2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[surixon]

Yeah I'd say both are very hard to replace but as we've seen it's easier to replace winger scoring than top 4 D.

We've been without a few of our top scorers through the season and we're still 3rd in GF.

IF Nik leaves, we will need some internal help and maybe a FA add to recapture the loss.

Cole is about 20 points shy of Ehlers this year. Considering he's had big growth this year, and if he can avoid that mid season lull, I bet he can bridge that gap next year.

Then we have to recoup Cole's likely 55 points from this year.

If Chibby or Lambo (or both) come in, I'd bet we get a good part of the way there.

If Vilardi manages to stay healthy that could be a few more points to assist.

Obviously a lot would have to go right, and we'd lose the dynamic play that Nik provides, but I don't think its nearly as dire to lose Ehlers as it's being made out to be.

Yup, plus the team could also trade for another top 6 or middle 6 asset to help which might allow us to push Namestnikov to line 3 and maybe that helps that line score a bit more as well.

This team really blossomed when we added quality two-way depth to out middle 6. Perhaps that will be how Chevy plans on going about it I'd Fly walks.

 

[ps241]

Chevy's plan is the big unknown. Ehlers and Pionk are probably the 2 most important Jets players that Chevy has allowed to walk up to UFA status. Historically he has either re-signed or traded players prior to the TDL of their UFA season or traded them going into their pending UFA season. Up until now the most important players that have played out their UFA seasons in a Jets uniform is Frolik, Myers and Dilion. Important players at the time, but none would be considered core. The question for me is what is different this year? Does Chevy believe he has a true contender and is throwing caution to the wind? Are the player askes beyond what he wants to pay? Does he believe the players aren't worth what they are asking for? Does he know he can re-sign them and wants to see the season play out? Man I'd love to know what Chevy knows.

I am comfortable knowing I don’t have a sniff but Chevy would have a good idea about his contingencies. It will make the time after our season ends up to July 1st more fun.

 

[Jet]

Yup, plus the team could also trade for another top 6 or middle 6 asset to help which might allow us to push Namestnikov to line 3 and maybe that helps that line score a bit more as well.

This team really blossomed when we added quality two-way depth to out middle 6. Perhaps that will be how Chevy plans on going about it I'd Fly walks.

It'll be a tough task but that's exactly what I was thinking.

 

[ps241]

I understand why people are in the must keep Ehlers camp. He's a net positive player, really exciting, super likeable, and has been here a long time.

However, he's likely the best he'll ever be, and considering his extremely significant core injury, the fact that he is injury prone, and his reliance on his speed to play his game, he's likely to not age well and his play is likely to fall off a cliff.

I'll remind people that Wheeler signed his legacy contract after b2b 91 point seasons, beloved, and our captain.

That did not age well.

I don’t dispute most of what you are saying, however, I would be comfortable with his next 3 seasons and that is realistically our window. Schiefele will be 35 at that point and Helle will be 34 with lots of miles on the body. We don’t really have any clear replacements (#1 Centre and best goalie in the NHL) coming up after this group so these guys will need to be the cup drivers and I would not bank on anything past this season and 3 more. That is why and Ehlers deal carries less risk. You don’t need him to be productive for the length of his contract. If we had a high end group of prospects in the pipeline I would look at this much differently.

To be clear if this is it for Nik and he is just an own rental I will be at piece with it.

 

[Jet]

I don’t dispute most of what you are saying, however, I would be comfortable with his next 3 seasons and that is realistically our window. Schiefele will be 35 at that point and Helle will be 34 with lots of miles on the body. We don’t really have any clear replacements (#1 Centre and best goalie in the NHL) coming up after this group so these guys will need to be the cup drivers and I would not bank on anything past this season and 3 more. That is why and Ehlers deal carries less risk. You don’t need him to be productive for the length of his contract. If we had a high end group of prospects in the pipeline I would look at this much differently.

To be clear if this is it for Nik and he is just an own rental I will be at piece with it.

I think it really comes down to his performance in these playoffs.

 

[KingBogo]

It will be a fascinating offseason.

And let's all hope we have the comfort of a cup win to fall back on, as we all debate who should be re-signed and for how much.

 

[Gil Fisher]

It will be a fascinating offseason.

