2024-25 Roster Thread #2: Midseasonnar

[Illini Flyer]

This is Hextall's 2016-17 team after two drafts:

G (29), Voracek (27), Simmonds (28), Couts (24), Schenn (25), Filppula (32), TK (19), Read (30), Raffl (28) PEB (31), Weise (28), Cousins (23), VdV (29)
Provorov (20), AMac (30), Ghost (23), MDZ (26), Gudas (26), Manning (26)
Mason (28), Neuvirth (28)

top prospects: Laughton (22), Myers (20), Rubtsov (18), Sanheim (20), Morin (21), Hagg (21), Weal (22), Stolarz (23), Hart (18), Lindblom (20), Lyon (24)

That team ended up with 88 points, GF/GA goalie adjusted: 212/208.
They weren't good enough to compete, and only 6 starters 25 and under.

So Hextall trades Schenn for two 1st rd picks, trades Cousins for a 5th, lets MDZ walk, replaces Mason with Elliott.
Patrick, Weal, Laughton, Hagg, start the next season.
Team ended up with 98 points, GF/GA goalie adjusted: 249/225.

So he signs JVR.
Next season, 82 points, GF/GA goalie adjusted: 241/254.

 

[Magua]

This is:
-beyond the top 50 scope you set (but not by TOO much)
-several regimes ago
-several years older than your earliest example

But they also took Goulbourne right before Bjorkstrand in 2013

Good thing Holmgren has absolutely nothing to do with Briere.

We know Fletcher + Flahr were big fit pick believers too. They blew up their board to select a goalie before Kaprizov because they needed a goalie, even with Kaprizov "by far and away the highest skater on [their] list." Funniest possible outcome would’ve been him getting scooped before their 5th rounder.

If the Flyers were god tier at making amateur evaluations, they’d still have rancid drafting philosophies. Fortunately, they suck at both while admiring their own genius. So, they can continue to focus on the important stuff: pathetically soiling their pants at Team Canada not valuing their little angels.

 

[FLYguy3911]

If you throw enough numbers in your post, the content doesn't matter.

Are you seeing how much better the 200 ft game is in group 2 though?

Actually I didn't because Team Canada didn't use them properly.

 

[trostol]

I think I've lost track of the argument lol

 

[DancingPanther]

I think I've lost track of the argument lol

I can't see it, so I can't help

 

[DancingPanther]

Personally, I’m not quite convinced. But I think a lineup with every affiliated prospect that has yet to be eaten by a hippopotamus penciled into a 2028 roster might push me over the edge.

Desnoyers should be getting the call soon. I remember when he was written in sharpie for the 2nd line. That was before ignore list introduction

 

[deadhead]

View attachment 965590

What Briere is doing isn't what Hextall did.

Hextall had a team that was in between rebuilding and competing, and he basically sat on his hands and didn't move to blow it up or try to win now. His team lacked a core of young talent, and its best players were at the end of their peak years.

Fletcher took Hextall's team and by making win now moves squeezed out one good season, and if COVID doesn't happen, maybe a second. But the window was already closing.

Briere inherited a young team and made it younger, accumulated draft picks like Hextall, but has done it over three drafts (2023-2025) where Hextall split up his picks, 2014-2015, then 2017-2018.

So instead of 6 starters 25 and under, they have 11. As they age out, there are (5) 1st rd picks behind them.

 

[BernieParent]

They've committed to youth, to tank, they'd have to strip the roster and wouldn't be competitive until 2030 or later - it takes that long to rebuild through tanking if you strip a roster down to the studs. Anaheim has picked in the top 10 for six years and still suck despite a top young goalie. Chicago is in their 4th year of tankdom. San Jose in their 5th year. And so on.

Reason it takes so long is you have to be incredibly lucky with a tank (NJ landing #1 twice) and have the right players on board the years you tank. Then you have to wait for those players to develop, and surround them with other young talent. So unless you're both extremely lucky and make no mistakes, you're going to have wasted years. So to get 3 top players, you might have to pick in the top 5 for 5 or 6 drafts.

Take Chicago:
2004: Barker #3, 2005: Skille #7, 2006: Toews #3, 2007: Kane #1, made the POs in 2008, SC in 2009.
That's probably the fastest exit from a tank or record.
Pitt:
1984: Lemieux #1, 1985: Simpson #2, 1986: Zalapski #4, 1987: Joseph #5, 1988: Shannon #4, 1990: Jagr #5, won the Cup 1990, 1991.
2002: Whitney #5, 2003: Fleury #1, 2004: Malkin #2, 2005: Crosby #1, 2006: Staal #2, won the Cup in 2008.

