2024-25 Roster Thread #2: Midseasonnar

[deadhead]

Foerster and York both played about 1 season combined worth of AHL games (Foerster just over 1 season, York just under) over several years, they didn't exactly spend a ton of time there developing. Brink too has played less than a seasons worth of AHL games I believe.

Plus how do you prove there were no ill development effects, considering we wouldn't be able to tell if they could have been better in a better AHL development environment?


"The Islanders zone" part of the schedule is even more of a chore to watch than regular Flyers game.

Very few top prospects spend more than a year in the AHL, if they do, they're usually disappointments.
The players who develop in the AHL are guys with limitations to their game.

McDonald, is a perfect example, big, good skater but limited puck skills, for him to make it he has to polish his defensive fundamentals (angles, positioning, first pass out of the D-zone) b/c that's his only path to the NHL. Seeler is a good example of a limited player who did just that.

Eyeball test says most players out of LHV seem to be fundamentally sound when they're called up, what limits a lot of them is pure talent. Lycksell is a good example, if he was a couple strides faster he'd stick. Otherwise, NHL ready.

 

[freakydallas13]

Very few top prospects spend more than a year in the AHL, if they do, they're usually disappointments.
The players who develop in the AHL are guys with limitations to their game.

McDonald, is a perfect example, big, good skater but limited puck skills, for him to make it he has to polish his defensive fundamentals (angles, positioning, first pass out of the D-zone) b/c that's his only path to the NHL. Seeler is a good example of a limited player who did just that.

Eyeball test says most players out of LHV seem to be fundamentally sound when they're called up, what limits a lot of them is pure talent. Lycksell is a good example, if he was a couple strides faster he'd stick. Otherwise, NHL ready.

If most top prospects spend very little time in the AHL, how can you attribute any development they have to their time in the AHL? Again, we have no idea if their time in the AHL helped or hurt them, because we haven't seen how they would be without it.

 

[deadhead]

If most too prospects spend very little time in the AHL, how can you attribute any development they have to their time in the AHL? Again, we have no idea if their time in the AHL helped or hurt them, because we haven't seen how they would be without it.

Then there are no grounds to criticize the Flyer player development process, are there?

Last five years only high draft pick (1st and 2nd rounds) to come up short after entering the system has been Tuomaala, and that looks more like a drafting mistake than development.

Otherwise, every draft pick has played up to or exceeded expectations.
Problem is CF traded away too many draft picks trying to "win now."

They turned Seeler and Zamula and Ersson into legitimate NHL starters.

Don't think the problem is player development with this organization, rather, an incoherent strategy that had them bleed assets (mostly draft picks) from 2019-2022, combined with bad drafting from 2016-18. It's not like they've let promising prospects leave and succeed elsewhere, it's that they didn't have enough promising prospects in the first place.

 

[MJL66]

First, Ciernak has to get to the SHL and show he can play at that level.
Tuomaala is fast, and Gendron is quick, both can shoot, neither has a clue about the rest of their game.
Speed and quickness are no different that size, nice if you have it, but it doesn't make you a player.

Tippett doesn't have a clue about the rest of his game other than shooting the puck and they signed him to an 8 year deal.

 

[freakydallas13]

Then there are no grounds to criticize the Flyer player development process, are there?

Last five years only high draft pick (1st and 2nd rounds) to come up short after entering the system has been Tuomaala, and that looks more like a drafting mistake than development.

Otherwise, every draft pick has played up to or exceeded expectations.
Problem is CF traded away too many draft picks trying to "win now."

They turned Seeler and Zamula and Ersson into legitimate NHL starters.

Don't think the problem is player development with this organization, rather, an incoherent strategy that had them bleed assets (mostly draft picks) from 2019-2022, combined with bad drafting from 2016-18. It's not like they've let promising prospects leave and succeed elsewhere, it's that they didn't have enough promising prospects in the first place.

