Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

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voyageur

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Jul 10, 2011
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They're used often as a 2nd line. How many second lines you know from great teams are composed of 3 30pt players.
You are strictly talking ice time. What's the ratio of defensive zone draws for that line? If that is your go to, their primary job is to put the puck in the other end of the rink possession wise chip in, but if you measure shift lengths vs rink travelled the opportunities to score should have a lower threshold is some measurable variable form. If you have a successful checking line like the Jets do, that's part of the team success. Generating an offensive zone faceoff increases the chances to score. Lowry in the past has hit some top notch numbers for GA/60 but that's not the focal point.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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More like he will do until the trade deadline ;)

I hope not. :laugh: We were no better after getting Monahan last year. He improved the PP but he could have done that lining up at 4LW at evens. IIRC our winning % actually went down slightly after getting him.

Maybe by that time one of our internal upgrades will be ready to take over for him.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I like Namestnikov but his production was spread around different lines. He was good on the 4th line, as a winger. Became 2c from the moment Perfetti was moved to the wing...his defensive game is good, so he's essentially the Copp replacement without the faceoffs. The Jets brought Monahan in specifically for faceoffs, both zones, and to be a bumper guy on the PP. So both those roles are going to have to be solved internally going into the season. I realize that most faceoffs have no significance but want to see a coach with an angry look watch a lost draw end up in the back of the net. On the PK especially winning a clean draw is 20 seconds off the clock, if played right. For a coach drawing up offensive zone plays is usually based on won or scrambled draws. Namestnikov doesn't take many d-zone faceoffs, and he is a good enough skater to play at Ehlers pace, so it could be a non factor...but if Chevy was fishing for a C in the offseason good chance he might not be satisfied with the roster as it stands. Since it's hard to get quality players here might have to be patient with Lambert, Lucius and Yager and see where it goes.

I suppose the sample size last year was large enough for him to pass grade, but Pionk's success with Samberg is generally written off.

I agree Chevy isn't likely satisfied with Names at 2C. But as a placeholder until we can get one significantly better, I think he is actually pretty good.

I also agree about a clean win on the PK - but CLEAN is key. Who will be our C on the PK? Probably not our 2C, unless you are counting Lowry as 2C. The C on the PK is likely going against the opposition's best FO man so you can only expect so much.
 

DRW204

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Dec 26, 2010
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You are strictly talking ice time. What's the ratio of defensive zone draws for that line? If that is your go to, their primary job is to put the puck in the other end of the rink possession wise chip in, but if you measure shift lengths vs rink travelled the opportunities to score should have a lower threshold is some measurable variable form. If you have a successful checking line like the Jets do, that's part of the team success. Generating an offensive zone faceoff increases the chances to score. Lowry in the past has hit some top notch numbers for GA/60 but that's not the focal point.
if they are getting 2nd line worthy TOI they need to be better offensively in total goals, or rates, rather than near the bottom of the league.

the Jets will generally be respectable in GA b/c they have Helle in net. so although the third line is v good on the GA side they are pretty uni-dimensional in that way given their scoring is near the bottom of the league compared to similarly used fwds (using lowry as a reference point for 3rd line).

yes they are used in the dzone 6x/10 rather than 4x or 5x/10. it hasn't been a hinderance in generating offense given solid CF and xGF numbers. but they are some of the worst of similarly TOI fwds in the NHL at capitalizing (as mentioned their league-wide rank in GF in the previous post).
 
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voyageur

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Jul 10, 2011
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if they are getting 2nd line worthy TOI they need to be better offensively in total goals, or rates, rather than near the bottom of the league.

the Jets will generally be respectable in GA b/c they have Helle in net. so although the third line is v good on the GA side they are pretty uni-dimensional in that way given their scoring is near the bottom of the league compared to similarly used fwds (using lowry as a reference point for 3rd line).

yes they are used in the dzone 6x/10 rather than 4x or 5x/10. it hasn't been a hinderance in generating offense given solid CF and xGF numbers. but they are one of the worst of similarly TOI fwds in the NHL at capitalizing.
Do you have comparable GF/GA ratios for comparison. For similar usage players not just TOI but defensive zone TOI? I think a lot of teams have more than one go to defensive zone line on their teams. Or don't even hard match. So Lowry has to be one of the most used players in the DZ in the NHL. Maybe I'm wrong.
 

DRW204

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Dec 26, 2010
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Do you have comparable GF/GA ratios for comparison. For similar usage players not just TOI but defensive zone TOI? I think a lot of teams have more than one go to defensive zone line on their teams. Or don't even hard match. So Lowry has to be one of the most used players in the DZ in the NHL. Maybe I'm wrong.
Natural stat trick doesn't segment TOI in zones. But they do have zone faceoff starts. Lowry (and his line) have a good Corsi-for and xGF with high dzone starts. Which means although they're often starting in the dzone, they still get offensive shot or opportunities.
Just average finishing for Lowry's line would be 13 more goals (meeting xGF)
 

voyageur

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Jul 10, 2011
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Natural stat trick doesn't segment TOI in zones. But they do have zone faceoff starts. Lowry (and his line) have a good Corsi-for and xGF with high dzone starts. Which means although they're often starting in the dzone, they still get offensive shot or opportunities.
Just average finishing for Lowry's line would be 13 more goals (meeting xGF)
All g, I am just trying to prop up our captain for a Selke nomination.
 
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TS Quint

Stop writing “I mean” in your posts.
Sep 8, 2012
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Just a reminder that a 2/3 line featuring Perfetti-Namestnikov (with either Ehlers or Iafallo on RW) scored goals at a rate equivalent to Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi, while allowing fewer goals against.

Table below is 5v5 rates per 60, adjusted for score and venue.

View attachment 905622
And people say quality of competition doesn't matter....
 
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TS Quint

Stop writing “I mean” in your posts.
Sep 8, 2012
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the Lowry line needs to be way better & consistent offensively to be a top-6 line. Appreciate the defensive efforts & whatnot, however, this team as a whole generally rates well on the GA side given Helle is in net. ie: the 2nd line w/ namestnikov or monahan, ESV had GA rates ~2 GA/60 or under (which is v good).

among fwds of similar mins in GF, using Lowry as a reference point for our 3rd line, ranked 160/188 in NHL Fwds & 166th in GF/60.
Weird. Where did the Jets finish in +/- as a team?
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
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And people say quality of competition doesn't matter....
It matters, but not as much as quality of teammates.

Good thing we can get some data on that, too.

Below are Namestnikov's shot and goal metrics adjusted for teammates and competition.

Below that is how Namestnikov's teammates and competition lined up. He played mainly with bottom 6 and mainly against top 6.

1000002341.png
1000002342.png
 
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Buffdog

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Feb 13, 2019
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the Lowry line needs to be way better & consistent offensively to be a top-6 line. Appreciate the defensive efforts & whatnot, however, this team as a whole generally rates well on the GA side given Helle is in net. ie: the 2nd line w/ namestnikov or monahan, ESV had GA rates ~2 GA/60 or under (which is v good).

among fwds of similar mins in GF, using Lowry as a reference point for our 3rd line, ranked 160/188 in NHL Fwds & 166th in GF/60.
All that people give a shit about around here is goal differential

The nerdier types also care about xGF%
 
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