2024-25 Roster Thread #2: Midseasonnar

[Illini Flyer]

This is Hextall's 2016-17 team after two drafts:

G (29), Voracek (27), Simmonds (28), Couts (24), Schenn (25), Filppula (32), TK (19), Read (30), Raffl (28) PEB (31), Weise (28), Cousins (23), VdV (29)
Provorov (20), AMac (30), Ghost (23), MDZ (26), Gudas (26), Manning (26)
Mason (28), Neuvirth (28)

top prospects: Laughton (22), Myers (20), Rubtsov (18), Sanheim (20), Morin (21), Hagg (21), Weal (22), Stolarz (23), Hart (18), Lindblom (20), Lyon (24)

That team ended up with 88 points, GF/GA goalie adjusted: 212/208.
They weren't good enough to compete, and only 6 starters 25 and under.

So Hextall trades Schenn for two 1st rd picks, trades Cousins for a 5th, lets MDZ walk, replaces Mason with Elliott.
Patrick, Weal, Laughton, Hagg, start the next season.
Team ended up with 98 points, GF/GA goalie adjusted: 249/225.

So he signs JVR.
Next season, 82 points, GF/GA goalie adjusted: 241/254.

 

[Magua]

This is:
-beyond the top 50 scope you set (but not by TOO much)
-several regimes ago
-several years older than your earliest example

But they also took Goulbourne right before Bjorkstrand in 2013

Good thing Holmgren has absolutely nothing to do with Briere.

We know Fletcher + Flahr were big fit pick believers too. They blew up their board to select a goalie before Kaprizov because they needed a goalie, even with Kaprizov "by far and away the highest skater on [their] list." Funniest possible outcome would’ve been him getting scooped before their 5th rounder.

If the Flyers were god tier at making amateur evaluations, they’d still have rancid drafting philosophies. Fortunately, they suck at both while admiring their own genius. So, they can continue to focus on the important stuff: pathetically soiling their pants at Team Canada not valuing their little angels.

 

[FLYguy3911]

If you throw enough numbers in your post, the content doesn't matter.

Are you seeing how much better the 200 ft game is in group 2 though?

Actually I didn't because Team Canada didn't use them properly.

 

[trostol]

I think I've lost track of the argument lol

 

[DancingPanther]

I think I've lost track of the argument lol

I can't see it, so I can't help

 

[DancingPanther]

Personally, I’m not quite convinced. But I think a lineup with every affiliated prospect that has yet to be eaten by a hippopotamus penciled into a 2028 roster might push me over the edge.

Desnoyers should be getting the call soon. I remember when he was written in sharpie for the 2nd line. That was before ignore list introduction

 

[deadhead]

View attachment 965590

What Briere is doing isn't what Hextall did.

Hextall had a team that was in between rebuilding and competing, and he basically sat on his hands and didn't move to blow it up or try to win now. His team lacked a core of young talent, and its best players were at the end of their peak years.

Fletcher took Hextall's team and by making win now moves squeezed out one good season, and if COVID doesn't happen, maybe a second. But the window was already closing.

Briere inherited a young team and made it younger, accumulated draft picks like Hextall, but has done it over three drafts (2023-2025) where Hextall split up his picks, 2014-2015, then 2017-2018.

So instead of 6 starters 25 and under, they have 11. As they age out, there are (5) 1st rd picks behind them.

 

[BernieParent]

They've committed to youth, to tank, they'd have to strip the roster and wouldn't be competitive until 2030 or later - it takes that long to rebuild through tanking if you strip a roster down to the studs. Anaheim has picked in the top 10 for six years and still suck despite a top young goalie. Chicago is in their 4th year of tankdom. San Jose in their 5th year. And so on.

Reason it takes so long is you have to be incredibly lucky with a tank (NJ landing #1 twice) and have the right players on board the years you tank. Then you have to wait for those players to develop, and surround them with other young talent. So unless you're both extremely lucky and make no mistakes, you're going to have wasted years. So to get 3 top players, you might have to pick in the top 5 for 5 or 6 drafts.

Take Chicago:
2004: Barker #3, 2005: Skille #7, 2006: Toews #3, 2007: Kane #1, made the POs in 2008, SC in 2009.
That's probably the fastest exit from a tank or record.
Pitt:
1984: Lemieux #1, 1985: Simpson #2, 1986: Zalapski #4, 1987: Joseph #5, 1988: Shannon #4, 1990: Jagr #5, won the Cup 1990, 1991.
2002: Whitney #5, 2003: Fleury #1, 2004: Malkin #2, 2005: Crosby #1, 2006: Staal #2, won the Cup in 2008.

Now what are the odds that a tank will end up with you getting Lemieux/Jagr or Fleury/Malkin/Crosby?
With the lottery, slim and none.

Edmonton
2010: Hall #1, 2011: RNH #1, 2012: Yakupov #1, 2013: Nurse #7, 2014: Draisaitl #3, 2015: McDavid #1, 2016: Puljijari #4, 2018: Bouchard #10, 2019: Broberg #8
13 years to lose in the SC Finals!

Philadelphia Flyers:

2023: Michkov #7, 2022: Gauthier #5 (traded), 2017: Patrick #2, 2015: Provorov #7, 2011: Couturier #8, 2007: Van Riemsdyk #2, 2002: Pitkanen #4, 1992: Sittler #7, 1991: Forsberg #6 (traded), 1990: Ricci #4, 1982: Sutter #4, 1978: Wilson #6, Linseman #7, 1975: Bridgman #1, haven't won the Cup since.

It is crazy that you talk about wasted years, dead, with the Flyers on a 4-year streak of missing the playoffs. They have made the playoffs 3 times in the past 10 years, with their only series win against a team that finished 24th overall. These are the epitome of wasted years. And despite your heroic deflections, the FO seems to be growing more determined to follow a strategy of minimizing their own success for lucking into a top line/pairing player. Their path to a Stanley Cup is so ridiculously improbable, Hallmark Christmas movie writers would ridicule its plausibility.

This is a mediocre team with a ceiling of good. Their prospect pool is ranked 18th in a 32-team league. They have 2 players who would fit on the top line of most other teams and the trajectory of the others is very limited. Their two top prospects are projected as a 3-5 defenseman (Bonk) and a middle-6 C (Luchanko). And the GM likes this team so much that he doesn't want to trade anyone unless the overpay compels him to, which is backed up by his (in)action of the past.

The car is up on blocks and the head mechanic is reinforcing the bumpers.