Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[voyageur]

They're used often as a 2nd line. How many second lines you know from great teams are composed of 3 30pt players.

You are strictly talking ice time. What's the ratio of defensive zone draws for that line? If that is your go to, their primary job is to put the puck in the other end of the rink possession wise chip in, but if you measure shift lengths vs rink travelled the opportunities to score should have a lower threshold is some measurable variable form. If you have a successful checking line like the Jets do, that's part of the team success. Generating an offensive zone faceoff increases the chances to score. Lowry in the past has hit some top notch numbers for GA/60 but that's not the focal point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

More like he will do until the trade deadline

I hope not. We were no better after getting Monahan last year. He improved the PP but he could have done that lining up at 4LW at evens. IIRC our winning % actually went down slightly after getting him.

Maybe by that time one of our internal upgrades will be ready to take over for him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I like Namestnikov but his production was spread around different lines. He was good on the 4th line, as a winger. Became 2c from the moment Perfetti was moved to the wing...his defensive game is good, so he's essentially the Copp replacement without the faceoffs. The Jets brought Monahan in specifically for faceoffs, both zones, and to be a bumper guy on the PP. So both those roles are going to have to be solved internally going into the season. I realize that most faceoffs have no significance but want to see a coach with an angry look watch a lost draw end up in the back of the net. On the PK especially winning a clean draw is 20 seconds off the clock, if played right. For a coach drawing up offensive zone plays is usually based on won or scrambled draws. Namestnikov doesn't take many d-zone faceoffs, and he is a good enough skater to play at Ehlers pace, so it could be a non factor...but if Chevy was fishing for a C in the offseason good chance he might not be satisfied with the roster as it stands. Since it's hard to get quality players here might have to be patient with Lambert, Lucius and Yager and see where it goes.

I suppose the sample size last year was large enough for him to pass grade, but Pionk's success with Samberg is generally written off.

I agree Chevy isn't likely satisfied with Names at 2C. But as a placeholder until we can get one significantly better, I think he is actually pretty good.

I also agree about a clean win on the PK - but CLEAN is key. Who will be our C on the PK? Probably not our 2C, unless you are counting Lowry as 2C. The C on the PK is likely going against the opposition's best FO man so you can only expect so much.

 

[DRW204]

You are strictly talking ice time. What's the ratio of defensive zone draws for that line? If that is your go to, their primary job is to put the puck in the other end of the rink possession wise chip in, but if you measure shift lengths vs rink travelled the opportunities to score should have a lower threshold is some measurable variable form. If you have a successful checking line like the Jets do, that's part of the team success. Generating an offensive zone faceoff increases the chances to score. Lowry in the past has hit some top notch numbers for GA/60 but that's not the focal point.

if they are getting 2nd line worthy TOI they need to be better offensively in total goals, or rates, rather than near the bottom of the league.

the Jets will generally be respectable in GA b/c they have Helle in net. so although the third line is v good on the GA side they are pretty uni-dimensional in that way given their scoring is near the bottom of the league compared to similarly used fwds (using lowry as a reference point for 3rd line).

yes they are used in the dzone 6x/10 rather than 4x or 5x/10. it hasn't been a hinderance in generating offense given solid CF and xGF numbers. but they are some of the worst of similarly TOI fwds in the NHL at capitalizing (as mentioned their league-wide rank in GF in the previous post).

 

[voyageur]

if they are getting 2nd line worthy TOI they need to be better offensively in total goals, or rates, rather than near the bottom of the league.

the Jets will generally be respectable in GA b/c they have Helle in net. so although the third line is v good on the GA side they are pretty uni-dimensional in that way given their scoring is near the bottom of the league compared to similarly used fwds (using lowry as a reference point for 3rd line).

yes they are used in the dzone 6x/10 rather than 4x or 5x/10. it hasn't been a hinderance in generating offense given solid CF and xGF numbers. but they are one of the worst of similarly TOI fwds in the NHL at capitalizing.

