Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[voyageur]

They're used often as a 2nd line. How many second lines you know from great teams are composed of 3 30pt players.

You are strictly talking ice time. What's the ratio of defensive zone draws for that line? If that is your go to, their primary job is to put the puck in the other end of the rink possession wise chip in, but if you measure shift lengths vs rink travelled the opportunities to score should have a lower threshold is some measurable variable form. If you have a successful checking line like the Jets do, that's part of the team success. Generating an offensive zone faceoff increases the chances to score. Lowry in the past has hit some top notch numbers for GA/60 but that's not the focal point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

More like he will do until the trade deadline

I hope not. We were no better after getting Monahan last year. He improved the PP but he could have done that lining up at 4LW at evens. IIRC our winning % actually went down slightly after getting him.

Maybe by that time one of our internal upgrades will be ready to take over for him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I like Namestnikov but his production was spread around different lines. He was good on the 4th line, as a winger. Became 2c from the moment Perfetti was moved to the wing...his defensive game is good, so he's essentially the Copp replacement without the faceoffs. The Jets brought Monahan in specifically for faceoffs, both zones, and to be a bumper guy on the PP. So both those roles are going to have to be solved internally going into the season. I realize that most faceoffs have no significance but want to see a coach with an angry look watch a lost draw end up in the back of the net. On the PK especially winning a clean draw is 20 seconds off the clock, if played right. For a coach drawing up offensive zone plays is usually based on won or scrambled draws. Namestnikov doesn't take many d-zone faceoffs, and he is a good enough skater to play at Ehlers pace, so it could be a non factor...but if Chevy was fishing for a C in the offseason good chance he might not be satisfied with the roster as it stands. Since it's hard to get quality players here might have to be patient with Lambert, Lucius and Yager and see where it goes.

I suppose the sample size last year was large enough for him to pass grade, but Pionk's success with Samberg is generally written off.

I agree Chevy isn't likely satisfied with Names at 2C. But as a placeholder until we can get one significantly better, I think he is actually pretty good.

I also agree about a clean win on the PK - but CLEAN is key. Who will be our C on the PK? Probably not our 2C, unless you are counting Lowry as 2C. The C on the PK is likely going against the opposition's best FO man so you can only expect so much.

 

[DRW204]

You are strictly talking ice time. What's the ratio of defensive zone draws for that line? If that is your go to, their primary job is to put the puck in the other end of the rink possession wise chip in, but if you measure shift lengths vs rink travelled the opportunities to score should have a lower threshold is some measurable variable form. If you have a successful checking line like the Jets do, that's part of the team success. Generating an offensive zone faceoff increases the chances to score. Lowry in the past has hit some top notch numbers for GA/60 but that's not the focal point.

if they are getting 2nd line worthy TOI they need to be better offensively in total goals, or rates, rather than near the bottom of the league.

the Jets will generally be respectable in GA b/c they have Helle in net. so although the third line is v good on the GA side they are pretty uni-dimensional in that way given their scoring is near the bottom of the league compared to similarly used fwds (using lowry as a reference point for 3rd line).

yes they are used in the dzone 6x/10 rather than 4x or 5x/10. it hasn't been a hinderance in generating offense given solid CF and xGF numbers. but they are some of the worst of similarly TOI fwds in the NHL at capitalizing (as mentioned their league-wide rank in GF in the previous post).

 

[voyageur]

if they are getting 2nd line worthy TOI they need to be better offensively in total goals, or rates, rather than near the bottom of the league.

the Jets will generally be respectable in GA b/c they have Helle in net. so although the third line is v good on the GA side they are pretty uni-dimensional in that way given their scoring is near the bottom of the league compared to similarly used fwds (using lowry as a reference point for 3rd line).

yes they are used in the dzone 6x/10 rather than 4x or 5x/10. it hasn't been a hinderance in generating offense given solid CF and xGF numbers. but they are one of the worst of similarly TOI fwds in the NHL at capitalizing.

Do you have comparable GF/GA ratios for comparison. For similar usage players not just TOI but defensive zone TOI? I think a lot of teams have more than one go to defensive zone line on their teams. Or don't even hard match. So Lowry has to be one of the most used players in the DZ in the NHL. Maybe I'm wrong.

 

[DRW204]

Do you have comparable GF/GA ratios for comparison. For similar usage players not just TOI but defensive zone TOI? I think a lot of teams have more than one go to defensive zone line on their teams. Or don't even hard match. So Lowry has to be one of the most used players in the DZ in the NHL. Maybe I'm wrong.

Natural stat trick doesn't segment TOI in zones. But they do have zone faceoff starts. Lowry (and his line) have a good Corsi-for and xGF with high dzone starts. Which means although they're often starting in the dzone, they still get offensive shot or opportunities.
Just average finishing for Lowry's line would be 13 more goals (meeting xGF)

 

[voyageur]

Natural stat trick doesn't segment TOI in zones. But they do have zone faceoff starts. Lowry (and his line) have a good Corsi-for and xGF with high dzone starts. Which means although they're often starting in the dzone, they still get offensive shot or opportunities.
Just average finishing for Lowry's line would be 13 more goals (meeting xGF)

All g, I am just trying to prop up our captain for a Selke nomination.

 

[DRW204]

All g, I am just trying to prop up our captain for a Selke nomination.

He won't win a selke scoring 30 pts

 

[TS Quint]

Just a reminder that a 2/3 line featuring Perfetti-Namestnikov (with either Ehlers or Iafallo on RW) scored goals at a rate equivalent to Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi, while allowing fewer goals against.

Table below is 5v5 rates per 60, adjusted for score and venue.

View attachment 905622

And people say quality of competition doesn't matter....

