Umm right now that is Namestnikov last time i checked and he isn't the best 2nd center in the league but right now this Jets team is the best in the NHL . Job well done by Chevy.
Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread
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I'll wait until the honeymoon period wears off for him in Ottawa. He got out of a bad situation and he'll be energized by it. How he looks in another 10 games or next year will sy way more to me.
We see it with a lot of players. Tomasino shot the lights out his first q0 in Pittaburgh only to dissappear after. Glass is on a heater in Jersey right now as well, will that last. I'd like to see it but doubtful given his history.
Absolutely, the usage is the outlier, not how much he is scoring with him healthy most of the year.Exactly, Ehlers is getting PP1 time. 80 pts is not an outlier for Ehlers. It is a result of better usage that he should have been getting for years.
True, Pionk gets little PP time. I still think of defencemen as primarily defenders though. Not that I don't like their scoring, but I want to see defence first. I guess I'm a little old-fashioned that way.
Ehlers is a 60 point winger with 90 point potential, that's a different value than your average 60 point winger.
I agree that Pionk has peforned great for his role this year. Him and Samberg have been better than the sum of their parts which is what you aim for.
That said, we could probably throw Miller in Pionk's role and he could replace 35 of those 40 points, at a fraction of the AAV. Not that I'm advocating for that. Just speaking to the claim the offense is more difficult to replace.
Ok, well, in technical terms 80 points is indeed an outlier for Ehlers. You have to consider why usage is an outlier for Nik this year, and also games played. If Nikita Chibrikov played 82 games according to his career stats line he'd be a 49 goal scorer and that's with limited minutes. I know that's a pretty flimsy example given his game played but it's an exaggeration to make a point. You don't score 80 points in a season until you do, and even if Nik does, he's only done it once in his 10 seasons.
Going back to Pionk, if we're going to use the usage argument, he gets second pair minutes and very little pp time. If he was a 1D with 24 minutes a night and PP1 time he'd probably be a 50 point guy. As to that the fact that he's a true RD and that just adds value.
At the end of the day, you can't judge these guys on what they could be with ideal usage, you have to judge them on how they are used on the Jets, which is a more accurate value of them to the team.
Pionk plays RD on a team that is thin organizationally there (as are many NHL teams). He creates offense 5v5 and penalty kills.
Ehlers is a 60 point winger who doesn't penalty kill. He's defensively sounds which is a feather in his cap.
The point I'm trying to make is to disrupt the notion that is crazy to think the Jets are prioritizing Pionk re signing over Ehlers. Heck, it could be wrong, but there is a very logical argument to be made for it.
If you had to go to market to shop for a 40 point, pking 2RD, (really he's the Jets 1RD) over a 60 point, defensively sound winger, who would you rather have to shop for?
How many of each of those do you think exist in the market? How likely are other teams to part with either?
But you need offensive defensemen to allow your forwards to score. Remember when we had the exodus of defensemen? We struggled to score because our D couldn't help them generate offense.Exactly, Ehlers is getting PP1 time. 80 pts is not an outlier for Ehlers. It is a result of better usage that he should have been getting for years.
True, Pionk gets little PP time. I still think of defencemen as primarily defenders though. Not that I don't like their scoring, but I want to see defence first. I guess I'm a little old-fashioned that way.
everyone on the PP is benefitting from it's improved scoring this year.
Pionk has 11 PP points (so far), he had 11 last 2 seasons combined (PP2)
Ehlers has 21 PP points (so far), he had 19 the last 2 seasons combined (PP2->PP1)
not sure if this rate is replicable year-in year-out or on a different team, however it came at the right time for new contracts.
Pionk has 11 PP points (so far), he had 11 last 2 seasons combined (PP2)
Ehlers has 21 PP points (so far), he had 19 the last 2 seasons combined (PP2->PP1)
not sure if this rate is replicable year-in year-out or on a different team, however it came at the right time for new contracts.
I think that’s the disappointment with chevy. It’s easy to say Winnipeg is on every no trade list and free agents don’t want to come here. It’s not always true. But there have been players available and chevy needs to target them aggressively.
Dylan Strome comes to mind.
As difficult as it can be, if the current window closes with minimal playoff success it will be on chevy because it’s his job.
I think it's valid to suggest Ehlers' production has not changed, only his usage has. Calling 80 points an outlier for a winger having some kind of magical season with high shot% and everything going right for him would make sense but that's not the situation. It's pretty reasonable IMO to think that with PP1 and higher TOI this is what Ehlers is, since it's the first time it's been tried, and his production has always been the same and predictive of it.
Sure, I see that argument - but I still think my point stands. If you're going to measure Nik that was you have to measure Neal the same way, no?
id say a couple things regards to usage have changed YoY
23-24;
primarily PP2
409 mins (38% of total 5v5 TOI) with top-line (using scheifele as reference)
24-25
primarily pp1
60 mins (8% of total 5v5 TOI) with scheifele
Overall PP improvement & PP1 inclusion matters a lot ofc, and would be a primary driver for most players. to put it his season in perspective a bit more,
player/ppg/pp unit/top line TOI (%):
vilardi/0.9ppg/pp1/92%
ehlers/1ppg/pp1/8%
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Yeah only if we went out and got someone like Strome, we'd be first in the league.