Do you have comparable GF/GA ratios for comparison. For similar usage players not just TOI but defensive zone TOI? I think a lot of teams have more than one go to defensive zone line on their teams. Or don't even hard match. So Lowry has to be one of the most used players in the DZ in the NHL. Maybe I'm wrong.

 

[DRW204]

Do you have comparable GF/GA ratios for comparison. For similar usage players not just TOI but defensive zone TOI? I think a lot of teams have more than one go to defensive zone line on their teams. Or don't even hard match. So Lowry has to be one of the most used players in the DZ in the NHL. Maybe I'm wrong.

Natural stat trick doesn't segment TOI in zones. But they do have zone faceoff starts. Lowry (and his line) have a good Corsi-for and xGF with high dzone starts. Which means although they're often starting in the dzone, they still get offensive shot or opportunities.
Just average finishing for Lowry's line would be 13 more goals (meeting xGF)

 

[voyageur]

Natural stat trick doesn't segment TOI in zones. But they do have zone faceoff starts. Lowry (and his line) have a good Corsi-for and xGF with high dzone starts. Which means although they're often starting in the dzone, they still get offensive shot or opportunities.
Just average finishing for Lowry's line would be 13 more goals (meeting xGF)

All g, I am just trying to prop up our captain for a Selke nomination.

 

[DRW204]

All g, I am just trying to prop up our captain for a Selke nomination.

He won't win a selke scoring 30 pts

 

[TS Quint]

Just a reminder that a 2/3 line featuring Perfetti-Namestnikov (with either Ehlers or Iafallo on RW) scored goals at a rate equivalent to Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi, while allowing fewer goals against.

Table below is 5v5 rates per 60, adjusted for score and venue.

View attachment 905622

And people say quality of competition doesn't matter....

 

[TS Quint]

the Lowry line needs to be way better & consistent offensively to be a top-6 line. Appreciate the defensive efforts & whatnot, however, this team as a whole generally rates well on the GA side given Helle is in net. ie: the 2nd line w/ namestnikov or monahan, ESV had GA rates ~2 GA/60 or under (which is v good).

among fwds of similar mins in GF, using Lowry as a reference point for our 3rd line, ranked 160/188 in NHL Fwds & 166th in GF/60.

Weird. Where did the Jets finish in +/- as a team?

 

[Whileee]

And people say quality of competition doesn't matter....

It matters, but not as much as quality of teammates.

Good thing we can get some data on that, too.

Below are Namestnikov's shot and goal metrics adjusted for teammates and competition.

Below that is how Namestnikov's teammates and competition lined up. He played mainly with bottom 6 and mainly against top 6.

 

[Buffdog]

the Lowry line needs to be way better & consistent offensively to be a top-6 line. Appreciate the defensive efforts & whatnot, however, this team as a whole generally rates well on the GA side given Helle is in net. ie: the 2nd line w/ namestnikov or monahan, ESV had GA rates ~2 GA/60 or under (which is v good).

among fwds of similar mins in GF, using Lowry as a reference point for our 3rd line, ranked 160/188 in NHL Fwds & 166th in GF/60.

All that people give a shit about around here is goal differential

The nerdier types also care about xGF%

 

[Mathil8]

Looking at our roster and cap space, and in light of Heinola's injury, really wishing we would have moved out Iafallo and used his 4m and our cap space to go after a D. 6ish million just sitting there.

 

[Weezeric]

Looking at our roster and cap space, and in light of Heinola's injury, really wishing we would have moved out Iafallo and used his 4m and our cap space to go after a D. 6ish million just sitting there.

Ya, it’s always easier to judge how to use cap space after you know who’s going to get injured.

People have been complaining about blocking Heinola with veterans for 3 years now, so I don’t think doing that again would’ve been well received.

 

[Mathil8]

Ya, it’s always easier to judge how to use cap space after you know who’s going to get injured.

People have been complaining about blocking Heinola with veterans for 3 years now, so I don’t think doing that again would’ve been well received.

