Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Romang67]

Fleury is rocking a 43% xGF% and is 28 years old. Not sure why Heinola's having a higher potential than that would be unthinkable. We're not talking beating out Morrissey for the #1D spot here.

 

[gojetsgo]

I think it's very obvious the coaching staff doesn't trust either stanley/heinola so an upgrade over the 2 of them if very likely at the deadline

 

[KingBogo]

I'm not saying Fleury is bad. I'm saying he is better than Stan except for physical aggressiveness. He is not a top 4 Dman. That doesn't make him 'bad'. My impression of him on the 3rd pair was that he was good in that position. Maybe I should say that he is less bad than Stan.

Heinola is unknown. His potential is higher than either of the other 2. But the likelihood of him passing them is unknown.

Confidence is a large part of playing hockey at the highest levels. He needs to get comfortable and start playing with more confidence before we will know what he can do. He seems to be getting better each game. Lets stick with it.

Everyone talks about his offence, his first pass, his zone exits, etc. IIRC he was actually pretty good defensively in the AHL, using good skating and smarts to be effective against bigger men. I think he needs to be more than just an offensive Dman to succeed in the NHL. So far, I haven't seen enough of either offence or defence from him. But I have seen flashes. He hasn't failed yet. Give him a little rope.

Based on today’s line rushes in practice today it appears that Stan will be in for Heinola tomorrow.

 

[DRW204]

Fleury is rocking a 43% xGF% and is 28 years old. Not sure why Heinola's having a higher potential than that would be unthinkable. We're not talking beating out Morrissey for the #1D spot here.

more of forward problem id say.
the xGF side is suffering which for a dman like fleury is not the primary stat id be looking at for him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Based on today’s line rushes in practice today it appears that Stan will be in for Heinola tomorrow.

No surprise.

SMH

 

[Romang67]

more of forward problem id say.
the xGF side is suffering which for a dman like fleury is not the primary stat id be looking at for him.

Same as last season with Tampa Bay, and he's been over 2.11 xGF/60 once in the last 5 seasons. Bump him up to that, his second highest xGF/60 in his last five seasons, and he sits at 45% xGF%.

This is probably who he is at this point in his career.

 

[DRW204]

Same as last season with Tampa Bay, and he's been over 2.11 xGF/60 once in the last 5 seasons. Bump him up to that, his second highest xGF/60 in his last five seasons, and he sits at 45% xGF%.

This is probably who he is at this point in his career.

yes, he is not the offensive catalyst from the back-end. xGF for the average dman will be dependent on who the fwd mix is. per moneypuck morrissey is 2.6 xGF/60, is morrissey worth merely 0.5 xGF/60 more than fleury? idk strikes me as the Jets fwds aren't creating.

fleury plays well defensively, which is more than you can say about heinola. heinola also hasn't done anything of note offensively. so nothing defensively or offensively, i can see why they may not want him in the line-up.

also seems like fleury is hurt, and heinola is still not playing.

 

[voyageur]

Fleury is rocking a 43% xGF% and is 28 years old. Not sure why Heinola's having a higher potential than that would be unthinkable. We're not talking beating out Morrissey for the #1D spot here.

Better puck mover for sure. Fleury gives up goals against but prevents them on the PK pretty well. Heinola so far hasn't been bad at keeping the puck out of the net. I notice he gets some shifts with Lowry and that decreases his chances of being scored on. Also a way to have a PMD on every pairing. But he's not given the same Quality of Competition as Fleury so it's hard to distinguish their true impact.

 

[Romang67]

yes, he is not the offensive catalyst from the back-end. xGF for the average dman will be dependent on who the fwd mix is. per moneypuck morrissey is 2.6 xGF/60, is morrissey worth merely 0.5 xGF/60 more than fleury? idk strikes me as the Jets fwds aren't creating.

fleury plays well defensively, which is more than you can say about heinola. heinola also hasn't done anything of note offensively. so nothing defensively or offensively, i can see why they may not want him in the line-up.

also seems like fleury is hurt, and heinola is still not playing.

Fleury is who he is. If he gets his xGA/60 down to around 2, he's going to hover around 50% xGF%. He's not close to that, and he hasn't been in a few years.

I'd rather see if Heinola is closer to what he was against Minnesota and Toronto, and if not accept that they need a new D-man, than hope that Fleury is all of a sudden going to be someone he hasn't been in years.

