Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Buffdog]

Yet they were willing to move Samberg to his off side - in the playoffs! - to accommodate the Stanley Project? Also sitting Schmidt in the pressbox for a stretch of games wouldn't have been any big loss during the time when Kovacevic was here.

This is all in hindsight. At the time Kova was waived, he had zero NHL experience and three veteran, established D men ahead of him

 

[WolfHouse]

So what you are saying is we should have put Kovacevic in the lineup over Demelo?

Instead of nate beaulieu

 

[surixon]

Forwards​

Offense Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Kyle Connor	+ 2.4
2		Nino Niederreiter	+ 2.2
3		Nikolaj Ehlers	+ 1.8
4		Mark Scheifele	+ 1.7
5		Mason Appleton	+ 1.1
6		Adam Lowry	+ 0.7
7		Cole Perfetti	+ 0.6
8		Gabriel Vilardi	+ 0.3
9		Vladislav Namestnikov	+ 0.1
10		Alex Iafallo	-1.6

Defense Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Mason Appleton	+ 1.2
2		Nino Niederreiter	+ 0.9
3		Adam Lowry	+ 0.9
4		Alex Iafallo	+ 0.8
5		Morgan Barron	+ 0.7
6		Rasmus Kupari	+ 0.5
7		Mark Scheifele	+ 0.2
8		Kyle Connor	-0.1
9		Gabriel Vilardi	-0.1
10		Cole Perfetti	-0.1

Net Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Nino Niederreiter	+ 3.1
2		Kyle Connor	+ 2.3
3		Mason Appleton	+ 2.3
4		Mark Scheifele	+ 1.8
5		Nikolaj Ehlers	+ 1.5
6		Adam Lowry	+ 1.5
7		Cole Perfetti	+ 0.5
8		Gabriel Vilardi	+ 0.2
9		Vladislav Namestnikov	-0.2
10		Alex Iafallo	-0.8

Defense​

Offense Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Neal Pionk	+ 2.7
2		Dylan Samberg	+ 0.7
3		Josh Morrissey	+ 0.5
4		Colin Miller	0.0
5		Logan Stanley	-0.7
6		Dylan DeMelo	-2.2

Defense Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Josh Morrissey	+ 2.1
2		Colin Miller	+ 1.4
3		Logan Stanley	+ 1.1
4		Dylan DeMelo	+ 0.9
5		Dylan Samberg	-1.0
6		Neal Pionk	-1.1

Net Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Josh Morrissey	+ 2.6
2		Neal Pionk	+ 1.6
3		Colin Miller	+ 1.3
4		Logan Stanley	+ 0.5
5		Dylan Samberg	-0.3
6		Dylan DeMelo	-1.3

Your numbers look off on a number of these. Not sure if something didn't translate properly on your table.

 

[Cypruss]

Your numbers look off on a number of these. Not sure if something didn't translate properly on your table.

That is exactly what I see in that site. Had never used it before today when I went to look up some numbers. No clue of their formula, but that is how it is posted. Here is a snippet version rather than a copy / paste version? I put no stock in any of those numbers, but what looked wrong?

 

[surixon]

That is exactly what I see in that site. Had never used it before today when I went to look up some numbers. No clue of their formula, but that is how it is posted. Here is a snippet version rather than a copy / paste version? I put no stock in any of those numbers, but what looked wrong?

View attachment 927425

I was just looking at the individual player cards and they didn't match for all. So I have really no idea why there is a discrepancy in their numbers.

For instance Scheifele's card shows a net 2.2 rating whereas your chart has him at 1.8. So I'm not really sure why there is a difference.

 

[Cypruss]

I was just looking at the individual player cards and they didn't match for all. So I have really no idea why there is a discrepancy in their numbers.

For instance Scheifele's card shows a net 2.2 rating whereas your chart has him at 1.8. So I'm not really sure why there is a difference.

No clue. this is where I looked for the others in the top ten that Kova was in, based on the site that the poster said they were using. GameScore Leaderboards | HockeyStatCards.com then on the left side changed the model from gamescore to rankings.

