Speculation: 2024-25 Roster thread

[TheDarkWingThatDucks]

Srsly when the f can we just be a little angry at the lack of development from the dude we drafted over fantilli instead of blaming killorn and the limemates he’s had? Isn’t he supposed to lift the players around him up?

In 2 years, then you can be angry………..


You can be concerned now, although I would laugh at you if it wasn’t just like…. Ducks suck analytically, Leo has no stats …. I’m a little worried until he turns it around which I fully expect.

His numbers are similar to Barkov and Hughes…… what do you expect from a “frail” 18 year old thrust into the league… he’s not Conor McDavid, sorry if you expected that….. sorry if you thought he was Connor Bedard…. Maybe have realistic expectations and you won’t be disappointed as much….. over a billion dollar corporation that doesn’t care about you.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Moneypuck recently released a new model for predicting playoff and lottery odds. They currently show us with a 6.5% chance of making playoffs and 5% chance of landing the top pick.

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2025 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Stanley Cup Odds, Playoff seeding, and Draft Lottery Odds

moneypuck.com

 

[Hockey Duckie]

In 2 years, then you can be angry………..


You can be concerned now, although I would laugh at you if it wasn’t just like…. Ducks suck analytically, Leo has no stats …. I’m a little worried until he turns it around which I fully expect.

His numbers are similar to Barkov and Hughes…… what do you expect from a “frail” 18 year old thrust into the league… he’s not Conor McDavid, sorry if you expected that….. sorry if you thought he was Connor Bedard…. Maybe have realistic expectations and you won’t be disappointed as much….. over a billion dollar corporation that doesn’t care about you.

The Barkov/Hughes Trope

Barkov
18 years old: 54 gp, 24 pts (0.44 ppg rate)
19 years old: 71 gp, 36 pts (0.51 ppg rate)

Jack Hughes
18 years old: 61 gp, 21 pts (0.34 ppg rate)
19 years old: 56 gp, 31 pts (0.55 ppg rate)

Both Barkov and Hughes improved their offense in their second season. Carlsson is going the opposite direction, . Carlsson improving his offense in year 2 in the NHL is "realistic expectation", especially when using your Barkov/Hughes trope.

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Realistic Expectations

I think many of us want year 2 of Carlsson to at least match 2023-24 Carlsson. His scoring rate and CF% has dropped despite his OZ start% increased a tick. Reproducing what he did a year ago is a realistic expectation.

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Ducks forward Youth Comparison: Big Picture

This season, offense isn't an emphasis for our youths. Everyone's taken a step back offensively, excluding Cutter and Z. When Colangelo was brought up to the NHL club the first time around, it was to make him a 4th line grinder for eight games. Z has matched his rate from last season, but under Eakins, Z had a scoring rate of 0.80 ppg or higher for two consecutive seasons.

Looking at a bigger scope, Carlsson isn't the only one being affected. That is a significant concern.

 

[ohcomeonref]

The Barkov/Hughes Trope

Barkov
18 years old: 54 gp, 24 pts (0.44 ppg rate)
19 years old: 71 gp, 36 pts (0.51 ppg rate)

Jack Hughes
18 years old: 61 gp, 21 pts (0.34 ppg rate)
19 years old: 56 gp, 31 pts (0.55 ppg rate)

Both Barkov and Hughes improved their offense in their second season. Carlsson is going the opposite direction, . Carlsson improving his offense in year 2 in the NHL is "realistic expectation", especially when using your Barkov/Hughes trope.

---

Realistic Expectations

I think many of us want year 2 of Carlsson to at least match 2023-24 Carlsson. His scoring rate and CF% has dropped despite his OZ start% increased a tick. Reproducing what he did a year ago is a realistic expectation.