Is it likely that Heinola is much better than he has shown? Not really. But I'd say it's more likely than that Fleury is. If he isn't, the loss is minimal.

 

[Romang67]

At the end of the day, I suspect that Heinola isn't going to be a mainstay. I had hopes for him, but I think injuries hurt him a lot.

I just don't have any real hopes for Fleury. Or Stanley.

Unfortunately, I'm also worried about DeMelo.

 

[DRW204]

Fleury is who he is. If he gets his xGA/60 down to around 2, he's going to hover around 50% xGF%. He's not close to that, and he hasn't been in a few years.

I'd rather see if Heinola is closer to what he was against Minnesota and Toronto, and if not accept that they need a new D-man, than hope that Fleury is all of a sudden going to be someone he hasn't been in years.

Is it likely that Heinola is much better than he has shown? Not really. But I'd say it's more likely than that Fleury is. If he isn't, the loss is minimal.

yes fleury is who he is, fine defensively but isn't going to do much to change things offensively. IMO xGF for most defenders is a fwd dependent stat.

actually, vaunted offensive dynamo ville heinola is slightly worse in xGF/60 than fleury, and on an island by himself of poor defensively.

i do think heinola should be in over stanley, but lets not act like heinola has been anything of note.

this is season-to date and can obvs change

 

[Romang67]

yes fleury is who he is, fine defensively but isn't going to do much to change things offensively. IMO xGF for most defenders is a fwd dependent stat.

actually, vaunted offensive dynamo ville heinola is slightly worse in xGF/60 than fleury, and on an island by himself of poor defensively.

i do think heinola should be in over stanley, but lets not act like heinola has been anything of note.

this is season-to date and can obvs change

View attachment 951916

Where are you getting those numbers? Because they seem to match what I'm seeing for every other D-man fairly well, except for Heinola who according to NaturalStatrick should be at roughly Stanley's level vertically, and slightly to the right of Pionk horizontally.

 

[DRW204]

Where are you getting those numbers? Because they seem to match what I'm seeing for every other D-man fairly well, except for Heinola who according to NaturalStatrick should be at roughly Stanley's level vertically, and slightly to the right of Pionk horizontally.

this is moneypucks tool you can make a custom plot easily

NHL Team Advanced Stats

Analyze all NHL teams with advanced stats & data visualization

www.moneypuck.com

they might have differing values for xGF

 

[Romang67]

this is moneypucks tool you can make a custom plot easily

NHL Team Advanced Stats

Analyze all NHL teams with advanced stats & data visualization

www.moneypuck.com

they might have differing values for xGF

They do. Heinola's are quite a bit worse, while Fleury's are quite a bit better (43->40 & 43->45).

 

[WolfHouse]

Fun fact
Stan has the least amount of hits of all of our regular D - but yes we need his 'toughness'

Most hits? DeMelo

yes fleury is who he is, fine defensively but isn't going to do much to change things offensively. IMO xGF for most defenders is a fwd dependent stat.

actually, vaunted offensive dynamo ville heinola is slightly worse in xGF/60 than fleury, and on an island by himself of poor defensively.

i do think heinola should be in over stanley, but lets not act like heinola has been anything of note.

this is season-to date and can obvs change

View attachment 951916

Thanks for pointing out thqt coghlan is our best D haha - or dont use stats without critical mass

 

[DRW204]

Fun fact
Stan has the least amount of hits of all of our regular D - but yes we need his 'toughness'

Most hits? DeMelo

Thanks for pointing out thqt coghlan is our best D haha - or dont use stats without critical mass

they don't have a filter function, otherwise would've removed his 1 gp. it's 1gp worth of stats where i actually thought he played well vs Vegas.

 

[voyageur]

Fun fact
Stan has the least amount of hits of all of our regular D - but yes we need his 'toughness'

Most hits? DeMelo

Thanks for pointing out thqt coghlan is our best D haha - or dont use stats without critical mass

I believe the guru of advanced stats claimed hitting was useless as a stat. As often hits were a sign of not having possession.

Interestingly those stats show that Stanley has a better impact in possession with the puck, generating offense than Heinola does.

Stanley's first passes are quite often good. Less so under duress I would say.

Toughness isn't just hits. Sometimes it's mitts. I don't expect Heinola to take any fighting majors in his career. For his own sake.