 

[DRW204]

Instead of nate beaulieu

Yeah during the Beaulieu, sbisa era I think there was opportunity to get youth involved. But once Dillon and Schmidt were acquired, that ship was sailed.

 

[WolfHouse]

Yeah during the Beaulieu, sbisa era I think there was opportunity to get youth involved. But once Dillon and Schmidt were acquired, that ship was sailed.

The schmidt trade will remain a mystery until chevy auto biography

 

[voyageur]

Instead of nate beaulieu

Wrong side. Stanley took his spot in 2021. For the playoffs too, where he was a plus player. 2021-2022 Samberg took Stanley's spot. Kovacevic was waived in 2022-23

 

[WolfHouse]

Wrong side. Stanley took his spot in 2021. For the playoffs too, where he was a plus player. 2021-2022 Samberg took Stanley's spot. Kovacevic was waived in 2022-23

Nate played both sides - schmidt played on his offhand side, etc... stop making excuses like it was somehow impossible to give our own prospects 10 games at least

Forbort, benn, sbisa etc - all scraps brought in as opposed to just believing in our prospects

 

[voyageur]

Nate played both sides - schmidt played on his offhand side, etc... stop making excuses like it was somehow impossible to give our own prospects 10 games at least

Forbort, benn, sbisa etc - all scraps brought in as opposed to just believing in our prospects

Well those guys were Maurice's guys. I guess we can question why Maurice didn't give Kovacevic a chance, but I'm sure deep down he had an affinity for that group of Sbisa, Beaulieu, Bittetto and Dahlstrom that had the Jets fighting for a playoff position, with Little out, Kulikov out for an extended period, Poolman out too. Before De Melo was acquired. There was no way Maurice was replacing Beaulieu with Kovacevic. Heck if he hadn't got injured he probably would have never replaced him with Stanley.

The Jets had a playoff mentality from 2018 on, and that came at the expense of some prospects, and only the best prospects rose to make the team. Hard to question Maurice now with a Stanley Cup ring, ultimately it was the Bowness/Arniel combination that cut Kovacevic, maybe Kovacevic makes the playoffs for the first time this year, a 27 year old veteran.

 

[DRW204]

The schmidt trade will remain a mystery until chevy auto biography

the years preceding the Jets D group was composed of the likes of beaulieu, poolman, sbisa, forbort, bitetto, among some others that chevy acquired or signed. they needed upgrades.

 

[Weezeric]

That is exactly what I see in that site. Had never used it before today when I went to look up some numbers. No clue of their formula, but that is how it is posted. Here is a snippet version rather than a copy / paste version? I put no stock in any of those numbers, but what looked wrong?

View attachment 927425

I will accept the arguments that Kovacevic was a big loss based on this model, if you also argue that Appleton is better than Ehlers.

 

[Buffdog]

Instead of nate beaulieu

Beaulieu's last year with the Jets was 2021-22. They had Demelo, Pionk and Schmidt ahead of Kovacevic that whole season. Prior to that season, he wouldn't have had the pro experience to be considered a legit option as a full time NHLer - which is why they went out and got Schmidt

I'll also point out that Beaulieu is a lefty and Kovacevic is a righty. Not sure how much left side he played on the Moose

 

[Cypruss]

I will accept the arguments that Kovacevic was a big loss based on this model, if you also argue that Appleton is better than Ehlers.

I don’t know anything about this model or agree with it at all. I just shared the info to answer questions to where someone’s claim Kovasevic was the fifth best defenseman came from, and show the top ten on that “experts” model.

I will not argue Appleton vs Ehlers as that is not anywhere near the same tier of player.

 

[Flair Hay]

Well those guys were Maurice's guys. I guess we can question why Maurice didn't give Kovacevic a chance, but I'm sure deep down he had an affinity for that group of Sbisa, Beaulieu, Bittetto and Dahlstrom that had the Jets fighting for a playoff position, with Little out, Kulikov out for an extended period, Poolman out too. Before De Melo was acquired. There was no way Maurice was replacing Beaulieu with Kovacevic. Heck if he hadn't got injured he probably would have never replaced him with Stanley.