Agreed, but even with Heinola I feel we're a little thin on D, and we have excess cap space. Of course with Perfetti's caphit unknown until a few days ago, it would be hard to track how much space we had to use. That being said, by all reports it seems like bridge was always what Chevy was pushing.

On top of that I feel like our forward depth is pretty solid, to the point where although a useful player, Iafallo becomes redundant and his cap space could be better used on defence.

The real issue is that we need an improvement on Pionk on RD, but our organization seems blind to that.

Also just not that thrilled to have Stanley in our top 6 in general, let alone for an extended period which seems to be upcoming.

Edit: reading Stanley might be out for a while now. Our D is even thinner now!

 

[voyageur]

Agreed, but even with Heinola I feel we're a little thin on D, and we have excess cap space. Of course with Perfetti's caphit unknown until a few days ago, it would be hard to track how much space we had to use. That being said, by all reports it seems like bridge was always what Chevy was pushing.

On top of that I feel like our forward depth is pretty solid, to the point where although a useful player, Iafallo becomes redundant and his cap space could be better used on defence.

The real issue is that we need an improvement on Pionk on RD, but our organization seems blind to that.

Also just not that thrilled to have Stanley in our top 6 in general, let alone for an extended period which seems to be upcoming.

Edit: reading Stanley might be out for a while now. Our D is even thinner now!

This is a typical fan response to the team. Don't like Pionk. Not good enough. Replace him. Replace him with who? Who do you think is out there that is better, that doesn't have Winnipeg on their NTC? Lilljegren? Justin Barron? Drysdale?

You hear the coach talk about how Pionk wants to be a Jet, maybe we should pine for Trouba again, who kept trying to get out of being a Jet.

Iafallo was the Cap part of the Dubois trade, and the Jets probably knew he would fit into the dressing room/organization having played at UMD with Pionk, Toninato.

Hasn't been bad. Probably better than Matty Perreault as a 4th line player, if you are comparing salaries.

Who knows what the team looks like next season? Who knows where the injuries will come? Jets have good depth up front, as long as Scheif stays healthy. Defense we are about to find out. Glad Lundmark is getting a chance. He's a player I was hoping would become an NHLer, a 2nd round pick without any fanfare.

 

[Buffdog]

This is a typical fan response to the team. Don't like Pionk. Not good enough. Replace him. Replace him with who? Who do you think is out there that is better, that doesn't have Winnipeg on their NTC? Lilljegren? Justin Barron? Drysdale?

You hear the coach talk about how Pionk wants to be a Jet, maybe we should pine for Trouba again, who kept trying to get out of being a Jet.

Iafallo was the Cap part of the Dubois trade, and the Jets probably knew he would fit into the dressing room/organization having played at UMD with Pionk, Toninato.

Hasn't been bad. Probably better than Matty Perreault as a 4th line player, if you are comparing salaries.

Who knows what the team looks like next season? Who knows where the injuries will come? Jets have good depth up front, as long as Scheif stays healthy. Defense we are about to find out. Glad Lundmark is getting a chance. He's a player I was hoping would become an NHLer, a 2nd round pick without any fanfare.

Good post

"We need to upgrade 2RHD"

Oh, OK... I'll just invite Chevy over to my house and he can pick one from the RHD tree I have growing in my yard lol

 

[voyageur]

Good post

"We need to upgrade 2RHD"

Oh, OK... I'll just invite Chevy over to my house and he can pick one from the RHD tree I have growing in my yard lol

We know the Jets tried to make a play on Manson...he flat out turned us down. Son of a former Jet, from Prince Albert. Jeez I remember when we first got Pionk and the analytics said he was terrible, and he turned out to be our best defenseman that year.

 

[Mathil8]

This is a typical fan response to the team. Don't like Pionk. Not good enough. Replace him. Replace him with who? Who do you think is out there that is better, that doesn't have Winnipeg on their NTC? Lilljegren? Justin Barron? Drysdale?

