Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

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The 2C is the friends we made along the way.

Kinda still upset we didn't get Cozens, dude has looked great so far for the Sens, I know we didn't have the assets to make the trade but I still wanted him on the Jets.

I'll wait until the honeymoon period wears off for him in Ottawa. He got out of a bad situation and he'll be energized by it. How he looks in another 10 games or next year will sy way more to me.

We see it with a lot of players. Tomasino shot the lights out his first q0 in Pittaburgh only to dissappear after. Glass is on a heater in Jersey right now as well, will that last. I'd like to see it but doubtful given his history.
 
Exactly, Ehlers is getting PP1 time. 80 pts is not an outlier for Ehlers. It is a result of better usage that he should have been getting for years.

True, Pionk gets little PP time. I still think of defencemen as primarily defenders though. Not that I don't like their scoring, but I want to see defence first. I guess I'm a little old-fashioned that way. :laugh:
Absolutely, the usage is the outlier, not how much he is scoring with him healthy most of the year.

Ehlers is a 60 point winger with 90 point potential, that's a different value than your average 60 point winger.

Its easier to replace a 2nd line 60 point winger than a 40 point RHD
I agree that Pionk has peforned great for his role this year. Him and Samberg have been better than the sum of their parts which is what you aim for.

That said, we could probably throw Miller in Pionk's role and he could replace 35 of those 40 points, at a fraction of the AAV. Not that I'm advocating for that. Just speaking to the claim the offense is more difficult to replace.
 
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Absolutely, the usage is the outlier, not how much he is scoring with him healthy most of the year.

Ehlers is a 60 point winger with 90 point potential, that's a different value than your average 60 point winger.


I agree that Pionk has peforned great for his role this year. Him and Samberg have been better than the sum of their parts which is what you aim for.

That said, we could probably throw Miller in Pionk's role and he could replace 35 of those 40 points, at a fraction of the AAV. Not that I'm advocating for that. Just speaking to the claim the offense is more difficult to replace.
Ok, well, in technical terms 80 points is indeed an outlier for Ehlers. You have to consider why usage is an outlier for Nik this year, and also games played. If Nikita Chibrikov played 82 games according to his career stats line he'd be a 49 goal scorer and that's with limited minutes. I know that's a pretty flimsy example given his game played but it's an exaggeration to make a point. You don't score 80 points in a season until you do, and even if Nik does, he's only done it once in his 10 seasons.

Going back to Pionk, if we're going to use the usage argument, he gets second pair minutes and very little pp time. If he was a 1D with 24 minutes a night and PP1 time he'd probably be a 50 point guy. As to that the fact that he's a true RD and that just adds value.

At the end of the day, you can't judge these guys on what they could be with ideal usage, you have to judge them on how they are used on the Jets, which is a more accurate value of them to the team.

Pionk plays RD on a team that is thin organizationally there (as are many NHL teams). He creates offense 5v5 and penalty kills.

Ehlers is a 60 point winger who doesn't penalty kill. He's defensively sounds which is a feather in his cap.

The point I'm trying to make is to disrupt the notion that is crazy to think the Jets are prioritizing Pionk re signing over Ehlers. Heck, it could be wrong, but there is a very logical argument to be made for it.

If you had to go to market to shop for a 40 point, pking 2RD, (really he's the Jets 1RD) over a 60 point, defensively sound winger, who would you rather have to shop for?

How many of each of those do you think exist in the market? How likely are other teams to part with either?
 
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Exactly, Ehlers is getting PP1 time. 80 pts is not an outlier for Ehlers. It is a result of better usage that he should have been getting for years.

True, Pionk gets little PP time. I still think of defencemen as primarily defenders though. Not that I don't like their scoring, but I want to see defence first. I guess I'm a little old-fashioned that way. :laugh:
But you need offensive defensemen to allow your forwards to score. Remember when we had the exodus of defensemen? We struggled to score because our D couldn't help them generate offense.
 
everyone on the PP is benefitting from it's improved scoring this year.
Pionk has 11 PP points (so far), he had 11 last 2 seasons combined (PP2)
Ehlers has 21 PP points (so far), he had 19 the last 2 seasons combined (PP2->PP1)

not sure if this rate is replicable year-in year-out or on a different team, however it came at the right time for new contracts.
 
The 2C is the friends we made along the way.

Kinda still upset we didn't get Cozens, dude has looked great so far for the Sens, I know we didn't have the assets to make the trade but I still wanted him on the Jets.
I think that’s the disappointment with chevy. It’s easy to say Winnipeg is on every no trade list and free agents don’t want to come here. It’s not always true. But there have been players available and chevy needs to target them aggressively.

Dylan Strome comes to mind.

As difficult as it can be, if the current window closes with minimal playoff success it will be on chevy because it’s his job.
 
Ok, well, in technical terms 80 points is indeed an outlier for Ehlers. You have to consider why usage is an outlier for Nik this year, and also games played. If Nikita Chibrikov played 82 games according to his career stats line he'd be a 49 goal scorer and that's with limited minutes. I know that's a pretty flimsy example given his game played but it's an exaggeration to make a point. You don't score 80 points in a season until you do, and even if Nik does, he's only done it once in his 10 seasons.

Going back to Pionk, if we're going to use the usage argument, he gets second pair minutes and very little pp time. If he was a 1D with 24 minutes a night and PP1 time he'd probably be a 50 point guy. As to that the fact that he's a true RD and that just adds value.

At the end of the day, you can't judge these guys on what they could be with ideal usage, you have to judge them on how they are used on the Jets, which is a more accurate value of them to the team.

Pionk plays RD on a team that is thin organizationally there (as are many NHL teams). He creates offense 5v5 and penalty kills.

Ehlers is a 60 point winger who doesn't penalty kill. He's defensively sounds which is a feather in his cap.

The point I'm trying to make is to disrupt the notion that is crazy to think the Jets are prioritizing Pionk re signing over Ehlers. Heck, it could be wrong, but there is a very logical argument to be made for it.

If you had to go to market to shop for a 40 point, pking 2RD, (really he's the Jets 1RD) over a 60 point, defensively sound winger, who would you rather have to shop for?

How many of each of those do you think exist in the market? How likely are other teams to part with either?

I think it's valid to suggest Ehlers' production has not changed, only his usage has. Calling 80 points an outlier for a winger having some kind of magical season with high shot% and everything going right for him would make sense but that's not the situation. It's pretty reasonable IMO to think that with PP1 and higher TOI this is what Ehlers is, since it's the first time it's been tried, and his production has always been the same and predictive of it.
 
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I think it's valid to suggest Ehlers' production has not changed, only his usage has. Calling 80 points an outlier for a winger having some kind of magical season with high shot% and everything going right for him would make sense but that's not the situation. It's pretty reasonable IMO to think that with PP1 and higher TOI this is what Ehlers is, since it's the first time it's been tried, and his production has always been the same and predictive of it.
Sure, I see that argument - but I still think my point stands. If you're going to measure Nik that was you have to measure Neal the same way, no?
 

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