The Jets had a playoff mentality from 2018 on, and that came at the expense of some prospects, and only the best prospects rose to make the team. Hard to question Maurice now with a Stanley Cup ring, ultimately it was the Bowness/Arniel combination that cut Kovacevic, maybe Kovacevic makes the playoffs for the first time this year, a 27 year old veteran.

Yeah this is more factually accurate. Chevy went out and got Nate.

It sucks but in the end Nate turned out worse than we thought, but still solid as a 3rd pair guy... while Kovacevic turned out as or better than expected - solid as a 3rd pair guy

It was Bones who chose Capo over Kovacevic after Chevy signed Kovacevic to a 3 year, league min. deal... to me it was a Bones mistake not a Chevy mistake.

The big contrast in salaries makes it stick out worse in hindsight.

 

[voyageur]

Yeah this is more factually accurate. Chevy went out and got Nate.

It sucks but in the end Nate turned out worse than we thought, but still solid as a 3rd pair guy... while Kovacevic turned out as or better than expected - solid as a 3rd pair guy

It was Bones who chose Capo over Kovacevic after Chevy signed Kovacevic to a 3 year, league min. deal... to me it was a Bones mistake not a Chevy mistake.

The big contrast in salaries makes it stick out worse in hindsight.

Arniel was the d-coach when hired. So ultimately I think he had input over whether to keep Kovacevic or Capobianco that year, and he chose to keep Stanley, which was unpopular. That's why lamenting Kovacevic for me is a lost cause, because it would expecting the same coach who didn't see him at a top 8 defenseman, suddenly pivoting to see him as such. I'm not sure what went right for Kovacevic, I think the trial by fire in Montreal helped him grow as a player. This is the only year of his contract that was a guaranteed one way. Really happy for the guy to be making an impact, Johnny K. always seemed like a genuinely good guy, team player. If anything the fact that he and Chisholm became NHL defensemen is a testament to a good develoment path the Jets are taking with their defensemen. I wonder how much credit Eric Dubois deserves in that.

 

[Wpgpage]

Gustav Frosling was traded for peanuts twice and then claimed of waivers from the Carolina Hurricanes (a model analytics team). He goes on to be the top pairing D on a cup final and then cup winning team.

This kind of thing happens all the time some guys develop late and if you come into your own as a hockey player at 25-26-27 you're probably not doing it with your original team. It's not like he went into Montreal and immediately became a top player either it took 2 more years of him playing 3rd pairing minutes with Montreal.

All this to say I don't think this is anyone's fault the Jets made the decision with the information they had at the time. If Kovacevic turns out to be a legit top 4 D it's because he put the work in to get better over the last 3 years he was not some amazing under used player here.

 

[Flair Hay]

Arniel was the d-coach when hired. So ultimately I think he had input over whether to keep Kovacevic or Capobianco that year, and he chose to keep Stanley, which was unpopular. That's why lamenting Kovacevic for me is a lost cause, because it would expecting the same coach who didn't see him at a top 8 defenseman, suddenly pivoting to see him as such. I'm not sure what went right for Kovacevic, I think the trial by fire in Montreal helped him grow as a player. This is the only year of his contract that was a guaranteed one way. Really happy for the guy to be making an impact, Johnny K. always seemed like a genuinely good guy, team player. If anything the fact that he and Chisholm became NHL defensemen is a testament to a good develoment path the Jets are taking with their defensemen. I wonder how much credit Eric Dubois deserves in that.

All very good points!

 

[Moloch]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1854994817186418974

 

[KingBogo]

Gustav Frosling was traded for peanuts twice and then claimed of waivers from the Carolina Hurricanes (a model analytics team). He goes on to be the top pairing D on a cup final and then cup winning team.

This kind of thing happens all the time some guys develop late and if you come into your own as a hockey player at 25-26-27 you're probably not doing it with your original team. It's not like he went into Montreal and immediately became a top player either it took 2 more years of him playing 3rd pairing minutes with Montreal.

All this to say I don't think this is anyone's fault the Jets made the decision with the information they had at the time. If Kovacevic turns out to be a legit top 4 D it's because he put the work in to get better over the last 3 years he was not some amazing under used player here.

