ 3.8 mil, which is roughly $ 20 million bucs.

I would not want to risk losing that revenue if I was Chipman, and would not mind an overpay to seal the deal on an Ehlers contract.

How has he proven he’s an 80 point player? He has 63 points and has never scored 65 points in a season…

 

[GNP]

How has he proven he’s an 80 point player? He has 63 points and has never scored 65 points in a season…

Ehlers has missed about 10 games, so add that on to your 63, and now you have 73, with 6 games left. Last time I checked the scoring race, Nik was averaging a little over a point per game.

Only downside with Nik, is he’s a little fragile, and rarely plays all 82 games in a season. With his speed, he also opens up a lot of ice, as defenders back off.

I think he’s easily worth the money, and we need him.

 

[GNP]

Danes are hella pissed at the US right now.Ehlers might not want to play there regardless of the tax benefits.

You make a real good point here, and you never know how someone, or some country is reacting right now.

I know a lot of people, are not at all happy with the politics going down in the US, ( tariffs etc.) and it may have an influence on a player, You never know, how someone thinks, especially Danes?

 

[10Ducky10]

Owners keep 65% of playoff ticket revenue.
The league takes 35% of playoff ticket revenue.

 

[Board Bard]

That is possible the worst take all year. I can guarantee Ehlers is not thinking about tarrifs or Trump. wow

Unlike you, Ehlers has heard of Greenland.

 

[GNP]

Unlike you, Ehlers has heard of Greenland.

Exactly right and their pissed off their being pushed around, and disrespected, by the US.

 

[Gm0ney]

You make a real good point here, and you never know how someone, or some country is reacting right now.

I know a lot of people, are not at all happy with the politics going down in the US, ( tariffs etc.) and it may have an influence on a player, You never know, how someone thinks, especially Danes?

This is from over 2 months ago (as the article itself helpfully points out) and I don't think the mood has improved much since then.

Nearly half of Danes see US as threat and 78% oppose Greenland sale, poll shows

Exclusive: More Danish people regard US as a threat than see North Korea or Iran as danger

www.theguardian.com

 

[tarozi]

Unlike you, Ehlers has heard of Greenland.

And and NHL player payed in $US cares about Greenland because why.... Oh yah, cause you think so. Got it

 

[Gm0ney]

And and NHL player payed in $US cares about Greenland because why.... Oh yah, cause you think so. Got it

I think it's possible that a guy from Denmark, who plays for their national team, goes home there every summer, and whose family all lives there, might take exception to the current situation south of the border and if he has the option to play in Canada for the rest of his career, he might prefer that over a few tax dollars.

But yeah, that's just my opinion (supported by reasoning). What exactly is your reasoning for so vehemently denying the possibility I suggested?

 

[WolfHouse]

I didnt think the ehlers convo could get more insane this season... but here we are.

 

[Buffdog]

I think it's possible that a guy from Denmark, who plays for their national team, goes home there every summer, and whose family all lives there, might take exception to the current situation south of the border and if he has the option to play in Canada for the rest of his career, he might prefer that over a few tax dollars.

But yeah, that's just my opinion (supported by reasoning). What exactly is your reasoning for so vehemently denying the possibility I suggested?

Not all Danes think the same, just like not all Canadians and Americans. The flaw in your reasoning is the assumption that they do (or at least that Ehlers shares whatever views ypu thinks that Danes share)

For all you know, he could have a hat rack full of MAGA hats. Even if he doesn't, does he care about "orange man bad" enough to give up the chance to earn millions of dollars in the location that he desires? That opinion is such a stretch that should it have some proof rather than just sound reasoning

 

[Gm0ney]

Not all Danes think the same, just like not all Canadians and Americans. The flaw in your reasoning is the assumption that they do (or at least that Ehlers shares whatever views ypu thinks that Danes share)

For all you know, he could have a hat rack full of MAGA hats. Even if he doesn't, does he care about "orange man bad" enough to give up the chance to earn millions of dollars in the location that he desires? That opinion is such a stretch that should it have some proof rather than just sound reasoning

Well, Ehlers doesn't come across as an idiot...

I think that it's entirely possible that his desired location may be swayed by current events...events that directly impact the country he suits up for internationally at every opportunity, where he returns every offseason, where his family lives. Is that crazy talk? Is that a controversial opinion? Apparently so...?

"Sound reasoning" should be enough to form an opinion around here...there are certainly opinions floating around with less than that.

 

[Jets 31]

I want Ehlers re-signed , he's a entertaining player to watch but obviously there is limit to how much you give him. Let's remember , alot of people are pissed at our playoff record and Ehlers at 4 goals and 10 assists in 37 playoff games isn't helping with that. Again i want him re-signed though because he's a good player that's fun to watch play.

 

[RestlessYoungZero]

And and NHL player payed in $US cares about Greenland because why.... Oh yah, cause you think so. Got it

Some people actually have morals and care about friends and family.