View attachment 974716

---

Ducks forward Youth Comparison: Big Picture

This season, offense isn't an emphasis for our youths. Everyone's taken a step back offensively, excluding Cutter and Z. When Colangelo was brought up to the NHL club the first time around, it was to make him a 4th line grinder for eight games. Z has matched his rate from last season, but under Eakins, Z had a scoring rate of 0.80 ppg or higher for two consecutive seasons.

Looking at a bigger scope, Carlsson isn't the only one being affected. That is a significant concern.

View attachment 974736

View attachment 974737

Cronin is like an artist!

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Cronin is like an artist!

A de"con"struction artist.

 

[TheDarkWingThatDucks]

The Barkov/Hughes Trope

Barkov
18 years old: 54 gp, 24 pts (0.44 ppg rate)
19 years old: 71 gp, 36 pts (0.51 ppg rate)

Jack Hughes
18 years old: 61 gp, 21 pts (0.34 ppg rate)
19 years old: 56 gp, 31 pts (0.55 ppg rate)

Both Barkov and Hughes improved their offense in their second season. Carlsson is going the opposite direction, . Carlsson improving his offense in year 2 in the NHL is "realistic expectation", especially when using your Barkov/Hughes trope.

---

Realistic Expectations

I think many of us want year 2 of Carlsson to at least match 2023-24 Carlsson. His scoring rate and CF% has dropped despite his OZ start% increased a tick. Reproducing what he did a year ago is a realistic expectation.

View attachment 974716

---

Ducks forward Youth Comparison: Big Picture

This season, offense isn't an emphasis for our youths. Everyone's taken a step back offensively, excluding Cutter and Z. When Colangelo was brought up to the NHL club the first time around, it was to make him a 4th line grinder for eight games. Z has matched his rate from last season, but under Eakins, Z had a scoring rate of 0.80 ppg or higher for two consecutive seasons.

Looking at a bigger scope, Carlsson isn't the only one being affected. That is a significant concern.

View attachment 974736

View attachment 974737

Barkov scored 14 pts his final 16 games, and Hughes scored 15 is final 20 games.

So Barkov was at .41 his first 54 games, and Hughes was .46 his first 35 games.

They both closed out the season very strong, which you have yet to give Leo a chance to do.

And I said we can be concerned, shouldn’t be angry yet.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Barkov scored 14 pts his final 16 games, and Hughes scored 15 is final 20 games.

So Barkov was at .41 his first 54 games, and Hughes was .46 his first 35 games.

They both closed out the season very strong, which you have yet to give Leo a chance to do.

And I said we can be concerned, shouldn’t be angry yet.

Based upon your selective splits, Barkov was -0.03 off from his first season and Hughes was +0.12 from his first season.

Carlsson is -0.20 off from his first season. I guess you're saying Carlsson's drop is equal to Barkov's drop and Hughes' increase?

 

[Quack Shot]

So the Ducks have gone on a 6-3-1 in the last 10 to get to .500 going into the 4 Nations Break.

The next 5 games are Boston (Away, 5-5-0), Detroit (Away, 7-2-1), Buffalo (Away, 5-5-0), Vancouver (Home, 6-3-1), and Chicago (Home, 3-3-4).

I think we beat Boston, Buffalo, Chicago. Going 3-2 or 3-1-1 to put our Point Percentage at .508 or .517. Biggest game will be Vancouver, win that in regulation could be huge.

This could make March really fun, what ANA and Utah need is Vancouver and Calgary to start having trouble. Calgary’s success seems a little surprising this season and they could come down to earth, Vancouver is always a head case, so that’s possible.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

So the Ducks have gone on a 6-3-1 in the last 10 to get to .500 going into the 4 Nations Break.

The next 5 games are Boston (Away, 5-5-0), Detroit (Away, 7-2-1), Buffalo (Away, 5-5-0), Vancouver (Home, 6-3-1), and Chicago (Home, 3-3-4).

I think we beat Boston, Buffalo, Chicago. Going 3-2 or 3-1-1 to put our Point Percentage at .508 or .517. Biggest game will be Vancouver, win that in regulation could be huge.