I say this almost every year.

Fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice, uh, won't get fooled again.

 

[Jetsetter]

In Chevy we trust! I'll take 2 X 44 and 4 X 54 on D. There's so much to like about the style the Jets play and the 4 line depth. Speed and never give up effort!

 

[blueandgoldguy]

I understand why people are in the must keep Ehlers camp. He's a net positive player, really exciting, super likeable, and has been here a long time.

However, he's likely the best he'll ever be, and considering his extremely significant core injury, the fact that he is injury prone, and his reliance on his speed to play his game, he's likely to not age well and his play is likely to fall off a cliff.

I'll remind people that Wheeler signed his legacy contract after b2b 91 point seasons, beloved, and our captain.

That did not age well.

Wheeler's contract kicked in when he was 33, Nick's would kick in at 29.

 

[ps241]

I think it really comes down to his performance in these playoffs.

That may be the case.

 

[scelaton]

Chevy's plan is the big unknown. Ehlers and Pionk are probably the 2 most important Jets players that Chevy has allowed to walk up to UFA status. Historically he has either re-signed or traded players prior to the TDL of their UFA season or traded them going into their pending UFA season. Up until now the most important players that have played out their UFA seasons in a Jets uniform is Frolik, Myers and Dilion. Important players at the time, but none would be considered core. The question for me is what is different this year? Does Chevy believe he has a true contender and is throwing caution to the wind? Are the player askes beyond what he wants to pay? Does he believe the players aren't worth what they are asking for? Does he know he can re-sign them and wants to see the season play out? Man I'd love to know what Chevy knows.

All interesting questions and I think the bolded are true.

It's also worth speculating on what the players may be thinking or hearing from their agents that make their asks higher than what Chevy wants to pay.

Ehlers is on track for a career year, a function of exceptional talent and increased opportunity. This will be his opportunity to cash in and have a starring role on a team of his choice, one that is perhaps closer to home. If I am his agent, $9Mx7 is my ask, knowing that will almost certainly be available as a UFA. That may be a bit much for Chevy, for reasons we have discussed at length.

Pionk is also having an exceptional year, but, in addition to talent is being carried by a perfect D partner and team success, which have give his boxscores and advanced stats additional luster. I think he'd like to stay in Wpg more than Ehlers, but for an undrafted, small, defensively imperfect player to be in a position to ask for a $50M contract ($7.14Mx7) is an unbelievable opportunity. That's the market for a top-30 P/GP RD in this league, but it's a lot a money for Chevy to pay, knowing what he knows about the player.

The NHL is an inefficient market--Chevy understands both players' intrinsic value and inherent risks better than the rest of the league. That's an advantage to both players agents and makes Chevy's job that much harder.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Can Nik sign an 8 year contract with us after July 1?

Is there still a one-week period ahead of July 1 that free agents can talk with other teams?

 

[Daximus]

Can Nik sign an 8 year contract with us after July 1?

Is there still a one-week period ahead of July 1 that free agents can talk with other teams?

Yeah as long as the player is on your reserve list as of the most recent trade deadline then you can offer them 8 years. So even if Ehlers doesn't sign until September we would still be the only team that can offer him 8 years.

 

[Whileee]

Yeah I'd say both are very hard to replace but as we've seen it's easier to replace winger scoring than top 4 D.

We've been without a few of our top scorers through the season and we're still 3rd in GF.

IF Nik leaves, we will need some internal help and maybe a FA add to recapture the loss.

Cole is about 20 points shy of Ehlers this year. Considering he's had big growth this year, and if he can avoid that mid season lull, I bet he can bridge that gap next year.

Then we have to recoup Cole's likely 55 points from this year.

If Chibby or Lambo (or both) come in, I'd bet we get a good part of the way there.

If Vilardi manages to stay healthy that could be a few more points to assist.

Obviously a lot would have to go right, and we'd lose the dynamic play that Nik provides, but I don't think its nearly as dire to lose Ehlers as it's being made out to be.

My point continues to be, why not add these improvements to Ehlers instead of struggling to replace him. Jets are in their prime window, they can't really replace him through free agency, and the Jets have plenty of future cap space to keep Ehlers, even with a bit of an overpay.