Oh, wait.
Bookmarked. But, QQ - if we would have gone out and got a Strome, or other player of your choosing:
- what would it have cost?
- what would be the disparity between where we are going to finish this year (in terms of playoffs) and where we would with the acquisition.
Put your money where your mouth is.
Strome would likely be a small upgrade on Namestnikov offensively but likely a downgrade in all other elements of the game. Not at all interested in paying a 1st plus for a marginal at best upgrade.
Really it was Nelson or bust for me. Since we didn't get him I wasn't really interested in anyone else on the market unless they came really cheap.
I'm still interested in this poster defining some of these things.
If he's going to try and hold the Jets to winning the cup or bust, I want to know exactly what he thinks getting a Strome was going to do.
It's cool to be super vague and then telling people "I told you so" after, when the fact of the matter is it's incredibly difficult to win the cup.
The Jets have spent multiple assets trying to upgrade the C spot and only one year did it help us make a deep run.
A single positional upgrade isn't going to materially impact this teams chances.
It's up to Helle, JoMo, Scheifele and KC to really carry the mail and then it's up to everyone else to backfill behind them and provide high end support.
Yeah, that's my line of thinking. If the core of this team is going to play like they did last year, not even Connor McDavid would be able to change the result.
Xavier Laflamme
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- Jan 21, 2025
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Yeah exactly, you can have all the talent in the world but if your core guys don't perform it's not going to matter, obviously we still need to see the boys really show up come post season, lets hope this is the year.
Has Pionk's usage changed this year? Besides having Samberg as his regular partner (as opposed to Dillon the last couple of seasons).
He and Samberg are very good together. Morrissey's our 1LD, so keeping those two together as a second pairing shouldn't be a problem.
I think people's memories of Pionk's continual defensive gaffes has been overwritten, because he's done a good job of limiting that stuff this season, but he was pretty bad for a lot of the 3 seasons prior to this one.
Buffdog
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- Feb 13, 2019
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No, 80 point is an outlier. If you were to graph his point totals for his career, that dot doesn't belong with the others
Now... it's completely valid to discuss why that outlier exists (usage) or to say that his 5v5 p/60 is different or something... but let's not change the definition of the word "outlier". That's up there with cherry picking data points
Not really. It's hard for us to really know why Pionk has been so good this year. He's shown it in spurts before, along with some pretty horrid play. He's also had injuries, both physical and emotional to deal with.
It's hard to predict what we'll get with Neal if we re-sign him, but, what we do know is that we will have a pretty momentus task of replacing him if he goes.
Ehlers on the other hand I think is much easier to replace. I'm not saying he's not valuable, that I don't like him, or that he won't be missed. I just think when you look at the market it's just a reality.
We might even be able to replace Ehlers in house. That of course would require one of our guys to take a significant leap.
So, basically the point I'm trying to make is the team probably prioritizes re-signing Neal because he'd be harder to replace.
Absolutely, I think Pionk proved in the right environment he can add some plus value compared to his AAV. That was a question before. Samberg pairing has changed that.
I think he is playing at a top pair level this year (ie: top 60). Not a second #1, bit a guy who is a plus on any team.
I think Ehlers is a key cog during the regular season to get the Jets into a strong playoff position. He generates 5v5 offense playing with limited linemates like Namestnikov and Perfetti while unlocking a lot of the firepower on the PP. Without him the Jets' offense is very top heavy, and easy to shut down. We saw last night and frequently through the season that Ehlers creates secondary offense when the top line is in the doldrums. I highly doubt that Chibrikov or Lambert will come close to generating the secondary offense that Ehlers does. Consider that Perfetti was more productive than either Chibrikov or Lambert at the AHL level when he was 18 and 19 but has taken a few years to create offense at the NHL level.
So for me there is really no question as to Ehlers' high value during the regular season. Is contributing substantially to making the playoffs valuable enough for an 8-9M AAV? I'm not sure, but the first task in the NHL is to make the playoffs and that won't be a given next year and beyond.
If Ehlers has a good playoff performance this year, then I think it would be foolish for the Jets to not try hard to re-sign him. They really have no other avenue to add premium offensive talent in the short term. Spending $8M to re-sign Appleton and Iafallo doesn't move the needle if the Jets end up as a one-line team offensively.
Theoretically, replacing a scoring 2nd line winger is easier than replacing a scoring 2nd pairing RD, I suppose.
But I think Ehlers is really a Top 3 winger. And his particular skillset is pretty unique. I don't see anyone remotely close to him in-house. Or willing/available to sign here.
I think in terms of the team's success over the next few years, we'd have a better shot of filling the hole left by Pionk well enough to compete vs. the hole left by Ehlers.
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