Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[KingBogo]

Do you want to guess how Scheifele+Connor compared in actual pucks in the net minus pucks in their own net compared to Scheifele without Connor in recent years? Since those stats aren't fancy?

I actual just ran those numbers. Over the last 7 seasons Schiefele and Connor (isolated together) have been out scored 5 on 5 by a grand total of 7 goals. So on average they get out scored 5 on 5 by 1 goal per season, by some of the other teams best players. Not the greatest but pretty close to even. You then add in all the other game situations where a coach would want his 2 best offensive players together and it makes sense why all Jets coaches have defaulted to them as a pair.

 

[DRW204]

Brock Nelson

He'd help our Minnesota quota.

 

[Buffdog]

I actual just ran those numbers. Over the last 7 seasons Schiefele and Connor (isolated together) have been out scored 5 on 5 by a grand total of 7 goals. So on average they get out scored 5 on 5 by 1 goal per season, by some of the other teams best players. Not the greatest but pretty close to even. You then add in all the other game situations where a coach would want his 2 best offensive players together and it makes sense why all Jets coaches have defaulted to them as a pair.

I think the argument is that "pretty close to even" isn't good enough for your top line

I sure would like to know what would be good enough in terms of goal differential and xGF% though. I have a feeling there might be goalpost creepage on that

 

[Romang67]

I actual just ran those numbers. Over the last 7 seasons Schiefele and Connor have been out scored 5 on 5 by a grand total of 7 goals. So on average they get out scored 5 on 5 by 1 goal per season, by some of the other teams best players. Not the greatest but pretty close to even. You then add in all the other game situations where a coach would want his 2 best offensive players together and it makes sense why all Jets coaches have defaulted to them as a pair.

Unfortunately, that has dropped to -10 over the past 3 seasons, compared to +20 for Scheifele with Ehlers, and -2 with Scheifele without either.

 

[KingBogo]

Unfortunately, that has dropped to -10 over the past 3 seasons, compared to +20 for Scheifele with Ehlers, and -2 with Scheifele without either.

The part I don't get in this debate is why don't so many people want Ehlers to drive a 2nd line? Many if not most top teams try to separate their top line drivers to make 2 good top 6 lines. Ehlers should be able to carry his own line.

 

[DRW204]

I actual just ran those numbers. Over the last 7 seasons Schiefele and Connor (isolated together) have been out scored 5 on 5 by a grand total of 7 goals. So on average they get out scored 5 on 5 by 1 goal per season, by some of the other teams best players. Not the greatest but pretty close to even. You then add in all the other game situations where a coach would want his 2 best offensive players together and it makes sense why all Jets coaches have defaulted to them as a pair.

What do you use as a source. If it's naturalstattricks line tool you have to exclude Ehlers from the equation otherwise it picks up with Ehlers as the X Fwd which is the opposite of the argument on here.

The part I don't get in this debate is why don't so many people want Ehlers to drive a 2nd line? Many if not most top teams try to separate their top line drivers to make 2 good top 6 lines. Ehlers should be able to carry his own line.

The other top teams like Chicago a decade ago with Toews and Kane. Or McDavid and Draisaitl have a top line that can generate positively in net goals.

How many cup teams can you cite that have a marginal or below average top line?

 

[Skidooboy]

Do you want to guess how Scheifele+Connor compared in actual pucks in the net minus pucks in their own net compared to Scheifele without Connor in recent years? Since those stats aren't fancy?

point per game top line centre for the last 9 out of 10 years..... 723 points in 800 games.....
and a perennial 30+goal scorer.... who is also PPG over the last few years.....

on a Team with a winning record over the last 10 years, whith a very obvious depth scoring problem......

vs a guy who has pretty much underperformed for his entire ccareer with a multitude of talented linemates?

you sure you want to go there?

 

[DRW204]

It saddens me to compile this list, and some of these players may not return a 1st at the deadline (or even be available), but here are some expiring contracts for centers:

Gustav Nyquist (if the Preds are out of the playoff picture early enough that they sell)
Claude Giroux
Frank Vatrano
Mikael Granlund
Nick Bjugstad
Alex Kerfoot
Andrew Mangiapane
Robby Fabbri
JACK ROSLOVIC
Ryan Donato

Lot of meh. I don't think alot of those guys play C too. Like Roslovic or Mangiapane or Vatrano.

Id be interested in Giroux but evidently long way to go and want to see how the old man is fairing in Feb.

 

[Gm0ney]

You don't think that if a coach was playing an average goalie ahead of helle that he'd have a valid reason for doing so, regardless if you're privy to what that reason is?