You hear the coach talk about how Pionk wants to be a Jet, maybe we should pine for Trouba again, who kept trying to get out of being a Jet.

Iafallo was the Cap part of the Dubois trade, and the Jets probably knew he would fit into the dressing room/organization having played at UMD with Pionk, Toninato.

Hasn't been bad. Probably better than Matty Perreault as a 4th line player, if you are comparing salaries.

Who knows what the team looks like next season? Who knows where the injuries will come? Jets have good depth up front, as long as Scheif stays healthy. Defense we are about to find out. Glad Lundmark is getting a chance. He's a player I was hoping would become an NHLer, a 2nd round pick without any fanfare.

Woah woah woah, hold on now. I think you're reading more into my post than I intended. I started out by saying that in hindsight I wish we moved Iafallo and used his capspace on D since we're deep on forward and thin on defense. Especially with Lambert and chib nearly ready to make the jump and in light of Heinola and Stanley's injuries.

As for my comments on Pionk; the guy has played well for us in the past, but has really struggled the last couple of years. My comments with the org being blind to that is more in regards to refusing to cut his ice time during his struggles. Not sure why he gets near 2nd/3rd most ice time of our D.

Like I said in my post, Iafallo is a useful player, but has become redundant with our new found depth. His 4m cap hit could be better used elsewhere.

I would take 4th line Matty P over Iafallo any day of the week personally.

I just dislike having 2.5m in cap space sitting there and Iafallo making 4m on the fourth line when we're as thin as we are on D and taking possibly the last kick of the can with the team as currently constructed.

On the flip side I understand that you can only make a trade if there's an option there with the right price, and if that player is willing to come to Winnipeg. I also get that we wanted to make room for Heinola to get his shot now that he's waiver eligible. I still feel like we took a hit on D from last year losing Dillon, and I'm not thrilled with our depth now that Heinola's out long term, possibly Stanley as well. We're banking on quality D from the likes of Fleury, Coghlan, and Lundmark which is quite a risk.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Good post

"We need to upgrade 2RHD"

Oh, OK... I'll just invite Chevy over to my house and he can pick one from the RHD tree I have growing in my yard lol

I think it is fair to identify a problem without having a solution. I swear to God, if it was pointed out that Germany needed a better chancellor than Adolf Hitler, there would be people here going, oh yeah, who would you have replaced him with? Chancellors don't grow on trees, you know.

 

[voyageur]

Woah woah woah, hold on now. I think you're reading more into my post than I intended. I started out by saying that in hindsight I wish we moved Iafallo and used his capspace on D since we're deep on forward and thin on defense. Especially with Lambert and chib nearly ready to make the jump and in light of Heinola and Stanley's injuries.

As for my comments on Pionk; the guy has played well for us in the past, but has really struggled the last couple of years. My comments with the org being blind to that is more in regards to refusing to cut his ice time during his struggles. Not sure why he gets near 2nd/3rd most ice time of our D.

Like I said in my post, Iafallo is a useful player, but has become redundant with our new found depth. His 4m cap hit could be better used elsewhere.

I would take 4th line Matty P over Iafallo any day of the week personally.

I just dislike having 2.5m in cap space sitting there and Iafallo making 4m on the fourth line when we're as thin as we are on D and taking possibly the last kick of the can with the team as currently constructed.

On the flip side I understand that you can only make a trade if there's an option there with the right price, and if that player is willing to come to Winnipeg. I also get that we wanted to make room for Heinola to get his shot now that he's waiver eligible. I still feel like we took a hit on D from last year losing Dillon, and I'm not thrilled with our depth now that Heinola's out long term, possibly Stanley as well. We're banking on quality D from the likes of Fleury, Coghlan, and Lundmark which is quite a risk.

It's a forum where everyone has an opinion, so I apologize if my response is over the top. I am generally more supportive of Pionk than most people here. And so I get into frequent disagreements.