This is a great post. Spending your time complaining about losing a player on waivers a couple years in the past is just silly and a waste of time. All teams get their hands forced from time to time by the 23 man roster limit and have no choice but put a player on waivers to be roster compliant. The choice of players is based on a range of criteria including team depth at a position and sometimes that player put on waivers develops after the fact into a better player. And as you point out it happens to every team. Overall waiver rules are very player friendly as they give a player a chance to develop and prove themselves elsewhere instead of being berried in an organization and never getting that chance to become the player they are. So be happy for the player, who otherwise may never had the chance to become the player they are now, if it weren't for waiver rules.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well those guys were Maurice's guys. I guess we can question why Maurice didn't give Kovacevic a chance, but I'm sure deep down he had an affinity for that group of Sbisa, Beaulieu, Bittetto and Dahlstrom that had the Jets fighting for a playoff position, with Little out, Kulikov out for an extended period, Poolman out too. Before De Melo was acquired. There was no way Maurice was replacing Beaulieu with Kovacevic. Heck if he hadn't got injured he probably would have never replaced him with Stanley.

The Jets had a playoff mentality from 2018 on, and that came at the expense of some prospects, and only the best prospects rose to make the team. Hard to question Maurice now with a Stanley Cup ring, ultimately it was the Bowness/Arniel combination that cut Kovacevic, maybe Kovacevic makes the playoffs for the first time this year, a 27 year old veteran.

It was in the '21 season that Kovacevic added some decent scoring to his game in the AHL. That suggested he was ready for promotion. It was in July 21 that Schmidt was acquired. He scored fairly well for Jets that 1st season, but his D play left a lot to be desired. Kovacevic should have been promoted instead. He would have scored less but probably have been better defensively.

As it was, we missed the PO that year anyway.

We would have had another 5 mil in cap space and a 3rd rd pick. IDK whether it would have been spent productively or not. It might have been. At worst it would have been in Chipman's pocket. Profitability is a good thing.

 

[surixon]

Arniel was the d-coach when hired. So ultimately I think he had input over whether to keep Kovacevic or Capobianco that year, and he chose to keep Stanley, which was unpopular. That's why lamenting Kovacevic for me is a lost cause, because it would expecting the same coach who didn't see him at a top 8 defenseman, suddenly pivoting to see him as such. I'm not sure what went right for Kovacevic, I think the trial by fire in Montreal helped him grow as a player. This is the only year of his contract that was a guaranteed one way. Really happy for the guy to be making an impact, Johnny K. always seemed like a genuinely good guy, team player. If anything the fact that he and Chisholm became NHL defensemen is a testament to a good develoment path the Jets are taking with their defensemen. I wonder how much credit Eric Dubois deserves in that.

Arniel was also a first year coach here at the time and wouldn't have been super familiar with our system. He would have been relying heavily on info from our development and AHL coaching staffs to make such a decision. They org got it wrong with him, it happens to all orgs.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is a great post. Spending your time complaining about losing a player on waivers a couple years in the past is just silly and a waste of time. All teams get their hands forced from time to time by the 23 man roster limit and have no choice but put a player on waivers to be roster compliant. The choice of players is based on a range of criteria including team depth at a position and sometimes that player put on waivers develops after the fact into a better player. And as you point out it happens to every team. Overall waiver rules are very player friendly as they give a player a chance to develop and prove themselves elsewhere instead of being berried in an organization and never getting that chance to become the player they are. So be happy for the player, who otherwise may never had the chance to become the player they are now, if it weren't for waiver rules.

JMO, but I think a couple of mistakes were made with Kova. Possibly another with Chisholm. Those mistakes may have been connected to the seemingly endless commitment to Stanley. If so they are still relevant. If not connected to Stanley, they raise questions about the process and the evaluation of players. So, again, still relevant.

But it is water under the bridge. The waiver process is there to give players a chance to move on if an org doesn't provide them with a chance move forward with their careers. And every team will have the odd one that got away. Even the commitment to Stanley is looking better recently.