Now what are the odds that a tank will end up with you getting Lemieux/Jagr or Fleury/Malkin/Crosby?
With the lottery, slim and none.

Edmonton
2010: Hall #1, 2011: RNH #1, 2012: Yakupov #1, 2013: Nurse #7, 2014: Draisaitl #3, 2015: McDavid #1, 2016: Puljijari #4, 2018: Bouchard #10, 2019: Broberg #8
13 years to lose in the SC Finals!

Philadelphia Flyers:

2023: Michkov #7, 2022: Gauthier #5 (traded), 2017: Patrick #2, 2015: Provorov #7, 2011: Couturier #8, 2007: Van Riemsdyk #2, 2002: Pitkanen #4, 1992: Sittler #7, 1991: Forsberg #6 (traded), 1990: Ricci #4, 1982: Sutter #4, 1978: Wilson #6, Linseman #7, 1975: Bridgman #1, haven't won the Cup since.

It is crazy that you talk about wasted years, dead, with the Flyers on a 4-year streak of missing the playoffs. They have made the playoffs 3 times in the past 10 years, with their only series win against a team that finished 24th overall. These are the epitome of wasted years. And despite your heroic deflections, the FO seems to be growing more determined to follow a strategy of minimizing their own success for lucking into a top line/pairing player. Their path to a Stanley Cup is so ridiculously improbable, Hallmark Christmas movie writers would ridicule its plausibility.

This is a mediocre team with a ceiling of good. Their prospect pool is ranked 18th in a 32-team league. They have 2 players who would fit on the top line of most other teams and the trajectory of the others is very limited. Their two top prospects are projected as a 3-5 defenseman (Bonk) and a middle-6 C (Luchanko). And the GM likes this team so much that he doesn't want to trade anyone unless the overpay compels him to, which is backed up by his (in)action of the past.

The car is up on blocks and the head mechanic is reinforcing the bumpers.

 

[BiggE]

There is ZERO chance that the current organization can build a contender. They don’t draft particularly well and they are terrible at talent development. They don’t hire good coaches or GMs and are resistant to changing their way of doing business.

Their only chance of coming close to a Cup is having massive lottery luck coupled with one of their goaltending prospects turn into a stud #1 goalie.

Good luck with that.

 

[MJL66]

Because they're not tanking. You can whine about it until you're blue in the face, and it's not changing.
That ship sailed in the summer of 2019.

They've got a lot of solid young players, they don't have a lot of star power, but neither does anyone else outside of Edmonton, NJ and Toronto. Toronto hasn't got out of the second round and NJ has made the playoffs once with a 2nd rd exit so far. Otherwise we're talking teams with a couple top picks and otherwise players they developed or obtained in trades. Which is what the Flyer are going to have to do.

Since they put the Brink line together they're 2nd in scoring at ES. 27 games now, pretty large sample.
So I guess offense isn't quite the problem as advertised. Despite no "star." Michkov still 2 years away.
(Unless you count TK, but he was a #24 pick, so obviously isn't for real.)
If the Frost and Couts lines start to jell, they should be able to sustain this pace.
When Ersson plays well, they win. 5-0-1 their last six games with solid goaltending.
Still need to fix STs.

I think the NHL should only count the standings since the Brink line was put together.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

What Briere is doing isn't what Hextall did.

Hextall had a team that was in between rebuilding and competing, and he basically sat on his hands and didn't move to blow it up or try to win now. His team lacked a core of young talent, and its best players were at the end of their peak years.

Fletcher took Hextall's team and by making win now moves squeezed out one good season, and if COVID doesn't happen, maybe a second. But the window was already closing.

Briere inherited a young team and made it younger, accumulated draft picks like Hextall, but has done it over three drafts (2023-2025) where Hextall split up his picks, 2014-2015, then 2017-2018.

So instead of 6 starters 25 and under, they have 11. As they age out, there are (5) 1st rd picks behind them.

Sure sounds like the current team to anyone that doesn’t need to defend the team at every turn.

 

[deadhead]

Philadelphia Flyers:

2023: Michkov #7, 2022: Gauthier #5 (traded), 2017: Patrick #2, 2015: Provorov #7, 2011: Couturier #8, 2007: Van Riemsdyk #2, 2002: Pitkanen #4, 1992: Sittler #7, 1991: Forsberg #6 (traded), 1990: Ricci #4, 1982: Sutter #4, 1978: Wilson #6, Linseman #7, 1975: Bridgman #1, haven't won the Cup since.

It is crazy that you talk about wasted years, dead, with the Flyers on a 4-year streak of missing the playoffs. They have made the playoffs 3 times in the past 10 years, with their only series win against a team that finished 24th overall. These are the epitome of wasted years. And despite your heroic deflections, the FO seems to be growing more determined to follow a strategy of minimizing their own success for lucking into a top line/pairing player. Their path to a Stanley Cup is so ridiculously improbable, Hallmark Christmas movie writers would ridicule its plausibility.