 

[TS Quint]

the Lowry line needs to be way better & consistent offensively to be a top-6 line. Appreciate the defensive efforts & whatnot, however, this team as a whole generally rates well on the GA side given Helle is in net. ie: the 2nd line w/ namestnikov or monahan, ESV had GA rates ~2 GA/60 or under (which is v good).

among fwds of similar mins in GF, using Lowry as a reference point for our 3rd line, ranked 160/188 in NHL Fwds & 166th in GF/60.

Weird. Where did the Jets finish in +/- as a team?

 

[Whileee]

And people say quality of competition doesn't matter....

It matters, but not as much as quality of teammates.

Good thing we can get some data on that, too.

Below are Namestnikov's shot and goal metrics adjusted for teammates and competition.

Below that is how Namestnikov's teammates and competition lined up. He played mainly with bottom 6 and mainly against top 6.

 

[Buffdog]

the Lowry line needs to be way better & consistent offensively to be a top-6 line. Appreciate the defensive efforts & whatnot, however, this team as a whole generally rates well on the GA side given Helle is in net. ie: the 2nd line w/ namestnikov or monahan, ESV had GA rates ~2 GA/60 or under (which is v good).

among fwds of similar mins in GF, using Lowry as a reference point for our 3rd line, ranked 160/188 in NHL Fwds & 166th in GF/60.

All that people give a shit about around here is goal differential

The nerdier types also care about xGF%

 

[Mathil8]

Looking at our roster and cap space, and in light of Heinola's injury, really wishing we would have moved out Iafallo and used his 4m and our cap space to go after a D. 6ish million just sitting there.

 

[Weezeric]

Looking at our roster and cap space, and in light of Heinola's injury, really wishing we would have moved out Iafallo and used his 4m and our cap space to go after a D. 6ish million just sitting there.

Ya, it’s always easier to judge how to use cap space after you know who’s going to get injured.

People have been complaining about blocking Heinola with veterans for 3 years now, so I don’t think doing that again would’ve been well received.

 

[Mathil8]

Ya, it’s always easier to judge how to use cap space after you know who’s going to get injured.

People have been complaining about blocking Heinola with veterans for 3 years now, so I don’t think doing that again would’ve been well received.

Agreed, but even with Heinola I feel we're a little thin on D, and we have excess cap space. Of course with Perfetti's caphit unknown until a few days ago, it would be hard to track how much space we had to use. That being said, by all reports it seems like bridge was always what Chevy was pushing.

On top of that I feel like our forward depth is pretty solid, to the point where although a useful player, Iafallo becomes redundant and his cap space could be better used on defence.

The real issue is that we need an improvement on Pionk on RD, but our organization seems blind to that.

Also just not that thrilled to have Stanley in our top 6 in general, let alone for an extended period which seems to be upcoming.

Edit: reading Stanley might be out for a while now. Our D is even thinner now!

 

[voyageur]

Agreed, but even with Heinola I feel we're a little thin on D, and we have excess cap space. Of course with Perfetti's caphit unknown until a few days ago, it would be hard to track how much space we had to use. That being said, by all reports it seems like bridge was always what Chevy was pushing.

On top of that I feel like our forward depth is pretty solid, to the point where although a useful player, Iafallo becomes redundant and his cap space could be better used on defence.

The real issue is that we need an improvement on Pionk on RD, but our organization seems blind to that.

Also just not that thrilled to have Stanley in our top 6 in general, let alone for an extended period which seems to be upcoming.

Edit: reading Stanley might be out for a while now. Our D is even thinner now!

This is a typical fan response to the team. Don't like Pionk. Not good enough. Replace him. Replace him with who? Who do you think is out there that is better, that doesn't have Winnipeg on their NTC? Lilljegren? Justin Barron? Drysdale?

You hear the coach talk about how Pionk wants to be a Jet, maybe we should pine for Trouba again, who kept trying to get out of being a Jet.

Iafallo was the Cap part of the Dubois trade, and the Jets probably knew he would fit into the dressing room/organization having played at UMD with Pionk, Toninato.

Hasn't been bad. Probably better than Matty Perreault as a 4th line player, if you are comparing salaries.

Who knows what the team looks like next season? Who knows where the injuries will come? Jets have good depth up front, as long as Scheif stays healthy. Defense we are about to find out. Glad Lundmark is getting a chance. He's a player I was hoping would become an NHLer, a 2nd round pick without any fanfare.

 

[Buffdog]

This is a typical fan response to the team. Don't like Pionk. Not good enough. Replace him. Replace him with who? Who do you think is out there that is better, that doesn't have Winnipeg on their NTC? Lilljegren? Justin Barron? Drysdale?

You hear the coach talk about how Pionk wants to be a Jet, maybe we should pine for Trouba again, who kept trying to get out of being a Jet.

Iafallo was the Cap part of the Dubois trade, and the Jets probably knew he would fit into the dressing room/organization having played at UMD with Pionk, Toninato.

Hasn't been bad. Probably better than Matty Perreault as a 4th line player, if you are comparing salaries.

Who knows what the team looks like next season? Who knows where the injuries will come? Jets have good depth up front, as long as Scheif stays healthy. Defense we are about to find out. Glad Lundmark is getting a chance. He's a player I was hoping would become an NHLer, a 2nd round pick without any fanfare.

Good post

"We need to upgrade 2RHD"

Oh, OK... I'll just invite Chevy over to my house and he can pick one from the RHD tree I have growing in my yard lol

 

[voyageur]

Good post

"We need to upgrade 2RHD"

Oh, OK... I'll just invite Chevy over to my house and he can pick one from the RHD tree I have growing in my yard lol

We know the Jets tried to make a play on Manson...he flat out turned us down. Son of a former Jet, from Prince Albert. Jeez I remember when we first got Pionk and the analytics said he was terrible, and he turned out to be our best defenseman that year.