They might be able to replace him, but it would likely only be by trading a couple of valuable futures.

 

[10Ducky10]

If Ehlers is offered 7 x 9m, that equals 63m.
If the Jets offer 8 x 8.5m, that equals 68m.

 

[Flair Hay]

If Ehlers is offered 7 x 9m, that equals 63m.
If the Jets offer 8 x 8.5m, that equals 68m.

The one hangup is a tax free state can make him this $9M offer and his take home would be $1.5M more in the 7 year deal than the 8 year deal in Winnipeg.

That's the biggest threat to deal with.

 

[10Ducky10]

The one hangup is a tax free state can make him this $9M offer and his take home would be $1.5M more in the 7 year deal than the 8 year deal in Winnipeg.

That's the biggest threat to deal with.

Does that taken into consideration that he would be playing 41 games out of that tax free state?
How many tax free states are there that have an NHL team? Does anybody know?

 

[surixon]

There are other things like signing bonuses that can play a role. The Jets don't tend to offer as much bonuses as some teams.

 

[10Ducky10]

There are other things like signing bonuses that can play a role. The Jets don't tend to offer as much bonuses as some teams.

I think Helle and Scheifele are making 10m this year?

 

[surixon]

I think Helle and Scheifele are making 10m this year?

They have a $5 million signing bonus each this year and $5 million in additional salary according to puckpedia. But there isn't any other bonus payments in their contracts according to puckpedia.

Other orgs will give massive bonus payments each year.

 

[10Ducky10]

I think Helle and Scheifele are making 10m this year?

I just checked, they were making 10 million next year too.
On a side note, JMo is only making 4.8 million for the next three seasons!!!

 

[10Ducky10]

They have a $5 million signing bonus each this year and $5 million in additional salary according to puckpedia. But there isn't any other bonus payments in their contracts according to puckpedia.

Other orgs will give massive bonus payments each year.

TO is good for that.

 

[Jet]

My point continues to be, why not add these improvements to Ehlers instead of struggling to replace him. Jets are in their prime window, they can't really replace him through free agency, and the Jets have plenty of future cap space to keep Ehlers, even with a bit of an overpay.

They might be able to replace him, but it would likely only be by trading a couple of valuable futures.

I'm not really arguing against that, but more about which would be harder to replace, and, in my opinion both sides appetite to get a deal done.

Is be very happy to see Nik stay, though if he's ineffective in the playoffs again I'll probably have a different opinion on that.

 

[Adam da bomb]

My point continues to be, why not add these improvements to Ehlers instead of struggling to replace him. Jets are in their prime window, they can't really replace him through free agency, and the Jets have plenty of future cap space to keep Ehlers, even with a bit of an overpay.

They might be able to replace him, but it would likely only be by trading a couple of valuable futures.

The argument against that is it’s ehlers decision to stay or go. The team will offer him a fair deal and whether he accepts it is up to him.
That fair deal includes a reasonable overpay. Paying him an overpay that doesn’t paint them into a corner is fair.

 

[Whileee]

When the Jets re-signed Scheifele and Hellebuyck, continued to trade futures for rentals, and held onto own UFA rentals like Ehlers, Iafallo, Appleton, Pionk, they were in essence going all in on the past couple of seasons and the next few. They can't really go half-baked now. All of the main contenders have core players on contracts that will age poorly. Draisaitl will be making 14M at 37, Rantanen 12M through 37. McDavid will be making 16M+ as a 38 year old. On the Jets, Scheifele and Hellebuyck will be 37 in their last contract years, and Connor and Morrissey will follow them.

In contrast to other teams, the Jets core players will be making 2/3 or less of the salary of other top contenders' stars. More importantly, in contrast to many other contenders the Jets can't just take the 7M extra from letting Ehlers go to fill the roster via free agency. They are also constrained from getting prime players on the trade market due to trade restrictions. Also, you gotta give to get, and the Jets' prospect and pick pool has been diminished by years of trades.

Now is also a different cap world than when Wheeler and Schmidt contracts caused problems... the flat cap era created a crunch, but the big cap inflation of the next few years will create more than enough space for a team like the Jets that thrives with depth of talent.

Ehlers is a luxury that the Jets can afford, so why not keep him?