Well a bunch of young players (York, Farabee, Cates until 20 games ago) keep regressing, so shouldn't we be questioning the institutional development? Either that or the drafting I guess.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

The Phantoms have had maybe two or three objectively good seasons since leaving the Spectrum. That was in 2009. They missed the playoffs all five years in Glens Falls and have been a bubble team at best in Allentown outside of 2016-18. And the only reason they made it the last two years is the stupid expanded playoff format in the AHL.

 

[renberg]

Others can disagree but Brink, Foerster and York didn't improve that much at LHV from what they were when they turned pro. Foerster's greatest improvement was in his skating which he did during the summers. Where Brink, Foerster and York really did improve was at the NHL level. Mostly by adjusting there games to that of the NHL.
The fact that Lycksell, Andrae, Tuomaala and others can't make that next step out of the A might be due to a lack of talent but it also could be because of the poor development situation that exists in LHV. The fact is that too many players of whom there were high hopes have not grown their games there. Some have even been described as being too wrecked to be repaired coming out of the Flyers development system. Lappy might be a great guy and fun in the locker room as a player but the history of improvement at LHV is unimpressive at best.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Foerster and York both played about 1 season combined worth of AHL games (Foerster just over 1 season, York just under) over several years, they didn't exactly spend a ton of time there developing. Brink too has played less than a seasons worth of AHL games I believe.

Plus how do you prove there were no ill development effects, considering we wouldn't be able to tell if they could have been better in a better AHL development environment?


"The Islanders zone" part of the schedule is even more of a chore to watch than regular Flyers game.

We've just gotta trust him that a program which emphasizes useless traits rather than fostering useful ones is good. And that the whopping flop of several highly regarded prospect classes is a pure coincidence unrelated to those processes.

 

[Cody Webster]

Then there are no grounds to criticize the Flyer player development process, are there?

Last five years only high draft pick (1st and 2nd rounds) to come up short after entering the system has been Tuomaala, and that looks more like a drafting mistake than development.

Otherwise, every draft pick has played up to or exceeded expectations.
Problem is CF traded away too many draft picks trying to "win now."

They turned Seeler and Zamula and Ersson into legitimate NHL starters.

Don't think the problem is player development with this organization, rather, an incoherent strategy that had them bleed assets (mostly draft picks) from 2019-2022, combined with bad drafting from 2016-18. It's not like they've let promising prospects leave and succeed elsewhere, it's that they didn't have enough promising prospects in the first place.

Didn't you have Tuomaala penciled into the top 6 the last couple years? Sounds like a development issue to me

 

[deadhead]

Tippett doesn't have a clue about the rest of his game other than shooting the puck and they signed him to an 8 year deal.

Tippett is an exceptional athlete, 6'1 210 and one of the fastest skaters in the NHL, with a plus shot, non-stop motor, one of the best Flyers in terms of zone entries and works hard to get back on the back check (even if he doesn't always know where he should be).

For a guy who is "totally useless," according to EH he's put up 11.2, 8.8 and 6.0 (2/3 of a season) goals above replacement the last three seasons.

average GAR and xGAR to produce a more "stable" measure, for most players, GAR should regress to xGAR
[this year is only 50g, so multiply by 1.6 to "normalize" to a full season]
Foerster 12.3, 3.7, xGAR 11.5, 8.9 - average 11.9, 6.8
Cates 10.3, 8.5, 4.8, xGAR 7.7, 11.8, 5.4 - average 9.0, 10.2, 5.1
TK 0.5, 8.6, 2.1, xGAR 1.6, 8.8, 7.2 - average 1.1, 8.7, 4.6
Tippett 11.2, 8.8, 6.0, xGAR 10.5, 7.1, 2.4 - average 10.9, 8.0, 4.2
Frost 3.7, 6.7, 6.0, xGAR 3.7, 6.1, 2.1 - average 3.7, 6.4, 4.1
Hathaway 6.5, 6.6, xGAR 8.8, 2.0 - average 7.7, 4.3
Michkov 1.4, xGAR 5.6 - average 3.5
Couts 8.7, 3.2, xGAR 3.7, 3.4 - average 6.2, 3.3
Poehling 1.0, 3.2, xGAR 3.5, 1.2 - average 2.3, 2.2
Laughton -1.8, -10.9, 3.3, xGAR 1.5, -15.0, 0.9 - average -0.1, -13.0, 2.1
Brink 0.8, 2.7, xGAR 0.3, 0.9 - average 0.6, 1.8
Farabee 8.7, 2.3, -1.6, xGAR 0.4, 8.3, -2.2 - average 4.6, 4.8, -1.9

