Speculation: 2024-25 Roster thread

Dr Johnny Fever

RIP Grizzly 399
Apr 11, 2012
22,232
7,265
Lower Left Coast
The Trouba trade caused the logjam on D. In PV’s defense he claimed the deal only came up very recently. But even if that’s true, he’s the GM. He’s the guy that is supposed to have the big picture in mind. As such maybe he’s working his tail off to move Fowler or Dumo. But I do think it’s not at all good to intentionally bench Minty, Zell, LaCombe, or Hellison until the TDL. They are the future and have been playing well. None should be sent down while playing this well. This is exactly how they gain experience so that they are prepared to carry the team when we’re actually in a position to be playing for something other than a lottery pick.

It is incumbent upon Verbeek to fix the problem asap. That’s his job.
 

Hockey Duckie

Registered User
Jul 25, 2003
19,302
14,555
southern cal
The Trouba trade caused the logjam on D. In PV’s defense he claimed the deal only came up very recently. But even if that’s true, he’s the GM. He’s the guy that is supposed to have the big picture in mind. As such maybe he’s working his tail off to move Fowler or Dumo. But I do think it’s not at all good to intentionally bench Minty, Zell, LaCombe, or Hellison until the TDL. They are the future and have been playing well. None should be sent down while playing this well. This is exactly how they gain experience so that they are prepared to carry the team when we’re actually in a position to be playing for something other than a lottery pick.

It is incumbent upon Verbeek to fix the problem asap. That’s his job.

Two things I'd like to address from your post: 1) Our youth D development and 2) big picture via Trouba (and Drysdale) trades

Our Youth D
  • IMO, we have two OFD's in Minty and Zell, one DFD in Helleson, and one 2-way D in LaCombe.
    • Minty and Zell will take time to learn how to play defense as the metrics have been showing this year. Both came out the CHL.
      Minty and Zell were more known for their high-end offense, which earned them D-man of the year for their respective leagues.
    • Helleson has been a great surprise in the NHL only b/c our AHL program was trying to make Helleson as an all-around, top-pairing D-man.
      Helleson was more known for his shutdown game at the WJC-20 and the NCAA lends itself to developing defense for d-men.
    • LaCombe was developed as a 2-way D in his four years in college.
      He was a converted forward in high school. His speed, build, and high-end offense were evident in high school as he scored 89 pts in 54 games.
      In college, LaCombe learned defense first as he was in the top-3 in shot blocking for all four years in college. His offense started slow for his first two seasons in college and then takes off in the second half. The last two seasons in college, he turned it on more and was the teams PP1 QB.

LaCombe and Helleson learned to play defense at the NCAA level. LaCombe spent four years and Helleson three years in college, but both are 2019 draftees. They are closer to a finished product. It is apparent that their defense is better than their CHL teammates at the moment. Zell was drafted in the 2021 draft and Minty the 2022 draft. They both have years of learning defense compared to LaCombe and Helleson.

This season, whoever is paired up with Zell, they will have have the highest OZ start%. I tracked this with Fowler-Zell and LaCombe-Zell. I love Zell's offense, but his defense is still a work in progress and improving.

Minty started this season in a top-4/top-pairing role. And it was wearing on him. Last year, I tracked when he was on the third pairing role to top-4/top pairing role. In a sheltered 3rd pairing role, Minty's offense was popping at 0.55 ppg and only a -1 rating in the first 20 games. His offense and defense dipped when elevated to 2nd pairing role in the next 20 games with a 0.44 ppg rate and -10 rating. His worst outing last year was a top-pairing role with Gudas, where Minty had a 0.25 ppg rate and a -5 rating in only eight games.

Here is how Minty, Zell, and LaCombe finished in the NHL last season, their rookie season.

Ducks2023-24Last 22/23Games
PlayerGame setGamesGAPtsPPG+/-HitsBlocksComments
LaCombe49 to 71231780.3511244From Feb 19 to Apr 18
Minty41 to 63232790.39-92922from Feb 13 to Mar 30
Zell5 to 26222680.36-81033From Mar 1 to Apr 18



Let's look at some stats for this season.

Minty's last game before benching was Dec 1. Here are the stats after that game.