This is a mediocre team with a ceiling of good. Their prospect pool is ranked 18th in a 32-team league. They have 2 players who would fit on the top line of most other teams and the trajectory of the others is very limited. Their two top prospects are projected as a 3-5 defenseman (Bonk) and a middle-6 C (Luchanko). And the GM likes this team so much that he doesn't want to trade anyone unless the overpay compels him to, which is backed up by his (in)action of the past.

The car is up on blocks and the head mechanic is reinforcing the bumpers.

I've shown the reason for futility, they lacked patience and resorted to patch and pray.
Holmgren after the Richards trade, Hextall left them in limbo, CF tried to win now.
Until Torts exposed the naked Emperor, they refused to commit to rebuilding.

And yes it's a rebuild, maybe not the way some here would like, but when you have 11 starters 25 and under, and you accumulate (6) 1st and 2nd rd picks, that's a rebuild.
7 of 9 "top 9" forwards are 25 and under
2 of 4 "top 4" D-men are 25 and under
starting goaltender

They can fill out a lineup card with competent players, Hathaway as their 12th forward is still a legitimate NHL player, same with Seeler at #6 D-man.
Now they need to start upgrading.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I've shown the reason for futility, they lacked patience and resorted to patch and pray.
Holmgren after the Richards trade, Hextall left them in limbo, CF tried to win now.
Until Torts exposed the naked Emperor, they refused to commit to rebuilding.

And yes it's a rebuild, maybe not the way some here would like, but when you have 11 starters 25 and under, and you accumulate (6) 1st and 2nd rd picks, that's a rebuild.
7 of 9 "top 9" forwards are 25 and under
2 of 4 "top 4" D-men are 25 and under
starting goaltender

They can fill out a lineup card with competent players, Hathaway as their 12th forward is still a legitimate NHL player, same with Seeler at #6 D-man.
Now they need to start upgrading.

THEY ARE CURRENTLY RESORTING TO PATCH AND PRAY.

 

[BiggE]

Our best long term hope is continued failure. Miss the playoffs this season, and in 26, and in 27. Comcast is looking to build a new stadium by 2031 and 7 years out of the playoffs should cause attendance and revenue to drop.

That is the only way Comcast might, key word might, be willing to utterly clean house and bring in a new PoHo from outside the organization to put a new team with a new philosophy in place.

I've shown the reason for futility, they lacked patience and resorted to patch and pray.
Holmgren after the Richards trade, Hextall left them in limbo, CF tried to win now.
Until Torts exposed the naked Emperor, they refused to commit to rebuilding.

And yes it's a rebuild, maybe not the way some here would like, but when you have 11 starters 25 and under, and you accumulate (6) 1st and 2nd rd picks, that's a rebuild.
7 of 9 "top 9" forwards are 25 and under
2 of 4 "top 4" D-men are 25 and under
starting goaltender

They can fill out a lineup card with competent players, Hathaway as their 12th forward is still a legitimate NHL player, same with Seeler at #6 D-man.
Now they need to start upgrading.

11 starters 25 or under is meaningless when only one of them has potential to be an impact player. Especially when the prospect group contains zero potential top line forwards or first pair D.

At this point, your arguments have gone from pathetic to comical.

 

[Curufinwe]

The central argument in the Flyers building a contender is you don’t need top 3-5 picks to find stars. Everyone agrees that it can be done; it’s just exponentially harder. Forget once a generation finding Mark Stone in the 6th round. High value top ~50 picks. With the exception of Michkov falling into their laps, the Flyers have directly passed on a star (or star potential) player nearly every class, no hindsight needed — we had these guys top of the board. Which one of these groups, if added/swapped in the current roster, could yield a low end contender, with a key trade or two?

1) Robertson - (5th OV value) - Boldy
Perreault - Stankoven - Stiga

L. Hutson - Buium

2) Ratcliffe - Luchanko - Tuomaala
Berglund

York - Drysdale
Bonk - Gill

There is no reason to believe the Flyers can build a contender with how they draft because they draft as if they’re refuting their own thesis. That’s why certain disingenuous people have shifted gears to saying they’re basically a contender already, minus a goalie and more 3rd line/pair depth.

Not that they would have taken him there in a million years, but it's particularly galling that they could have got Hutson with the #36th overall in 2022. The pick Fletcher sent to Arizona with Ghost.

https://puckpedia.com/trade/416

Typical Flyers to finish with the 4th worst record, and possibly the only NHL player they got out of that draft is Jamie Drysdale.