 

[MardyBum]

Lebrun in an article mentioned Ristolainen as a trade target for the Jets. Actually playing decent in Philly after being ass in Buffalo. And actually physical.

Also

 

[Jets 31]

Based on today’s line rushes in practice today it appears that Stan will be in for Heinola tomorrow.

Unreal, honestly the Jets management and coaching really love playing the square peg round hole game with Stanley. Unless someone is hurt that we don't know about why is Stanley playing? I may be completely wrong but Stanley doesn't help this team as far as I'm concerned. Some call it Stanley hate but i don't hate Stanley i just think he doesn't help the Jets win hockey games ,pure and simple.

 

[DRW204]

Lebrun in an article mentioned Ristolainen as a trade target for the Jets. Actually playing decent in Philly after being ass in Buffalo. And actually physical.

Also

got that new team bounce away from Buffalo
just like cozens maybe

 

[Buffdog]

Just wondering what people are expecting from Stanley

He's 2nd in Jets D in GF% and 4th in xGF% (behind Samberg, Jomo, Ville and Miller and ahead of Demelo, Pionk, and. Fleury)

What does this guy have to do to convince people he's not as terrible as Garret wants people to think he is?

He's shown himself well in his sheltered 3rd pairing minutes this season

Some narratives around here are impossible to change

 

[LowLefty]

Fun fact
Stan has the least amount of hits of all of our regular D - but yes we need his 'toughness'

Most hits? DeMelo

Thanks for pointing out thqt coghlan is our best D haha - or dont use stats without critical mass

Stan doesn't hit that often - he's more of a defender in how he pushes guys off the puck - he has the size to do that. He also moves guys out of the crease and middle ice. Is he a champ at this? No - but he's better at it than most of them (who spend more time getting tangled up net front and being even more of a screen).

As for Demelo, for the ice time he gets and the fact that he is the defensive guy on that pair, he should have the most hits - but I wouldn't call his hits all that impactful.

 

[LowLefty]

Unreal, honestly the Jets management and coaching really love playing the square peg round hole game with Stanley. Unless someone is hurt that we don't know about why is Stanley playing? I may be completely wrong but Stanley doesn't help this team as far as I'm concerned. Some call it Stanley hate but i don't hate Stanley i just think he doesn't help the Jets win hockey games ,pure and simple.

Shouldn't be that hard to grasp - they want his size in the line up and the team needs his size out there.
If you want to compare him to the other bubble guys, they are not that far apart - except on size, strength and a willingness to do some to the dirty work that needs to be done from time to time.
I wouldn't call it Stan hate - it's more about a fans player preference because there is no one in this group that stands out as the perfect solution to our D needs on the third pair - and it's obvious they are looking at the size / strength factor as being the most needed pce (all things considered).

 

[Gm0ney]

Stanley is 4th in Hits/60 after Miller, DeMelo and Fleury, respectively. Coughlin is just behind Stanley, but that's a one game sample. Then it's Pionk, Samberg, Heinola and Morrissey.

There's really only one spot in the Jets lineup for Heinola and that's 3rd pair offensive D...and that's not even a regular spot - the Jets would prefer two defensive defensemen on the 3rd pair most nights (with one of them being a penalty killer).

I don't think Heinola will ever get a run of games to grow into a regular NHLer (unless Pionk or Morrissey gets injured for 10+ games...and even then, are they going to throw Heinola into the lineup and hope for the best, or just double down on more stay-at-home defensemen).

They really might as well just waive him since any value he once had has evaporated and he's got no chance of getting a fair shake here.

 

[GaryinPrague]

Stanley is 4th in Hits/60 after Miller, DeMelo and Fleury, respectively. Coughlin is just behind Stanley, but that's a one game sample. Then it's Pionk, Samberg, Heinola and Morrissey.

There's really only one spot in the Jets lineup for Heinola and that's 3rd pair offensive D...and that's not even a regular spot - the Jets would prefer two defensive defensemen on the 3rd pair most nights (with one of them being a penalty killer).

I don't think Heinola will ever get a run of games to grow into a regular NHLer (unless Pionk or Morrissey gets injured for 10+ games...and even then, are they going to throw Heinola into the lineup and hope for the best, or just double down on more stay-at-home defensemen).

They really might as well just waive him since any value he once had has evaporated and he's got no chance of getting a fair shake here.

Heinola will be a regular, probably with another organization if this keeps up