1734069520887.png


Minty and Zell are turnover machines. What helps Zell's CF% is his OZone start%. Minty really needed a break and he finally got a break when Fowler returned from injury. Remember, both Fowler and Vaak have been out of the lineup due to injuries to where the team called up both Helleson and Hinds. Also, some on here noticed his step was slower in his last two games before being a healthy scratch and might have been playing through injury. Either way, Minty was able to recoup for over a week.

Helleson played as a 3rd pairing with vet Dumo. They threw him to the wolves with such a high volume DZone Start % b/c the only pairing to be sheltered was whoever was paired with Zell. Surprisingly, Helleson's 3rd pairing, simplified role proved to be a boon for him and the Ducks. He was paired with Dumo, the same Dumo that paired with Minty before Fowler got injured. Helleson's CF% is much better than Minty's. Granted, Helleson was playing a 3rd pairing role to Minty's top-4/top pairing role. Although, Helleson only had a brief cup of Joe with the Ducks over two seasons ago as his only NHL experience compared to Minty's 63 games last year.

LaCombe started off rough, probably because of the sickness that cost him the start of the season. It took some time for him to get back into shape and speed. Then has turned on the offense. He has become our best scoring youth D in the past eight games.

LaCombe-Zell was a great pairing. In Minty's first game back, they put him Zell to start the game. They didn't click and part of the reason why is they both are still learning the defensive game as OFD's. Both want to jump in all the time. They split up Minty-Zell to fit a more traditional OFD-DFD pair of Minty-Gudas and Dumo-Zell. In Minty's second game back, I kept seeing him letting an opposing forward get ahead of him b/c Minty was too busy thinking of activating and cheating up to the play. Minty is still learning.



The Trouba (and Drysdale) trade with big picture in mind.

When LW Cutter was made available, GM Verbeek jumped on that like the Blackhawks' GM rushing to the cameras after winning the lottery for Bedard! The big picture for Verbeek was getting a big, fast sniper for his future offense. When RD Drysdale fell to injury, three things happened: LaCombe stepped up to fill a void at RD, Vaak's game showed up finally as he was healthy, and Zell was showing off like an AHL all-star at RD. Those three players helped to facilitate a young RD made out of glass trade for a big time potential offense in Cutter. Finding a top-4 RD will come later somehow.

Almost a year later, GM Verbeek made another in-season trade (prior to the TDL) when RD Trouba was made available. Verbeek found his veteran bridge RD. Trouba is 30 years old with another year under contract. Dumo is 33 years old, on a one-year contract, and has desires to go back east. Fowler is 33 years old and Verbeek has urged Fowler to increase the # of teams to be traded to for his services. Gudas is 34 years old and one extra year left on his contract, but his play is deteriorating this year. I think that Verbeek is intending to re-sign Trouba to act as that veteran presence on the blueline as we turnover on Fowler, Dumo, and Gudas soon.

The price paid to take on Trouba's full salary of $8 mil AAV was Vaak and a 2025 4th round pick. We overpaid, but Verbeek was desperate to secure a bridge vet D. Helleson was our new Vaak, but plays RD. We do not know how long RD Luneau will need to develop in the AHL, if RD Warren will pan out, nor if we can sign RD Moore out of college. Trouba helps tamper down some of those questions for another season as RD Gudas is also signed for next year.

The Trouba trade did complicate things as we had all eight d-men healthy. We all knew the result would become a rotation of sorts between all four youths in Minty, Zell, LaCombe, and Helleson. Minty needed the healthy scratch, though that occurred before the Trouba trade. When Minty returned, LaCombe sat for a game. Although, I think Zell getting physically targeted early in the Sens game probably prompted Zell take a day off from the abuse in a back-to-back situation. But also looking at Zell's last seven games, he's been scoreless and that surprised the hell out of me b/c this board had me hypnotized how great Zell's offense is today. Helleson draws the shortest stick in this scenario b/c his game is redundant with Gudas and Trouba's role on the right side. Minty, Zell, and LaCombe can give the Ducks offense, but also that Zell and LaCombe can play RD helps to push Helleson lower on the rotation loop. Not many are crying the Helleson has missed two consecutive games.