York 6.2, -0.7, 4.2, xGAR 5.2, 5.5, 8.7 - average 5.7, 2.4, 6.5
Sanheim -4.8, 3.7, 4.9, xGAR 2.0, 5.9, 3.6 - average -1.4, 4.8, 4.3
Seeler 11.8, 10.7, 5.3 - xGAR 10.7, 5.2, 2.1 - average 11.3, 8.0, 3.7
Risto 9.0, 2.1, 4.2 - xGAR 3.2, 4.4, 2.1 - average 6.1, 3.3, 3.2
Zamula 2.1, 2.1, xGAR -0.8, 8.4 - average 0.7, 5.3 [39g]
Andrae 2.2, xGAR 4.3 - average 3.3 [20g]
Drysdale -9.2, 1.0 - average -1.4, 2.6 - average -5.3, 1.8 [34, 38g]

Now how much weight would I put on these numbers?
Don't know. But it is an interesting perspective.
What is elite? Couts in his peak seasons, averages: 11.7, 10.1, 20.2, 25.0, 13.4

 

[freakydallas13]

Tippett is an exceptional athlete, 6'1 210 and one of the fastest skaters in the NHL, with a plus shot, non-stop motor, one of the best Flyers in terms of zone entries and works hard to get back on the back check (even if he doesn't always know where he should be).

For a guy who is "totally useless," according to EH he's put up 11.2, 8.8 and 6.0 (2/3 of a season) goals above replacement the last three seasons.

average GAR and xGAR to produce a more "stable" measure, for most players, GAR should regress to xGAR
[this year is only 50g, so multiply by 1.6 to "normalize" to a full season]
Foerster 12.3, 3.7, xGAR 11.5, 8.9 - average 11.9, 6.8
Cates 10.3, 8.5, 4.8, xGAR 7.7, 11.8, 5.4 - average 9.0, 10.2, 5.1
TK 0.5, 8.6, 2.1, xGAR 1.6, 8.8, 7.2 - average 1.1, 8.7, 4.6
Tippett 11.2, 8.8, 6.0, xGAR 10.5, 7.1, 2.4 - average 10.9, 8.0, 4.2
Frost 3.7, 6.7, 6.0, xGAR 3.7, 6.1, 2.1 - average 3.7, 6.4, 4.1
Hathaway 6.5, 6.6, xGAR 8.8, 2.0 - average 7.7, 4.3
Michkov 1.4, xGAR 5.6 - average 3.5
Couts 8.7, 3.2, xGAR 3.7, 3.4 - average 6.2, 3.3
Farabee 8.7, 2.3, -1.6, xGAR 0.4, 8.3, -2.2 - average 4.6, 4.8, -1.9
Poehling 1.0, 3.2, xGAR 3.5, 1.2 - average 2.3, 2.2
Laughton -1.8, -10.9, 3.3, xGAR 1.5, -15.0, 0.9 - average -0.1, -13.0, 2.1
Brink 0.8, 2.7, xGAR 0.3, 0.9 - average 0.6, 1.8
Farabee 8.7, 2.3, -1.6, xGAR 0.4, 8.3, -2.2 - average 4.6, 4.8, -1.9

York 6.2, -0.7, 4.2, xGAR 5.2, 5.5, 8.7 - average 5.7, 2.4, 6.5
Sanheim -4.8, 3.7, 4.9, xGAR 2.0, 5.9, 3.6 - average -1.4, 4.8, 4.3
Seeler 11.8, 10.7, 5.3 - xGAR 10.7, 5.2, 2.1 - average 11.3, 8.0, 3.7
Risto 9.0, 2.1, 4.2 - xGAR 3.2, 4.4, 2.1 - average 6.1, 3.3, 3.2
Zamula 2.1, 2.1, xGAR -0.8, 8.4 - average 0.7, 5.3 [39g]
Andrae 2.2, xGAR 4.3 - average 3.3 [20g]
Drysdale -9.2, 1.0 - average -1.4, 2.6 - average -5.3, 1.8 [34, 38g]