This type of arrogance is mind blowing. "I can't conceive of a reason for a coach to do something, so there isn't any possibility that such a reason could conceivably exist"

Showing deference to a coach's judgement in situations where there's ample evidence that things are not going so well is a bit mind blowing to me. Like, why wouldn't we question what these coaches are doing when they're doing things that don't make sense.

Were people wrong to criticize Brad Lauer for the "stand around and hope for the best" powerplay scheme? Should we not have been scrabbling to conceive of possible reasons for that plan? Maybe the Jets had some black box fancy stats that said the path to greatness was to rest up the powerplay unit so they'd have more energy in OT?

 

[Romang67]

The part I don't get in this debate is why don't so many people want Ehlers to drive a 2nd line? Many if not most top teams try to separate their top line drivers to make 2 good top 6 lines. Ehlers should be able to carry his own line.

Me, personally? I don't really care about the ego boost of Ehlers' carrying his own line. We don't have a dominant first line that is supplemented by a dominant second line, like Crosby and Malkin. Lacking that, I'd like to maximize the rate of scoring minus the rate of allowing goals against.

I really don't give a lick about which line combinations accomplish that, and I can't for the life of me understand why anyone would. If the first line that maximizes our goal differential in the long run is Chibrikov, Scheifele, and Comrie wearing a tutu, neat.

 

[Romang67]

point per game top line centre for the last 9 out of 10 years..... 723 points in 800 games.....
and a perennial 30+goal scorer.... who is also PPG over the last few years.....

on a Team with a winning record over the last 10 years, whith a very obvious depth scoring problem......

vs a guy who has pretty much underperformed for his entire ccareer with a multitude of talented linemates?

you sure you want to go there?

Sure. Let's go there. How do the goal differential numbers 5v5 look?

 

[KingBogo]

Me, personally? I don't really care about the ego boost of Ehlers' carrying his own line. We don't have a dominant first line that is supplemented by a dominant second line, like Crosby and Malkin. Lacking that, I'd like to maximize the rate of scoring minus the rate of allowing goals against.

I really don't give a lick about which line combinations accomplish that, and I can't for the life of me understand why anyone would. If the first line that maximizes our goal differential in the long run is Chibrikov, Scheifele, and Comrie wearing a tutu, neat.

But last season we had the 4th best goal differential rate in the league, and we are right there again early in this season. Do you think this team is better than that? We don't currently have a real #2 center so weakening the 2nd line further might very well start costing us in terms of goal differential.

 

[Buffdog]

Showing deference to a coach's judgement in situations where there's ample evidence that things are not going so well is a bit mind blowing to me. Like, why wouldn't we question what these coaches are doing when they're doing things that don't make sense.

Were people wrong to criticize Brad Lauer for the "stand around and hope for the best" powerplay scheme? Should we not have been scrabbling to conceive of possible reasons for that plan? Maybe the Jets had some black box fancy stats that said the path to greatness was to rest up the powerplay unit so they'd have more energy in OT?

I just don't like judging people's decisions without knowing all the factors that went into making them. You assuming that there isn't a good reason for him doing it is the same as me assuming that there must be. We're both making assumptions

That said, I think that's there's enough evidence of some underlying reasons that we aren't aware of. I'm not sure why you'd mock someone for hypothesizing what those reasons could be like I feel you did in the "average goalie instead of helle" post

 

[DRW204]

But last season we had the 4th best goal differential rate in the league, and we are right there again early in this season. Do you think this team is better than that? We don't currently have a real #2 center so weakening the 2nd line further might very well start costing us in terms of goal differential.

You may want to check the lineup configs that contributed mostly to that. And currently what is the worst line in 5v5 goal differential?

For reference we were +57 last year at 5v5 which contributed to the +61 at all strengths.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mort a few times you made the argument that KC and Scheifele produce more apart but other than a period where PLD actually seemed to give a shit what center are you talking about and are they an actual option for KC to play with?

No, that was with PLD. I don't know of any other time he played with a different C. I'm sure there must have been some very short periods when Scheif was injured, or suspended , but I don't recall any detail. I'm sure it would have been pretty short term though.

Right now, we are short a 2C. I'm still hoping Names recaptures whatever it was that worked last year. KC couldn't make that line any worse right now though, could he?

 

[Romang67]

But last season we had the 4th best goal differential rate in the league, and we are right there again early in this season. Do you think this team is better than that? We don't currently have a real #2 center so weakening the 2nd line further might very well start costing us in terms of goal differential.

With far and away the best goaltending in the league? Sure, I think a better optimized forward group could have done better.

Then we could shelter the 2nd line and lean more on our much improved first line.

 

[DRW204]

Me, personally? I don't really care about the ego boost of Ehlers' carrying his own line. We don't have a dominant first line that is supplemented by a dominant second line, like Crosby and Malkin. Lacking that, I'd like to maximize the rate of scoring minus the rate of allowing goals against.