This could make March really fun, what ANA and Utah need is Vancouver and Calgary to start having trouble. Calgary’s success seems a little surprising this season and they could come down to earth, Vancouver is always a head case, so that’s possible.

Thread 'Ducks are at .500 - how will they finish?'

Sunday at 10:43 AM

The shootout win over LA last night, returned the Ducks to the .500 mark (24-24-6) for the first time since Dec 3rd. They have the following 28 games remaining

Feb 22 @ Boston
Feb 23 @ Detroit
Feb 25 @ Buffalo
Feb 27 vs Vancouver
Mar 1 vs Chicago
Mar 4 @ Edmonton
Mar 5 @ Vancouver
Mar 7 vs St Louis
Mar 9 vs NYI
Mar 11 vs Washington
Mar 12 @ Utah
Mar 14 vs Nashville
Mar 16 @ St Louis
Mar 18 @ Dallas
Mar 20 @ Nashville
Mar 23 vs Carolina
Mar 26 vs Boston
Mar 28 vs NYR
Mar 30 vs Toronto
April 1 vs San Jose
April 3 @ Calgary
April 5 @ Vancouver
April 7 vs Edmonton
April 9 vs Calgary...

• WhatTheDuck

 

[Hey234]

So the Ducks have gone on a 6-3-1 in the last 10 to get to .500 going into the 4 Nations Break.

The next 5 games are Boston (Away, 5-5-0), Detroit (Away, 7-2-1), Buffalo (Away, 5-5-0), Vancouver (Home, 6-3-1), and Chicago (Home, 3-3-4).

I think we beat Boston, Buffalo, Chicago. Going 3-2 or 3-1-1 to put our Point Percentage at .508 or .517. Biggest game will be Vancouver, win that in regulation could be huge.

This could make March really fun, what ANA and Utah need is Vancouver and Calgary to start having trouble. Calgary’s success seems a little surprising this season and they could come down to earth, Vancouver is always a head case, so that’s possible.

I was looking at these games last night. These next five games will dictate the rest of the season. I highly doubt they'll make the playoffs. However, to be close and in the race is huge. I just hope they don't drop the ball right away. It's nice to feel competitive.

 

[MMC]

We have 2 less wins than the current WC2 while having a game in hand

 

[ScarTroy]

We have 2 less wins than the current WC2 while having a game in hand

Just say it lol

 

[dracom]

We have 2 less wins than the current WC2 while having a game in hand

we're still 9 points behind them in the standings tho

 

[MMC]

we're still 9 points behind them in the standings tho

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I haven't read every detail of every post, but yeah...

The head coach is in charge of everything. He may delegate responsibility for the details to his assistants, but he absolutely is the architect for every aspect of the team's play. It would be ridiculous to think otherwise.

If a team can't defend in the NFL, the head coach can't simply say "go ask the defensive coordinator, not my problem." It's not any different in any other sport.

We've been here, done that with GM Murray citing the person in charge of the PP and PK is his responsibility; and also b/c the head coach doesn't have the final say on who to hire. That is the GM's responsibility. In the chart below (source: EP), we see Eakins inherited his PP and PK coaches in 2019-20. Then in 2021-22, Murray went and got two PP coaches in Ward and Brown as well as PK coach Stothers.

I don't blame Cronin for last year's PP unit b/c Brown was a holdover from prior to Cronin. I blame Verbeek for keeping Brown. New hire Clune actually had some accolade for improving the PP, but I don't see any connection with Cronin:

Clune, 37, joins the Ducks organization following two seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs in various coaching roles, beginning his post-playing career as a Player Development Coach in 2022 and joining the Toronto Marlies as Assistant Coach Nov. 29, 2023. In his first season behind the bench after joining partway through the 2023-24 campaign, Clune helped the Marlies to a Calder Cup Playoffs berth. The Marlies posted a 26-21-8 record after he joined as an Assistant Coach, while improving the power play dramatically from 13.0% (10-77) when he arrived to 21.9% (43-196) the remaining 55 games.​

As for Thompson, that's a Cronin suggestion connection:

"Cronin brought in Brent Thompson as an assistant coach to run the penalty kill and work with the defensemen. " ​

Verbeek should have fired Thompson last year b/c that PK unit kept deteriorating as the season went on. We haven't become noticeably better on the PK.