Elite Prospects - NHL Entry Draft 2022

NHL Entry Draft 2022 - full list of selections with facts and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[deadhead]

Our best long term hope is continued failure. Miss the playoffs this season, and in 26, and in 27. Comcast is looking to build a new stadium by 2031 and 7 years out of the playoffs should cause attendance and revenue to drop.

That is the only way Comcast might, key word might, be willing to utterly clean house and bring in a new PoHo from outside the organization to put a new team with a new philosophy in place.


11 starters 25 or under is meaningless when only one of them has potential to be an impact player. Especially when the prospect group contains zero potential top line forwards or first pair D.

At this point, your arguments have gone from pathetic to comical.

It's a team game. They're playing very well as a team.
Just need to continue building on their run, let the lines develop chemistry.
The defensive pairs are working fine.

EH ES scoring
TK 31 (12)
Tippett 20 (t84)
MIchkov 19 (t97)
Laughton 19 (t97)
Couts 19 (t97)
Brink 18 (t104)

Frost 16 (t165)
Foerster 16 (t165)
Cates 16 (t165)
Poehling 15 (t175)
Hathway 14 (t190)
Farabee 13 (t211)

 

[dragonoffrost]

I've shown the reason for futility, they lacked patience and resorted to patch and pray.
Holmgren after the Richards trade, Hextall left them in limbo, CF tried to win now.
Until Torts exposed the naked Emperor, they refused to commit to rebuilding.

And yes it's a rebuild, maybe not the way some here would like, but when you have 11 starters 25 and under, and you accumulate (6) 1st and 2nd rd picks, that's a rebuild.
7 of 9 "top 9" forwards are 25 and under
2 of 4 "top 4" D-men are 25 and under
starting goaltender

They can fill out a lineup card with competent players, Hathaway as their 12th forward is still a legitimate NHL player, same with Seeler at #6 D-man.
Now they need to start upgrading.

You can have a young team all you want in numbers but as long as the development staff hasn't changed we are still stuck with the level of development we've had for decades.

 

[BillDineen]

Don't usually watch him, but this rant made me laugh

 

[FLYguy3911]

Desnoyers should be getting the call soon. I remember when he was written in sharpie for the 2nd line. That was before ignore list introduction

He you seen his xGF-GF/60 at ES in weekday games that start at 7:37 PM since November?

Don't usually watch him, but this rant made me laugh

Wait this guy has a standalone show?

Also looks like he stole Pat McAfee's graphics.

 

[deadhead]

The development staff is fine - look at the performance on ice.
The only disappointment this season is Farabee, and he seems to be shaking off his funk.
A number of young players have taken a step up, and even the scrubs out of LHV have played solid when called up.
The only high draft pick since 2019 to come up short is Tuomaala, who can score but is a bit clueless.
York, Brink, Foerster, Andrae.
Drysdale is starting to show that the trade might end up a wash. He's improved at a high rate.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

Not that they would have taken him there in a million years, but it's particularly galling that they could have got Hutson with the #36th overall in 2022. The pick Fletcher sent to Arizona with Ghost.

Same with Hutson the younger at 32 this past year. But your assessment is accurate. If Buium was too smurfy to join Drysdale and Andrae, no shot in hell they'd have ever picked a Hutson.

 

[Beef Invictus]

What Briere is doing isn't what Hextall did.

Hextall had a team that was in between rebuilding and competing, and he basically sat on his hands and didn't move to blow it up or try to win now. His team lacked a core of young talent, and its best players were at the end of their peak years.

Fletcher took Hextall's team and by making win now moves squeezed out one good season, and if COVID doesn't happen, maybe a second. But the window was already closing.

Briere inherited a young team and made it younger, accumulated draft picks like Hextall, but has done it over three drafts (2023-2025) where Hextall split up his picks, 2014-2015, then 2017-2018.

So instead of 6 starters 25 and under, they have 11. As they age out, there are (5) 1st rd picks behind them.

Sounds like Hextall. Neither in nor out. Identical. If Briere had also inherited the devoid prospect pool Hextall had, his team would be older.

You're just saying random things with zero context at this point. Hoping anything sticks. There's no other way to defend their process legitimately so you're just throwing dung at the tree to see if the bear falls.

 

[Curufinwe]

Buium doesn't even seem small to me. He's a similar size to Brian Leetch.

 

[iceman42]

I think we give them way to much credit in these hypothetical situations like picking Hutson rather then using the pick to help trade away a version of Hutson. I mean we just saw them pass on Hutson 2.0 to take Scott Laughton 2.0.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Don't usually watch him, but this rant made me laugh

Don't think I've ever heard Russ yell this much .