Now how much weight would I put on these numbers?
Don't know. But it is an interesting perspective.
What is elite? Couts in his peak seasons, averages: 11.7, 10.1, 20.2, 25.0, 13.4

Justin Bailey was also an exceptional athlete who could skate with the best of them, and he was just traded for scraps. Speed alone isn't enough, you have to be good at other things too. Tippet also shoots a lot, so he puts up decent goal totals. But that's where it ends. Production wise, he's the Joffrey Lupul of the 2025 Flyers.

At some point you have to be better at something other than skating if you want to be someone you sign for 8 years. Tippet has the exact same PTS/60 frost does this season (2.1), how do you square that circle everytime you say Frost is disappointing or Tippet doesn't get the same treatment (tippet never gets punished) that Torts thinks Frost deserves (punishment you think Tippet doesn't deserve because of his "production")? Especially considering the contract each player got.

 

[deadhead]

Justin Bailey was also an exceptional athlete who could skate with the best of them, and he was just traded for scraps. Speed alone isn't enough, you have to be good at other things too. Tippet also shoots a lot, so he puts up decent goal totals. But that's where it ends. Production wise, he's the Joffrey Lupul of the 2025 Flyers.

At some point you have to be better at something other than skating if you want to be someone you sign for 8 years. Tippet has the exact same PTS/60 frost does this season (2.1), how do you square that circle everytime you say Frost is disappointing or Tippet doesn't get the same treatment (tippet never gets punished) that Torts thinks Frost deserves (punishment you think Tippet doesn't deserve because of his "production")? Especially considering the contract each player got.

See above. Those aren't my numbers. Take issue with the author if you don't like them.

 

[kudymen]

How about taking issue with how they were interpreted?

"Yo, get annoyed with Mr. Fahrenheit!"

 

[freakydallas13]

See above. Those aren't my numbers. Take issue with the author if you don't like them.

Those numbers don't change the fact Tippet is producing at the same rate Frost is? That's not an answer to my question DH.

 

[Kelmitchell2]

Those numbers don't change the fact Tippet is producing at the same rate Frost is? That's not an answer to my question DH.

You won't get an actual answer since the answer will not fit his narrative (or torts)

 

[freakydallas13]

You won't get an actual answer since the answer will not fit his narrative (or torts)

I just want a "I was wrong", is that too much to ask for?

 

[Sombastate]

I just want a "I was wrong", is that too much to ask for?

If he believes he can string words together that sound like a coherent collection of words, he will argue it. If he can't argue it, he'll ignore it. Its happened on this very page. It happens on every page

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I just want a "I was wrong", is that too much to ask for?

GL with that... Beefs been waiting for years

 

[MJL66]

Tippett is an exceptional athlete, 6'1 210 and one of the fastest skaters in the NHL, with a plus shot, non-stop motor, one of the best Flyers in terms of zone entries and works hard to get back on the back check (even if he doesn't always know where he should be).

For a guy who is "totally useless," according to EH he's put up 11.2, 8.8 and 6.0 (2/3 of a season) goals above replacement the last three seasons.