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NFL assistant coaches/coordinators fired

When you have a defensive coach, then he is hands off on the defensive side and vice versa. If the defensive side sucks with a defensive head coach, then the head coach gets fired. If the offensive side sucks with a defensive coach, then the offensive coordinator gets fired. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did this after the 2022 season with their offensive coordinator (and several other coaches on the offensive side) and kept their defensive minded head coach, Bowles. The OC after Leftwich was Dave Canales, who became the Panthers' new HC. The OC after Canales was Lian Coen, who became the Jaguars' new HC.

On the flip side, the Bucs fired defensive HC Lovie Smith and promoted OC Koetter to HC.

There are plenty of coordinators fired instead solely head coaching staffs this off-season alone: source.

 

[TheDarkWingThatDucks]

We've been here, done that with GM Murray citing the person in charge of the PP and PK is his responsibility; and also b/c the head coach doesn't have the final say on who to hire. That is the GM's responsibility. In the chart below (source: EP), we see Eakins inherited his PP and PK coaches in 2019-20. Then in 2021-22, Murray went and got two PP coaches in Ward and Brown as well as PK coach Stothers.

View attachment 975789

I don't blame Cronin for last year's PP unit b/c Brown was a holdover from prior to Cronin. I blame Verbeek for keeping Brown. New hire Clune actually had some accolade for improving the PP, but I don't see any connection with Cronin:

Clune, 37, joins the Ducks organization following two seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs in various coaching roles, beginning his post-playing career as a Player Development Coach in 2022 and joining the Toronto Marlies as Assistant Coach Nov. 29, 2023. In his first season behind the bench after joining partway through the 2023-24 campaign, Clune helped the Marlies to a Calder Cup Playoffs berth. The Marlies posted a 26-21-8 record after he joined as an Assistant Coach, while improving the power play dramatically from 13.0% (10-77) when he arrived to 21.9% (43-196) the remaining 55 games.​

As for Thompson, that's a Cronin suggestion connection:

"Cronin brought in Brent Thompson as an assistant coach to run the penalty kill and work with the defensemen. " ​

Verbeek should have fired Thompson last year b/c that PK unit kept deteriorating as the season went on. We haven't become noticeably better on the PK.

---

NFL assistant coaches/coordinators fired

When you have a defensive coach, then he is hands off on the defensive side and vice versa. If the defensive side sucks with a defensive head coach, then the head coach gets fired. If the offensive side sucks with a defensive coach, then the offensive coordinator gets fired. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did this after the 2022 season with their offensive coordinator (and several other coaches on the offensive side) and kept their defensive minded head coach, Bowles. The OC after Leftwich was Dave Canales, who became the Panthers' new HC. The OC after Canales was Lian Coen, who became the Jaguars' new HC.

On the flip side, the Bucs fired defensive HC Lovie Smith and promoted OC Koetter to HC.

There are plenty of coordinators fired instead solely head coaching staffs this off-season alone: source.

If you watch Cronin’s interview with Alexis before the season started. He says he has known Clune for a while and talked to him like 4-5 times over the last 5 years. Something to that extent. Cronin wanted him to help communicate to the ducklings. Like I said haven’t watched the interview in months, but definitely a Cronin connection with clune.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The Athletic Player Card update, Feb 9th edition.