Using the Dec 1 chart above, Minty and Zell could be used in a rotation. The d-men in a rotation last year were LaCombe, Vaak, and Lindstrom. No one cared if LaCombe sat, but did care when Vaak was scratched last year. This year, no one cared when LaCombe was scratched, but do care if Minty or Zell were scratched. It's very odd b/c LaCombe has looked like our best youth D for the moment. Also, LaCombe is no longer waiver exempt, but the other three are waiver exempt. Helleson might be the one that gets sent back down to the AHL as there is no need to carry 8-D while sitting two youths. Then get called back up once Fowler is traded. The problem still arises that one youth D will be sitting out.

On a tangent about sitting out, LD Dionicio has been healthy scratched for six consecutive games in the AHL, according to Defend the Nest. Our org is a mess.

Anyhow, I get the big picture that Verbeek wants. It is messy, but I understand it. (Please don't confuse me understanding Verbeek's big picture with me agreeing with it b/c I still don't know what to think about the Trouba trade.) By the TDL, it is very probable that both Fowler and Dumo will be shipped out and that will open up more roster spots for our youth. Maybe we can regain that 2026 4th round pick we used to acquire Dumo at this year's TDL from a Dumo trade.
 

ohcomeonref

#FireCronin
Sponsor
Oct 18, 2014
7,156
8,511
Alberta, Canada
Our offense has gotten worse each of the last 3 years. 2.51 g/pg —> 2.48 —> 2.36. But our goal differential has significantly improved, from -1.6 in 22-23, to -1.0 in 23-24, to -0.7 this year.

So we’re bad, but because we can occasionally prevent offense (usually though goaltending), we are occasionally competitive.

So this proves that we are, in fact, getting more boring. It's not just me, the stats bear it out!
 

robbieboy3686

Registered User
Jan 17, 2016
3,537
2,406
Two things I'd like to address from your post: 1) Our youth D development and 2) big picture via Trouba (and Drysdale) trades

Our Youth D
  • IMO, we have two OFD's in Minty and Zell, one DFD in Helleson, and one 2-way D in LaCombe.
    • Minty and Zell will take time to learn how to play defense as the metrics have been showing this year. Both came out the CHL.
      Minty and Zell were more known for their high-end offense, which earned them D-man of the year for their respective leagues.
    • Helleson has been a great surprise in the NHL only b/c our AHL program was trying to make Helleson as an all-around, top-pairing D-man.
      Helleson was more known for his shutdown game at the WJC-20 and the NCAA lends itself to developing defense for d-men.
    • LaCombe was developed as a 2-way D in his four years in college.
      He was a converted forward in high school. His speed, build, and high-end offense were evident in high school as he scored 89 pts in 54 games.
      In college, LaCombe learned defense first as he was in the top-3 in shot blocking for all four years in college. His offense started slow for his first two seasons in college and then takes off in the second half. The last two seasons in college, he turned it on more and was the teams PP1 QB.

LaCombe and Helleson learned to play defense at the NCAA level. LaCombe spent four years and Helleson three years in college, but both are 2019 draftees. They are closer to a finished product. It is apparent that their defense is better than their CHL teammates at the moment. Zell was drafted in the 2021 draft and Minty the 2022 draft. They both have years of learning defense compared to LaCombe and Helleson.

This season, whoever is paired up with Zell, they will have have the highest OZ start%. I tracked this with Fowler-Zell and LaCombe-Zell. I love Zell's offense, but his defense is still a work in progress and improving.

Minty started this season in a top-4/top-pairing role. And it was wearing on him. Last year, I tracked when he was on the third pairing role to top-4/top pairing role. In a sheltered 3rd pairing role, Minty's offense was popping at 0.55 ppg and only a -1 rating in the first 20 games. His offense and defense dipped when elevated to 2nd pairing role in the next 20 games with a 0.44 ppg rate and -10 rating. His worst outing last year was a top-pairing role with Gudas, where Minty had a 0.25 ppg rate and a -5 rating in only eight games.

Here is how Minty, Zell, and LaCombe finished in the NHL last season, their rookie season.

Ducks2023-24Last 22/23Games
PlayerGame setGamesGAPtsPPG+/-HitsBlocksComments
LaCombe49 to 71231780.3511244From Feb 19 to Apr 18
Minty41 to 63232790.39-92922from Feb 13 to Mar 30
Zell5 to 26222680.36-81033From Mar 1 to Apr 18



Let's look at some stats for this season.