average GAR and xGAR to produce a more "stable" measure, for most players, GAR should regress to xGAR
[this year is only 50g, so multiply by 1.6 to "normalize" to a full season]
Foerster 12.3, 3.7, xGAR 11.5, 8.9 - average 11.9, 6.8
Cates 10.3, 8.5, 4.8, xGAR 7.7, 11.8, 5.4 - average 9.0, 10.2, 5.1
TK 0.5, 8.6, 2.1, xGAR 1.6, 8.8, 7.2 - average 1.1, 8.7, 4.6
Tippett 11.2, 8.8, 6.0, xGAR 10.5, 7.1, 2.4 - average 10.9, 8.0, 4.2
Frost 3.7, 6.7, 6.0, xGAR 3.7, 6.1, 2.1 - average 3.7, 6.4, 4.1
Hathaway 6.5, 6.6, xGAR 8.8, 2.0 - average 7.7, 4.3
Michkov 1.4, xGAR 5.6 - average 3.5
Couts 8.7, 3.2, xGAR 3.7, 3.4 - average 6.2, 3.3
Poehling 1.0, 3.2, xGAR 3.5, 1.2 - average 2.3, 2.2
Laughton -1.8, -10.9, 3.3, xGAR 1.5, -15.0, 0.9 - average -0.1, -13.0, 2.1
Brink 0.8, 2.7, xGAR 0.3, 0.9 - average 0.6, 1.8
Farabee 8.7, 2.3, -1.6, xGAR 0.4, 8.3, -2.2 - average 4.6, 4.8, -1.9

York 6.2, -0.7, 4.2, xGAR 5.2, 5.5, 8.7 - average 5.7, 2.4, 6.5
Sanheim -4.8, 3.7, 4.9, xGAR 2.0, 5.9, 3.6 - average -1.4, 4.8, 4.3
Seeler 11.8, 10.7, 5.3 - xGAR 10.7, 5.2, 2.1 - average 11.3, 8.0, 3.7
Risto 9.0, 2.1, 4.2 - xGAR 3.2, 4.4, 2.1 - average 6.1, 3.3, 3.2
Zamula 2.1, 2.1, xGAR -0.8, 8.4 - average 0.7, 5.3 [39g]
Andrae 2.2, xGAR 4.3 - average 3.3 [20g]
Drysdale -9.2, 1.0 - average -1.4, 2.6 - average -5.3, 1.8 [34, 38g]

Now how much weight would I put on these numbers?
Don't know. But it is an interesting perspective.
What is elite? Couts in his peak seasons, averages: 11.7, 10.1, 20.2, 25.0, 13.4

Tippett is a good goal scorer but brings little else to the table. His hockey sense in the dumpster. He's a pretty dumb hockey player. Look at what his did in the recent game against the Isles on the Brock Nelson goal. Signing him to an 8 year deal was a mistake.

 

[deadhead]

Somehow Tippett manages to generate goals above replacement.

Now different sites probably have different measures, but find me one that suggests Tippett is a bottom six forward, barely above replacement value.

 

[VladDrag]

The EH gar/xgar numbers basically say that Tippett is a good middle-6/secondary scoring winger. He's a fine player, and does a lot to help his team win.

The 'problem' is that the team committed 8-years to decent, but not great player.

 

[deadhead]

The EH gar/xgar numbers basically say that Tippett is a good middle-6/secondary scoring winger. He's a fine player, and does a lot to help his team win.

The 'problem' is that the team committed 8-years to decent, but not great player.

Except $6M is going to look like a bargain as the cap rises to $97M.
6.2% of $80M is about $4.9M, compare to what they paid for JVR, for example.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Still not a JVR contract comparable. Never will be. Nor should you compare 5 and 8 year AAVs as if they’re both apples.

Doubly so when you know the point of that contract was to pay a higher AAV to keep the term down. They’re complete opposites in that way. “Well this contract is better per year because they tried to maximize that aspect of the contract.” Yep. So you should probably comp it to others that tried to do that’s the lense you want to use.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Cap savings over time only really matter if the team is good at leveraging that space efficiently.

 

[Magua]

One of the most important things for a rebuilding team is optionality. Signing a relatively capped 50 point player to an 8 year contract — even on okay-ish salary — leaves no options. That contract is all yours and has very little trade value. On a team like this, very few players should have that level of safety.

Now, if you want to bet on a 2nd contract, like Utah and Guenther, I understand that. But Keith Jones gushes over bridge deals. Forgive me if I roll my eyes at the cap hit argument for the Flyers. They want certainty more than anything, and they will overpay and overcommit for it. It’s the mentality of a perma-bubble team.