I really don't give a lick about which line combinations accomplish that, and I can't for the life of me understand why anyone would. If the first line that maximizes our goal differential in the long run is Chibrikov, Scheifele, and Comrie wearing a tutu, neat.

Seriously why can't KC carry the line? Ppl want to classify him as a top 10 winger, isn't that closer to the "Patrick Kane" class in the Kane/Toews Chicago split comparison rather than Ehlers? Don't think any one or publication has Ehlers ever as a top 10 nhl winger.

Actually Patrick Kane has several years of heavy positives. For KC, a year above a +1 would be his best in 8 YEARS (How is this continuously glossed over??)

 

[Romang67]

Seriously why can't KC carry the line? Ppl want to classify him as a top 10 winger, isn't that closer to the "Patrick Kane" class in the Kane/Toews Chicago split comparison rather than Ehlers? Don't think any one or publication has Ehlers ever as a top 10 nhl winger.

Actually Patrick Kane has several years of heavy positives. For KC, a year above a +1 would be his best in 8 YEARS (How is this continuously glossed over??)

My very fallible eye test has always told me that KC looks better on a different line from Scheifele, but I wouldn't use that as evidence.

Sure would be nice to try something else instead of throwing our hands in the air proclaiming that we've tried nothing and are all out of ideas though.

 

[LowLefty]

But last season we had the 4th best goal differential rate in the league, and we are right there again early in this season. Do you think this team is better than that? We don't currently have a real #2 center so weakening the 2nd line further might very well start costing us in terms of goal differential.

We've also worked hard at putting together a more balanced lineup - one where our top line is not relied upon to generate all our offense - which usually leads to too many minutes ice time (which used to be another major topic to argue around here).
I'm holding out for better production from the Ehlers line (it's early after all) - and I'm looking forward to seeing us roll 4 lines which IMO, makes us a much better "team".

 

[Bob E]

He'd help our Minnesota quota.

He would.

And would add size an a nice scoring touch on a 2nd scoring line. Ideally for me, you grab Nelson with a pick/prospect for 2C with Perfetti, move Nino to top line for some size/physicality, move Vilardi to add some skill with Nelson and Perfetti, move Ehlers in a trade for a dman to play in the top 4 or a replacement draft pick/prospect, and let Names center the 4th line.

Connor-Scheif-Nino
Perfetti-Nelson-Vilardi
Iafallo-Lowry-Appleton
Barron-Names-Kupari/Gus

 

[KingBogo]

With far and away the best goaltending in the league? Sure, I think a better optimized forward group could have done better.

Then we could shelter the 2nd line and lean more on our much improved first line.

I agree Helly is right there among the top elite goalies in the league, but we compare favorably (at least in the regular season) with teams with other elite goalies with probably stronger overall rosters. And really how much can you shelter a 2nd line? On the road we would be very vulnerable to hard matchups. Sorry but to me this seems like an argument to maximize Ehlers counting numbers over overall team success. If anything we should probably look at ways at balancing out the 4 lines as a strategy for success rather than try and maximize the 1st line.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Brock Nelson

Brock Nelson ............................................. ???

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The part I don't get in this debate is why don't so many people want Ehlers to drive a 2nd line? Many if not most top teams try to separate their top line drivers to make 2 good top 6 lines. Ehlers should be able to carry his own line.

You keep saying that. What makes you think that the sum of the 2 lines is better that way than with Ehlers and Connor switched?

 

[DRW204]

My very fallible eye test has always told me that KC looks better on a different line from Scheifele, but I wouldn't use that as evidence.

Sure would be nice to try something else instead of throwing our hands in the air proclaiming that we've tried nothing and are all out of ideas though.

My post was partially tongue in cheek tbh. But how many duos stay together for 8 years that have marginal line results?

Like if they're producing at some of the higher rates in the league, ok sure. You can see the outcomes match.

But we're talking 8 years that CS-(not ehlers) line has been a marginal line.

 

[Romang67]

I agree Helly is right there among the top elite goalies in the league, but we compare favorably (at least in the regular season) with teams with other elite goalies with probably stronger overall rosters. And really how much can you shelter a 2nd line? On the road we would be very vulnerable to hard matchups. Sorry but to me this seems like an argument to maximize Ehlers counting numbers over overall team success. If anything we should probably look at ways at balancing out the 4 lines as a strategy for success rather than try and maximize the 1st line.

Why would Connor+Scheifele maximize team success? Last year, Connor away from Scheifele was a small negative in goal differential. Connor+Scheifele was also a small negative. But Scheifele+Ehlers was a much greater positive than Ehlers without Scheifele.

So removing Connor from Scheifele didn't hurt Connor, and helped Scheifele. Who cares about Ehlers if it results in a better goal differential?