Minty's last game before benching was Dec 1. Here are the stats after that game.

View attachment 944591

Minty and Zell are turnover machines. What helps Zell's CF% is his OZone start%. Minty really needed a break and he finally got a break when Fowler returned from injury. Remember, both Fowler and Vaak have been out of the lineup due to injuries to where the team called up both Helleson and Hinds. Also, some on here noticed his step was slower in his last two games before being a healthy scratch and might have been playing through injury. Either way, Minty was able to recoup for over a week.

Helleson played as a 3rd pairing with vet Dumo. They threw him to the wolves with such a high volume DZone Start % b/c the only pairing to be sheltered was whoever was paired with Zell. Surprisingly, Helleson's 3rd pairing, simplified role proved to be a boon for him and the Ducks. He was paired with Dumo, the same Dumo that paired with Minty before Fowler got injured. Helleson's CF% is much better than Minty's. Granted, Helleson was playing a 3rd pairing role to Minty's top-4/top pairing role. Although, Helleson only had a brief cup of Joe with the Ducks over two seasons ago as his only NHL experience compared to Minty's 63 games last year.

LaCombe started off rough, probably because of the sickness that cost him the start of the season. It took some time for him to get back into shape and speed. Then has turned on the offense. He has become our best scoring youth D in the past eight games.

LaCombe-Zell was a great pairing. In Minty's first game back, they put him Zell to start the game. They didn't click and part of the reason why is they both are still learning the defensive game as OFD's. Both want to jump in all the time. They split up Minty-Zell to fit a more traditional OFD-DFD pair of Minty-Gudas and Dumo-Zell. In Minty's second game back, I kept seeing him letting an opposing forward get ahead of him b/c Minty was too busy thinking of activating and cheating up to the play. Minty is still learning.



The Trouba (and Drysdale) trade with big picture in mind.

When LW Cutter was made available, GM Verbeek jumped on that like the Blackhawks' GM rushing to the cameras after winning the lottery for Bedard! The big picture for Verbeek was getting a big, fast sniper for his future offense. When RD Drysdale fell to injury, three things happened: LaCombe stepped up to fill a void at RD, Vaak's game showed up finally as he was healthy, and Zell was showing off like an AHL all-star at RD. Those three players helped to facilitate a young RD made out of glass trade for a big time potential offense in Cutter. Finding a top-4 RD will come later somehow.

Almost a year later, GM Verbeek made another in-season trade (prior to the TDL) when RD Trouba was made available. Verbeek found his veteran bridge RD. Trouba is 30 years old with another year under contract. Dumo is 33 years old, on a one-year contract, and has desires to go back east. Fowler is 33 years old and Verbeek has urged Fowler to increase the # of teams to be traded to for his services. Gudas is 34 years old and one extra year left on his contract, but his play is deteriorating this year. I think that Verbeek is intending to re-sign Trouba to act as that veteran presence on the blueline as we turnover on Fowler, Dumo, and Gudas soon.

The price paid to take on Trouba's full salary of $8 mil AAV was Vaak and a 2025 4th round pick. We overpaid, but Verbeek was desperate to secure a bridge vet D. Helleson was our new Vaak, but plays RD. We do not know how long RD Luneau will need to develop in the AHL, if RD Warren will pan out, nor if we can sign RD Moore out of college. Trouba helps tamper down some of those questions for another season as RD Gudas is also signed for next year.

The Trouba trade did complicate things as we had all eight d-men healthy. We all knew the result would become a rotation of sorts between all four youths in Minty, Zell, LaCombe, and Helleson. Minty needed the healthy scratch, though that occurred before the Trouba trade. When Minty returned, LaCombe sat for a game. Although, I think Zell getting physically targeted early in the Sens game probably prompted Zell take a day off from the abuse in a back-to-back situation. But also looking at Zell's last seven games, he's been scoreless and that surprised the hell out of me b/c this board had me hypnotized how great Zell's offense is today. Helleson draws the shortest stick in this scenario b/c his game is redundant with Gudas and Trouba's role on the right side. Minty, Zell, and LaCombe can give the Ducks offense, but also that Zell and LaCombe can play RD helps to push Helleson lower on the rotation loop. Not many are crying the Helleson has missed two consecutive games.