Anaheim has a clear top-2 players on the roster. Then the rest are middle to terrible. This has to improve via trade, FA, or prospect development. Also, this another piece of evidence that the Ducks are relying on great goaltending.

 

[robbieboy3686]

The Athletic Player Card update, Feb 9th edition.

Anaheim has a clear top-2 players on the roster. Then the rest are middle to terrible. This has to improve via trade, FA, or prospect development. Also, this another piece of evidence that the Ducks are relying on great goaltending.

View attachment 975946

Wow, lacombe. Never been so glad to be wrong about a player.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The Athletic Player Card: Jan 15 and Feb 9 comparison

Forwards

• Line 1 slightly improved.
• Mac's offense on the rise.
• Line 3 defense got worse.
• Lundy and Leason's defensive play improved.

Defense

• The top pair offense and defense improved.
• Minty's offense is slowing creeping up.
• Trouba's offense and defense improving.
• Bottom pair has regressed offensively and defensively.

 

[Deuce22]

The Athletic Player Card update, Feb 9th edition.

Anaheim has a clear top-2 players on the roster. Then the rest are middle to terrible. This has to improve via trade, FA, or prospect development. Also, this another piece of evidence that the Ducks are relying on great goaltending.

View attachment 975946

There is so much noise that contributes to +/- that it can't be taken seriously when ranking players. That said, Lacombe's offensive jump is amazing. He always had the skills but is now being freed up to use them.

 

[MCB]

Wow, lacombe. Never been so glad to be wrong about a player.

Same, this crow is delicious.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

There is so much noise that contributes to +/- that it can't be taken seriously when ranking players. That said, Lacombe's offensive jump is amazing. He always had the skills but is now been freed up to use them.

That is some serious bullshit accusation on the Player Card stats that it's highly reliant on +/- ratings. That's a huge loss of credibility on your part.

Net Rating:

​

That value is according to Net Rating, our all-in-one player value stat based on each player’s Offensive and Defensive Rating. The card showcases all the stats that determine how strong each player’s ratings are on and off the puck. It’s a weighted combination of their production (goals, assists, expected goals, blocks, penalty differential) and their play-driving (on-ice expected and actual goal stats), adjusted for difficulty (quality of competition and teammates). The cards also show each player’s market value based on total contributions.​

Offensive and Defensive Ratings:

Offensive Rating: A weighted combination of goals, primary assists, secondary assists, individual expected goals, faceoffs, penalties drawn, expected goals for impact at five-on-five, goals for impact at five-on-five, power-play goal impact and usage.​

​

Defensive Rating: A weighted combination of blocked shots, faceoffs, penalties taken, expected goals against impact at five-on-five, goals against impact at five-on-five, penalty kill impact and usage.​

 

[Deuce22]

That is some serious bullshit accusation on the Player Card stats that it's highly reliant on +/- ratings. That's a huge loss of credibility on your part.

Net Rating:

​

That value is according to Net Rating, our all-in-one player value stat based on each player’s Offensive and Defensive Rating. The card showcases all the stats that determine how strong each player’s ratings are on and off the puck. It’s a weighted combination of their production (goals, assists, expected goals, blocks, penalty differential) and their play-driving (on-ice expected and actual goal stats), adjusted for difficulty (quality of competition and teammates). The cards also show each player’s market value based on total contributions.​

Offensive and Defensive Ratings:

Offensive Rating: A weighted combination of goals, primary assists, secondary assists, individual expected goals, faceoffs, penalties drawn, expected goals for impact at five-on-five, goals for impact at five-on-five, power-play goal impact and usage.​

​

Defensive Rating: A weighted combination of blocked shots, faceoffs, penalties taken, expected goals against impact at five-on-five, goals against impact at five-on-five, penalty kill impact and usage.​

I was responding to your initial post, which made the claim that almost the entire roster was "middle to terrible" based on a +/- chart. The subsequent charts hadn't been posted yet. No credibility lost, just you jumping the gun with a silly accusation.