Defensively I am still optimistic that the losses of Dillon and Schmidt will allow the Jets to have more quickness to their overall game. Miller getting into the lineup may help in different facets. I am still not sold on Ville, he has to prove himself. I think Stanley does too. Lundmark is at least getting a chance, and he probably deserves it.

Iafallo isn't the worst $4 million Cap hit in the league, I think if that was the price of getting Dubois out of town, the Jets still won that trade. Could be his last season here so I expect he plays well, for his next contract, which likely isn't from the Jets.

You should get used to having that Cap space as a Jets fan. Jets don't like to be up against the Cap, the year they did go to the Cap they missed the playoffs, and struggled to make roster changes. I think the extra Cap space allows the team to mitigate injuries and bring up different players, so it's a good strategy, in my opinion.

 

[Buffdog]

I think it is fair to identify a problem without having a solution. I swear to God, if it was pointed out that Germany needed a better chancellor than Adolf Hitler, there would be people here going, oh yeah, who would you have replaced him with? Chancellors don't grow on trees, you know.

That's one of the strangest comparisons I've ever seen lol

It's one thing to identify a problem, but it's another altogether to chastise Chevy for not doing something when we have no idea what his options were. Maybe there was no upgrade available, or maybe there was but the price was prohibitive or he didn't want to come here

 

[Mathil8]

It's a forum where everyone has an opinion, so I apologize if my response is over the top. I am generally more supportive of Pionk than most people here. And so I get into frequent disagreements.

Defensively I am still optimistic that the losses of Dillon and Schmidt will allow the Jets to have more quickness to their overall game. Miller getting into the lineup may help in different facets. I am still not sold on Ville, he has to prove himself. I think Stanley does too. Lundmark is at least getting a chance, and he probably deserves it.

Iafallo isn't the worst $4 million Cap hit in the league, I think if that was the price of getting Dubois out of town, the Jets still won that trade. Could be his last season here so I expect he plays well, for his next contract, which likely isn't from the Jets.

You should get used to having that Cap space as a Jets fan. Jets don't like to be up against the Cap, the year they did go to the Cap they missed the playoffs, and struggled to make roster changes. I think the extra Cap space allows the team to mitigate injuries and bring up different players, so it's a good strategy, in my opinion.

Thanks for the level headed response, and fair points.

I am excited to see Miller get regular minutes, I think people will be surprised by what he can offer.

Have they not spent up to the cap (including bonuses) pretty much every year since 2018?

 

[voyageur]

Thanks for the level headed response, and fair points.

I am excited to see Miller get regular minutes, I think people will be surprised by what he can offer.

Have they not spent up to the cap (including bonuses) pretty much every year since 2018?

No they have not. Last year was about $3 million to start the season, I believe it was the year before too, but there were a lot of injuries that filled up that Cap space. And the Jets have used that Cap space to acquire players at the deadline in both of the last two contention years.

I try to be level headed...I have to admit that I was a little irate in the prospect rankings when Salomonsson was looking to be our #1 prospect, over both Lambert and Mc Groarty, and others, and that was based on some premonition that he was going to come into camp and take Pionk's roster spot.

Well after this TC, I'd say Pionk is firmly ahead of him, not in any danger., and it looks like Lundmark is more NHL ready, though Salomonsson still has the higher ceiling.

 

[NA Hockey]

I agree Chevy isn't likely satisfied with Names at 2C. But as a placeholder until we can get one significantly better, I think he is actually pretty good.

I also agree about a clean win on the PK - but CLEAN is key. Who will be our C on the PK? Probably not our 2C, unless you are counting Lowry as 2C. The C on the PK is likely going against the opposition's best FO man so you can only expect so much.

Names is an excellent centre. His positioning in both ends is great, plays with heart, has skill enough to make plays and is a great teammate. The only issue is he doesn't win faceoffs. The problem then is coaches are reluctant to have his line out for dzone draws and hard to have him take any PK draws.