Using the Dec 1 chart above, Minty and Zell could be used in a rotation. The d-men in a rotation last year were LaCombe, Vaak, and Lindstrom. No one cared if LaCombe sat, but did care when Vaak was scratched last year. This year, no one cared when LaCombe was scratched, but do care if Minty or Zell were scratched. It's very odd b/c LaCombe has looked like our best youth D for the moment. Also, LaCombe is no longer waiver exempt, but the other three are waiver exempt. Helleson might be the one that gets sent back down to the AHL as there is no need to carry 8-D while sitting two youths. Then get called back up once Fowler is traded. The problem still arises that one youth D will be sitting out.

On a tangent about sitting out, LD Dionicio has been healthy scratched for six consecutive games in the AHL, according to Defend the Nest. Our org is a mess.

Anyhow, I get the big picture that Verbeek wants. It is messy, but I understand it. (Please don't confuse me understanding Verbeek's big picture with me agreeing with it b/c I still don't know what to think about the Trouba trade.) By the TDL, it is very probable that both Fowler and Dumo will be shipped out and that will open up more roster spots for our youth. Maybe we can regain that 2026 4th round pick we used to acquire Dumo at this year's TDL from a Dumo trade.
Well written ty
 

FlyingV09

Registered User
Jun 15, 2009
852
773
Alberta, Canada
I’m really interested to see how things shake out for this team with the defense.

Zellweger, LaCombe, and Mintyukov all look like NHL regulars. Dumoulin, Gudas, and Trouba bring the veteran presence. Does Dumoulin stick around next year? Do we extend Trouba?

Helleson looked great in his short stint this year. Luneau is knocking at the door next year I imagine. Solberg is a couple years away, but looks like a great pick.

And then there are guys like Hinds and Warren with the Gulls. Will one of them grow enough to earn a shot?

I’d be very curious to see the D pairs 3 years from now.
 

MMC

Global Moderator
May 11, 2014
51,704
44,278
Orange County, CA
How much do you offer Dumoulin on an extension? Would prefer to just overpay him on a 2 year if we keep him. Gudas shouldn't be moved, we can afford him and he deserves a chance to bounceback. Time will tell on Trouba (both on if he's a fit and what it'll cost to keep him here.

How would you rank our upcoming UFAs as far as how much you would prioritize extending them over trading them? For me it would be:

Dumoulin
Vatrano
McGinn
Leason
Fabbri
 

Dr Johnny Fever

RIP Grizzly 399
Apr 11, 2012
22,232
7,265
Lower Left Coast
How much do you offer Dumoulin on an extension? Would prefer to just overpay him on a 2 year if we keep him. Gudas shouldn't be moved, we can afford him and he deserves a chance to bounceback. Time will tell on Trouba (both on if he's a fit and what it'll cost to keep him here.

How would you rank our upcoming UFAs as far as how much you would prioritize extending them over trading them? For me it would be:

Dumoulin
Vatrano
McGinn
Leason
Fabbri
The TDL is March 7. I wouldn't prioritize anything until sometime mid Feb.
 

Hey234

Registered User
Sponsor
May 7, 2010
973
1,491
Southern California
How much do you offer Dumoulin on an extension? Would prefer to just overpay him on a 2 year if we keep him. Gudas shouldn't be moved, we can afford him and he deserves a chance to bounceback. Time will tell on Trouba (both on if he's a fit and what it'll cost to keep him here.

How would you rank our upcoming UFAs as far as how much you would prioritize extending them over trading them? For me it would be:

Dumoulin
Vatrano
McGinn
Leason
Fabbri

IMO, I don't think offer him an extension. I think they roll with Helleson next year and trade Dumoulin at the deadline. I also think Vatrano is gone at the deadline. Signs seem to point towards Verbeek already wanting to extend Trouba so I would bet he's staying as is the captain. I like Leason, McGinn, and Fabbri in the bottom six so I could see them re-signed. For me:

Leason
Fabbri
McGinn

Vatrano
Dumoulin
 

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